Week 4 NFL Picks

Week 4 Bye Weeks = Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 50.5
            I’ll go out on a limb and say that with the real refs back, teams with powerhouse offenses should return to their normal 2011 level of production. Tom Brady won’t have to worry about Wes Welker getting mugged 10 yards down the field. If Buffalo had a healthy C.J. Spiller, this could’ve been a game, but expect a very pissed off 1-2 Patriots team to lay the smack down.

Patriots (-4) over BILLS

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2)

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            Christian Ponder made me a believer last week. I don’t think they’ll win the NFC North or anything crazy like that, but covering against a banged up Lions team isn’t too much to ask.

Vikings (+4) over LIONS

 

Carolina Panthers (0-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            If Atlanta runs their offense for four quarters, this could be a 30-point beat-down.

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1)

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 41.5
            I don’t think the Jets will win, but this feels like a 13-10, 12-7, 17-14 sort of game. San Francisco isn’t a team equipped to take advantage of Darrelle Revis not being on the field.

JETS (+4.5) over 49ers

 

San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
            Norv Turner isn’t that far above an interim interim coach (which is what Kansas City beat last week), but the parachute that is Matt Cassell will hold down the Chiefs in this one.

Chargers (-1) over CHIEFS

 

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0)

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
            Jake Locker won’t have as much fun against Houston as he did last week against the Lions.

TEXANS (-12) over Titans

 

Seattle Seahawks (2-1*) @ St.Louis Rams (1-2)

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 39
            Karma is a bitch Seattle.

RAMS (+3) over Seahawks

 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

Sunday, 4:00pm, CBS, O/U 39
            It’s Hard for me to see Miami scoring much at all with no Reggie Bush on the field.

CARDINALS (-6) over Dolphins

Top-5 Pick
 

Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (1-2)

Sunday, 4:00pm, CBS, O/U 49
            Sure your grandmother can throw a tighter spiral than Peyton Manning, but that won’t matter against Oakland’s “week after pulling off a big upset” hangover.

BRONCOS (-7) over Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Sunday, 4:00pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            Blaine Gabbert has already pulled two rabbits out of his ass this season. I’m guessing he’s out of small furry mammals.

Bengals (-1.5) over JAGUARS

Top-5 Pick

New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2)

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 53
            The same paragraph I wrote for the Patriots applies to Green Bay here, with the added bonus of the Packers being extremely pissed off after getting screwed in Seattle.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Saints

 

Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47.5
            Robert Griffin III is amazing, but he’s a one-man gang. If Josh Freeman rebounds from the stinker he laid in Dallas, Tampa should win comfortably.

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Redskins

 

New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 47.5
            I’m predicting a Nick Foles appearance sometime in the middle of the third quarter. Either that or Vick is going to rack up 35 points for my fantasy team. There is no middle ground.

Giants (+2) over EAGLES

Top-5 Pick
 

Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Monday, 8:30pm, ESPN, O/U 41.5
            Can’t say I feel incredibly comfortable picking either side, but Chicago’s horrendous offensive line isn’t built to deal with DeMarcus Ware.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Bears

 

Last Week = 9-7 (should’ve been 10-6, thanks replacement refs…)

Thursday Picks = 0-4
Season Record = 22-24-2

Folks That Could Benefit From Briefly Being Replaced

            After watching a Baltimore crowd that managed to chant “BULLSHIT” for five straight minutes during the Sunday night game give a standing ovation to the regular officials just four days later, I started thinking (which is dangerous). What other people or groups could benefit from being replaced by unqualified people? Here’s the half-baked list.

 

Congress

            For my money, the best possible comparison to the NFL refs is the members of the Senate and House. Regardless of party affiliation, Congress is typically a hated entity. They’d get a little more respect if they were locked out and replaced by small-town selectmen for three weeks.

