2015 Week 3 NFL Picks

RAMS (+1) over Steelers

            This game will be decided by three points or less. I guess we’ll take the point.

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Chargers

            Adrian Peterson looked pretty good last week. We expect him to go Supernova against San Diego.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS

            I can’t wrap my head around the fact that a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallett is favored to win by a touchdown.

JETS (-2) over Eagles

            The Jets are going to blitz the living hell out of Sam Bradford.

PANTHERS (-8) over Saints

            New Orleans is a car fire. Carolina might only score ten points and still cover the spread.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Jaguars

            I let myself down by not backing the Jaguars for one more game last week (they should’ve covered in Week 1 if not for an awful pick-6 by Blake Bortles). There’s back-door cover potential here, but we’re still picking the Patriots.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals

            It’s disheartening for No Credentials that our pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year is playing a must-win game in Week 3.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Raiders

            Last week’s Steelers-49ers game was further proof of the peril west coast teams face when they play 1 p.m. east coast games. That’s why this line is at least a point higher than you think it should be, and why the Browns will still cover.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS

            We’re guessing an AFC South opponent is just what the Colts need to right the ship.

COWBOYS (+1.5) over Falcons

            Atlanta’s lack of a pass rush combined with the Cowboys’ elite offensive line means Brandon Weeden should have ample time to “beautifully” throw the football (Jerry Jones’ words, not mine).

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS

            We may have under estimated Arizona (can someone ask Carson Palmer to pee in a cup already?), but Niners-Cardinals games historically have been close affairs.

SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears

            The line would have to be over three touchdowns for me to even consider taking Chicago.

DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Bills

            Buffalo shouldn’t be favored by half a point over the Dolphins on a neutral field. I’ll gladly accept the half-point discount here. 

Broncos (-3.5) over LIONS

            We have no idea what to make of Peyton Manning, but that shouldn’t matter Sunday night against a Lions team that looks ready to implode.

PACKERS (-7) over Chiefs

            It’s been ten days, and I feel like that has allowed the general public to forget how demoralizing Kansas City’s loss at home to Denver was. Now tasked with playing at Lambeau Field, we don’t like their chances Monday night.

 

Week 2 = 8-8

Thursday = 1-0 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Season = 17-15-1

Spread Picks By Team

            In our new weekly installment, I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Saints to cover against the Buccaneers. They didn’t, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Cowboys to cover on the road at Philly. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Redskins = 3-0

Browns = 2-0

Eagles = 2-0

Packers = 2-0

Vikings = 2-0

Lions = 2-0

Falcons = 2-0

Seahawks = 2-0

Rams = 2-0

49ers = 2-0

Patriots = 1-0-1

Steelers = 1-0-1

Giants = 2-1

Bills = 1-1

Titans = 1-1

Cowboys = 1-1

Dolphins = 1-1

Jets = 1-1

Texans = 1-1

Chiefs = 1-1

Chargers = 1-1

Bears = 1-1

Ravens = 0-2

Bengals = 0-2

Colts = 0-2

Jaguars = 0-2

Raiders = 0-2

Saints = 0-2

Buccaneers = 0-2

Panthers = 0-2

Cardinals = 0-2

Broncos = 0-2

Pre-Chase Rankings

Field Filler

16. Paul Menard

            For proof that The Chase field is too large, look no further than Menard and his measly four top-10s this season.

15. Jamie McMurray

            Incredibly, this is the first time McMurray has ever made The Chase. He won’t stay in title contention very long.

14. Clint Bowyer

            Bowyer propelling his soon to be non-existent race team into the playoffs is a feat on it’s own.

13. Ryan Newman

            We love Newman, but the odds of him making another run like he did last year are remote.

I Don’t Think He Cares Anymore

12. Jeff Gordon

            Despite being in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year, Gordon has been smiling all over the place during his retirement tour. One of these days we’ll figure out at one point in the 2000s he stopped trying to be great.

They Have Speed, but Need to Get Hot

11. Carl Edwards

            Edwards has two wins this year, but one was by virtue of fuel mileage, and the other was on a track layout not like anything we’ll see in the final ten races. Furthermore, of all the winners this season, Edwards has the fewest top-5s and fewest top-10s.

10. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex has cooled off considerably over the summer months, but with Dover and Loudon in the first round of The Chase, that could be a spring board for him returning to his early season form.

9. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has a decent track record of success at most of the tracks in the playoffs, and a win at Martinsville earlier in the year. If he makes it to the field of eight, Martinsville will give Hamlin his best chance of racing for the title at Homestead for the second year in a row.

You Can’t Count Them Out

8. Kurt Busch

            For a short time after his return from suspension, Busch was the only driver that could match Kevin Harvick’s consistency. That ability has waned over the summer, but Busch knows how to get it done in the playoffs and still has plenty of speed.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Quietly, Junior has had the most consistent season of any of the Hendrick drivers in 2015. His dominance at the plate tracks this season bode well for him when the Sprint Cup returns to Talladega in October. His lack of Chase success is the only reason we don’t have him ranked in the top-5.

6. Brad Keselowski

            He’s third in top-10s, but Keselowski has just felt a little bit off all season. He’s let a couple of victories slip away, and hasn’t been able to match the level of performance on a week-to-week basis by his own teammate. Keselowski has won though at least one of the tracks in every round of The Chase, and is certainly capable of going on a hot streak.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson is tied for the most wins on the circuit, but he really hasn’t done much of anything since the spring. Summer swoons aren’t uncommon for Johnson, but Hendrick has fallen behind a few organizations in terms of overall speed for the first time in years. It’ll be a tall order for Johnson to earn his record tying seventh Cup title.

Our Final Four

4. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth put an exclamation point on the regular season with a dominating run at Richmond. He has more momentum than anyone else in the garage.

3. Kyle Busch

            Kyle ripping off three straight wins in July to solidify his place in the playoffs was the most memorable run of the entire season. It will be interesting to see if he can overcome the demons of past postseason runs.

2. Joey Logano

            The Daytona 500 is second in both top-5s and top-10s to Kevin Harvick, and quietly is the most likely driver to knock Harvick off the throne.

1. Kevin Harvick

            Sure Harvick hasn’t won in a while, but his consistency has been remarkable. In 26 races, he’s posted 18 top-5s and 22 top-10s. We know he has Phoenix in the bag, so he is the most likely driver to be in the Final Four at Homestead.

2015 NFL Week 2 Picks

Texans (+3) over PANTHERS

            In what will amount to a reenactment of football in the 1930s, we’ll take the points.

SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers

            We don’t feel warm and fuzzy about backing the Saints as double-digit favorites, but it would be even scarier to back the Bucs under any circumstances after last week’s debacle.

STEELERS (-7) over 49ers

            At first glance, this line is too high, but you have to dig deeper to make peace with it. Pittsburgh will have had 10 days off and gets to play at home. San Francisco played in a game that started at 10:15 eastern time Monday night, and then has to travel cross-country to play at 1pm (10am Pacific, for those of you not paying attention) Sunday.

VIKINGS (-2) over Lions

            Minnesota will reestablish themselves as wildcard contenders in their home opener.

Patriots (-1) over BILLS

            Buffalo will dominate for three quarters before finding a way to blow it and lose by 3.

BEARS (+2) over Cardinals

            We predicted the Cardinals would go 6-10. No Credentials will bank on that prediction for one more week and take the points.

BROWNS (+2) over Titans

            Two words…Johnny Fucking Football. Also, people are overreacting after Tennessee’s win over Tampa Bay.

Chargers (+3.5) over BENGALS

            I don’t know if San Diego wins, but the extra half point on this line is disrespectful to Philip Rivers.

REDSKINS (+3.5) over Rams

            St. Louis has a history of playing down to it’s competition, and Washington wasn’t horrendous in Week 1.

Falcons (+2) over GIANTS

            So a week after an epic choke job (even Tony Romo said, “Man the Giants fucked up the end of that game”), New York is favored against a decent Falcons squad?

Ravens (-7) over RAIDERS

            In McGloin we do not trust.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

            Miami took care of business on the road last week against an inferior opponent, and we think they do it again in Jacksonville.

Cowboys (+5.5) over EAGLES

            If Romo pulls this one out, we can start up some MVP chatter.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Seahawks

            On one hand, this line should be PACKERS (-3). On the other, I think Green Bay wins. So…ya.

COLTS (-7) over Jets

            Indy got kicked in the teeth last week, but they will bounce back at home.

