Classic NASCAR Crash of the Week - Atlanta

I remember watching this crash when I was 11. I would've bet anything that Steve Grissom was dead. He's very fortunate he backed into the wall instead of slamming head on into it.

 



2012 AFC East Preview

            Welcome to the AFC East, where even playing the AFC South and NFC West isn’t enough to save the Dolphins and Jets.
 

4. Miami Dolphins

 

2011 Record = 6-10, Third in AFC East

2012 Schedule = @ HOU, OAK, NYJ, @ ARI, @ CIN, STL, BYE, @ NYJ, @ IND, TEN, @ BUF, SEA, NE, @ SF, JAC, BUF, @ NE

Franchise Players = RB Reggie Bush, T Jake Long, C Mike Pouncey, LB Cameron Wake

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB E.J. Henderson, CB Richard Marshall, G Eric Steinbach
Potential Impact Rookies = QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) 1-8, T Jonathan Martin (Stanford) 2-10, Lamar Miller (Miami) 4-2

Outlook = Miami just traded their best corner to the Colts. Not quite as dramatic as the Red Sox shipping $253 million worth of salary to Los Angeles for the equivalent of a poop sandwich, but it’s the same idea. Their offensive line is good enough that they’ll steal a couple of wins just by running over people, but this team is going no where fast.

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13

3. New York Jets

 

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East

2012 Schedule = BUF, @ PIT, @ MIA, SF, HOU, IND, @ NE, MIA, BYE, @ SEA, @ STL, NE, ARI, @ JAC, @ TEN, SD, @ BUF

Franchise Players = TE Dustin Keller, T D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, LB Bart Scott, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Antonio Cromartie

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = God, QB Tim Tebow, S LaRon Landry
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina) 1-16, Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 2-11

Outlook = New York has a great defense (on paper anyway), and they are built to primarily run the football. In other words, they’d be great if the year was 1964. Unfortunately, they are not constructed to succeed in the new pass-happy NFL. Mark Sanchez hasn’t developed much since a solid rookie campaign in 2009, so expecting a leap from him is foolish. Throw in the possibility of the home crowd chanting for Tebow after every incompletion, and this makes for a miserable season for Sanchez and the Jets. Expect it to be the last year we see Rex Ryan roaming the Jets’ sideline.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
 

2. Buffalo Bills

 

2011 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East

2012 Schedule = @ NYJ, KC, @ CLE, NE, @ SF, @ ARI, TEN, BYE, @ HOU, @ NE, MIA, @ IND, JAC, STL, SEA, @ MIA, NYJ

Franchise Players = QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Fred Jackson, WR Stevie Johnson, G Andy Levitre, DT Marcell Dareus, DT Kyle Williams, CB Leodis McKelvin

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DE Mario Williams, DE Mark Anderson
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) 1-10, T Cordy Glenn (Georgia) 2-9

Outlook = It’s not very often that the largest free agent contract handed out comes from the Buffalo Bills, but that’s what happened this off-season whey they inked Mario Williams to a $100 million deal. Buffalo has the scariest defensive line in the AFC East, which is a good thing when you have two dates with Tom Brady every year. There’s a little too much Ryan Fitzpatrick involved to make me believe that this is a Super Bowl contender, but this should be the season that the Bills finally return to the playoffs.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
 

1. New England Patriots

 

2011 Record = 13-3, First in AFC East, Lost Super Bowl

2012 Schedule = @ TEN, ARI, @ BAL, @ BUF, DEN, @ SEA, NYJ, @ STL, BYE, BUF, IND, @ NYJ, @ MIA, HOU, SF, @ JAC, MIA

Franchise Players = QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE Aaron Hernandez, G Logan Mankins, DT Vince Wilfork, LB Jerod Mayo, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Devin McCourty, S Patrick Chung, K Stephen Gostkowski

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Joseph Addai, WR Brandon Lloyd, G Robert Gallery, CB Will Allen
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse) 1-21, LB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) 1-25, RB Jeff Demps (Florida) Undrafted

Outlook = To illustrate just how weak the Patriots schedule is this season, I’m going to list the likely quarterbacks they will face in each of their games.

