Showing posts with label A.J. Green. Show all posts
Showing posts with label A.J. Green. Show all posts

Monday, September 8, 2014

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (9/5-9/7)

10. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic Both Go Down in Semi-Finals of US Open
            Upsets are cool, until the two guys that pulled off the upsets face off in a Final no one cares about.

9. Brad Keselowski Secures Top Seed in The Chase
            A race billed as a last chance, no holds barred attempt to make the playoffs turned into a snooze-fest thanks to a dominant run by the 2012 champion.

8. Home Loss For Ohio State Caps Miserable Day For Big 10
            Following Michigan getting shut out at Notre Dame and Michigan State surrendering 28 unanswered points at Oregon, the Buckeyes looking mediocre at home was the last thing the conference needed.

7. Miami Dominates New England After Halftime, Wins 33-20
            If it wasn’t for some sloppy ball handling in the first half, the Dolphins could’ve won this game by four touchdowns.

6. Nelson Cruz Goes Bonkers Against Tampa Bay
            After missing the end of the 2013 season due to a steroid suspension, Cruz used the extra time off to figure out new ways to use performance-enhancing drugs without getting caught how to naturally improve at his craft.

5. Andrew Luck Leads Improbable Back Door Cover Against Broncos
            Indianapolis should’ve been a lot closer in this game, as they left at least 11 points on the table in the second half. There is a chance that they are better than we think.

4. Cincinnati Weathers Late Push From Ravens, Wins 23-16
            Steve Smith hit the way-back button with his go ahead touchdown, but then was quickly one-upped by superstar A.J. Green. This was a huge win for the Bengals, as it should silence some critics of The Red Rifle.
           
3. Steelers Nearly Implode, Survive Late Scare Against Cleveland
            After falling behind 27-3, at least Cleveland can take heart in the fact that they covered the point spread.
           
2. Buffalo Bills Pull Off a Shocking Overtime Win in Chicago
            There’s always one game a year in our Week 1 picks column that we don’t follow our preseason predictions closely enough and end up missing. At least it only happened once this year.

1. Matt Ryan Carries Falcons Past New Orleans
            For our money, Matt Ryan was by far the most impressive player in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE on Sunday. In other words, he was the opposite of Tony Romo. 

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

2014 AFC North Preview


4. Pittsburgh Steelers

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Browns, @ Ravens, @ Panthers, Buccaneers, @ Jaguars, @ Browns, Texans, Colts, Ravens, @ Jets, @ Titans, BYE, Saints, @ Bengals, @ Falcons, Chiefs, Bengals

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown, SS Troy Polamalu
Solid Contributors = WR Lance Moore, LG Ramon Foster, C Maurkice Pouncey, RG David DeCastro, DE Cameron Heyward, MLB Lawrence Timmons, OLB Jason Worilds
Impact Rookies = MLB Ryan Shazier (1-15, Ohio State), DE Stephon Tuitt (2-46, Notre Dame)

Good News = Pittsburgh has solidified the middle of it’s offensive line.
Bad News = Ike Taylor is beyond washed up.

Outlook = The Steelers are desperately in need of a full roster reboot, but the franchise is still committed to veterans who delivered two Super Bowl titles. With all that has been accomplished by Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, you can’t completely fault them. Big Ben was still hit a lot in 2013 (mostly due to miserable play from his offensive tackles), but at least there was some semblance of pass protection for him. A greater commitment to the running game would go a long way in helping, as better balance would keep Roethlisberger upright. Le’Veon Bell will be given the first crack at full-time duty, but free agent acquisition LeGarrette Blount was brought in to push him. Antonio Brown had a massive breakout campaign, and is set up once again for another elite fantasy season. Lance Moore was brought in to fill the chain moving void left by Emmanuel Sanders, and Markus Wheaton will be given every opportunity in his sophomore season to make an impact. A full season from Heath Miller would go a long way in solidifying the Steelers passing game.
            Defensively is where Pittsburgh’s real problems are, as there defense is filled with either players past their primes or youngsters that haven’t reached their potential yet. Troy Polamalu caused a lot of havoc last year with 5 forced fumbles, but his ball-playing skills are virtually non-existent. Pittsburgh treats Ike Taylor like he’s still as shut-down corner, which is either an extreme case of denial or desperation. Jason Worilds and Cameron Heyward both need to raise their games to return the Steelers defense to elite status.

