2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receiver

            For years, wide receiver was a second-class citizen to runningbacks in the fantasy football world. Most would go RB-RB with their first two picks before even thinking about adding receivers. 2015 is ushering in a new era, as five wide receivers could conceivably be taken in the first round of a 12-team league. Even more incredibly, one of them isn’t named Calvin Johnson.

Tier-1 = The Elite

A.Brown, PIT

D.Bryant, DAL

D.Thomas, DEN

J.Jones, ATL

O.Beckham Jr., NYG

            In terms of per-game production, this group is head and shoulders above the rest of wide receiver field. It’s not necessarily that these guys have the highest ceilings, but their high floors make them the most reliable wide receivers in fantasy. All five are quarterback proof, and can be taken anywhere from the middle of the first round through the early second. We’re not as high on Beckham Jr. as most are due to his sketchy hamstrings (already causing issues in training camp) and the likelihood of statistical regression from his staggering second half performance in 2014.

Tier-2 = Solid #1s

C.Johnson, DET

A.Jeffrey, CHI

A.Green, CIN

J.Nelson, GB

R.Cobb, GB

M.Evans, TB

T.Hilton, IND

            Tier-2 isn’t far off of the first group, but a few question marks make them slightly riskier propositions. Of this group, Mike Evans has the best chance to leap into Tier-1 if Jameis Winston can be relatively functional under center for Tampa Bay. If you can somehow nab two receivers from the top-2 tiers, you’re in business.

Tier-3 = Serious Upside

J.Matthews, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

D.Hopkins, HOU

K.Benjamin, CAR

S.Watkins, BUF

            There is risk here, but also some serious profit potential in Tier-3. DeAndre Hopkins delivered a 1,200 yard season last year, and both Cooks and Watkins were on pace to do it before missing time with injuries. Jordan Matthews will move into a featured role in the Eagles offense with Jeremy Maclin out of town. Of the wide receivers, this tier has the best chance of deciding who wins your league. It’s a shame Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL, as there is no one on Carolina’s roster to fill even half of his expected production. 
  

Tier-4 = Solid #2s, Elite #3s

K.Allen, SD

E.Sanders, DEN

A.Johnson, IND

B.Marshall, NYJ

G.Tate, DET

C.Johnson, MIN

V.Jackson, TB

D.Jackson, WAS

J.Maclin, KC

            There are numbers to be had here, but the ceilings are low enough that this mostly veteran group is less desirable to No Credentials than the previous tier of youngsters. Keenan Allen has stated publicly he is in much better shape this off-season, and presents the best oppurtunity for top-10 production from this group. Charles Johnson has the most raw talent, but will likely be limited by a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Tier-5 = Assorted Range of Outcomes

J.Edelman, NE

A.Cooper, OAK

A.Robinson, JAC

T.Smith, SF

M.Bryant, PIT

P.Garcon, WAS

S.Smith Sr., BAL

M.Colston, NO

P.Harvin, BUF

K.Wright, TEN

M.Wallace, MIN

B.LaFell, NE

            Julian Edelman would be solidly in Tier-4 if not for Tom Brady’s suspension. In PPR leagues, you should still bump him up a group even if Brady’s suspension holds. Ideally you shouldn’t be relying on any of these receivers as a weekly starter, but if forced to do so you should draft two or three from this tier to give yourself a better chance of maximizing weekly match-ups.

Tier-6 = Overpriced Brand Names

R.White, ATL

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

E.Decker, NYJ

A.Boldin, SF

V.Cruz, NYG

            The name of the tier pretty much says it all. We’re not reaching for anyone out of this group, unless it’s in the thirteenth round of a draft or at the cost of $1 in an auction.