Week 1 = Jake Locker (I like Locker, but it will be his first NFL start)

Week 2 = Kevin Kolb or John Skelton (aka “the crappy quarterback” or “the other crappy quarterback”)
Week 3 = Joe Flacco
Week 4 = Ryan Fitzpatrick
Week 5 = Peyton Manning (five years ago this would be scary, but at 85% arm strength, not so much anymore)
Week 6 = Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn (Wilson might’ve gotten squashed by a defensive tackle by this point)
Week 7 = Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow
Week 8 = Sam Bradford
Week 10 = Fitzpatrick
Week 11 = Andrew Luck (this will be scary in two or three years, but he’s still a rookie)
Week 12 = Tebow (Sanchez might make it to Week 7, but not Week 12)
Week 13 = Ryan Tannehill or Matt Moore
Week 14 = T.J. Yates, or T.J. Hooker, or whoever the Texans backup is (Schaub will be hurt by Week 14)
Week 15 = Alex Smith
Week 16 = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne (it sucks to cheer for the Jaguars)
Week 17 = Tannehill or Moore

            Isn’t 85% Peyton Manning still the best quarterback on this list? It’s ridiculous. As soon as I phone this column in I’m placing a hefty wager on the over for New England’s season win total.

Ceiling = 16-0

Floor = 10-6
No Credentials Prediction = 15-1

Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West

 

 

Classic NASCAR Crash of the Week - Bristol

Dale Earnhardt was never booed more than he was after this memorable final lap at Bristol in 1999.

 



2012 NFC East Preview

4. Washington Redskins

 

2011 Record = 5-11, Last in NFC East

2012 Schedule = @ NO, @ STL, CIN, @ TB, ATL, MIN, @ NYG, @ PIT, CAR, BYE, PHI, @ DAL, NYG, BAL, @ CLE, @ PHI, DAL

Franchise Players = TE Fred Davis, T Trent Williams, LB Brian Orakpo, LB London Fletcher, LB Ryan Kerrigan

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Pierre Garcon, WR Josh Morgan, S Brandon Meriweather
Potential Impact Rookies = QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor) 1-2, QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 4-7

Outlook = Isn’t it a problem when the best two players a team’s draft class can’t be on the field at the same time? Mike Shanahan is bonkers.

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13
 

3. New York Giants

 

2011 Record = 9-7, First in NFC East, Won Super Bowl

2012 Schedule = DAL, TB, @ CAR, @ PHI, CLE, @ SF, WAS, @ DAL, PIT, @ CIN, BYE, GB, @ WAS, NO, @ ATL, @ BAL, PHI

Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Victor Cruz, WR Hakeem Nicks, G Chris Snee, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DE Justin Tuck, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, CB Prince Amukamara

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = TE Martellus Bennett, G Sean Locklear, DT Shaun Rogers
Potential Impact Rookies = RB David Wilson (Virginia Tech) 1-32, WR Reuben Randle (LSU) 2-32

Outlook = Are this years Giants the team that caught fire in the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl, or the squad that was actually outscored by it’s opponents during the regular season 400-394? They are a maddening team to predict (or even worse, gamble on) as they consistently play up or down to the level of their competition. They’ll have to play up to it much more this season than last, as they have one of the most treacherous road schedules in the league. By my count, only their Week 13 game at Washington appears to be the only easy road test, but that is thrown out the window given their history with the Redskins (remember that Washington thumped the Giants in New Jersey in Week 15 last season before the Giants caught fire the rest of the season). Throw in a Super Bowl hangover, and No Credentials will sign off on a sub-.500 season.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9
 

2. Dallas Cowboys

 

 

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in NFC East

2012 Schedule = @ NYG, @ SEA, TB, CHI, BYE, @ BAL, @ CAR, NYG, @ ATL, @ PHI, CLE, WAS, PHI, @ CIN, PIT, NO, @ WAS

Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, T Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, LB DeMarcus Ware, LB Sean Lee, LB Anthony Spencer

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Kyle Orton, FB Lawrence Vickers, LB Dan Connor, CB Brandon Carr
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Morris Claiborne (LSU) 1-6

Outlook = Dallas faces similar schedule issues to what the Giants will see, with the exception of dodging the 49ers and Packers. Kudos to Jerry Jones for addressing the secondary, which stood out like a sore thumb over the final month of 2011. Morris Claiborne has the tools to be an immediate shutdown corner, and Brandon Carr is versatile enough to play out wide or as the nickelback. If Mike Jenkins were to ever rediscover his 2009 form, Rex Ryan could have one of the top cornerback units in the league.

