No
Credentials has already told you when to draft your kicker and defense, and now
it’s time to talk about actual players. The sadness that is Deflategate is
still not resolved, so we’ll continue our fantasy football preview in reverse
order. We start with arguably the coolest person on planet Earth.
Tier 1 = Gronk
R.Gronkowski, NE
Gronk
surpasses Jimmy Graham as the lone tight end who warrants first round pick
consideration this season. We don’t believe he can stay healthy again, but the
chance he does is well worth the risk if you miss out on the top-tier
runningbacks. His per-game production is vastly superior to any other tight end
in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
Tier-2 = Best Guys That Aren’t Gronk
J.Graham, SEA
Z.Ertz, PHI
G.Olsen, CAR
M.Bennett, CHI
T.Kelce, KC
We were
ready to put Jimmy Graham in a tier by himself, but when he told the media that
75% of his job now is blocking, that gives us reason for concern. Seattle
doesn’t chuck the ball nearly as much as the Saints, and we don’t expect that
philosophy to change just because Graham is in the fold. His value will be much
more dependant on his touchdown total, which is always a risky proposition.
As for the
rest of the group, these are all very good starters who could chip in 70+ receptions
and 800+ yards. Zach Ertz is our favorite non-Graham tight end here, as the
loss of Jeremy Maclin should divert even more passes his way. We’re not as high
on Travis Kelce as most of the fantasy football community is, but we wouldn’t
be bummed out if he ended up on one of our teams.
Tier-3 = Low Ceiling Starters
J.Witten, DAL
J.Cameron, MIA
J.Thomas, JAC
O.Daniels, DEN
D.Walker, TEN
Here are
your options if you choose to wait on drafting a tight end. In PPR formats this
group isn’t that far off the second tier. In terms of raw talent Jordan Cameron
belongs in the second tier, but we’re not sold entirely on Ryan Tannehill’s
ability to utilize him. Julius Thomas also fits this description, but unlike
Cameron, doesn’t have a history of success without Peyton Manning throwing him
the ball.
Tier-4 = Lottery Tickets
D.Allen, IND
J.Reed, WAS
V.Davis, SF
L.Green, SD
L.Donnell, NYG
A.Gates, SD
In 12-team
leagues, one of these guys will be a Week 1 starter, which is frightening. For
those of you that are bold though, there is tons of profit potential here.
Dwayne Allen racked up 8 touchdowns on only 29 receptions, and with all the
weapons at Andrew Luck’s disposal Allen could find himself with plenty of open
field to work with. Jordan Reed is a gifted receiver who just needs to stay
healthy. Vernon Davis is old, but if Colin Kaepernick straightens his issues
out, Davis stands to benefit the most. Antonio Gates shouldn’t be ignored
either, as he’ll only miss four games due to suspension. If Lardarius Green
doesn’t break out in September, Gates will deliver top-5 production the rest of
the way.
Tier 5 = Bye Week Subs
H.Miller,
PIT
M.Rivera,
OAK
T.Eifert,
CIN
J.Cook,
STL
K.Rudolph,
MIN
C.Clay,
BUF
A.Seferian-Jenkins,
TB
C.Fleener,
IND
S.Chandler,
NE
J.Hill,
NO
J.Amaro,
NYJ
T.Wright,
TB
N.Paul,
WAS
When he
retires, we are going to name this group “The Heath Miller Memorial Tier”. You
shouldn’t target any of these guys in a fantasy draft, but keep them in mind
for bye week coverage. Mychal Rivera and Tyler Eifert have the best chance of
achieving weekly fantasy relevance.
When to Draft (or bid for) One
We
discussed Gronk a little but it bears repeating…he’s a reasonable draft pick
any point after the fifth pick. Especially if you’re in a standard scoring
league, his projected yardage and touchdown total is vastly superior to any of
his peers. If positional scarcity is your thing you won’t blink taking him over
the top-tier wide receivers.
Currently
going towards the end of the third round in Yahoo leagues, Jimmy Graham is one
tight end I will not draft. The rest of the tight end field is going in the
sixth round or later, and that’s a much more reasonable price tag. You can fill
all of your wide receiver and running back spots, and maybe even have QB filled
and still end up with a decent option at tight end.