Prediction = This is the year the Steelers wheels really fall off. Look for a full rebuild to begin in 2015. 4-12



3. Cleveland Browns

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Steelers, Saints, Ravens, BYE, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Falcons, @ Bills, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Ravens

Blue Chippers = WR Josh Gordon (sigh), LT Joe Thomas
High Quality Players = C Alex Mack, MLB Karlos Dansby, CB Joe Haden, SS Donte Whitner
Solid Contributors = TE Jordan Cameron, OLB Jabaal Sheard
Impact Rookies = CB Justin Gilbert (1-8, Oklahoma State), QB Johnny Fucking Football (1-22, Texas A&M), RG Joel Bitonio (2-35, Nevada)

Good News = No other team crushed the draft this year like the Cleveland Browns.
Bad News = Josh Gordon really likes marijuana.

Outlook = Since returning to the NFL in 1999, there hasn’t been a more consistently dysfunctional franchise than the Cleveland Browns (remember the Raiders actually won the AFC in 2002). 2014 is yet another season where the team features a new general manager (no love for Mike Lombardi, even after the Trent Richardson heist), a new Head Coach, and a new Week 1 quarterback. We’d be much higher (pun intended!) on Cleveland’s chances at sleeper status if it wasn’t for Josh Gordon. Gordon tested positive for marijuana, and since he’s a repeat offender, he could miss the entire season (it’s too bad he didn’t just beat the shit out of his fiancĂ©e like Ray Rice did, that would’ve only cost him two games. Good work Roger Goodell). Gordon was the MVP of all three of my fantasy teams last year, so No Credentials will dearly miss him. Without Gordon, Cleveland’s wide receivers are a collection of misfit toys. Earl Bennett is a decent fourth receiver, and I think Miles Austin and Nate Burleson already tore their hamstrings. Jordan Cameron will be the most reliable receiver from the tight end position, and it’s not unrealistic for him to be the second most valuable tight end in fantasy behind Jimmy Graham, regardless of which quarterback plays. Brian Hoyer was just named the starter today, but whether due to injury or poor performance, we expect to see Johnny Manziel by Week 10.
            Cleveland was actually a top-10 defensive unit last year, and with the addition of Justin Gilbert and Donte Whitner to the secondary, should continue to be the strength of the team. The secondary has a chance to be among the five best in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The Browns only face one top-10 offense from 2013 this season, so there is a chance they can steal some low scoring ball games.

Prediction = Barring a miracle Josh Gordon ruling that gets him on the field in October, Cleveland’s offense is going to be a problem, but at least a favorable schedule gives them a chance to sniff .500. 6-10



2. Baltimore Ravens

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Bengals, Steelers, @ Browns, Panthers, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Bengals, @ Steelers, Titans, BYE, @ Saints, Chargers, @ Dolphins, Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns

Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = RG Marshal Yanda, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb
Solid Contributors = WR Torrey Smith, WR Steve Smith, TE Dennis Pitta, LT Eugene Monroe, DE Terrell Suggs, DT Haloti Ngata
Impact Rookies = MLB C.J. Mosley (1-17, Alabama), DT Timmy Jernigan (2-48, Florida State), FS Terrance Brooks (3-79, Florida State)

Good News = The offensive line can’t play any worse than they did last year.
Bad News = How much more money do they owe Joe Flacco again?