            The lone concern with the Cowboys on paper is their offensive line. Tyron Smith had an excellent rookie campaign at right tackle, but is now being moved to cover Tony Romo’s blindside (Doug Free, who previously succeeded at right tackle, was a disaster last season at left tackle. He’ll switch back to the right). How he adapts to this switch will ultimately determine the success of the 2012 Cowboys. If he plays at a Pro Bowl level, this will be a dominant offensive force on par with the Packers, Patriots, and Saints.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Philadelphia Eagles

 

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC East

2012 Schedule = @ CLE, BAL, @ ARI, NYG, @ PIT, DET, BYE, ATL, @ NO, DAL, @ WAS, CAR, @ DAL, @ TB, CIN, WAS, @ NYG

Franchise Players = QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Brent Celek, DE Jason Babin, DE Trent Cole, DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = S Oshiomogho Atogwe, P Mat McBriar
Potential Impact Rookies = DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State) 1-12, LB Mychal Kendricks (California) 2-14, DE Vinny Curry (Marshall) 2-27, QB Nick Foles (Arizona) 3-25

Outlook = Philadelphia was a disaster at the start of the 2011 season, but started to put the pieces together down the stretch. The defense was aggressively overhauled this past off-season. Asante Samuel was shipped to Atlanta (hopefully meaning that Asomugha doesn’t get shuffled between corner and safety. He’s the best cover corner in football, and should be left alone), and their first three draft picks should go along way in shoring up a defense that had no answer against the run. They were even able to draft some Mike Vick insurance (he’s a shoe in to miss at least four games) in the form of Nick Foles, who’s been a preseason sensation. They might be a year late, but this is the year that the Eagles will realize their potential.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
 

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West

2012 AFC North Preview

     Here's the AFC North, aka "Two Old Teams, One Young One, and Another Crappy One, and a Pizza Place".

4. Cleveland Browns

2011 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North

2012 Schedule = PHI, @ CIN, BUF, @ BAL, @ NYG, CIN, @ IND, SD, BAL, BYE, @ DAL, PIT, @ OAK, KC, WAS, @ DEN, @ PIT

Franchise Players = T Joe Thomas, CB Joe Haden

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) 1-3, QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) 1-22, T Mitchell Schwartz (California) 2-5

Outlook = If you’re wondering how the Brandon Weeden era will work out in Cleveland, look up how the Carolina Panthers did with Chris Weinke under center.

Ceiling = 5-11

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13

3. Baltimore Ravens

2011 Record = 12-4, First in AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship Game

2012 Schedule = CIN, @ PHI, NE, CLE, @ KC, DAL, @ HOU, BYE, @ CLE, OAK, @ PIT, @ SD, PIT, @ WAS, DEN, NYG, @ CIN

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Torrey Smith, T Michael Oher, C Matt Birk, DT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, LB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Bobbie Williams
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) 2-3

Outlook = The video above is the reason I’m so down on the Ravens this year. I don’t see this team rebounding from such a disappointing defeat. Sure there are still Hall of Famers on defense, but they are aging (watch Ray Lewis move laterally. He’s not as graceful as he used to be), and Joe Flacco doesn’t inspire much confidence at all. A breakout from him in his fifth season seems unlikely. It’s much more probable that he is what he has been the past two seasons, which is an average quarterback that can manage a game but do very little to win one. This becomes a problem when the Ravens decide to throw the ball 50 times in the game and forget to hand the ball to Ray Rice (who you know, is only the best all-around runningback on planet Earth right now). Throw in a brutal schedule (even though two of their first three are at home, they won’t be cakewalks), and you have all the makings for a disappointing year of football in Baltimore.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Cincinnati Bengals

2011 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC North, Lost in AFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ BAL, CLE, @ WAS, @ JAC, MIA, @ CLE, PIT, BYE, DEN, NYG, @ KC, OAK, @ SD, DAL, @ PIT, @ PHI, BAL

Franchise Players = QB Andy Dalton, WR A.J. Green, T Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, LB Rey Maualuga, LB Manny Lawson, CB Leon Hall, S Reggie Nelson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CB Jason Allen, CB Terrance Newman
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) 1-17, G Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) 1-27, DT Devon Still (Penn State) 2-21, DT Brandon Thompson (Clemson) 3-30

Outlook = Not a lot of teams had as successful of a draft as the Bengals, which is hard to believe because they are the Bengals. Their fleecing of Oakland in the Carson Palmer enhanced an already talented young roster. A.J. Green appears to be on the verge of becoming a top-5 wide receiver, and Andy Dalton could go down as the best second round draft pick of the ‘10s. With their patty-cake stretch from weeks 2 through 6 (two games against the Browns, trips to Washington and Jacksonville, and a home date with Miami), and we could very easily be talking about a 5-1 or 6-0 football team when they face Pittsburgh at home in Week 7. That’s the cushion they will need to withstand a tougher second half slate.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
 