Tier-7 = Lottery Tickets

M.Jones, CIN

K.Britt, STL

R.Randle, NYG

S.Johnson, SD

M.Floyd, ARI

J.Landry, MIA

D.Adams, GB

T.Williams, DAL

J.Brown, ARI

J.Hunter, TEN

D.Baldwin, SEA

N.Toon, NO

A.Hurns, JAC

R.Woods, BUF

N.Agholer, PHI

K.Stills, MIA

D.Parker, MIN

B.Perriman, BAL

C.Latimer, DEN

D.Moncrief, IND

C.Matthews, SEA

M.Wheaton, PIT

            Here is the list of guys you should be looking at late in your draft or auction instead of using a tenth round pick on a kicker. Most of the guys listed here are either an injury or solid quarterback play away from having plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs

M.Crabtree, OAK

C.Shorts III, HOU

E.Royal, CHI

D.Bowe, CLE

B.Quick, STL

M.Floyd, SD

M.Sanu, CIN

S.Bailey, STL

G.Jennings, MIA

            I guarantee when one or two of your receivers is on a bye week, one of these guys will be on the waiver wire to fill in if needed.

Tier-9 = Joe Dirt

C.Beasley, DAL

            We love Cole Beasley here at No Credentials, and even if we would never in a million years waste a fantasy pick on him, we had to give him his own tier.

When to Draft Wide Receivers

            Wide Receiver has plenty of depth, so other than quarterback, it will be the hardest position to screw up on your fantasy roster. The current average draft prices give you a high probability of ending up with a Tier-1 or 2 receiver, a Tier-3 receiver, and a Tier-4 receiver as your starting trio. If you’re picking late in the first round in a 12-team league, it’s highly likely you could pair Demaryius Thomas with Julio Jones (I like the sound of that duo in a PPR league). The confidence you have in your starters will determine how many backup receivers you draft. A good rule of thumb is to only spend two bench spots on receivers, and save as many as possible for running backs. Ultimately, it will be hard for you not to have three quality receivers, but when you take them will impact the value you get from the other positions on your roster.

2014 NFC South Preview

4. Carolina Panthers

2013 Record = 12-4, NFC South Champions, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Lions, Steelers, @ Ravens, Bears, @ Bengals, @ Packers, Seahawks, Saints, @ Eagles, Falcons, BYE, @ Vikings, @ Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @ Falcons

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Mike Tolbert, DE Greg Hardy, MLB Luke Kuechly, OLB Thomas Davis
Solid Contributors = QB Cam Newton, WR Jerricho Cotchery, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei, DT Kawann Short
Impact Rookies = DE Kony Ealy (2-60, Missouri)

Good News = Carolina has the strongest front seven in the league.

Bad News = Who is Cam Newton going to throw too again?

Outlook = No team took as many hits too it’s overall talent level than Carolina during the off-season. They lost a solid left tackle, their entire wide receiver core, and didn’t retain any member of their starting secondary. Cam Newton is probably the only quarterback in the league that could be successful with a receiving core this bad, but it’s a tall order. Most of Carolina’s offensive hopes hinge on rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He has the size, but is a raw talent who doesn’t project as a go-to receiver right out of the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen is the most reliable receiver Newton has. If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receptions, he’s a good one. Carolina’s receiver problems are compounded by a weakened offensive line, which will hinder their running game.

            Carolina’s front seven is sensational that needs to play at peak level every week to cover for a weak secondary. Greg Hardy’s status is up in the air after off the field issues, but there’s enough depth for the Panthers to get by without him. Luke Kuechly was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and will need to replicate that for Carolina to have any chance to return to the playoffs. Roman Harper is washed up, and hopefully for the Panthers sake will not have to make too many plays in deep coverage.
Prediction = We love Cam Newton, but there’s too many obstacles here for him to overcome. Only when the Panthers are out of salary cap Hell will they return to playoff contention. 6-10

3. Atlanta Falcons

2013 Record = 4-12, Third in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Saints, @ Bengals, Buccaneers, @ Vikings, @ Giants, Bears, @ Ravens, Lions, BYE, @ Buccaneers, @ Panthers, Browns, Cardinals, @ Packers, Steelers, @ Saints, Panthers

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
Solid Contributors = WR Roddy White, RG Jon Asamoah, DT Paul Soliai, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Desmond Trufant
Impact Rookies = RT Jake Matthews (1-6, Texas A&M), DE Ra’Shede Hageman (2-37, Minnesota)

Good News = Matt Ryan is coming off his most inspiring campaign playing behind a battered offensive line in 2013.