Outlook = It’s hard to believe that a year ago at this team the Ravens were the defending Super Bowl champions after their mediocre 2013 campaign. The offense was abysmal, finishing the year as the fourth worst unit in football. Most of those troubles can be attributed to dreadful offensive line play. Joe Flacco was under constant duress, and whomever he handed the ball off too had a hard time just getting 3 yards per carry. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator should go along way in addressing those issues, as his zone-blocking scheme was effective in both Denver and Houston for many years. Eugene Monroe also gets a full off-season in the Ravens system after being acquired midseason last year from Jacksonville. Ray Rice will miss the first two games due to suspension, so Bernard Pierce will have a chance to seize a sizable workload. Pierce could be a better fit for Kubiak’s blocking schemes. Torrey Smith averaged over 17 yards per catch last year, and with better pass protection could see an up tick in usage. Steve Smith was brought in for the other starting spot, and Baltimore is looking for the same value out of him that they got from Anquan Boldin during their Super Bowl run. Dennis Pitta is Joe Flacco’s security blanket, and a full season from him would do wonders on third down.
            Even with younger players replacing veterans from the Super Bowl team and a sputtering offense, the defense nearly cracked the top-10 in total yards allowed. For the Ravens to return to the level of play from their hey-day, they will need to generate more negative plays. C.J. Mosley looks like the next in a long line of great Baltimore linebackers. Jimmy Smith was a first round pick in 2011, and this might be his last chance to play to his potential before Baltimore looks for another option at cornerback. Terrance Brooks was a steal in the third round, and projects to be an immediate starter.

Prediction = The offense will improve enough to keep the defense off the field more, and return the Ravens to playoff contention. 9-7


1. Cincinnati Bengals

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC North Champions, Lost AFC Wildcard Game
2014 Schedule = @ Ravens, Falcons, Titans, BYE, @ Patriots, Panthers, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars, Browns, @ Saints, @ Texans, @ Buccaneers, Steelers, @ Browns, Broncos, @ Steelers

Blue Chippers = LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins
High Quality Players = WR A.J. Green, OLB Vontaze Burfict
Solid Contributors = HB Giovanni Bernard, WR Marvin Jones, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Leon Hall, CB Adam Jones, FS Reggie Nelson
Impact Rookies = CB Darqueze Dennard (1-24, Michigan State)

Good News = Giovanni Bernard will be the feature back.
Bad News = Andy Dalton is still slated to be their quarterback if they have to play playoff games.

Outlook = Cincinnati has assembled arguably the deepest all around roster in the NFL, with talent at all the skill positions, a solid  offensive line, and a top-5 defense. Expanded workloads for Giovanni Bernard and Marvin Jones will take some defensive attention away from A.J. Green, and should propel the Bengals to even greater heights. The only question is the red head under center. Andy Dalton has been solid during his first three seasons during the regular season. He’s won 30 games in his pro career, and last year tossed a career high 33 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’s been so atrocious in his three career playoff games, even Tony Romo said, “Man this guy sucks in January” (EDITORS NOTE: Romo didn’t actually say that, but he should’ve). This year boils down to whether or not Dalton delivers the goods in the playoffs. The roster is vastly superior to the rest of the AFC North, so a division title is virtually assured. Dalton only needs to win one elimination game to quiet critics of the mammoth extension he inked this season.

Prediction = We’re guessing the Bengals win 11 games again before Dalton shits his pants again in the playoffs. Is it too early to wager on this? 11-5 

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

Monday, June 30, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Ranks

            We’ve already taken a look at quarterbacks and runningbacks, and now it’s time to dive into the deepest position in fantasy football.

 


Tier 1 = Megatron


C.Johnson, DET

            The only thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR league, he can go fifth or later.

Tier-2 = Next Best Things


D.Thomas, DEN
A.Green, CIN
D.Bryant, DAL

            These three were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round, which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.

Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones


J.Jones, ATL
A.Brown, PIT
B.Marshall, CHI
A.Jeffrey, CHI
R.Cobb, GB
K.Allen, SD
J.Nelson, GB

            Barring unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns, they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.

Tier-4 = High-End Twos


V.Jackson, TB
L.Fitzgerald, ARI
W.Welker, DEN
M.Crabtree, SF
A.Johnson, HOU
P.Garcon, WAS
V.Cruz, NYG

            Whether it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.

Tier-5 = League Swingers


T.Hilton, IND
P.Harvin, SEA
J.Edelman, NE
T.Smith, BAL
D.Jackson, WAS
M.Floyd, ARI
C.Patterson, MIN
M.Wallace, MIA
K.Wright, TEN
M.Colston, NO
R.White, ATL

            With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.

Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets


E.Sanders, DEN
S.Watkins, BUF
A.Dobson, NE
D.Bowe, KC
E.Decker, NYJ
R.Wayne, IND
T.Williams, DAL
R.Randle, NYG
M.Evans, TB
H.Nicks, IND
J.Maclin, PHI
B.Cooks, NO
R.Cooper, PHI
A.Boldin, SF
B.Hartline, MIA
J.Jones, OAK
D.Amendola, NE
S.Smith, BAL
D.Hopkins, HOU
S.Johnson, SF
G.Tate, DET
C.Shorts, JAC
M.Jones, CIN
T.Austin, STL

            If you’re participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith), sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.  

Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench


J.Hunter, TEN
J.Boykin, GB
M.Wheaton, PIT
K.Stills, NO
M.Austin, CLE
H.Douglas, ATL
M.Williams, BUF
G.Jennings, MIN
K.Benjamin, CAR
J.Matthews, PHI

            We don’t forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis, but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers


N.Washington, TEN
K.Thompkins, NE
J.Cotchery, CAR
N.Buerlson, CLE
R.Woods, BUF
R.Streeter, OAK
M.Brown, BAL
D.Baldwin, SEA
D.Rogers, IND
O.Beckham, NYG
B.Lafell, NE
D.Moore, OAK

            These will likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.

Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds 3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

2013 AFC North Preview

         We turn our attention to the AFC North, a.k.a. the only division that might be worse than the AFC East.


4. Cleveland Browns

 

2012 Record = 5-11, fourth in AFC North
2013 Schedule = Dolphins, @ Ravens, @ Vikings, Bengals, Bills, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chiefs, Ravens, BYE, @ Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, @ Patriots, Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers

Franchise Players = RB Trent Richardson, LT Joe Thomas, C Alex Mack, CB Joe Haden
Supporting Cast = WR Josh Gordon, LG Jason Pinkston, DE Ahtyba Rubin, DT Phil Taylor, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Paul Kruger, SS T.J. Ward
Notable Rookies = OLB Barkevious Mingo (LSU, 1-6), CB Leon McFadden (San Diego St., 3-68)

Offensive Outlook = It feels like a waste of time talking about an offense who’s second year quarterback is 29-years old, but in the interest of maintaining continuity, we’ll do it anyway. Trent Richardson is the centerpiece of the offense, and with Norv Turner taking over as offensive coordinator, Richardson will be sure to see a massive workload. Injuries have already hit the offensive line, so that is a concern for Richardson’s overall production. Cleveland has an interesting (that’s a better adjective than inexperienced) group of receivers that bring different skill sets to the table. Josh Gordon established himself as a quality deep threat, and is the clear #1 receiver. Greg Little has shown flashes as a third down target, but doesn’t utilize his size enough in the red zone. Davone Bess was acquired in a trade with Miami and figures to be heavily targeted on third down. Travis Benjamin is another speedy receiver who can work out of the slot, and tight end Jordan Cameron is a deep fantasy sleeper. An average quarterback could utilize all of these weapons, but unfortunately Brandon Weeden is still on top of the depth chart. Weeden. Weeden has a big arm, but isn’t effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read.
Defensive Outlook = Cleveland’s run defense was solid, but it’s secondary play was abysmal. Part of their issues have to do with Joe Haden missing five games last season (four of them because of a suspension). Haden has the skills to be a top-5 corner in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but needs to make more plays. Paul Kruger (the leader in sacks for the Super Bowl champions last year) and rookie Barkevious Mingo have been brought in to bolster a pass rush that was virtually non-existent last year. Upping the quarterback pressure will go along way in improving the pass defense. 

