4. Cincinnati Bengals
2010 Record = 4-12, 4th in Division
Key Additions = LB Manny Lawson, CB Nate ClementsKey Losses = QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Ochocinco, WR Terrell Owens, CB Johnathan Joseph
Schedule = @ Browns, @ Broncos, 49ers, Bills, @ Jaguars, Colts, BYE, @ Seahawks, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Ravens, Browns, @ Steelers, Texans, @ Rams, Cardinals, Ravens
Real-Life Outlook = I don’t know exactly what the record is for teams that started a red-headed rookie at quarterback, but I feel like it’s probably not very good. Kudos to the folks down in Cincinnati for completely overturning the roster (except for the part where they haven’t moved Carson Palmer yet. Wouldn’t a couple of draft picks be worth more than quarterback who has no intention of playing for you ever again? Palmer’s value will only drop the longer he doesn’t play. Remember this when the Seahawks trade a sixth round pick for Palmer next season). The great Liam Neeson said in “Batman Begins”, “When a forest grows out of control, a purging fire is natural and necessary.” That quote definitely applies here. Cincinnati is going to be awful this season, but things are looking up for them.
Fantasy Outlook = Rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has the most potential of any Bengals players, but fellow rookie Andy Dalton (and his red hair) will hold Green back from being a fantasy monster this season. Green is currently ranked 31st by the fantasy experts at ESPN, which makes him a fringe #3 receiver or bye-week sub (depending on the size of your league). Cedric Benson is coming off an eventful off-season, but should be drafted by the ninth round as a third RB option. Tight end Jermaine Gresham shouldn’t be drafted, but monitor his performance the first couple of weeks to see if he clicks with Dalton. Rookie quarterbacks usually look for tight ends, so Gresham could be a solid PPR option. Ceiling = 6-10
Floor = 0-16No Credentials Prediction = 2-14
3. Cleveland Browns
2010 Record = 5-11, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = NoneKey Losses = DE Matt Roth, CB Eric Wright, S Abram Elam
Schedule = Bengals, @ Colts, Dolphins, Titans, BYE, @ Raiders, Seahawks, @ 49ers, @ Texans, Rams, Jaguars, @ Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ Cardinals, @ Ravens, Steelers
Real-Life Outlook = Remember when Cleveland smashed New England last year during the first week of November just two weeks after winning in New Orleans? Somehow this team only won three other games the rest of the season. It would’ve been very easy for Cleveland to take Julio Jones with the fifth pick in the draft to give Colt McCoy a viable wide receiver, but I like how Cleveland shipped the pick to Atlanta for five extra draft picks. With Mike Holmgren running the show, Browns’ fans should have confidence that those picks will be used well. Look for Cleveland to be in a good place in 2014.
With all that said, did you look at their schedule? Of their first eleven games, I’d give them at least a 40% chance of winning ten of them (their trip to Indianapolis being the one they’ll be heavy underdogs in). I could definitely see them starting the year 7-4 before losing their final five games (they play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice during this stretch, with a trip to Arizona stuck in the middle). To make a long story short, if you want to bet the over on Cleveland’s regular season win total (on Sportsbook.com, their over/under is 6.5), you have No Credentials full endorsement. Fantasy Outlook = It’s not smart to talk about Peyton Hillis before we discuss The Madden Curse. For those not in the know, this has to do with the Madden video game that comes out every year. Ever since players were first placed on the cover, it’s been misfortune for whoever was pictured. Here’s a list of what the curse has done in 12 years.
The Madden Curse took away any lateral agility Eddie George ever had.
The Madden Curse allowed Daunte Culpepper to set the record for most fumbles lost in a single season during the 2001 campaign. Then for good measure, The Madden Curse shredded both of his knees in 2005 and ’06.
The Madden Curse ended Marshall Faulk’s string of 1,000+ yard-rushing seasons. He retired two years after appearing on the cover in 2002.
The Madden Curse snapped Michael Vick’s leg in half during the 2003 pre-season.
The Madden Curse broke Ray Lewis’ wrist.
The Madden Curse first inflicted a sports hernia on Donovan McNabb, and then as a finishing move, tore his ACL.
The Madden Curse injured Shaun Alexander’s foot, causing him to miss six games the year after he won the league MVP.
The Madden Curse is responsible for Vince Young’s career missteps since his rookie year (if I typed everything that’s happened to him, this post would be an extra 1,500 words).
The Madden Curse coerced Brett Favre into sending a picture of his penis to Jenn Sterger.