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2011 Record = 12-4, Second in AFC North, Lost in AFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ DEN, NYJ, @ OAK, BYE, PHI, @ TEN, @ CIN, WAS, @ NYG, KC, BAL, @ CLE, @ BAL, SD, @ DAL, CIN, CLE

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Wallace, WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB James Harrison, LB LaMarr Woodley, LB Lawrence Timmons, S Troy Polamalu

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = G David DeCastro (Stanford) 1-24, T Mike Adams (Ohio State) 2-24, DT Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) 4-14

Outlook = Pittsburgh’s draft haul may not be as impressive as Cincinnati’s but David DeCastro and Mike Adams should go along way in keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. With added time in the pocket, the dynamic duo of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown (here’s your dark horse pick for best receiving tandem in the NFL this year) will be even more lethal than they were a year ago. Expect the Steelers to ensure that they won’t start the playoffs on the road this January.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
 

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West

Classic NASCAR Crash of Last Week - Michigan

So I blew the posting time for last weeks crash, but it works out because we can link to Mark Martin's scary accident yesterday. He's very lucky to be alive.



2012 NFC North Preview

            Here’s the NFC North, aka “the worst possible division for the Vikings to play in”.

4. Minnesota Vikings

2011 Record = 3-13, Last in NFC North

2012 Schedule = JAC, @ IND, SF, @ DET, TEN, @ WAS, ARI, TB, @ SEA, DET, BYE, @ CHI, @ GB, CHI, @ STL, @ HOU, GB

Franchise Players = QB Christian Ponder, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin, DT Kevin Williams, DE Jared Allen

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = TE John Carlson
Potential Impact Rookies = T Matt Kalil (USC) 1-4, S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) 1-29, CB Josh Robinson (Central Florida) 3-3

Outlook = Minnesota has some elite talent, but unfortunately had no one to block for their quarterback or defend opposing wide receivers. This year’s rookie class will help (especially Kalil, who looks like a franchise tackle), but being stuck in the most hellacious division in football doesn’t help their chances of making a surprise playoff run. They should consider the season a success if Christian Ponder establishes himself as a viable NFL starter, regardless of how many games they win.

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 4-12

3. Detroit Lions

2011 Record = 10-6, Second in NFC North, Lost in NFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = STL, @ SF, @ TEN, MIN, BYE, @ PHI, @ CHI, SEA, @ JAC, @ MIN, GB, HOU, IND, @ GB, @ ARI, ATL, CHI

Franchise Players = QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Brandon Pettigrew, DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Nick Fairley, K Jason Hanson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = S Sean Jones
Potential Impact Rookies = T Riley Reiff (Iowa) 1-23, CB Dwight Bentley (Louisiana-Lafayette) 3-22, LB Ronnell Lewis (Oklahoma) 4-30

Outlook = Other than the Cowboys of the mid-90s, you’ll be hard pressed to find a club that was successful despite numerous off the field distractions. Detroit went for the team record for most off-season arrests (unfortunately, the 2005 Bengals can’t be touched in that department), which puts a damper on all of the hope generated by their wildcard berth last season. Detroit will still be exciting (how could Stafford to Megatron not be?), but look for a few of their 2011 comeback victories to morph into a few gut wrenching losses this season.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9

2. Chicago Bears

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in NFC North

2012 Schedule = IND, @ GB, STL, @ DAL, @ JAC, BYE, DET, CAR, @ TEN, HOU, @ SF, MIN, SEA, @ MIN, GB, @ ARI, @ DET

Franchise Players = QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WR-KR Devin Hester, DE Julius Peppers, LB Brian Urlacher, LB Lance Briggs, K Robbie Gould

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Jason Campbell, RB Michael Bush, WR Brandon Marshall, CB Kelvin Hayden
Potential Impact Rookies = LB Shea McClellin (Boise State) 1-19, WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) 2-13

Outlook = A promising start to the 2011 season was derailed by season ending injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Caleb Hanie threw together some of the worst starts in NFL history, which makes Chicago’s acquisition of Jason Campbell a wise move. The addition of Brandon Marshall provides Cutler with his best receiver since joining the Bears in 2009. Throw in rookie Alshon Jeffery (who has a bit of Kenny Britt to him, and I’m not talking about on the field), and Chicago should have its best passing attack since the glory days of Erik Kramer, Curtis Conway, and Jeff Graham (editors note: those glory days all happened during the 1995 season). Green Bay has more talent on paper, but the Bears aren’t that far behind.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4

1. Green Bay Packers

 

2011 Record = 15-1, First in NFC North, Lost in NFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = SF, CHI, @ SEA, NO, @ IND, @ HOU, @ STL, JAC, ARI, BYE, @ DET, @ NYG, MIN, DET, @ CHI, TEN, @ MIN

