We
previously discussed why you should wait until your very last pick (or only
spend $1 in an auction) on a kicker. Now, I’m here to tell you why you should
wait to pick a fantasy defense until your second to last pick.
The scoring
potential of a fantasy defense is dependant on the format of your league, but
my logic for picking one isn’t impacted by scoring. Here’s our thesis…
A fantasy
defense’s scoring output is driven more by the quality of the opposing offense.
With the rules of the game the way they are today,
good offenses are more often than not going to score on good defenses. Just
look at what the Patriots did in the Super Bowl to Seattle last February. I’d
much rather own a defense that’s going up against one of the worst offenses
every week (if that isn’t a Troy Aikman-esque observation, I don’t know what
is).
Putting that theory to test, let’s look at whom the teams
that were the five worst offenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE play during
weeks 14 through 16 of the NFL season (those are the weeks of the fantasy
playoffs, depending on your league setup). With each team listed, we’ll list
the pre-season fantasy rank (as generated by Yahoo) of each defense they face.
Of this group, the Patriots and Saints are the only teams
that appear twice. New Orleans has a good chance of being a car fire this
season, but wouldn’t you like their chances against Famous Jameis and Blake
Bortles? You’ll be able to scoop them up off of the waiver wire at some point
in November. The Patriots would be my ideal defense that I would hope to have
fall into the second to last round, as their pathetic division opponents
coupled with their relatively easy fantasy playoff slate (their week 14
opponent is Houston, who might be playing J.J. Watt at quarterback by the time
they meet in December) set up nicely.
To summarize…don’t over value fantasy defenses
(translation: don’t use your sixth round pick on the Seahawks defense), and be
prepared to work the waiver wire.
We've been slammed at work this week, and don't have the time or energy to offer any extended thoughts on the NFL. However, we still have to do our civic duty and post an "official" pick for the Dallas Cowboys game.
Jaguars (+7.5) over Cowboys
Let's just say that if Dallas is truly destined to finish 8-8 again after a 6-1 start, losing this game is a must.
Thankfully, we finally fell under .500 last week, so we're taking the rest of the season off from making picks based off point spreads. Well, except for one game a week.
Washington (+10) over COWBOYS We've picked against my Dallas Cowboys every week of the NFL season, and I firmly believe that's the reason they are 6-1. So even if there are no other picks in this space, we'll always post a Cowboys pick.
As for the rest of the slate, we'll post some thoughts, predictions, or facts that have no relevance to actual games. Enjoy.
I'm Glad I'll Be Working During the Falcons-Lions Game Tomorrow Morning You know who else is? My wife. Seriously NFL, you've already pissed off enough women this year. Let's try not to make football last for 15 consecutive hours.
What Do You Get With No Steroids in Baseball? The Worst World Series Ever
The Royals and Giants are dog shit. If either club played the '98 Yankees 10 times, they'd be lucky to win twice.
The Saints Shouldn't Be Favored Against Aaron Rodgers
Yet incredibly, the line is still SAINTS (-2) as of the time of this writing.
Let's Keep Running DeMarco Murray Into the Ground
He's a free agent after the year anyway. With as good as the offensive line is, it doesn't matter who is toting the rock for the Cowboys.
Denver Might Be the Only Super Bowl Caliber Team in the League Seattle and San Francisco still have time to turn it around (the 49ers will get a lot of dudes back on defense during the second half of the season), but for now it's Denver and then everyone else. Since the advent of the weekly Thursday night game, we haven't seen a better two win in five day stretch like the Broncos just pulled against San Francisco and the Chargers.
We're Happy Bob is Getting Eaten on "The Walking Dead" It's not an endorsement of cannibalism, but I really hate Bob, and thought he should've died sometime last season.
Detroit and Cincinnati Are Lurking Both clubs are missing elite wide receivers, and should return to previous offensive production upon their return.
Jacksonville is Our Underdog Pick of the Week This pick has more to do with how frustrating the Dolphins have been over the last few years than an endorsement of the Jaguars.
I'd post more, but I have to go to work in six hours. Until next time...
High Quality Players = None Solid Contributors = WR Cecil Shorts, DE Red Bryant,
DE Chris Clemons, CB Alan Ball, CB Will Blackmon Impact Rookies = QB Blake Bortles (1-3, UCF), WR
Marqise Lee (2-39, USC)
Good News = Jacksonville mercifully put an end to the
Blaine Gabbert era.
Bad News = They are the Philadelphia 76ers of the
NFL.
Outlook = The bar has been set so low over the past
few years that merely being competitive in 75% of their games should be a
reasonable goal in 2014. Jacksonville did finish 4-4 to finish 2013, so there
is some reason for optimism. Barring injury, Blake Bortles should not see the
field until midseason, which leaves the offense in the hands of Chad “Garbage
Time Yards” Henne. New weapons were brought in which should make life easier
for whoever is under center. Toby Gerhart comes to down for his first crack at
being a full-time starter, and it’s possible he leads the league in total
carries. Rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson should provide support to Cecil
Shorts, and eventually develop into a solid duo for Bortles. The play of the
offensive line largely hinges on the development of second year pro Luke
Joeckel. Joeckel was abysmal at right tackle before breaking his leg last year,
and is now making the transition to the left side.