Ceiling = 7-9 
Floor = 2-14
Prediction = 4-12
            Cleveland has assembled some nice young pieces, but until it has a solid quarterback prospect in the fold, there’s littler reason for optimism.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in AFC North
2013 Schedule = Titans, @ Bengals, Bears, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Raiders, @ Patriots, Bills, Lions, @ Browns, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals, @ Packers, Browns

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey, SS Troy Polamalu
Supporting Cast = WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller (on PUP list through Week 6), DE Brett Keisel, MLB Lawrence Timmons, MLB Larry Foote, OLD LaMarr Woodley, OLB Jason Worilds, CB Ike Taylor, FS Ryan Clark
Notable Rookies = OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia, 1-17), RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St., 2-48), WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon St., 3-79), QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma, 4-115)

Offensive Outlook = On paper, Pittsburgh suffered the biggest free agent defection of the off-season with the loss of Mike Wallace. He was a field stretching threat that demanded attention on every snap. However, the Steelers do have some players with the potential to at least partially fill the void. Antonio Brown dealt with nagging injuries throughout the 2012 season, but a return to health could lead to Reggie Wayne like production for him. Emmanuel Sanders is slated to get the first crack to fill the deep threat role, but he hasn’t demonstrated in the past that he’s capable of doing it. Pittsburgh might eventually turn to third round pick Markus Wheaton, who on paper looks like a Mike Wallace clone. Pittsburgh’s running game was a mess that season, but it was hard to pinpoint if that had to with the runningbacks, the offensive line, or both groups. Second rounder Le’Veon Bell had a leg up to get the starting tailback gig, and he would’ve represented a massive upgrade over Jonathan Dwyer. Unfortunately, he’s now out for six to eight weeks. David DeCastro, last year’s first round pick, looks to rebound from a 2012 that was cut way to short by injury. He has the potential to form one of the best interior line duos with center Maurkice Pouncey. All of these adjustments will ultimately impact the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger. It’s unclear how much more of a beating Big Ben can take, so improved offensive line play is paramount to Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs.
Defensive Outlook = Pittsburgh led the league in total defense last year, only allowing 275.8 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers were unable to force turnovers. For the defense to return to the level of its last Super Bowl year in 2008-09, they will need to create game changing plays. The linebacking core is still the strength of the team, with arguably as much depth as any other team. LaMarr Woodley, Jason Worilds, and Jarvis Jones are three dynamic outside linebackers that can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. If Cortez Allen continues to make strides, Pittsburgh will have the best cornerback duo in the division. They already have the best safety duo, even with Troy Polamalu losing a step. The biggest question mark for the Steelers defense is nose tackle. Casey Hampton has manned that position for years, but this year he will be replaced by Steve McClendon. McClendon doesn’t have the size that is normally required for a 3-4 end, so hopefully for Pittsburgh fans he’s the second coming of Jay Ratliff.

Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 5-11
Prediction = 7-9
            Pittsburgh is in a state of transition, so it’s reasonable to expect growing pains. Look for another mediocre season before a return to Super Bowl contention in 2014.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in AFC North
2013 Schedule = @ Broncos, Browns, Texans, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Packers, @ Steelers, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Bears, Jets, Steelers, Vikings, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Bengals

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, RG Marshal Yanda, DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs
Supporting Cast = WR Torrey Smith, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta (Out for the season with a hip injury), RT Michael Oher, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb, K Justin Tucker
Notable Rookies = SS Matt Elam (Florida, 1-32), OLB Arthur Brown (Kansas St., 2-56)

Offensive Outlook = It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion that lost so many key players, but at least offensively the most important ones return. Joe Flacco played like a Greek God of quarterbacking last postseason, but it’s hard to forecast that effort continuing into the regular season. He’s solid, but the offense is at its best when it’s centered on Ray Rice. Rice is still a dynamic player (view his epic fourth and 28 conversion last year against San Diego as proof) that can carry an offense. Bernard Pierce made great impressions in a reserve role, and could be in line for increased carries. With the losses of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith will have to shoulder a heavier workload. He’s an elite route runner, which gives him a chance to transition from deep threat to primary receiver. Who ends up getting receptions other than Ray Rice or Smith is anyone’s guess.
Defensive Outlook = When’s the last time a defense lost two first ballot Hall of Famers in the same off-season? Sure Ray Lewis would probably have been suspended for steroids probably have lost a step if he came back, and Ed Reed has lost some of his range, but these were both emotional leaders of the Ravens defense for a long time. Add in the losses of Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe, and you appear to have a dramatic drop in talent on the Ravens defense. Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t bare. Terrell Suggs should be back close to full strength, and Chris Canty and Marcus Spears have been added to bolster the run defense. Terrance Cody and Haloti Ngata are also still in the fold. Elvis Dumervil has been added and will fill the void left by Kruger. He’s a superior pass rusher, but isn’t the same all around defender. Jameel McClain will start in place of Ray Lewis. Physically there won’t be a drop off (throw out the deer antler fueled playoff run for Lewis), but it’ll hard to quantify what the drop off in leadership will do to the defense. Lardarius Webb will make a comeback from a torn ACL, which will give Baltimore a shutdown corner.

Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 6-10
Prediction = 9-7
            It would be easy to predict a significant drop-off because of the players who won’t be returning, and just as easy to predict another Super Bowl contending run because they are the Ravens and that’s what they do. We’ll predict that they’ll scuffle a bit early before rounding into form by December.      
 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

 

2012 Record = 10-6, second in AFC North 

2013 Schedule = @ Bears, Steelers, Packers, @ Browns, Patriots, @ Bills, @ Lions, Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Browns, BYE, @ Chargers, Colts, @ Steelers, Vikings, Ravens

Franchise Players = WR A.J. Green, LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins
Supporting Cast = QB Andy Dalton, RB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, TE Jermaine Gresham, RG Kevin Zeitler, DT Domata Peko, DE Michael Johnson, MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB James Harrison, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Leon Hall, FS Reggie Nelson, P Kevin Huber
Notable Rookies = TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame, 1-21), RB Giovani Bernard (North Carolina, 2-37), DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist, 2-53)

Offensive Outlook = We’re pretty sure the Cincinnati Bengals are the first team since the merger to make the playoffs two straight seasons with a redheaded quarterback. Unfortunately, each playoff appearance ended with a beating in Houston. Andy Dalton has chemistry with A.J. Green (it would be hard for any NFL caliber quarterback to not be successful throwing the ball to him), but he hasn’t been effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read. Green is a top-5 wide receiver who demands double coverage on every play. The Bengals attempted to ease the pressure on Green by adding Tyler Eifert in the first round. Along with Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati will now have the best tight end duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. “The Firm” is still penciled in as the starting runningback, but it will be hard for Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis to not cede carries to talented rookie Giovani Bernard. If Bernard gets enough touches, he’s a solid bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Much like the rest of the offense (with the exception of Green), the offensive line is average. 
Defensive Outlook = There weren’t many defenses stronger down the stretch last season than the one employed by Cincinnati. Including their playoff loss to Houston, Cincinnati didn’t allow more than 20 points over their final nine games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was at the center of it, generating 12.5 sacks and providing stout run defense. Domata Peko and Michael Johnson were fantastic complimentary pieces to Atkins along the defensive line. Cincinnati struck gold last season with undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict, who shockingly led the Bengals in tackles a season ago. The secondary will get a boost from having a fully healthy Leon Hall at corner from the start of Week 1. He was recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t playing up to his usual standards until the final month of the season.

