2014 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

            The tier system worked so well for my fantasy teams last year that we are breaking it out again for our 2014 Fantasy Football preview. As the off-season progresses these rankings will be updated on this page as necessary (quarterback should be the least volatile position, barring a catastrophic injury). We start at quarterback.

 

Tier 1 – The Sure Things

A.Rodgers, GB

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Not a whole lot to say about these guys, other than barring injury, they are the surest bets on the board. We’ll rank Rodgers first because he’s the youngest, and provides some decent rushing stats that you won’t get out of Brees and Manning. I won’t get any of these quarterbacks in my re-draft leagues, but certainly wouldn’t mind acquiring one in an auction. If you do pay the price, don’t bother drafting a back up.

Tier 2 – The Next Best Things

C.Newton, CAR

A.Luck, IND

M.Ryan, ATL

M.Stafford, DET

            Cam Newton was in Tier-1 last season, but without Steve Smith his receiving pool is as shallow as it has ever been. That hasn’t bothered Newton before, but the uncertainty drops him from the third round a year ago to the fourth or fifth this year. This is probably the last year that Andrew Luck is not ranked in the top group for the next decade, while Stafford and Ryan are the best bets for piling up high volume passing totals. I’ll sign off on not having a back up on your initial roster if you end up with a player from this group, as that gives you the best combination of loading up on elite skill players early, and rolling the dice on late-round lottery tickets late.

 

Tier 3 – High Ceilings, Low Floors

C.Kaepernick, SF

P.Rivers, SD

N.Foles, PHI

T.Romo, DAL

R.Wilson, SEA

R.Griffin III, WAS

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

J.Cutler, CHI

T.Brady, NE

            Last year, our quarterbacks ranked seven through sixteen were split into three tiers, but this year they are all lumped in together. You could make a compelling case that any of these QBs could finish the year as a top-5 fantasy quarterback, and then immediately follow that with a strong argument that they could finish outside the top-20. Kaepernick is our favorite of this group, as he will have a vastly improved receiving core to work with than he did for the majority of last year. Robert Griffin III probably deserves his own tier as the biggest boom or bust quarterback of the year. In a perfect world, you’ll be able to draft two of these guys on your roster and work a platoon.

Tier 4 – Qualified Bye Week Subs

A.Dalton, CIN

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

A.Smith, KC

C.Palmer, ARI

J.McCown, TB

J.Flacco, BAL

            None of these guys should be drafted as your franchise fantasy quarterback (unless you enjoy losing), but these will be your best options to cover your starters bye if you choose to utilize the waiver wire to cover your starting QBs off week. Tannehill is still the most intriguing long-term value in this group, but he’s burning daylight in terms of delivering on his potential. 

Tier 5 – Unqualified Bye Week Subs

S.Bradford, STL

J.Manziel, CLE

E.Manuel, BUF

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Vick, NYJ

M.Schaub, OAK

J.Locker, TEN

G.Smith, NYJ

R.Fitzpatrick, HOU

            One could also rename this group “Dynasty League Prospects and Washed Up Dudes. At gunpoint, Bridgewater is my pick to deliver the most fantasy value this season, but you shouldn’t waste a draft pick on any of these guys unless you are playing in 16-team league where you have to play two quarterbacks every week.

Conclusion = Quarterback is still the deepest position in fantasy (unless you’re playing in a 2-QB league, but that puts you in the minority), so even if I was playing in a 16 team league, I plan on being one of the last people to draft a quarterback. An early round pick is just too valuable to waste on a quarterback when you factor in the diminishing value of every other position as you get deeper into a draft. If I lockdown my two starting runningbacks, taking Aaron Rodgers early in the third is the only way I end up with a Tier-1 QB on my team. The same theory applies here for auctions, as I plan on spending my money elsewhere and grabbing a quarterback after the initial rush.

Top-16 Value Based Ranks – Based on the current average draft position based on Yahoo drafts, these is my wish lists for quarterbacks I plan on targeting for my teams.

C.Kaepernick, SF, 89.4

C.Newton, CAR, 51.9

M.Ryan, ATL, 57.8

A.Rodgers, GB, 21.1

A.Luck, IND, 48.6

M.Stafford, DET, 46.2

P.Rivers, SD 93.5

R.Wilson, SEA, 89.0

T.Romo, DAL, 89.0

B.Roethlisberger, PIT, 118.9

J.Cutler, CHI, 106.8

D.Brees, NO, 18.3

N.Foles, PHI, 69.2

R.Griffin III, WAS, 60.7

P.Manning, DEN, 11.4

T.Brady, NE, 58.0