Defensively,
Coach Gus Bradley is in the infant stages of building a defensive unit similar
to what he had in Seattle. Red Bryant and Chris Clemons are former Seahawks who
will provide leadership on the defensive line. There weren’t many personal
moves to bolster the back seven, but with development from their younger
players, it’s reasonable to expect some improvement. Prediction = They aren’t going to be that good, but I
don’t think Jacksonville is worried about that for another year. 4-12
3. Tennessee Titans
2013 Record = 7-9, Second in AFC South, Missed
Playoffs 2014 Schedule = @ Chiefs, Cowboys, @ Bengals, @
Colts, Browns, Jaguars, @ Redskins, Texans, BYE, @ Ravens, Steelers, @ Eagles,
@ Texans, Giants, Jets, @ Jaguars, Colts
Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = WR Kendall Wright, LT Michael
Roos, DT Jurrell Casey Solid Contributors = WR Nate Washington, TE Delanie
Walker, LG Andy Levitre, DT Sammie Hill, DE/OLB Derrick Morgan, CB Jason
McCourty, SS Bernard “Patriot Killer” Pollard Impact Rookies = RT Taylor Lewan (1-11, Michigan), HB
Bishop Sankey (2-54, Washington)
Good News = Tennessee has some sneaky young talent
that is ready to blossom.
Outlook = Tennessee has assembled an
exciting group of skill players, but we’re not sure Jake Locker is the guy to
take advantage of it. Kendall Wright was a PPR monster, racking up 94 receptions
in 2013. He’s not explosive (only two touchdowns), but he moves the chains.
Justin Hunter has the skills to bring big plays to the Titans’ passing game,
and is a popular choice to breakout this season. Nate Washington is also still
around to provide some veteran leadership. The offensive line showed some
improvement after major changes last season, as this year that unit should pay
major dividends. A jump in production by sophomore Chance Warmack coupled with
rookie Taylor Lewan should stabilize the right side of the line. This will go a
long way in helping an offense that will not have the services of Chris
Johnson. Rookie Bishop Sankey is first in line for carries. Sankey is a good
enough receiver to be a three-down back. All of this adds up to the best
supporting cast Jake Locker has had in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. He still
has first round talent, but needs to stay on the field.
Other
than Locker, the other issue that will hold Tennessee back is their defense
switching to a 3-4. Much like Philadelphia last year, the Titans don’t have the
ideal players to make this switch. Derrick Morgan, who is a solid 4-3 end, is
virtually useless, and it would be wise management to try to trade him before
the season. The loss of CB Alterraun Verner is a huge issue, as there will be a
massive drop in talent in the secondary. Prediction = We’re not buying into the Titans anymore
(we learned our lesson last year) until we can see Jake Locker play at least 12
games. 6-10
2. Houston Texans
2013 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South, Missed
Playoffs 2014 Schedule = Redskins, @ Raiders, @
Giants, Bills, @ Cowboys, Colts, @ Steelers, @ Titans, Eagles, BYE, @ Browns,
Bengals, Titans, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars
Blue Chippers = WR Andre Johnson, DE J.J. Watt
High Quality Players = None Solid Contributors = HB Arian Foster, LT Duane Brown,
C Chris Myers, RG Brandon Brooks, MLB Brian Cushing, CB Johnathan Joseph, SS
Chris Clemons Impact Rookies = DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney (1-1, South
Carolina), Xavier Su’a-Filo (2-33, UCLA), Louis Nix III (3-83, Notre Dame)
Good News = They can’t be any worse than they were
last year.
Bad News = Houston is still a quarterback away from a
full reboot.
Outlook = After putting up 22 wins and two AFC South
titles in two years, Houston followed that up by starting 2013 2-0, and then
promptly losing their final 14 games. Awful quarterback play led to an offense
that consistently turned the ball over, and despite finishing seventh in total
yards allowed, Houston’s defense generated the fewest turnovers in THE NATIONAL
FOOTBALL LEAGUE. There’s reason for optimism defensively, as the duo of J.J.
Watt and Jadeveon Clowney could quickly establish them as a deadly pass rush
combination. Third round pick Louis Nix III should also pay immediate dividends
as a Vince Wilfork-like run stuffer. Their pass defense was stingy, so with an
improved pass rush it’s realistic to think Houston can generate the amount of
turnovers they did during their division title years.
Schaub has
been sent packing, but the best Houston could do to replace him was bring in
journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine his entire
NFL career, so hopefully for Houston’s sake Arian Foster is healthy. The less
Fitzpatrick has to throw the ball, the better. Prediction = They will definitely not be the worst
team in football again, but the lack of a franchise quarterback keeps Houston
from returning to the playoffs. 8-8
1. Indianapolis Colts
2013 Record = 11-5, AFC South Champions, Lost AFC
Divisional Game 2014 Schedule = @ Broncos, Eagles, @ Jaguars, Titans,
Ravens, @ Texans, Bengals, @ Steelers, @ Giants, BYE, Patriots, Jaguars,
Redskins, @ Browns, Texans, @ Cowboys, @ Titans
Blue Chippers = DE/OLB Robert Mathis
High Quality Players = WR Reggie Wayne, WR T.Y.
Hilton, TE Dwayne Allen Solid Contributors = QB Andrew Luck, WR Hakeem Nicks,
LT Anthony Castonzo, RT Gosder Cherilius, DT Arthur Jones, DT Ricky Jean
Francois, CB Vontae Davis Impact Rookies = None
Good News = Trent Richardson can’t play any worse, right?
Bad News = A first place schedule earns them dates
with Denver and New England.