2013 Record = 12-4, NFC South Champions, Lost NFC
Divisional Game 2014 Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Lions, Steelers, @
Ravens, Bears, @ Bengals, @ Packers, Seahawks, Saints, @ Eagles, Falcons, BYE,
@ Vikings, @ Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @ Falcons
Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = FB Mike Tolbert, DE Greg
Hardy, MLB Luke Kuechly, OLB Thomas Davis Solid Contributors = QB Cam Newton, WR Jerricho
Cotchery, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei,
DT Kawann Short Impact Rookies = DE Kony Ealy (2-60, Missouri)
Good News = Carolina has the strongest front seven in
the league.
Bad News =Who is Cam Newton going to
throw too again?
Outlook = No team took as many hits too it’s overall
talent level than Carolina during the off-season. They lost a solid left
tackle, their entire wide receiver core, and didn’t retain any member of their
starting secondary. Cam Newton is probably the only quarterback in the league
that could be successful with a receiving core this bad, but it’s a tall order.
Most of Carolina’s offensive hopes hinge on rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He has the
size, but is a raw talent who doesn’t project as a go-to receiver right out of
the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen is the most reliable receiver Newton has. If
you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receptions,
he’s a good one. Carolina’s receiver problems are compounded by a weakened
offensive line, which will hinder their running game.
Carolina’s
front seven is sensational that needs to play at peak level every week to cover
for a weak secondary. Greg Hardy’s status is up in the air after off the field
issues, but there’s enough depth for the Panthers to get by without him. Luke
Kuechly was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and will need to
replicate that for Carolina to have any chance to return to the playoffs. Roman
Harper is washed up, and hopefully for the Panthers sake will not have to make
too many plays in deep coverage. Prediction = We love Cam Newton, but there’s too many
obstacles here for him to overcome. Only when the Panthers are out of salary
cap Hell will they return to playoff contention. 6-10
High Quality Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones Solid Contributors = WR Roddy White, RG Jon Asamoah,
DT Paul Soliai, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Desmond Trufant Impact Rookies = RT Jake Matthews (1-6, Texas
A&M), DE Ra’Shede Hageman (2-37, Minnesota)
Good News = Matt Ryan is coming off his most
inspiring campaign playing behind a battered offensive line in 2013.
Bad News = The offensive line is still ill equipped
to deal with the defenses in the AFC South.
Outlook = After averaging 12 wins a year
between 2010 and 2012, Atlanta posted a third of that total in 2013. Injuries
to star wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White contributed to their issues, but
the real issue was losing the war in the trenches. Atlanta was thirty-first
against the run, and Matt Ryan was assaulted by opposing defenses. The Falcons
bolstered the right side of the line by drafting Jake Matthews and signing Jon
Asamoah, but Sam Baker is probably the worst starting left tackle in the
league. He was just carted of the field tonight, and while we don’t root for
injuries, long term it wouldn’t be bad for the Falcons to try someone else on Matt
Ryan’s blindside. An awful runningback core further hinders Ryan. Stevan
Jackson is washed up, and Jacquizz Rodgers only managed 3.5 yards per carry.
Atlanta
didn’t make any major moves to upgrade a defense that was porous against the
run, and not much better against the pass. The Falcons have been in desperate
need of an elite pass rusher since John Abraham’s best years. Their secondary
would look a lot better if the front seven could get to the quarterback, as
they were asked to hold up for long periods of times in coverage. Prediction = Better targets for Ryan will add a few
wins, but an unforeseen improvement on the defensive side of the ball will be
needed to get Atlanta back into playoff contention. 7-9
Blue Chippers = DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Lavonte David
High Quality Players = WR Vincent Jackson Solid Contributors = HB Doug Martin, LT Anthony
Collins, RT Demar Dotson, DE Michael Johnson, CB Alterraun Verner Impact Rookies = WR Mike Evans (1-7, Texas A&M),
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-38, Washington
Good News = Lovie Smith is restoring many of the core
principles that were put in place when Tony Dungy was in Tampa.
Bad News = Journeyman Josh McCown doesn’t inspire
confidence for a surprising playoff run.