The Madden Curse sprained Troy Polamalu’s MCL in the first game of the 2009 season, and then knocked him out of action again with a PCL injury. It’s interesting to note that Larry Fitzgerald was also on the cover with Polamalu that year, but survived. Apparently The Madden Curse can only knock out one player per season.
Finally, The Madden Curse forced Drew Brees to throw a career high 22 interceptions.
More than anything else, his presence on the cover of “Madden NFL 12” alone is reason for me to avoid Peyton Hillis. It’s not logical, but I’m not betting against a curse until someone is on the cover and wins the Super Bowl the same season.
To get back to the business of relevant fantasy advice, tight end Kellen Winslow is the only other Brown that should be drafted. He’s another solid late-round option at that position.Ceiling = 10-6
Floor = 6-10No Credentials Prediction = 8-8
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
2010 Record = 12-4, 1st in Division (Lost Super Bowl vs. Packers)
Key Additions = NoneKey Losses = None
Schedule = @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ Colts, @ Texans, Titans, Jaguars, @ Cardinals, Patriots, Ravens, @ Bengals, BYE, @ Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Browns
Real-Life Outlook = In the season immediately following Pittsburgh’s previous Super Bowl victories, they have failed to make the playoffs the following year. Perhaps coming off of a loss will make them a little less content, but I still think there will be speed bumps for them that will prevent Pittsburgh from winning the North. Maybe a weird home loss against Tennessee or Jacksonville sandwiched between odd road losses at Houston and Arizona. Despite the prediction of an uneven start, Pittsburgh easily has the weakest opposing schedule of any 2010 division winner. Barring significant injuries, there is no way they should lose any of their last five games. The weak schedule should be enough for Pittsburgh to land at least an AFC Wildcard spot.
Fantasy Outlook = Ben Roethlisberger will be either the 8th or 9th quarterback taken in your fantasy draft. You’re going to want to draft a decent back up, as Big Ben is prone to holding on to the ball to long and taking a beating. Rashard Mendenhall is a late first or early second round pick at runningback. I have a hunch that Pittsburgh is going to run the ball more this season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mendenhall finish with 1,500 rushing yards. Mike Wallace is the AFC’s answer to DeSean Jackson. With Hines Ward getting older (and slower), expect Wallace to set a new career high in receptions. Ward is a fringe #3 in a 12-team league, but probably should be the fourth or fifth wide out you draft. Pittsburgh is one of the few fantasy defenses that you will be able to start every week of the season. Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
1. Baltimore Ravens
2010 Record = 12-4, 2nd in Division (Lost in Divisional Round @ Steelers)
Key Additions = WR Lee Evans, FB Vonta Leach, S Bernard Pollard, RB Ricky Williams Key Losses = RB Willis McGahee, T Jared Gaither, CB Josh Wilson, S Dawan Landry, TE Todd Heap
Schedule = Steelers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Jets, BYE, Texans, @ Jaguars, Cardinals, @ Steelers, @ Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @ Browns, Colts, @ Chargers, Browns, @ Bengals
Real-Life Outlook = The addition of Lee Evans makes a huge difference for the Ravens offense. While he isn’t as dynamic as Mike Wallace, he still is the first legitimate deep threat Baltimore has had since the team moved to Baltimore in 1996. If Flacco and Evans click early, running lanes will open up for Ray Rice, and underneath patterns will be more accessible for Anquan Boldin. Baltimore’s secondary was leaky last season, but an improved offense will allow them to play with the lead more often. With their front seven able to pin their ears back and attack opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore should bounce back as a top-5 defensive unit.
Fantasy Outlook = It’s not all that often that a fullback is discussed in terms of fantasy, but that’s what I’m going to do here in relation to runningback Ray Rice. Baltimore was able to sign former Texans fullback Vonta Leach. Avid fantasy players may recall that Leach was Arian Foster’s lead blocker last season. Foster also just happened to be the top scoring player in fantasy football last season. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Rice gets a bump with a better fullback (and better offensive line play). If you can get him at any point after the sixth pick in your draft, you’ll be very fortunate.None of the other Ravens are elite fantasy options. Joe Flacco was a sleeper last season, but his disappointing 2010 drops him to the 15th ranked quarterback on Yahoo!. It would be best to use him in a platoon situation, or as a back-up to Michael Vick or Tony Romo. Anquan Boldin got off to hot start, but disappeared during the final four games of 2010 (only 8 receptions for 67 yards during the fantasy playoffs). The presence of Lee Evans should help a bit, but keep in mind that last season was only the third time in Boldin’s career that he appeared in all sixteen games. Lee Evans should be drafted as a back-up only. His addition to the team will help the offense, but don’t expect Evans to have a monster season.
Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 10-6No Credentials Prediction = 12-4
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