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 8-8
Prediction = 11-5
            We’re counting on a breakout from Bernard, and a consistent season of top-5 defense. The Bengals mediocre quarterback won’t bite them in the ass until the playoffs.
 

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Pre-Season Fantasy Football WR Ranks

          With the pass happy state of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, there are now more valuable fantasy wide receivers than there have ever been before. There’s still one player that is vastly superior to the rest of his peers, but there will be value to be had late if you pass on wide receivers in the early rounds.

 

Tier 1 – Megatron


1
C.Johnson, Lions

Much like Adrian Peterson, you shouldn’t need me to explain why Johnson is head and shoulders above rest of the wide receivers. What differentiates him from AP is the deep position he plays. As you’ll see, as you get deeper into this post, there’s a large quantity of wide receivers you should feel comfortable starting in a given week. There will be a difference in production between Calvin Johnson (who on average is coming off draft boards with the seventh pick) and Lance Moore (he’s a twelfth rounder), but it’s not as wide a gap as the difference between Adrian Peterson and Giovanni Bernard (both are ranked 34th at their respective positions by No Credentials). To make a long story short, the cost of not having an elite runningback is not worth adding Johnson to your roster. The only exception to this rule is if he falls to you at nine or ten, as you should be able to snag a Tier 2 runningback (think Alfred Morris or Trent Richardson) in the second. 


Tier 2 – Legit #1 Receivers


2
D.Bryant, Cowboys
3
B.Marshall, Bears
4
A.Green, Bengals
5
L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals
6
J.Jones, Falcons
7
A.Johnson, Texans
8
R.White, Falcons
9
D.Thomas, Broncos

I have a simple rule with this group…if it’s the third round, and Jimmy Graham is already off the board, I’m drafting one of these guys. That means Bryant, Marshall, Green, and Julio Jones are all too expensive for me.


Tier 3 – Low End #1s or High End #2s


10
V.Cruz, Giants
11
R.Wayne, Colts
12
V.Jackson, Buccaneers

Here are you fringe #1 receivers that have an extra question mark than their Tier 2 counterparts. Victor Cruz regressed after his ridiculous 2011 campaign to post stats that should be the norm for him. Reggie Wayne isn’t getting any younger, and Vincent Jackson has the most erratic starting quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE not named Blaine Gabbert.
           With all that said, these are the guys that I’m targeting to be a #1 or #2 receiver on my team. Cruz is the most expensive, but if I’m picking towards the end of the third round I’ll be happy to take him. You have the chance to snag Wayne or Jackson in the fourth or fifth round if you’re in a ten-team league, which is a tremendous value. If Josh Freeman gets his completion percentage closer to 60%, Jackson will put up Tier 2 numbers.


Tier 4 – League Deciders

13
H.Nicks, Giants
14
P.Harvin, Seahawks
15
M.Colston, Saints
16
A.Brown, Steelers
17
R.Cobb, Packers
18
D.Bowe, Chiefs
19
W.Welker, Broncos
20
J.Nelson, Packers
21
S.Smith, Panthers
22
T.Smith, Ravens

Other than the Tier 3 runningback group, this is the group that will swing the most fantasy league titles. Odds are good that one of these guys will be your #2 receiver (unless your of the opinion that Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb can deliver top 10 value, which I’m not). Harvin has the greatest per game upside, but how many games he will suit up for the Seahawks is difficult to project. I’m more bullish on Antonio Brown than most, but he’s the most accomplished receiver Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal.