Bad News = The offensive line is still ill equipped to deal with the defenses in the AFC South.

Outlook = After averaging 12 wins a year between 2010 and 2012, Atlanta posted a third of that total in 2013. Injuries to star wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White contributed to their issues, but the real issue was losing the war in the trenches. Atlanta was thirty-first against the run, and Matt Ryan was assaulted by opposing defenses. The Falcons bolstered the right side of the line by drafting Jake Matthews and signing Jon Asamoah, but Sam Baker is probably the worst starting left tackle in the league. He was just carted of the field tonight, and while we don’t root for injuries, long term it wouldn’t be bad for the Falcons to try someone else on Matt Ryan’s blindside. An awful runningback core further hinders Ryan. Stevan Jackson is washed up, and Jacquizz Rodgers only managed 3.5 yards per carry.

            Atlanta didn’t make any major moves to upgrade a defense that was porous against the run, and not much better against the pass. The Falcons have been in desperate need of an elite pass rusher since John Abraham’s best years. Their secondary would look a lot better if the front seven could get to the quarterback, as they were asked to hold up for long periods of times in coverage.
Prediction = Better targets for Ryan will add a few wins, but an unforeseen improvement on the defensive side of the ball will be needed to get Atlanta back into playoff contention. 7-9

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Panthers, Rams, @ Falcons, @ Steelers, @ Saints, Ravens, BYE, Vikings, @ Browns, Falcons, @ Redskins, @ Bears, Bengals, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Packers, Saints

Blue Chippers = DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Lavonte David

High Quality Players = WR Vincent Jackson
Solid Contributors = HB Doug Martin, LT Anthony Collins, RT Demar Dotson, DE Michael Johnson, CB Alterraun Verner
Impact Rookies = WR Mike Evans (1-7, Texas A&M), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-38, Washington

Good News = Lovie Smith is restoring many of the core principles that were put in place when Tony Dungy was in Tampa.

Bad News = Journeyman Josh McCown doesn’t inspire confidence for a surprising playoff run.

Outlook = Offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play were the undoing of the 2013 Buccaneers, and we’re still projecting those areas to be trouble spots this year. Even after Mike Glennon showed some promise behind a shoddy offensive line, Tampa made the curious choice of bringing in Josh McCown. McCown put up massive numbers in relief of an injured Jay Cutler for Chicago, and he does have a similar set of receivers to work with that he had last year with the Bears. We expect him to have a short leash if Tampa Bay starts off slow. Doug Martin was also hampered by the offensive line last season, and then was lost for the year in late October. Mike Evans profiles as a red zone monster, and the perfect compliment to Vincent Jackson.

            Even without Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers should boast one of the top defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Lovie Smith is bringing the famed “Tampa 2” defense back home, and the Bucs have the talent to execute it. Pro Bowler Alterraun Verner was brought in from Tennessee to replace Revis. Safeties Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson under whelmed last year, but have the potential to form an elite safety duo. Gerald McCoy is a monster in the middle of the defensive line who dominates against the run and the pass. Michael Johnson was brought in to ease some pressure off McCoy. Lavonte David at times looks like a Derrick Brooks clone, and should thrive in Smith’s system.
Prediction = They will be competitive, and at times a total pain in the ass to play, but inconsistent offensive line play will mire the Buccaneers in mediocrity. 8-8

1. New Orleans Saints

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in NFC South, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Falcons, @ Browns, Vikings, @ Cowboys, Buccaneers, BYE, @ Lions, Packers, @ Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, Panthers, @ Bears, Falcons, @ Buccaneers

Blue Chippers = QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, FS Jairus Byrd

High Quality Players = HB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, RT Zach Strief, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Keenan Lewis
Solid Contributors = LG Jahri Evans, RG Ben Grubbs, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Junior Galette, CB Champ Bailey, SS Kenny Vaccaro
Impact Rookies = WR Brandin Cooks (1-20, Oregon State), CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2-58, Nebraska)

Good News = Carolina is the only team New Orleans will face in a road game that finished last season above .500.

Bad News = This is the most unproven receiving core Drew Brees has ever had with the Saints.