Van Halen Singer “Diamond” David Lee Roth

            The only example on this list of someone who actually was replaced permanently (I’m not counting the brief reunion tours that Diamond Dave has done with Van Halen in the past decade. He never again performed with the band in his prime after leaving in 1985). Van Halen went from pumping out classics (You Really Got Me, Unchained, Hot For Teacher, Panama) to playing watered down pop rock (Love Comes Walking In, Right Now). Van Halen would be remembered much more fondly if Roth could’ve stayed in the fold instead of Sammy Haggar.

Jay Leno

            Actually, on second thought, no one under the age of 48 would miss Jay Leno if NBC ever came to their senses and took him off the air for good.

Ryan Seacrest

            Seacrest leads Hollywood in the number of most thankless jobs. American Idol host. Radio show host. The heir to Dick Clark’s New Year’s Eve throne. Frequent red carpet interviewer. None of those gigs are jobs kids would dream about doing (unless being Simon Cowell’s whipping boy for almost a decade sounds like fun to someone). He gets no love, and very little fanfare, but if you take him away from any of those jobs, the performance will drop. I don’t think everyone has the “emcee” gene in them. Seacrest has it better than anyone else.

Christian Bale

 

 

            After the previous audio clip, most people thought Christian Bale was a raging lunatic. His performance as Batman over the years has been largely unpraised, and even mocked due to his in costume voice. If we could somehow have a machine that could show us what every movie Christian Bale has been in would be like if his role was played by another actor, I guaruantee it would be worse. If it wasn’t for the Oscar he won, he’d be the most underrated actor of the past decade.

Figure Skating/Gymnastic/Dancing With the Stars Judges

            I’m not even remotely a fan of any of these activities (save for Emmitt Smith’s championship winning run against Slater from “Saved By The Bell”), which makes it very hard for me to judge how good or bad a given performer did. Basically, as long as the person doesn’t fall down, I’m ready to give them a 10. 

Bobby Valentine

            Obviously, another joke. Just making sure you’re still paying attention.

Kid’s Television Programming

            Any parent will tell horror stories about some show they’ve had to watch 2,042,682 times. If I ever find ambition again, I’ll unveil my “Agents of Satan” power-poll for the most annoying kid’s shows on the air. Unfortunately, these shows can sometimes be the only thing that keep children from doing crazy shit like unscrew light bulbs, draw on walls, or dig for stuff in the refrigerator (EDITORS NOTE: Whoever the jerk was that taught my two-year old son how to unscrew a light bulb…you’re a real asshole).

Police Officers

            Amazingly, it took me 36 hours to come up with police officers as an option for this list, even though they should’ve been a slam-dunk, first ballot nominee. There isn’t a more thankless job on Earth.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (9/21-9/23)

10. Jon Jones Survives An Early Armbar, Submits Vitor Belfort
            To the dismay of Dana White and millions of disgruntled MMA fans everywhere, a dislocated elbow wasn’t enough to hold down Jon Jones.

9. Denny Hamlin Dominates in New Hampshire

            A solid bounce-back by No Credentials preseason championship pick. Even despite his crew trying to hijack his qualifying effort, Hamlin methodically picked his way through the field from his 32^nd starting spot. He’ll be one of the favorites next week when the circuit moves on to Dover.

8. Bears Win 23-6

            This game wasn’t really all that awesome, but I did pick Chicago in the Sportsbook 100K Survivor Pool.

7. Notre Dame Shuts Down Michigan

            It’s time to call your crazy Catholic uncle who gave up on college football 12 years ago…Notre Dame is back.

6. Falcons, Texans, and Cardinals Last Undefeated Teams Left in NFL

            Who had that trio pegged as the last teams to lose in the league? All three look legit after impressive wins Sunday.

5. Minnesota Vikings Shock 49ers
            I’ll be the first to dub Sunday’s shocking result in the Metrodome “The Christian Ponder Game”.

4. Replacement Refs Make Complete Mess of Lions-Titans Game

            I’d knock the replacements more, but this game did turn out to be the most entertaining one of the week, so maybe they deserve some of the credit. Here’s the list of wacky things that happened.