Outlook = You could make a case that no
team did more harm to itself over the past 18 months than the Colts did with
wild free agency signings and even more ridiculous trades, but Andrew Luck has
been able to overcome it. If the Colts can get the pieces in place around him,
this will be the team to beat in the AFC for the next decade. Trent Richardson
was comically awful after his mid-season arrival last year, but a year ago at
this time he was a first round pick in your fantasy draft. The receiving core
should be deeper with the signing of Hakeem Nicks (on a one year prove it deal)
and the return of Reggie Wayne (tore his ACL last October). Dwayne Allen had
his sophomore campaign wiped out by injury, and is also a welcome addition to
the passing game. Barring injury, Luck will have the best core of receivers
he’s had in his short pro career.
The Colts
employed a “bend-don’t-break” defense last year, ranking in the bottom third in
the league in total yards allowed, but in the top third in points against. You
could argue that there isn’t a defense in the league that plays as
differently depending on whether they are ahead or behind. The first four games
will be tough, as star player Robert Mathis will miss the first four weeks due
to a drug related suspension. Prediction = Not
being as lucky as they were last year in close games will be balanced out by
playing 14 of their games against teams from the three weakest divisions in
football. They aren’t elite yet, but another second round playoff appearance is
possible. 11-5
10. Jimmie Johnson On the Verge of 6th Sprint
Cup Title Unless I’m too busy playing Madden this week, we’ll
talk more about this in a couple of days.
9. Swift Kick to the Skull Earns Vitor Belfort Knockout
of Dan Henderson
Belfort
was on fire from the get-go in this one, and
has set himself up to earn a date with the winner of the Anderson Silva-Chris
Weidman rematch.
8. 17-Year Old Erik Jones Wins Truck Race at Phoenix
I’m pretty sure that when I was seventeen I was
mostly focused on finding a person of age to purchase a 30-rack of Budweiser.
Jones is the second person under 18 to win in one of
NASCAR’s top three series this year, joining Chase Elliott.
7. Spurs Demoralize New York Knicks Even though New York
hasn’t fielded a championship caliber team since I was in junior high school, I
take great pleasure in the shortcomings of their team. I guess I’m
just an asshole.
5. Jeff Green Buzzer Beater Delivers Boston Shocking Win Over Heat There won’t be a lot
of moments like this in 2013-14, so Celtics
fans should cherish this one.
Incredibly, the Lions have now swept the Bears and have a game lead over both Chicago and Green Bay.
Even better, both of their division rivals will likely be starting Josh McCown
and some guy named Scott Tolzien next week.
1. Panthers Prove They’re Legit, Win at San Francisco
Carolina demolished four inferior opponents in a row, but
grinding out a defensive struggle against
the defending NFC champs is a big deal.
10. Jaguars Put Up Two Points Against Kansas City As if there was any doubt which club I’m doing my
Madden franchise with this season (I pick the worst team), Jacksonville sealed
the deal with a turd-sandwich in their home debut.
9. Some Guy Named Yusmeiro Petit Almost Throws a Perfect
Game
7. New York Jets Gift-Wrapped Season Opening Victory Over Tampa Bay There wasn’t a more
unimpressive team in Week 1 than the pathetic Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who
ended up with third and 35 on their opening series. Josh Freeman’s days under
center are numbered.
5.Clint Bowyer Intentionally Spins Out, Removing Jeff Gordon and
Ryan Newman From The Chase
(EDITORS NOTE: The following is the paragraph I had written immediately
following the conclusion of Saturday night’s race at Richmond)
I have a confession
to make…I spun out several times in NASCAR Thunder 2000 to bring out cautions.
I don’t feel great about it, but it’s great to come clean, and at least I didn’t cost two guys a spot in the NASCAR playoffs.
That paragraph still
stands, except NASCAR showed some massive balls and penalized Michael Waltrip Racing late Monday night.
The previous link sums up the story pretty well, but I’ll say what it didn’t
say… Michael Waltrip is a cheat, a scoundrel, a scumbag, and a dumbass.
4. Cowboys Win Bizarre Season Opener Against Giants
1. Patriots Get a Push, Still Pull Out Win in Buffalo
New
England’s offense was dynamic when Danny Amendola was on the field,
and mediocre when he was off of it. They’ll be a force if they can ever get him
and Rob Gronkowski healthy at the same time.
Our third division tour takes us to the AFC South, which if I was lazy I could probably cut and paste last year's preview and pass it off as this years.
Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, LT Eugene
Monroe
Supporting Cast = WR Cecil Shorts, WR Justin Blackmon
(suspended first four games), TE Mercedes Lewis, C Brad Meester, RG Uche
Nwaneri, MLB Paul Posluszny Notable Rookies = RT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M,
1-2), SS Jonathan Cyprien (Florida International, 2-33), QB-WR Denard Robinson
(Michigan, 5-135)
Offensive Outlook = Mired by the worst quarterbacking
situation in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, it’s easy to miss that Jacksonville
has legitimate skill position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the most notable
Jaguar, and for the first time, will be able to hit unrestricted free agency
after the season (can you say potential fantasy gold in the second or third
round?). M.J.D. has the benefit of running behind one of the league’s most
underrated offensive lines. Eugene Monroe is a top-10 or 15 left tackle, and
second overall pick Luke Joeckel will solidify the right side. Cecil Shorts
came out of nowhere to deliver excellent production (regardless of which shitty
quarterback was throwing to him) before multiple concussions ended his season
early. Justin Blackmon exploded when Chad Henne entered the lineup, but thanks
to another bout of immaturity, will miss the first four games of the year. When
he returns Jacksonville will have one of the best wide receiver duo in the
league. Mercedes Lewis has never duplicated his 2010 season, but is that his
fault or the quarterbacks? Ultimately, that’s the restrictor plate (NASCAR
term) for the Jaguars offense. Blaine Gabbert has been comically awful, and at
times it looks like he’s seeing dead people in the pocket. Chad Henne is
capable of moving the offense up and down the field, but is extremely turnover
prone. For fantasy purposes, Henne at least would elevate the value of the
skill position players, but the new Jaguars management team has to see if
there’s anything worth salvaging with Gabbert (he is after all, only 23 years old).