Outlook = Offensive line issues and
inconsistent quarterback play were the undoing of the 2013 Buccaneers, and
we’re still projecting those areas to be trouble spots this year. Even after
Mike Glennon showed some promise behind a shoddy offensive line, Tampa made the
curious choice of bringing in Josh McCown. McCown put up massive numbers in
relief of an injured Jay Cutler for Chicago, and he does have a similar set of
receivers to work with that he had last year with the Bears. We expect him to
have a short leash if Tampa Bay starts off slow. Doug Martin was also hampered
by the offensive line last season, and then was lost for the year in late
October. Mike Evans profiles as a red zone monster, and the perfect compliment
to Vincent Jackson.
Even
without Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers should boast one of the top defenses in
THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Lovie Smith is bringing the famed “Tampa 2”
defense back home, and the Bucs have the talent to execute it. Pro Bowler
Alterraun Verner was brought in from Tennessee to replace Revis. Safeties Mark Barron
and Dashon Goldson under whelmed last year, but have the potential to form an
elite safety duo. Gerald McCoy is a monster in the middle of the defensive line
who dominates against the run and the pass. Michael Johnson was brought in to
ease some pressure off McCoy. Lavonte David at times looks like a Derrick
Brooks clone, and should thrive in Smith’s system. Prediction = They will be competitive, and at times a
total pain in the ass to play, but inconsistent offensive line play will mire
the Buccaneers in mediocrity. 8-8
1. New Orleans Saints
2013 Record = 11-5, Second in NFC South, Lost NFC
Divisional Game 2014 Schedule =@ Falcons, @ Browns,Vikings, @ Cowboys, Buccaneers, BYE, @ Lions,
Packers, @ Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, Panthers, @ Bears,
Falcons, @ Buccaneers
Blue Chippers = QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy
Graham, FS Jairus Byrd
High Quality Players =HB Pierre Thomas,
WR Marques Colston, RT Zach Strief, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Keenan Lewis Solid Contributors =LG Jahri Evans, RG
Ben Grubbs, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Junior Galette, CB Champ
Bailey, SS Kenny Vaccaro Impact Rookies =WR Brandin Cooks (1-20,
Oregon State), CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2-58, Nebraska)
Good News = Carolina is the only team New Orleans
will face in a road game that finished last season above .500.
Bad News = This is the most unproven receiving core
Drew Brees has ever had with the Saints.
Outlook = A historic defensive turnaround
spearheaded New Orleans’ postseason return, and is still the reason the Saints
have the best chance of unseating the Seahawks and 49ers for a Super Bowl
berth. A perfect storm of young talent clicking in Rob Ryan’s system and the
arrival of Keenan Lewis led to the Saints finishing fourth in total defense.
Lewis was the key player, as after solid years with Pittsburgh he suddenly
morphed into a shutdown corner. Jairus Byrd was arguably the most important
free agent acquisition by any team during the off-season, and he will fit
perfectly with second year safety Kenny Vaccaro. Cameron Jordan and Junior
Galette thrived in Ryan’s attacking defense, and should at least replicate
their sack totals from a year ago.
For
the first time in many years, there are actually more questions about the
Saints offense. The offensive line was shaky at times during the early part of
the season, but came around once Terron Armstead was installed at left tackle.
A full off-season prepping for the position should raise his play another
level. Chain moving machine Lance Moore is gone, as well as Darren Sproles, who
has been the elite receiving back of the past decade. Pierre Thomas actually
posted more receptions than Sproles did last year, so they should fill in for
him just fine. Rookie Brandin Cooks is also being counted on to fill some of
the Sproles void on bubble screens. Along with Cooks, Kenny Stills also needs
to make a consistent impact. He only caught 32 passes last year, but averaged
an eye popping 20 yards per catch. The uncertainty at receiver is not as
worrisome with the presence of Jimmy Graham, who is the elite receiving tight
end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Fortunately for New Orleans his contract
situation was resolved before training camp. Prediction = With an extremely favorable schedule,
New Orleans has a great chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. Their home
date with the 49ers in Week 10 could end up determining who has home field
throughout the playoffs. 12-4
Our final
fantasy football position preview is here with a look at tight ends.
Tier 1 = Don’t Call Me a Tight End
J.Graham,
NO
Tight end
is deep in terms of dudes who are capable of delivering top-10 production, but
Jimmy Graham is the only surefire stud. Sort of like owning Mike Piazza in a
fantasy baseball league in the 1990s, Graham’s production is vastly superior to
everyone else at his position. His yardage total was almost 300 more than any
other tight end, and he led THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE in touchdown
receptions. In fantasy, those numbers led to him generating 85 points more than
any other tight end.