Week 1 = 8-7-1

Thursday = 0-1 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Spread Picks By Team

            In a new weekly installment, each week I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Colts to cover in Buffalo. They got annihilated, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Seahawks to lose at St. Louis. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Dolphins = 1-0

Jets = 1-0

Browns = 1-0

Texans = 1-0

Chargers = 1-0

Eagles = 1-0

Redskins = 1-0

Packers = 1-0

Vikings = 1-0

Lions = 1-0

Bears = 1-0

Falcons = 1-0

Seahawks = 1-0

Rams = 1-0

49ers = 1-0

Chiefs = 1-1

Patriots = 0-0-1

Steelers = 0-0-1

Bills = 0-1

Ravens = 0-1

Bengals = 0-1

Colts = 0-1

Jaguars = 0-1

Titans = 0-1

Raiders = 0-1

Cowboys = 0-1

Giants = 0-1

Saints = 0-1

Buccaneers = 0-1

Panthers = 0-1

Cardinals = 0-1

Broncos = 0-2

2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

NFL Division and Playoff Picks

            You don’t even have to bother watching any NFL games this year, because No Credentials is here today to tell you how every team will do this season.

 

NFC EAST

Cowboys 12-4

Eagles 10-6

Giants 7-9

Washington 5-11

            The Eagles will look like world-destroyers some weeks, but ultimately Sam Bradford’s health will prevent them from winning the division. We love the Giants offense this year, but even when a nine fingered Jason Pierre-Paul returns, it won’t be enough to lift their putrid defense. Behind the best offensive line in football, the Cowboys will control the NFC East.

NFC North

Packers 13-3

Vikings 9-7

Bears 6-10

Lions 5-11

            Aaron Rodgers is our pick to win NFL MVP, as we’re going to really see how good he is without Jordy Nelson on the field. Minnesota has talent up and down the roster, and should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. Chicago is a car-fire, and we expect Jim Caldwell to be the parachute that pulls the Lions down into the abyss.

NFC South

Falcons 10-6

Saints 7-9

Buccaneers 7-9

Panthers 6-10

            All of these teams are still mediocre, but Atlanta did the most during the off-season to make us believe they can right the ship.

NFC West

Seahawks 12-4

Rams 9-7

49ers 6-10

Cardinals 4-12

            The NFC West has been the class of the divisions for the past four years, but their grip on that title is slipping. San Francisco had one of the worst off-seasons in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and Arizona screams regression. Those two squads growing weaker will lift the Rams over .500, but we have them narrowly missing the playoffs. Seattle has lost a ton of depth from its Super Bowl winning squad two years ago, but they are still the class of the field.

AFC East

Patriots 11-5

Dolphins 10-6

Bills 7-9

Jets 6-10

            For the first time in several years during the Brady era (we won’t count 2008), the Patriots should actually get pushed for the division title. We still expect them to win it, but Miami will be hot on their heels. Buffalo and New York won’t be walks in the park, but their lousy quarterback production (sorry Tyrod) will doom them.

AFC North

Ravens 12-4

Steelers 10-6

Bengals 6-10

Browns 4-12

            Baltimore has done a nice job reloading since the bulk of their Super Bowl winning roster left, and we forecast them rejoining the AFC elite. No Credentials doesn’t know how we found 10 wins for Pittsburgh, but their offense will be elite when Le’Veon Bell returns. This feels like the year that Andy Dalton implodes in regular season games, so at least he won’t get to choke in Round 1. Cleveland…well they are the Browns.

AFC South

Colts 12-4

Texans 9-7

Jaguars 5-11

Titans 4-12

            Indy still has a stranglehold on the South, as Houston did not properly address their quarterback situation (sorry Brian Hoyer). Jacksonville won’t be all that good, but at least they have hope for the future.

AFC West

Broncos 11-5

Chiefs 9-7

Chargers 6-10

Raiders 6-10

            2015 will probably go down as Peyton Manning’s last stand, and his noodle arm should be good enough to give Denver another division title. On paper Kansas City is the most dangerous threat, but Alex Smith’s limitations will keep them out of the playoff picture. San Diego is due for a drop in production, while Oakland will take another step towards consistent competitiveness.

Wildcard Round (home team in caps)

SEAHAWKS over Vikings, Eagles over FALCONS, Dolphins over BRONCOS, PATRIOTS over Steelers

Divisional Round

PACKERS over Eagles, COWBOYS over Seahawks, RAVENS over Miami, Patriots over COLTS

Conference Championship

PACKERS over Cowboys, RAVENS over Patriots

Super Bowl

Packers over Ravens