Defensive Outlook = J.J. Watt had a historic 2012,
but it’s still inexcusable that he had a half sack more than the Jacksonville
Jaguars did. Paul Posluszny was the only steady performer on a defense that
never sniffed the quarterback, couldn’t cover receivers, and was consistently
worn down by the run. Jason Babin did provide a spark when he was claimed off
waivers four the final four weeks of 2012, and Roy Miller (who was a steady
backup for Tampa Bay) is capable of anchoring the middle of the line. Head
Coach Gus Bradley, who ran a press coverage scheme as a defensive coordinator
in Seattle, will have a hard time implementing the same system in Jacksonville.
They spent five draft picks on defensive backs, so look for the Jaguars to have
an open competition to see who can handle heavy man-coverage assignments.
Ceiling = 7-9– It sounds crazy to say there’s
a chance that Jacksonville won’t lose double-digit games (mostly because it
is), but if you get the combination of a 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque season by
Chad Henne and a massive contract season by Maurice Jones-Drew, it could
happen.
Floor = 1-15 – There’s no other team in THE NATIONAL
FOOTBALL LEAGUE that has a higher probability of only winning one game. Prediction = 3-13 The
offensive line is good enough that Jacksonville will be able to grind out a
couple of wins, but it’s in their best interest not to win too many. Two more
years of high draft picks could bring Jacksonville back to a playoff level.
Franchise Players = QB Andrew Luck, WR Reggie Wayne
Supporting Cast = RB Vick Ballard, RB Ahmad Bradshaw,
WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen, LT Anthony Castonzo, MLB
Jerrell Freeman, OLB Robert Mathis, CB Vontae Davis, FS Antoine Bethea, SS
LaRon Landry Notable Rookies = DE Bjoern Werner (Florida St.,
1-24), LG Hugh Thornton (Illinois, 3-86)
Offensive Outlook = Mostly out of necessity, Andrew
Luck got the living shit kicked out of him his first season. The majority of
his passes were low percentage, and he was constantly dealing with pressure.
Reunited with his offensive coordinator from Stanford, look for a quicker
hitting offense that will be much more efficient. Ahmad Bradshaw was brought in
late in the off-season, and will form a solid 1-2 punch with Vick Ballard.
Reggie Wayne looked much more like he did when he was catching passes from
Peyton Manning than he did when he was stuck with Curtis Painter in 2011. He’s
still a legitimate #1 receiver who is the focal point of the offense. T.Y.
Hilton was a DeSean Jackson-like home run threat that was only limited by
faulty hands last season. An improvement in that department might vault him
over 1,000 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey was brought in on a one-year deal, which
could pay huge dividends. Escaping the chaos of the Oakland Raiders gives
Heyward-Bey a chance to reach his potential. The true Achilles heal of this
unit is the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo was their only reliable blocker
last season. Rookies Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes could be given a chance to
start early in their careers.
Defensive Outlook = You can read any number of Colts
related stories on the web right now saying they are candidates for regression,
and the defense is the reason why. The Colts were –30 in point differential (which
means the 11 wins they netted last season were statistically ridiculous), with
the defense consistently getting roasted. Andrew Luck had to pull off seven
comeback victories to bail the club out. Indianapolis aggressively spent this
off-season to improve their 26th ranked defense, with LaRon Landry
being the biggest catch. Landry played 16 games for the first time in four
years, and if healthy, is a game changing player in the secondary. He will form
a dynamic safety duo with Antoine Bethea. Vontae Davis was awful initially, but
by seasons end looked like the lockdown corner he was in Miami. Indianapolis
needs to find someone other than Robert Mathis who can consistently pressure
the quarterback. Rookie Bjoern Werner could be that player.
Ceiling = 12-4 – Indianapolis earned a #1 seed in the
AFC in Peyton Manning’s second year. Luck could duplicate that feat.
Floor = 3-13 – Luck also could get beat up again
thanks to a defense that puts him behind on a consistent basis. Prediction= 6-10 The Colts were
fun last year, but eventually logic and reason will catch up to them. The
offensive line is still one or two pieces away from being reliable, and barring
a major improvement by the front seven, the defense will still be suspect.
Andrew Luck will have a great season, but we don’t forecast the Colts making a
second straight playoff appearance.
Franchise Players = RB Chris Johnson, LG Andy Levitre
Supporting Cast = QB Jake Locker, WR Kenny Britt, WR
Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker, LT Michael Roos, C Fernando Velasco, DE
Derrick Morgan, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard Pollard, SS
George Wilson, KR Darius Reynaud Notable Rookies = RG Chance Warmack (Alabama, 1-10),
WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee, 2-34)
Offensive Outlook = For all of the people who threw
dirt on him last season, Chris Johnson actually had a pretty decent season.
1243 rushing yards, a 4.5 average per carry, 41 receptions, and seven total
touchdowns isn’t bad when you consider how poor the offensive line play for
Tennessee was. No one will appreciate the acquisitions of guards Andy Levitre
and Chance Warmack more than Johnson. Levitre was dominant for Buffalo, and
will fit nicely between returning starters Michael Roos and Fernando Velasco.