With all
that said, how high could Graham reasonably go in fantasy leagues? I wouldn’t
take him over any runningback from my top two tiers, but as early as six he
would be in the discussion. Graham is the highest rated non-runningback on my
draft board, not Calvin Johnson.
Tier 2 = The Best Normal Guys
J.Thomas, DEN
V.Davis, SF
J.Cameron, CLE
With Graham
off the board, these are the next best things. Julius Thomas came out of
nowhere to be a dynamic red zone target for Peyton Manning, and with Eric
Decker leaving for New York, could see even more passes headed his way. Vernon
was a boom or bust player in 2013, with 25% of his catches resulting in
touchdowns. He stands to benefit with a healthy Michael Crabtree leading a
revamped wide receiver core for the 49ers. Jordan Cameron has the highest
ceiling in this group, but the loss of Josh Gordon makes him the key player
defenses will key on. We’re not sure Cleveland’s quarterbacks are equipped to
handle that.
Tier 3 = Best Per-Game Production…Emphasis On “Per-Game”
If healthy, there isn’t a safer bet for 15 touchdown
receptions in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than Rob Gronkowski. The problem is
his bones are made of Swiss cheese. If you nail your first four picks, and one
of them isn’t Jimmy Graham, I fully endorse drafting Gronk. Even if he doesn’t
make his debut until Week 6, he can still win your fantasy league for you. If
he isn’t healthy for the fantasy playoffs, there’s always next year.
Go figure, that all
still applies. I’d probably bump the round I’m willing to gamble on him to the
sixth though.
Tier 4 = Steady Producers
J.Witten, DAL
G.Olsen, CAR
J.Reed, WAS
M.Bennett, CHI
D.Pitta, BAL
These guys
won’t win many weeks for you, but they aren’t going to lose many either.
Jordan Reed is the biggest reach in this group, but before getting hurt last
year he was delivering Tier-2 production after getting inserted into the
starting lineup.
Tier 5 = If You Draft Gronk, Draft One of These Guys Too
Z.Ertz, PHI
L.Green, SD
C.Clary, MIA
T.Eifert, CIN
H.Miller, PIT
C.Fleener, IND
E.Ebron, DET
K.Rudolph, MIN
A.Gates, SD
This group
contains the widest range of floors and ceilings at the tight end position.
Ideally, I’d like to see a few of these guys go undrafted and then pick one up
if they have a big first week.
Tier 6 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Subs
D.Walker, TEN
D.Allen, IND
J.Finley, GB
T.Wright, TB
M.Lewis, JAC
O.Daniels, BAL
Even if
you’re bonkers and play in a 16-team league, you wouldn’t want any of these
guys starting. Maybe you’ll get lucky and they’ll score a touchdown when your
starter has the week off.
Conclusion = Tight end is the simplest position in fantasy
this year. If I find myself in the back half of the first round and I have the
chance to draft Jimmy Graham, I’m pulling the trigger. Otherwise, I’m drafting
the best available player in the sixth or seventh.
Our fourth division preview brings us to the NFC South, which is full of team's who will have inflated win totals thanks to playing the putrid AFC East.
Franchise Players = QB Cam Newton, MLB Luke Kuechly
Supporting Cast = RB Johnathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo
Williams, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen, LT Jordan Gross, C Ryan Kalil, DE Greg
Hardy, DE Charles Johnson, OLB Jon Beason Notable Rookies = DT Star Lotulelei (Utah, 1-14), DT
Kawann Short (Purdue, 2-44), RB Kenjon Barner (Oregon, 6-182)
Offensive Outlook = Carolina brings back
virtually the same offense it has had for the past two seasons. Cam Newton
started out slow last season, but caught fire in the second half to post
numbers similar to his rookie season. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
are arguably the most talented running back duo in the league, but often were
forgotten assets. Getting these guys a combined 30 carries a game would go a
long way in balancing the offense. Steve Smith is still the only credible wide
receiver Carolina has to offer (where oh where is Muhsin Muhammad?), but at
least the Panthers have a solid tight end. Greg Olsen had the most productive
year a tight end has ever had for the Panthers (somehow Wesley Walls never
cracked 1,000 yards back in the day), and is a steady receiver for Newton to
target on third down. Carolina’s offensive line was ravaged by injury last
season, with the loss of Ryan Kalil hurting the most. Defensive Outlook = Carolina made great strides
defensively last season, and the catalyst was Luke Kuechly. Kuechly looks like
a player that can be a top-5 middle linebacker for the better part of the next
decade. Jon Beason is capable of playing at a Pro Bowl level, but has only
suited up for five games in the last 32 games. Even 10 games out of him will be
a lift for the defense. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy were a
menace for opposing tackles, Carolina used their first two draft picks on
defensive tackles, with first round pick Star Lotulelei having the chance to be
the game changing defensive tackle the Panthers have never had. The secondary
is a major concern, as it appears that it’s an open competition to see who
starts at corner and both safety spots.