Outlook = A historic defensive turnaround spearheaded New Orleans’ postseason return, and is still the reason the Saints have the best chance of unseating the Seahawks and 49ers for a Super Bowl berth. A perfect storm of young talent clicking in Rob Ryan’s system and the arrival of Keenan Lewis led to the Saints finishing fourth in total defense. Lewis was the key player, as after solid years with Pittsburgh he suddenly morphed into a shutdown corner. Jairus Byrd was arguably the most important free agent acquisition by any team during the off-season, and he will fit perfectly with second year safety Kenny Vaccaro. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette thrived in Ryan’s attacking defense, and should at least replicate their sack totals from a year ago.

            For the first time in many years, there are actually more questions about the Saints offense. The offensive line was shaky at times during the early part of the season, but came around once Terron Armstead was installed at left tackle. A full off-season prepping for the position should raise his play another level. Chain moving machine Lance Moore is gone, as well as Darren Sproles, who has been the elite receiving back of the past decade. Pierre Thomas actually posted more receptions than Sproles did last year, so they should fill in for him just fine. Rookie Brandin Cooks is also being counted on to fill some of the Sproles void on bubble screens. Along with Cooks, Kenny Stills also needs to make a consistent impact. He only caught 32 passes last year, but averaged an eye popping 20 yards per catch. The uncertainty at receiver is not as worrisome with the presence of Jimmy Graham, who is the elite receiving tight end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Fortunately for New Orleans his contract situation was resolved before training camp.   
Prediction = With an extremely favorable schedule, New Orleans has a great chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. Their home date with the 49ers in Week 10 could end up determining who has home field throughout the playoffs. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2014 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Ranks

            We’ve already taken a look at quarterbacks and runningbacks, and now it’s time to dive into the deepest position in fantasy football.

 



Tier 1 = Megatron

C.Johnson, DET

            The only thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR league, he can go fifth or later.

Tier-2 = Next Best Things

D.Thomas, DEN

A.Green, CIN

D.Bryant, DAL

            These three were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round, which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.

Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones

J.Jones, ATL

A.Brown, PIT

B.Marshall, CHI

A.Jeffrey, CHI

R.Cobb, GB

K.Allen, SD

J.Nelson, GB

            Barring unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns, they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.

Tier-4 = High-End Twos

V.Jackson, TB

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

W.Welker, DEN

M.Crabtree, SF

A.Johnson, HOU

P.Garcon, WAS

V.Cruz, NYG

            Whether it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.

Tier-5 = League Swingers

T.Hilton, IND

P.Harvin, SEA

J.Edelman, NE

T.Smith, BAL

D.Jackson, WAS

M.Floyd, ARI

C.Patterson, MIN

M.Wallace, MIA

K.Wright, TEN

M.Colston, NO

R.White, ATL

            With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.

Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets

E.Sanders, DEN

S.Watkins, BUF

A.Dobson, NE

D.Bowe, KC

E.Decker, NYJ

R.Wayne, IND

T.Williams, DAL

R.Randle, NYG

M.Evans, TB

H.Nicks, IND

J.Maclin, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

R.Cooper, PHI

A.Boldin, SF

B.Hartline, MIA

J.Jones, OAK

D.Amendola, NE

S.Smith, BAL

D.Hopkins, HOU

S.Johnson, SF

G.Tate, DET

C.Shorts, JAC

M.Jones, CIN

T.Austin, STL

            If you’re participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith), sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.  

Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench

J.Hunter, TEN

J.Boykin, GB

M.Wheaton, PIT

K.Stills, NO

M.Austin, CLE

H.Douglas, ATL

M.Williams, BUF

G.Jennings, MIN

K.Benjamin, CAR

J.Matthews, PHI

            We don’t forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis, but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers

N.Washington, TEN

K.Thompkins, NE

J.Cotchery, CAR

N.Buerlson, CLE

R.Woods, BUF

R.Streeter, OAK

M.Brown, BAL

D.Baldwin, SEA

D.Rogers, IND

O.Beckham, NYG

B.Lafell, NE

D.Moore, OAK

            These will likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.

Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds 3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.