Some experts believed that Warmack was the best prospect at guard in a quarter
century. Tennessee will have tremendous flexibility with two quick-footed
pulling guards. Jake Locker is the next one to benefit from the o-line
upgrades, as he often reacted poorly when faced with pressure. Locker lost half
of the 2012 season to injury, and wasn’t as productive in the games he played
after coming back than he was before dislocating his shoulder. This will be the
year we find out if Locker is the Titans answer at quarterback. Tennessee has
an intriguing core of wide receivers that all have the chance of being
productive if given the opportunity. Kenny Britt hasn’t been worth the
headaches he causes off the field, but if there was ever a year for him to keep
his head on straight, it’s this one (he’s an unrestricted free agent after the
season). Kendall Wright tied for the rookie lead in receptions last season, and
was surprisingly reliable on third down.
Defensive Outlook = Similar to Indianapolis, the
Titans defense was atrocious last season. They surrendered 30+ points in six of
their first seven games, and twice had 50+ dropped on them. Expanded blitz
packages stopped the bleeding a bit in the second half, but this is still a
group with significant holes. Derrick Morgan finally performed well enough to
not be considered a bust, but it would be a huge lift for the defense if he
could lift his sack totals into the double digits. Akeem Ayers made huge
strides in 2012, playing at his best when he was blitzing. The secondary was
mostly terrible, but Jason McCourty at least finished the year on a high note.
Bernard Pollard is way more effective when he gets to destroy members of the
New England Patriots, but unfortunately for the Titans they don’t have to face
Tom Brady this year.
Ceiling = 12-4– Only attainable if the defense
maintains it’s second half performance from a year ago.
Floor = 4-12 – The defense could also give up 35
points a game. Prediction = 9-7 If I
were building an NFL team, after a franchise quarterback, the next thing I
would value the most is a dominant offensive line. Tennessee looks to have the
makings of that. Expect a big Chris Johnson year, a solid season from Jake
Locker, and potentially a wild-card berth for the Titans.
Franchise Players = RB Arian Foster, WR
Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, DE J.J. Watt, MLB Brian Cushing
Supporting Cast = QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, LG
Wade Smith, DE Antonio Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kareem
Jackson, FS Ed Reed, SS Danieal Manning Notable Rookies = WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson, 1-27),
FS D.J. Swearinger (South Carolina, 2-57)
Offensive Outlook = Houston looked like the most
dominant team in the league until the calendar hit December. A blowout loss at
New England started a stretch where they lost three of their last four to blow
a first round bye in the playoffs, before eventually getting destroyed again by
the Patriots in the Divisional Round. Matt Schaub shouldered most of the blame
for the late season dive, but poor play from the right side of the offensive
line also contributed. Arian Foster produced another double-digit touchdown
season, but he suffered an alarming drop in his average yards per carry. If Ben
Tate returns to his 2011 form, Houston again will have the benefit of a
dynamite one-two punch. Andre Johnson might not have the explosiveness he had
five years ago, but he’s still a dominant #1 receiver. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins
had an excellent pre-season debut, which gives some hope that they finally will
have a legitimate second wide receiver. Owen Daniels is still a reliable third down
option, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Duane Brown and Chris Myers
anchor one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Defensive Outlook = It’s hard not to be one of the
league’s best defenses when you are getting the production the Texans got out
of J.J. Watt last season. 20.5 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end is ridiculous (for
those not informed, outside linebackers are usually the top pass rushers in a
3-4. Players playing the position Watt normally lines up at are normally
dedicated to stopping the run). He’s a transcendent player that gives Houston
defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tons of flexibility. Antonio Smith was the
main beneficiary of Watt’s destructiveness, as he rarely if ever saw double
teams. The loss of Brian Cushing in Week 5 dramatically reduced the
effectiveness of the Texans’ run defense. A return to full health gives Houston
the chance to field the top defense in the league. The secondary was solid for
the most part, but was exposed when Houston’s pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback
(see both games against New England last season). Adding Ed Reed gives the
Texans a respected veteran who knows what it takes for a team to hoist the
Lombardi Trophy.
Ceiling = 14-2– The defense does have a
chance to be vastly superior to any other teams D.
Floor = 8-8 – It would take an epically incompetent
Matt Schaub performance, plus an injury or two along the offensive line for the
Texans to fall to .500. Prediction = 10-6 On paper
they are still vastly superior to the rest of the division, but catching the
NFC West isn’t the walk in the park it was three years ago. That makes the
difference between the Texans having a chance at a first round bye or settling
for a third or fourth seed.
Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, DT Tyson
Alualu, LB Paul Posluszny
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Laurent Robinson, CB
Aaron Ross Potential Impact Rookies = WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma
State) 1-5, DE Andre Branch (Clemson) 2-6
Outlook = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne
will be the starting quarterback, they took a punter in the third round of
the draft, and there's a great chance their best player could hold out for a good portion of the regular season. Maybe we’ll write more about this team when they move to Los
Angeles.
Franchise Players = WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney,
DE Robert Mathis, S Antoine Bethea
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DT Cory Redding, S Tom
Zhikowski Potential Impact Rookies = Andrew Luck (Stanford) 1-1, TE
Coby Fleener (Stanford) 2-2, TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 3-1
Outlook = Has there ever been a more under
the radar number one draft pick than Andrew Luck? Thanks to all the hoopla over
Robert Griffin III, Luck has quietly gone about his business in Indy. His
stellar performance in his first preseason game seemed to remind folks that he,
not Griffin, was the top player selected in the 2012 draft. If he’s anything
close to the “best college prospect since Peyton Manning”, it’s not outrageous
to think that this team can be competitive. Sure the offensive line still
stinks, and the defense is still a work in progress, but there are still
veterans from Manning’s best teams that will not let the team quit on their
young quarterback. Don’t expect a surprising playoff run, but look for the
Colts to begin sowing the seeds for a successful 2014 and beyond.