Franchise Players = QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Greg Jennings, WR Jordy Nelson, TE Jermichael Finley, DT B.J. Raji, LB Clay Matthews, CB/S Charles Woodson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = C Jeff Saturday, DE Anthony Hargrove
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Nick Perry (USC) 1-28, DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State) 2-19, CB Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) 2-30

Outlook = Has there ever been a more disappointing playoff team than last seasons Packers? After rolling through the regular season, Green Bay laid an egg at home against the Giants. Rather than go bonkers adding free agents, Green Bay addressed their defense deficiencies in the draft. If you’re willing to bet that the defense returns to its 2010 level of play, this should be the best team in football.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 13-3

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West

 

2012 AFC South Preview

            Here’s the AFC South, aka “the worst division in football”.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 Record = 5-11, Third in AFC South

2012 Schedule = @ MIN, HOU, @ IND, CIN, CHI, BYE, @ OAK, @ GB, DET, IND, @ HOU, TEN, @ BUF, NYJ, @ MIA, NE, @ TEN

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, DT Tyson Alualu, LB Paul Posluszny

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross
Potential Impact Rookies = WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) 1-5, DE Andre Branch (Clemson) 2-6

Outlook = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne will be the starting quarterback, they took a punter in the third round of the draft, and there's a great chance their best player could hold out for a good portion of the regular season. Maybe we’ll write more about this team when they move to Los Angeles.

Ceiling = 5-11

Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Indianapolis Colts



2011 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South

2012 Schedule = @ CHI, MIN, JAC, BYE, GB, @ NYJ, CLE, @ TEN, MIA, @ JAC, @ NE, BUF, @ DET, TEN, @ HOU, @ KC, HOU

Franchise Players = WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney, DE Robert Mathis, S Antoine Bethea

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DT Cory Redding, S Tom Zhikowski
Potential Impact Rookies = Andrew Luck (Stanford) 1-1, TE Coby Fleener (Stanford) 2-2, TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 3-1

Outlook = Has there ever been a more under the radar number one draft pick than Andrew Luck? Thanks to all the hoopla over Robert Griffin III, Luck has quietly gone about his business in Indy. His stellar performance in his first preseason game seemed to remind folks that he, not Griffin, was the top player selected in the 2012 draft. If he’s anything close to the “best college prospect since Peyton Manning”, it’s not outrageous to think that this team can be competitive. Sure the offensive line still stinks, and the defense is still a work in progress, but there are still veterans from Manning’s best teams that will not let the team quit on their young quarterback. Don’t expect a surprising playoff run, but look for the Colts to begin sowing the seeds for a successful 2014 and beyond.

Ceiling = 8-8

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

2. Houston Texans



2011 Record = 10-6, First in AFC South, Lost in AFC Divisional Game
2012 Schedule = MIA, @ JAC, @ DEN, TEN, @ NYJ, GB, BAL, BYE, BUF, @ CHI, JAC, @ DET, @ TEN, @ NE, IND, MIN, @ IND

Franchise Players = QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, T Duane Brown, DE J.J. Watt, LB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan Joseph

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB Bradie James, S Alan Ball
Potential Impact Rookies = Whitney Mercilius (Illinois) 1-26

Outlook = Houston overcame a season ending injury to Matt Schaub and season-long hamstring troubles for Andre Johnson to win the franchise’s first division title and playoff game. The offensive line is strong enough that it doesn’t matter whether Arian Foster or Ben Tate is carrying the ball. With a healthy Johnson (which could be hard to ask for, he’s already had hamstring troubles in training camp) this offense could return to it’s 2009-10 level of production. My worries aren’t with the Texans offense, but their defense. Mario Williams left (for a ginormous amount of money) for the Buffalo Bills, leaving Houston without one of the ten best defensive players in the league. For Houston’s defense to maintain their high level of play from last season, J.J. Watt or Brian Cushing needs to fill that void. Color me a pessimist, but I don’t see that happening. 

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

1. Tennessee Titans



2011 Record = 9-7, Second in AFC South

2012 Schedule = NE, @ SD, DET, @ HOU, @ MIN, PIT, @ BUF, IND, CHI, @ MIA, BYE, @ JAC, HOU, @ IND, NYJ, @ GB, JAC

Franchise Players = QB Jake Locker, RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt, T Michael Roos, DE Derrick Morgan, S Michael Griffin

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Steven Hutchinson, LB Kamerion Wimbley
Potential Impact Rookies =WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) 1-20

Outlook = Tennessee has more question marks than your average team. Will Jake Locker take the reigns at QB and raise the Titans to another level? Will Chris Johnson return to the form he showed before he was paid a significant amount of money? Will Kenny Britt stay out of jail? If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, Tennessee could be a surprisingly tough opponent for teams like New England, Chicago, and Green Bay. I’ll buy in on Locker and Johnson, which should be enough for Tennessee to take a weak division.