Tier 5 – High Ceilings, Low Floors


23
E.Decker, Broncos
24
K.Britt, Titans
25
M.Wallace, Dolphins
26
D.Amendola, Patriots

Three out of four of these players belong together based on average draft position, but Kenny Britt is the one I’m either way to high on (no pun intended to those of you aware of Kenny Britt’s legal troubles) or a guy I’m ahead of the curve on. All four of these players have potential to produce top-15 value, but they are not without risk. Decker, Wallace, and Amendola are all going around the 50th pick, while you can get Britt sometime around the 11th round (I guess he’s ending up a bunch of my teams).


Tier 6 – Low Risk, High Upside


27
J.Maclin, Eagles
28
S.Johnson, Bills
29
M.Austin, Cowboys
30
P.Garcon, Redskins
31
D.Alexander, Chargers
32
J.Jones, Packers
33
J.Gordon, Browns

I like all of these guys as candidates to be the third wide receiver I take on my teams. Betty White has better knees than Danario Alexander, but if he can somehow stay on the field for a full season, he’ll produce top-15 value. 


Tier 7 – Your Bye Week Subs


34
L.Moore, Saints
35
A.Boldin, 49ers
36
M.Williams, Buccaneers
37
G.Jennings, Vikings
38
D.Moore, Raiders
39
E.Sanders, Steelers
40
T.Austin, Rams
41
D.Jackson, Eagles
42
T.Hilton, Colts
43
A.Jeffrey, Bears
44
C.Shorts, Jaguars
45
S.Rice, Seahawks

These are my ideal bye-week substitutes, with Tavon Austin and Alshon Jeffrey having the potential to elevate to must start status. Cecil Shorts demonstrated that he’s capable of producing top-10 value in spurts, but I’m not investing in any wide receiver dependant on the performance of Blaine Gabbert.


Tier 8 – Guys You Hopefully Don’t Plan on Starting Every Week


46
M.Floyd, Chargers
47
J.Blackmon, Jaguars
48
K.Wright, Titans
49
B.Hartline, Dolphins
50
C.Givens, Rams

           If you don’t land anyone from the previous group as your top bye week sub, this is what you’re stuck with. Justin Blackmon is a draft-an-stash candidate, as he will be missing the first four games of the season. Chris Givens showed big play ability last season, and is the type of player that can drop a random 25-point game any given week.

No Credentials Top-36, Cost Adjusted


            Based on the average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s which players I want the most on my fantasy teams. We upped the number to 36 for WRs because if you are in a league that offers a flex position, odds are it’s a wide receiver that will fill it.

V.Jackson, Buccaneers (35.1)
A.Johnson, Texans (30.8)
R.Wayne, Colts (42.2)
V.Cruz, Giants (28.7)
R.White, Falcons (27.5)
L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals (23.2)
D.Thomas, Broncos (22.3)
A.Brown, Steelers (58.9)
D.Bowe, Chiefs (42.7)
T.Smith, Ravens (50.2)
K.Britt, Titans (112.8)
J.Maclin, Eagles (99.9)
D.Alexander, Chargers (80.5)
H.Nicks, Giants (46.7)
M.Colston, Saints (38.5)
D.Amendola, Patriots (49.2)
S.Johnson, Bills (93.5)
M.Austin, Cowboys (95.4)
W.Welker, Broncos (43.4)
J.Gordon, Browns (111.9)
J.Jones, Falcons (17.7)
P.Harvin, Seahawks (30.3)
R.Cobb, Packers (30.6)
B.Marshall, Bears (16.1)
C.Johnson, Lions (7.0)
S.Smith, Panthers (60.8)
J.Jones, Packers (68.5)
P.Garcon, Redskins (65.9)
M.Williams, Buccaneers (105.9)
M.Wallace, Dolphins (53.5)
D.Bryant, Cowboys (14.8)
L.Moore, Saints (107.6)
E.Decker, Broncos (53.6)
J.Nelson, Packers (37.9)
A.Boldin, 49ers (102.3)
A.Green, Bengals (12.9)