Ceiling = 8-8
Floor = 4-12 No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
2. Houston Texans
2011 Record = 10-6, First in AFC South, Lost in AFC
Divisional Game 2012 Schedule = MIA, @ JAC, @ DEN, TEN, @ NYJ, GB, BAL,
BYE, BUF, @ CHI, JAC, @ DET, @ TEN, @ NE, IND, MIN, @ IND
Franchise Players = QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR
Andre Johnson, T Duane Brown, DE J.J. Watt, LB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan
Joseph
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB Bradie James, S Alan
Ball Potential Impact Rookies = Whitney Mercilius (Illinois)
1-26
Outlook = Houston overcame a season ending
injury to Matt Schaub and season-long hamstring troubles for Andre Johnson to
win the franchise’s first division title and playoff game. The offensive line
is strong enough that it doesn’t matter whether Arian Foster or Ben Tate is carrying
the ball. With a healthy Johnson (which could be hard to ask for, he’s already
had hamstring troubles in training camp) this offense could return to it’s
2009-10 level of production. My worries aren’t with the Texans offense, but
their defense. Mario Williams left (for a ginormous amount of money) for the
Buffalo Bills, leaving Houston without one of the ten best defensive players in
the league. For Houston’s defense to maintain their high level of play from
last season, J.J. Watt or Brian Cushing needs to fill that void. Color me a
pessimist, but I don’t see that happening.
Franchise Players = QB Jake Locker, RB Chris Johnson, WR
Kenny Britt, T Michael Roos, DE Derrick Morgan, S Michael Griffin
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Steven Hutchinson, LB
Kamerion Wimbley Potential Impact Rookies =WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) 1-20
Outlook = Tennessee has more question
marks than your average team. Will Jake Locker take the reigns at QB and raise
the Titans to another level? Will Chris Johnson return to the form he showed
before he was paid a significant amount of money? Will Kenny Britt stay out of
jail? If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, Tennessee could be
a surprisingly tough opponent for teams like New England, Chicago, and Green
Bay. I’ll buy in on Locker and Johnson, which should be enough for Tennessee to
take a weak division.
Real-Life Outlook = Ever since the end of the Mark Brunell era, it seems like Jacksonville has thrown together a crappy roster, yet somehow managed to finish around .500. I like the team’s additions on defense (they were forced to dole out the cash so they could reach the new minimum salary requirement), but two things are really working against them this season.
Jacksonville is dealing with a legitimate quarterback controversy. David Garrard has been a solid starting quarterback the past four years, but the team drafted Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick. If the Jaguars find themselves below .500 going into their bye, expect people to clamor for the young gun to take over under center.
Along with the Vikings, the Jaguars are the most logical franchise to move to Los Angeles. Potential relocation has derailed teams for years in all sports (with the exception of the Minnesota Twins, who beat back contraction talk a decade ago, and now play in one of the best new ballparks in all of MLB).
Maybe Jacksonville could overcome one of those issues, but not both. I’ll still give them a relatively high ceiling, but a very low chance of reaching it.
Fantasy Outlook = It didn’t take long for Maurice Jones-Drew to fall from the fantasy elite. After a two-year stretch of being a top-5 pick in all fantasy leagues, MJD can now be had anywhere from picks 10-20. If you do take Maurice, do your best to handcuff the Jaguars backfield by also getting Rashad Jennings. Jennings averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited action last season, and could see more action if Jones-Drew continues to show signs of wearing down. WR Mike Thomas should be looked at as one of your bye-week substitutes, and if you miss out on a big-name tight end, wait until about the 10th round and draft Mercedes Lewis. He probably won’t score 10 touchdowns again, but don’t be shocked if he catches at least 65 passes.
Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 2-14 No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
3. Houston Texans
2010 Record = 6-10, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = CB Jonathan Joseph, S Daniel Manning Key Losses = FB Vonta Leach, G Mike Brisiel
Real-Life Outlook = After years of being one of the trendy picks to make the playoffs, experts have finally stopped predicting that Houston will have a breakout season. There’s no questioning of the offensive talent they can put on the field, but soft defensive play destroyed Houston in 2010. Keep in mind that this defense was so bad, Donovan McNabb threw for 350 yards against them (more on McNabb in the NFC North Preview). Adding Joseph to anchor one of the cornerback spots will be a boost (Joseph is probably the best corner that this team has ever employed), but you can’t totally trust this group until you see their defensive line perform (they’ve done a nice job of surrounding Mario Williams with a bunch of stiffs over the past five years). If the front seven can take of business, than the sky is the limit for this team. It’s fair to call them this year’s AFC version of the Arizona Cardinals.
Fantasy Outlook = In the soon to be released No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft, two Texans went in the top-6 (if that isn’t a sign of the rapture, I don’t know what is). Arian Foster isn’t totally trustworthy in my opinion (he’s only had one huge year, and was a bust in college), but his production last year will make him the top pick in the majority of fantasy leagues. Andre Johnson has been the top per-game producer at wide receiver for years now, and is as reliable a 1st round pick as you can make this season (especially in PPR leagues). Matt Schaub will more than likely be the 8th quarterback taken in your draft. Expect him to come off the board sometime in the 5th or early 6th round. Owen Daniels will also go in the 6th round area, but you’re better off waiting for a guy like Mercedes Lewis than taking Daniels that high.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 4-12 No Credentials Prediction = 8-8
2. Indianapolis Colts
2010 Record = 10-6, 1st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Jets)
Real-Life Outlook = On the good side, Indianapolis has almost all of the pieces back from last years team. On the down side, that was a team that couldn’t stop the run or run the ball themselves. The potential for an improved run defense is there if former Bears first-rounder Tommie Harris has a bounce back year. The Colts added plenty of rookies to the offensive line, but the club still lacks a stud runningback. For this team to be successful, Peyton Manning will have to push 4,800 yards and minimize turnovers at the same time.