Ceiling = 11-5

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7


Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East

Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West

2012 Blow-Out the Budget Fantasy Football Draft Guide

            Instead of a month long mock draft, we’re going to cram all of No Credentials fantasy football draft advice into one column. Why you ask? Here are a couple reasons.

1. Being the most popular fantasy sport, it lends itself to being the most unpredictable type of draft to predict. People draft more often based on personal bias, team allegiance, or a multitude of other reasons that have very little to do with statistical probability. You shouldn’t be shocked to end up in a draft where one person drafts “all Broncos” because that’s their favorite team.
2. Fantasy football is the most luck driven fantasy sport. With the season being so short (compared with other leagues), all it takes is one torn ACL for your first round pick (see Jamaal Charles last season, or Tom Brady in 2008) and it’s over. You need an awful lot of things that aren’t in your control to go right in order for your team to win.

          With that said, if you’re invested enough, you can give yourself the best chance to win. I’m not going to say whether or not you should take Cam Newton or Tom Brady first, but instead we’re going to group players at different positions into tiers. It sounds complicated, but we’ll look at all the positions and then explain how tiers can help shape your draft strategy.

QB

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Cam Newton

Tom Brady

Michael Vick

Matthew Stafford

Eli Manning

Tony Romo

Philip Rivers

Matt Ryan

Jay Cutler

Peyton Manning

Ben Roethlisberger

Matt Schaub

Carson Palmer

Josh Freeman

Robert Griffin III

Joe Flacco

Andy Dalton

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Andrew Luck

Jake Locker

Matt Flynn

Mark Sanchez

Sam Bradford

Alex Smith

Matt Cassell

Christian Ponder

Tier 1 – These guys are the folks you will not take out of the starting lineup, regardless of who their opponent is. Regardless of which order you’d pick these guys in, they will all be off the board within the first 12 picks. You should not draft another quarterback if you pick one of these guys.

Tier 2 – Tier 2 consists of guys that have the potential to hit the Tier 1 level, but have a little more risk attached. Michael Vick was the top points per game producer in 2010, so his current average price (he’s going 44^th in Yahoo! drafts) is worth it. Stafford is going at the price of a Tier 1, but I have my concerns. He’s only been healthy for one full season, and has a history of shoulder issues. Call me stubborn, but I want to see one more year of good health before I use a second round pick on Stafford. Manning and Romo are surprisingly similar (at least in the regular season), capable of single handedly winning and losing a week for your team. A backup quarterback can be picked as insurance in case of injury or a string of poor performances (although I wouldn’t recommend it), but you should not bench one of the Tier 2 players because your backup has a favorable match up.

Tiers 3 and 4 – Players who unless they establish trust, are best used in platoons. If the draft breaks right, you could grab two guys from these groups. For example, pairing Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan (currently going in the ninth and tenth rounds) makes a great deal of sense if you miss out on the first two tiers.

Tier 5 – This group is full of players who have too much unpredictability. Roethlisberger would be a Tier 3 if it weren’t for his “tiny little torn rotator cuff”. Schaub is an injury waiting to happen. Carson Palmer is a sneaky sleeper, but shouldn’t be drafted as your starter. Josh Freeman’s might have the largest gap between his ceiling and his floor.

Tier 6 –I’m pessimistic of RGIII, but will grant that his fantasy potential is greater than fellow rookie Andrew Luck. However, his slight build and lack of a go-to wide receiver (sorry Santana Moss fans) make me believe he will not duplicate Cam Newton’s 2011 season.

Tiers 7 and 8 – None of these guys should be drafted (unless you’re in a giant league, or a league that starts two QBs every week), but keep them in mind for bye weeks.