Ceiling = 10-6– They did win five of their
last six last season, so double digit wins isn’t impossible.
Floor = 2-14 – Poor offensive line play combined with
awful secondary play could be the perfect storm for an awful season. Prediction = 7-9 It’s
boring to predict the same win total as last year, but there wasn’t enough
roster improvement to suggest a serious increase in victories will occur.
Carolina won’t take off until they finally can Head Coach Ron Rivera.
Franchise Players = QB Drew Brees, WR Marques
Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, RG Jahri Evans
Supporting Cast = RB Mark Ingram, RB Darren Sproles,
WR Lance Moore, LG Ben Grubbs, C
Brian de la Puente, DE Cameron Jordan, MLB
Curtis Lofton, P Thomas Morstead Notable Rookies = FS Kenny Vaccaro (Texas, 1-15), DT
Johnathan Jenkins (Georgia, 3-82)
Offensive Outlook = The only reason the
Saints won seven games last year was because of the raw talent they have on
offense. Drew Brees wasn’t as accurate as he was in previous years, but that
had more to do with the Saints playing from behind more often than usual. He’s
still a top-5 quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. It’s likely that
this is the last year Mark Ingram gets a chance to demonstrate he can be a
feature back. Pierre Thomas is still lurking, but at least Chris Ivory has been
shipped to New York. Darren Sproles will handle the receiving chores out of the
backfield, and will have a chance at catching 100 passes this year. Jimmy
Graham is the #1 receiving threat, and is the most dynamic tight end in the
NFC. Marques Colston isn’t explosive, but there aren’t many other wide receivers
more reliable on third down. Lance Moore generated 1,000+ yards for the first
time in his career thanks to an unusual spike in his average yards per catch.
New Orleans will need a deep threat to emerge. Nick Toon, Joe Morgan (not the
senile Hall of Fame second baseman), or rookie Kenny Stills are the candidates
to fill that role.
Defensive Outlook = Only three times did the Saints allow less than 20
points last season. Seven times, 30+ points were dropped on them. Rob Ryan has
been hired, and is switching the Saints from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense.
Cameron Jordan might be the player most impacted by this switch, as he’ll have
a hard time getting to the quarterback working as a 3-4 defensive end. The
linebacking core is the strength of the defense, with Victor Butler a potential
impact player as a pass rushing outside linebacker but they will have to do without Victor Butler, who's knee exploded during training camp. New Orleans’ secondary was
miserable, and things don’t look that much better this year. Kenny Vaccaro does
have a chance to make an impact as a versatile, do-it-all safety.
Ceiling = 11-5 – Is a head coach worth four wins?
We’ll find out this year when Sean Payton returns. Floor = 5-11 – The defense still sucks. A
lot. Prediction = 8-8 If
Sean Payton was a returning shutdown cornerback, I might pencil New Orleans in
for a division title. The defense isn’t good enough for New Orleans to make a
serious Super Bowl run.