Fantasy Outlook = Peyton will be anywhere from the 3rd to 6th QB taken in your draft. His neck injury might scare some people off, but Manning will need to physically lose limbs before he even considers missing a game. He’ll go somewhere near the end of the 2nd round. Reggie Wayne had a great bounce-back year in 2010. If you’re looking to bet on one receiver who will most likely break 100 receptions this season, Wayne is the guy. Dallas Clark appears to be healthy, and will cost you at least a 5th round pick to acquire his services. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie need to thought of as potential 3rd starters or solid bye week options. Garcon has the most upside, and would be the receiver I would prefer to have on my team.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 7-9 No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
1. Tennessee Titans
2010 Record = 6-10, 4th in Division
Key Additions = QB Matt Hasselbeck, LB Barrett Rudd Key Losses = DE Jason Babin, LB Stephen Tulloch
Real-Life Outlook = I won’t sit here and predict that Matt Hasselbeck will be the league MVP, but I do feel comfortable saying that Hasselbeck is the best quarterback this team has had since Steve McNair (keep in mind that last year they had some guy named Rusty, or Rocky, or Rudolph playing quarterback for a game or two). Tennessee was one of the surprise teams in the AFC last year before the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher debacle submarined their season. With both of those men gone, I’m expecting Tennessee to have a solid season. I haven’t discussed the schedule so far during my first few previews (mostly because there’s so much parody year to year, and teams you think will be bad going into the season end up being good, and vice versa), but Tennessee looks to have the most favorable schedule we’ve covered so far. The Titans play Buffalo while the Colts play New England. Tennessee plays Denver while Jacksonville gets the Chargers. Of their eight road games, they should only be heavy underdogs in three of them. Barring unexpected developments, Tennessee’s schedule could be the difference in the AFC South.
Fantasy Outlook = Chris Johnson will go no later than pick 5 in your draft. He’s one player I want to track closely during the preseason. I have no facts to back up this statement, but I feel like he’s the kind of guy that was probably drinking gallons of Grey Goose and eating Doritos during the lockout. I want to make sure he doesn’t look like Bam Morris (circa 1995) before even considering adding him to my fantasy team. If he’s fine, he should eclipse 1,600 yards with a reliable QB under center. Hasselbeck is nothing more than a bye week fill-in. Kenny Britt is an interesting option, assuming he’s able to stay out of jail long enough to help you.
Against all odds, the NFL lockout has come to an end. Roger Goodell and NFLPA leader Demaurice Smith stood side by side today to make the announcement. Here are the twenty key points that got the deal done.
League agrees to meet in the middle on splitting of overall revenue. Furthermore, league will adopt union’s proposal of a $161 million salary cap for next season.
A new rookie wage scale. Money saved will be allocated to veterans and player health benefits.
Up to $1 million guaranteed the year following a player suffers a serious injury.
Reduction of all off-season activities, as well as limits on number of full-contact practices.
Brett Favre will be banned from ever playing in the NFL again (“This is a win-win for all parties involved,” says Goodell).
2011 and 2012 seasons will be 16 games long. Both players and owners must agree upon any future move to 18 games.
Owners will fund $82 million benefit fund for former players.
Current players will have opportunity to stay on league healthcare plan for life.
$5 million reward for defensive player that is able to convince Tiki Barber he should’ve thought twice about returning to the NFL.
Jaguars will be forced to relocate by the start of the 2014 season (“Have you ever tried to find some ass in downtown Jacksonville on a Saturday night?” asks an anonymous player, “It’s a scary situation.”).
Any appeals of drug or steroid related suspensions will be handled by third-party arbitration.
Improvements in the Mackey Plan (designed to assist players suffering from dementia and other brain-related issues), disability plan, and a college degree bonus program.
Teams will each be forced to roster five ex-convicts on their team (“We need more Lawrence Taylors,” says Smith).
Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith will be placed on teams that actually have NFL-caliber quarterbacks.
Current players will be banned from participating in “Dancing With the Stars” in order to keep jobs open for retired hall of famers.
All 32 clubs must use at least 90% of salary cap over course of three seasons.
NFL will enact the “Travis Henry Bonus”, which gives a player an extra $100,000 for each woman he impregnates.
Fantasy Football will be replaced by a game where you wager on which of two monkeys will fling poop at the other first.
“Welcome to the Jungle” and “Crazy Train” will be retired from ever being played during a game again (what does it say for the state of music when the two go-to songs to play during games are from the 1980s? I love me some Guns ‘n Roses and Ozzy, but it’s time we find something else).
Tom Brady will be forced to cut his hair or retire.
Anytime a team hangs 80+ on a fellow conference opponent, and the sport is football, I’ll tip my cap. It’s hard to score 83 points in a game of Madden (unless you’re a sally and play on a level less than All-Madden), much less in a Big-10 game.