RB

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

Arian Foster

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Matt Forte

Adrian Peterson

Trent Richardson

DeMarco Murray

Jamaal Charles

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ryan Matthews

Doug Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Fred Jackson

Steven Jackson

Reggie Bush

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

Darren Sproles

Beanie Wells

Ahmad Bradshaw

Willis McGahee

Jonathan Stewart

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Roy Helu

Shonn Greene

Isaac Redman

Stevan Ridley

Jahvid Best

Donald Brown

James Starks

DeAngelo Williams

C.J. Spiller

Mark Ingram

Pierre Thomas

Ben Tate

Peyton Hillis

Ryan Williams

Toby Gerhart

Michael Bush

David Wilson

Jacquizz Rodgers

LeGarrette Blount

Felix Jones

Mikel LeShoure

Rashad Jennings

Joe McKnight

Daniel Thomas

Tier 1 – Here are the only three runningbacks I can sign off on as sure things (barring one unlucky blow to the ACL). Rice, McCoy, and Foster should never be benched regardless of opponent. Even against a stout run defense, all three backs are effective enough in the passing game to provide production. In some order, these three should be the first players off the board, regardless of scoring format.

Tier 2 – Every back in Tier 2 is capable of being top scoring fantasy runningback, but have some sort of question mark. Most are injury related, Chris Johnson is performance related (he’s only three years removed from a 2,000 yard season), and Maurice Jones-Drew is contract related. All of these backs need to be started when healthy. Tier 2 runningbacks will be off the board between the middle of the first through the end of the second round, and are the most likely players to sink your team.

Tier 3 and 4 – Players who have more question marks than Tier 2, with the added caveat that they are not automatic starts. Tier 3 backs can be drafted as your second runningback, while tier 4s are best served being no better than your third option.

Tier 5 – Here’s a group of backs that appear to have the inside track on playing time, but have never demonstrated before that they can handle a full workload. The only exception in this group is DeAngelo Williams, who hasn’t been a force since single-handedly deciding fantasy leagues in the 2008 fantasy playoffs.

Tier 6 – Backs with no immediate path to the majority of carries, but if they rose up to number one on the depth chart, would be viable fantasy starters. All of these players should be drafted as either handcuffs for your starters or lottery tickets. At least three of the Tier 6 backs will make a significant impact this season.

WR

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Roddy White

A.J. Green

Andre Johnson

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

Wes Welker

Hakeem Nicks

Greg Jennings

Mike Wallace

Steve Smith

Brandon Lloyd

Miles Austin

Julio Jones

Antonio Brown

Dez Bryant

Demaryius Thomas

Jordy Nelson

Marques Colston

Dwayne Bowe

Stevie Johnson

Percy Harvin

Eric Decker

Jeremy Maclin

Vincent Jackson

Kenny Britt

DeSean Jackson

Reggie Wayne

Pierre Garcon

Robert Meachem

Sidney Rice

Torrey Smith

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Denarius Moore

Justin Blackmon

Mike Williams

Malcolm Floyd

Santana Moss

Michael Crabtree

Greg Little

Anquan Boldin

Michael Floyd

Santonio Holmes

Laurent Robinson

Nate Burleson

Randy Moss

Lance Moore

Nate Washington

Mario Manningham

Davone Bess

Danny Amendola

Jon Baldwin

Tier 1 – The only two receivers in fantasy that are “quarterback proof”, meaning that they will still produce regardless of who is throwing too them. Both will be taken in the first round in 12-team leagues, with Megatron warranting consideration as a top pick in PPR leagues.

Tiers 2, 3, and 4 – All of these receivers can be targeted as your two starting wide receivers. There isn’t a great deal of difference between the second and fourth tiers, so consider that when you’re thinking about taking Roddy White in the second round.

Tiers 5 and 6 – Players that have had success in the past, but are either in new situations, or are boom or bust players (think 160 yards and two touchdowns or one catch for nine yards). I wouldn’t feel great about having one of these guys as my second wide receiver, but all of them have the potential to be top-10 fantasy producers.

Tier 7 – All of these guys should be drafted, but until they establish a track record of success, should be bye week options only.

TE

Jimmy Graham

Rob Gronkowski

Antonio Gates

Vernon Davis

Aaron Hernandez

Jermichael Finley

Jason Witten

Fred Davis

Jacob Tamme

Brandon Pettigrew

Jermaine Gresham

Tony Gonzalez

Brent Celek

Jared Cook

Owen Daniels

Coby Fleener

Dallas Clark

Greg Olsen

Tony Moeaki

Ed Dickson

Kyle Rudolph

Heath Miller

Kellen Winslow

Mercedes Lewis

Martellus Bennett

Todd Heap

Joel Dreessen

Anthony Fasano

Tier 1 – Graham and Gronkowski are in a class by themselves. I’d personally consider either of them at the end of the first if all the Tier 1 players at the other three positions were off the board.

Tier 2 – Antonio Gates is the only player that if healthy, is capable of delivering Tier 1 production. Similar to Michael Vick, he’s going in the middle of the fifth round in 10-team leagues, making him a potential league-swinging player.