Supporting Cast = QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams,
LT Donald Penn, LG Carl Nicks, RG Davin Joseph, MLB Mason Foster, OLB Lavonte
David, FS Dashon Goldson, SS Mark Barron Notable Rookies = CB Johnthan Banks (Mississippi St.,
2-43), QB Mike Glennon (N.C. State, 3-73)
Offensive Outlook = Tampa Bay was in the thick of the
NFC playoff race before Josh Freeman drove the Buccaneers off a cliff. The Bucs
lost five of their last six games (their only win in that stretch was in the
season finale against the Falcons, who had already clinched home-field
advantage throughout the playoffs), and Freeman’s inaccuracy had a lot to do
with it. He put up a 6-10 touchdown to interception ratio in the final six
games (as opposed to 21-7 in the first ten), and only completed 54.8% of his
passes for the season. A return to his 2010 form is vital if Tampa Bay wants to
return to the playoffs. Doug Martin demonstrated in his rookie year that he is
more than able to shoulder a full-time workload. Tampa’s inability to
consistently throw the football was the only reason for Martin’s dive in late
season productivity. Vincent Jackson was the rare free agent signing that paid
immediate dividends, as set career highs for receptions and receiving yards.
His presence on the field also opened up space for Mike Williams to operate.
The greatest unknown about the Buccaneers is how they will perform if their
starting guards stay healthy. Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph are both capable of
being franchise players, but must prove they can return to form after having
their 2012 campaigns ruined by injury.
Defensive Outlook = The Buccaneers had the worst pass
defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last season, and they were aggressive
in fixing that weakness. It was a gamble to ship out draft picks for Darrelle
Revis, but if he comes back at a level close to his pre-injury form, it will be
worth it. He’s the rare corner that even in today’s pass-happy NFL can still
take away an opposing team’s top receiver. Ex-49er Dashon Goldson was also
brought in to solidify the safety core. A second year leap in performance from
Mark Barron will give Tampa Bay a fully revamped secondary. Tampa did lead the
NFL in run defense, but some of that success is directly related to how bad the
pass coverage was. Gerald McCoy was healthy for a full season for the first
time, and parlayed that into a Pro Bowl berth. The Buccaneers did lose fellow
defensive tackle Roy Miller, so someone will have to step up so McCoy doesn’t
end up facing constant double teams. Although not as publicly praised, Lavonte
David’s rookie year wasn’t far off of Doug Martin’s in terms of overall
production. He paired nicely with Mason Foster last season to stuff the running
game.
Ceiling = 13-3 – I already said it earlier, but it
bears repeating. If Josh Freeman finds consistency, this team can challenge the
Falcons.
Floor = 3-13 – A dismal season could occur if Freeman
is terrible and Darrelle Revis isn’t the shutdown corner the Buccaneers paid
for. Prediction = 9-7 I’m
not sold on Freeman, but there’s enough talent here for the team to finish
above .500.
1. Atlanta Falcons
2012 Record = 13-3, first in NFC South, lost NFC
Championship Game
Franchise Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, WR
Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez
Supporting Cast = RB Steven Jackson, LT Sam Baker, DE
Osi Umenyiora, MLB Akeem Dent, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Asante Samuel, FS
Thomas DeCoud, SS William Moore, K Matt Bryant Notable Rookies = CB Desmond Trufant (Washington,
1-22), CB Robert Alford (Southeastern Louisiana, 2-60)
Offensive Outlook = Thanks to Atlanta convincing Tony
Gonzalez to return for one more season, Matt Ryan will have all three of his
elite receivers back in 2013. Julio Jones and Roddy White are the best wide
receiver duo in the league (think of them as a modern day Randy Moss and Cris
Carter). Jones is the more athletic of the two, but White tends to be targeted
the most when the Falcons need to move the chains. Gonzalez is still a
productive player in his seventeenth season who excels in the red zone. Steven
Jackson was signed to replace Michael Turner, and should be an upgrade for the
Falcons at runningback. Jackson is a significantly better receiver than Turner,
and should be able to cash in some short yardage touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers
is a solid change of pace back who will also see consistent touches. The
offensive line is the biggest question mark for the Falcons. Two of their
starters from a year ago are gone, and they do not have a dominant offensive
lineman at any position. Sam Baker is the steadiest, but isn’t an elite run
blocker.
Defensive Outlook = Atlanta was a perfect example of
how a team should play a “bend-don’t-break” defense. They didn’t stop the run
or sack the quarterback enough, but they had outstanding secondary play.
Safeties Thomas DeCoud and William Moore emerged as elite playmakers, and the
Falcons still have elite ball hawk Asante Samuel. Rookie Desmond Trufant will
likely start opposite of Samuel, which is a risk when you’re talking about a
team with Super Bowl aspirations. 66-year old Osi Umenyiora has been brought in
to replace John Abraham, which is asking a lot. It’s hard to see where
quarterback pressure is going to come from for the Falcons.