9. Carl Edwards Does a Back Flip After Winning the NASCAR Race at Phoenix
This feat doesn’t get enough credit. I made two separate three hour drives this past weekend. Each time I got out of my car, my legs felt like jelly (perhaps this applies to just me and my poor athletic conditioning, but I hope a few of you share the same sensation). Edwards is able to climb out of a car after racing for 300, 400, or 500 miles, climb on top of it, and then do a back flip and land on pavement. Keep in mind that the cockpits of these cars are made so the drivers are wrapped up in a cocoon, and the temperature inside of them is usually around 120 degrees. I don’t know how he does it.
8. Wade-less Cowboys Win in the Meadowlands
I would’ve ranked this higher, but I can’t in good conscious get too excited about a team that’s still 2-7. I will say that I’m downright giddy about Dez Bryant’s future. If he can stay out of trouble, I have no doubt that he will be a top 5 receiver in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (that was a tribute to ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski for those who didn’t get the joke. My caps lock key didn’t break or anything).
7. U.S. Authorities Stop Mac-Truck With 3 Tons of Marijuana on Board
Can we devote one of my 648 cable channels solely to covering large drug busts 24 hours a day? I love these stories. This drug bust happened near Falfurriaa, Texas, on Friday. This is the conversation I think would’ve occurred on this truck shortly before it was pulled over (assuming that there was a passenger along with the driver).
Passenger: “Dude, there’s like, so much weed on this truck man.”
Driver: “Ya dude. It’s like, a lot.”
Passenger: “Wouldn’t it be cool if we just pulled over somewhere, and you know, smoked all of it?”
Driver: “Whoa dude, my brain just broke.”
(EDITOR’S NOTE: The writer’s favorite all-time drug bust story involved former Cowboys offensive lineman Nate Newton. He was stopped once with about 210 pounds of marijuana, and then 10 days later was stopped again with 180 pounds of marijuana. Remarkably, both stops occurred while Newton was driving the same van)
6. Manny Pacquiao Wins a Unanimous Decision Over Antonio Margarito
It’s a damn shame that 90% of the country stopped caring about boxing 20 years ago. Pacquiao doesn’t get nearly enough credit.
5. Jaguars Complete Hail Mary to Beat Texans at the Buzzer
This could’ve been ranked second or third, but unfortunately the play involved two irrelevant teams. You have to feel bad for the Texans. Most of the time a Hail Mary is completed, it’s usually because the defense tried to catch the ball as opposed to knocking it straight to the ground. On this play, the Texans defensive back did attempt to knock the ball straight into the turf. Unfortunately, the ball landed squarely in the chest of the shortest player on the Jaguars team. Better luck next year Texans.
4. Bill Clinton Films Scene for “The Hangover 2”
If there are any jokes during his scene about a stain on a black dress, my aorta will detonate into 12,000 pieces.
3. Patriots Demolish Steelers 39-26
It was a vintage performance by Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday night. The Steelers had no answer for the Patriots three wide receiver sets, or their two tight end formations. They couldn’t get any pressure on Brady, and they couldn’t cover the receivers. I thought the Patriots would be toast without Randy Moss to draw two defenders, but I was wrong.
I’m a big nerd for match-ups like this. Measuring stick games go along way in predicting what will happen come playoff time. The Steelers are the big bullies that want to arm-wrestle their opponents, but the Patriots turned it into a chess match. Brady knew where every blitz was coming from. The Steelers secondary is serviceable, but they can’t hang with receivers forever if there pass rush isn’t getting there. I’m not sure what they can do to better disguise their blitzes in a future playoff match-up. I would suggest just rushing three and having 8 defenders back in zone coverage (the Patriots used this strategy with great success against the Colts in the early ‘00s).
2. Cam Newton Accounts for 4 TDs as Auburn Blasts Georgia
I’m not sure what Cam Newton ever did to ESPN. Everyday last week, there was new allegations about him. Ole Miss started the firestorm by saying Newton’s father had informed them that Newton would need to be paid in order to attend the school. Then Florida jumped in and said that he stole another student’s assignment and claimed it as his own while playing for the Gators (interesting that this comes out years after the event occurred while the Gators are floundering and Newton is a Heisman Trophy candidate).
My question to you readers (all nine or so of you) is, do you actually care if a kid in college gets paid to play football? Would you get angry if a law student got $10,000 from a prospective firm as an incentive to be employed there after graduating? I think the answer is no. The NCAA makes millions of dollars off of college football and basketball. If some of there players make a couple of bucks, then so be it.
This wouldn’t even be a story if it weren’t for the aftermath of Reggie Bush giving up his Heisman trophy. I guess the media wants to make sure that there on top of this story from the get go. I don’t know how many of you remember Reggie Bush while he was at USC (I was in my late teenage years, so I can recall about 35% of that era, which I don’t think is half bad), but Reggie Bush and the USC Trojans were rock stars. They were as famous (if not more so) than every single NFL team. Is it so ridiculous that this kid would be offered certain benefits and accept them? Would you be able to turn down large sums of money when you’re currently not earning anything? The NCAA needs to worry about more important things (instituting a playoff system in college football, working with the NBA to extend the 1-year of college rule, kids tumbling to their death from a tower that is blown over by 50 mph wind gusts) than kid’s taking money.
1. My Son Evan Meets His Great-Great Grandfather and Great-Grandfather
I didn’t want to spend much time gushing about my family in this space, but the two visits we had this weekend were definitely worth the cut. We made our first long-distance excursion as a family since our little guy was born 4 ½ months ago. Both grandparents were very excited to meet the newest addition to our family. My dad also made the trek to my grandfather’s, so we were able to take the “4-generation” photo. Pretty cool.