Tier 3 – Solid, proven commodities that may not produce 12 receptions, 150 yards, and three touchdowns in a single game, but will be reliable sources of scoring week after week.

Tier 4 – Players that don’t have the track record of the Tier 3 group, but are also capable of being reliable weekly starters. Davis in particular is an intriguing player if you miss out on the top-end talent.

Tier 5, 6, and 7 – Best served as bye week substitutes (although one of these guys would have to start in a 12-team league).

            If you’re looking for defense and kicker rankings, you’ve come to the wrong place. Here are a few rules No Credentials has followed over the years (with a decent amount of success.

-         Don’t draft a kicker until the final round. If you do, you’re a dumbass (sorry, there’s no other way to word it).

-         Depending on your league scoring settings, it’s best to wait until the next to last round to snag a defense (I will only adjust this if the league I’m in awards extra points than usual for fewer points allowed). If you wait on defense, you can play the match-ups every week using the waiver wire. The value of hitting it big with a runningback you took in the ninth round is considerably greater than the value of a third ranked defense you could’ve taken at the same point. With that said…

-         Hoard runningbacks and wide receivers like they are canned fruit and the plague is about to hit. These are the positions where out of the blue breakouts are the most likely, and they also are the spots hit the hardest by injuries.

-         Only draft one tight end. It’s a really deep position this year, and the waiver wire will have plenty of options for you if you need to cover a bye or deal with an injury. Even if you draft a second tight end and he breaks out, you’ll have a very hard time moving him via trade because everyone else should have a solid one on his or her roster.

-         Before determining the number of players you need to take at each position, you need to understand the quality of players you have taken in the first six. Let’s assume you are building a 15-man roster. Three spots are going to be eaten up by a tight end, defense, and kicker (if you take a back-up at any of those positions, remember, you’re a dumb ass), so that leaves you 12 spots for three positions. If you end up with one of the Tier 1 or Tier 2 quarterbacks, you shouldn’t take a back up (use the waiver wire to find a QB with a favorable match-up in your starter’s bye week), giving you 11 spots to play with. If you’re first pick was Calvin Johnson, you should finish with four or five wide receivers drafted, and six or seven runningbacks. If Ray Rice was your first pick, you should flip that. Lastly, if you took a quarterback in the first round, you should aim for a six-five split between receiver and runningback.   

            Now it’s time to explain how tiers can be used to help plan your draft. At some point, you’ll eventually find out when you’re picking in the first round. Whether you have three weeks or 30 minutes, that’s plenty of time to figure out a strategy.

            As soon as you know where you are picking, you need to determine what your first priority is. For example, if you are dead set on landing a top tier runningback, you need to assess if that’s possible based on the average spot they are being taken (this info is available through both ESPN and Yahoo’s fantasy pages). Based on my tiers, I would probably need a top-3 pick to make this happen. If you decide you want Gronkowski or Graham, you know you need to snag them before the middle of the second. If you’re fine landing a second tier quarterback, you know you can draft one in the fifth or sixth rounds. In theory, it makes sense to wait as long as possible to grab the last player left in a given tier. For example, if there are three Tier 3 receivers left, and you have two of the next four picks, it’s wise to address another position before grabbing one of the receivers. Hell, if two of them are taken before you pick again, your decision is that much easier. 
           What would No Credentials ideal draft look like? I hate to be a politician, but that would all depend on where I’m picking and the size of the league. If I’m in an eight or ten team league, I’m waiting on quarterback. 12 or more teams, and I’m coming out with no worse than a Tier 2 QB. I’d really want one of the Tier 1 runningbacks, but if I don’t land a top-3 pick, would probably plan on drafting seven of them during the draft. The odds of me taking a Tier 1 tight end are slim, unless I’m buried low in the first round.
           For grins and giggles, here’s a breakdown of which positions I would take in each round if I landed the third pick in a snake style, 12-team draft.

1. Tier 1 RB
2. Tier 2 RB
3. Tier 2 WR
4. Tier 2 or 3 WR
5. Tier 2 QB
6. Tier 3 TE
7. WR or RB
8. WR or RB
9. WR or RB
10. WR or RB
11. WR or RB
12. WR or RB
13. WR or RB
14. DEF
15. K (if you take one any sooner than this, remember, you're a dumbass)

          The most important thing with fantasy football? Have fun! It’s way too unpredictable and luck driven to get emotionally invested in. Fantasy football may be the simplest fantasy sport, but it’s also the most fun on game day. Good luck in your drafts, and have a fun fantasy season.