Ceiling = 13-3– A pass rush will have to come
out of nowhere for Atlanta to match last season’s win total.
Floor = 9-7 – Short of Matt Ryan’s knee exploding,
it’s hard to see how Atlanta can lose eight games (they can thank playing the
pathetic AFC East for that). Prediction = 11-5 Of
the NFC South teams, Atlanta is the most complete, but come playoff time their
mediocre offensive line and defense will rear its ugly head when they face the
other elite teams in the NFC.
Last year was hyped as the deepest
crop of useful fantasy tight ends in history. This year, not so much. Aaron
Hernandez…well, I don’t need to tell you what happened to him (just know he was
ranked second on this list before his legal troubles). Rob Gronkowski…I don’t
have to talk about him either. Two thirds of the top tight end tier has been
reduced to rubble (along with the dominance of the New England Patriots
offense, but we will save that conversation for another day). We don’t need to
publish a value adjusted ranking at the end here, as my personal values of
players will not be impacted by the draft pick I need to spend on them.
Tier 1 – The Last Man Standing
1
J.Graham,
Saints
This is a rule that if you have
designs on winning your fantasy league, you have to live by…if you have the
chance to draft Jimmy Graham in the third round, you do it. No questions asked.
His average draft spot is 18.5, which puts him towards the end of the second in
ten team leagues. If I still have a shot at a Tier 3 runningback with my third
round pick, I’d make the plunge in the second.
For those
wondering why Graham is such a valuable commodity, you must consider two
things. One, he’s going to produce like Tier 2 or 3 wide receiver. Secondly,
there isn’t a safer bet at tight end to produce at that level than Graham.
Getting the scoring output he generates on a week-to-week basis at a week
position is a tremendous advantage.
Tier 2 – The Lottery Ticket
2
R.Gronkowski, Patriots
If healthy, there isn’t a safer bet
for 15 touchdown receptions in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than Rob
Gronkowski. The problem is his bones are made of Swiss cheese. If you nail your
first four picks, and one of them isn’t Jimmy Graham, I fully endorse drafting
Gronk. Even if he doesn’t make his debut until Week 6, he can still win your
fantasy league for you. If he isn’t healthy for the fantasy playoffs, there’s
always next year.
Tier 3 – Old Reliables
3
J.Witten, Cowboys
4
T.Gonzalez, Falcons
These are you safe sixth round
picks if you miss out on the Rob Gronkowski sweepstakes. Witten might be worth
a fifth round pick if you’re playing in a PPR league.
Tier 4 – Solid Contributors
5
V.Davis, 49ers
6
D.Pitta, Ravens
7
G.Olsen, Panthers
8
A.Gates, Chargers
There’s a decent chance that one of
these guys will end up as the second highest scoring tight end in fantasy this
season, but good luck picking which one will do it. Davis presents the best
opportunity for a monster year, as it looks like he’ll line up at wide receiver
while Michael Crabtree is on the shelf.
Tier 5 – Inconsistent Commodities
9
O.Daniels, Texans
10
B.Myers, Giants
11
J.Finley, Packers
12
J.Cook, Rams
13
K.Rudolph, Vikings
14
M.Bennett, Bears
Just as likely to score you 15
points as they are to score 1, this group of tight ends will drive you
absolutely bonkers if you own one of them.
Tier 6 – Sleepers and Bye Week Subs
15
J.Gresham, Bengals
16
B.Pettigrew, Lions
17
F.Davis, Redskins
18
R.Housler, Cardinals
19
D.Allen, Colts
20
J.Cameron, Browns
21
D.Keller, Dolphins
22
Z.Miller, Seahawks
23
H.Miller, Steelers
24
D.Walker, Titans
25
B.Celek, Eagles
None of these guys should be drafted unless you are in
a twelve-team league, and even then I don’t think I’d take the plunge. All of
these guys should be considered as bye week pickups, but a couple warrant
keeping tabs on early in the season. Fred Davis is always productive when he’s
healthy, but the problem is he’s never healthy. Rob Housler has generated
preseason buzz, and of all the Cardinals not named Larry Fitzgerald, should
benefit the most from having an adequate NFL quarterback.