-         A reenactment of the famous “Music City Miracle” occurred, resulting in a 65-yard punt return for the Titans.

-         Jake Locker completed touchdowns of both 61 and 71 yards.

-         Lions runningback Mikel Leshoure ran for 100 yards, which I think is the first time a Lions runningback broke the century mark since Barry Sanders in 1998.

-         Tennessee was up 20-9. Detroit was then up 27-20. Tennessee was then up 41-27. Naturally, the game went to overtime.

-         The game went to overtime after Detroit scored two touchdowns in 18 seconds, with the second being of the Hail-Mary variety.

             I don’t think the writers of “Playmakers” could of pumped more crazy shit into one script than what happened in this game.

3. Sean Payton Does Matter, Saints Are 0-3
            As soon as his suspension is over, Sean Payton better be asking for a raise.

2. Ravens Win Wild, 31-30 Game Over New England
1. Torrey Smith Honors His Brother
            Let’s forget for a moment that the refs put on one of the most uneven displays of officiating in NFL history.. Let’s also forget that Bill Belichick grabbed an official, and then his head looked like it was going to explode during his post-game press conference. Let’s instead focus on Torrey Smith, who’s brother passed away in a motorcycle accident just 19 hours before kickoff. Playing on an hour of broken sleep, Smith caught six passes for 127 yards and two critical touchdowns. His first fired up the Ravens after the Patriots stormed out to a 13-0 lead. It was hard not to get goose bumps as he pointed to the sky. It’s usually overkill to say that any professional athlete’s performance was inspiring, but Torrey Smith’s accomplishments Sunday night fit that description

Week 3 NFL Picks

St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43
            A combination of people being too down on Jay Cutler after his stink-bomb at Lambeau plus people being too high on the Rams after knocking off RGIII make this line three points too low.

BEARS (-7) over Rams

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 46
            After last week’s debacle in Seattle, I can’t trust my Cowboys to win by more than a touchdown.

Buccaneers (+8) over COWBOYS

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43
            The best team in the league against one of the five worst? Sign me up.

49ers (-7) over VIKINGS

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 47.5
            I’m still not crazy about this Lions team, but Tennessee has clearly been the worst team in the league.

Lions (-4) over TITANS

Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 49.5
            It will take a week or two for Washington to figure out how to play defense without two of their best players. In other news, I love the over.

Bengals (+3) over REDSKINS

 

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 41
            Reggie Bush will not look like the modern day version of Gale Sayers Sunday against the Jets.

Jets (-1) over DOLPHINS

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 53
            The discombobulated mess that is the New Orleans Saints should not be favored by more than 3 against anyone.

Chiefs (+8.5) over SAINTS
Top-5 Pick of the Week

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
            Somehow, Cleveland is 1-0-1 against the spread. I won’t be surprised if I get this pick wrong.

Bills (-3) over BROWNS

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 43
            What an unwatchable game.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:00pm, FOX, O/U 42
            Nothing that has happened the first two weeks statistically would indicate that Philadelphia should win this game. So when Philly turns it over six times and still wins by 3, at least I can blame my loss on logic.

CARDINALS (+3.5) over Eagles

 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers

Sunday, 4:00pm, FOX, O/U 47.5
            No idea what to do with this one, so I’ll take the points.

Falcons (+3) over CHARGERS

 

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, 4:30pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
            Peyton Manning owned the Texans during his time in Indianapolis (which isn’t really saying that much, because Houston was a joke for the majority of Manning’s career). I think he figures out a way to pull this one out, wobbly passes and all.

BRONCOS (+2) over Texans

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders

Sunday, 4:30pm, CBS, O/U 45.5
            Pittsburgh has had a hard time playing in Oakland historically, but losing to this ragged Raiders squad would take an extreme amount of ineptitude.

Steelers (-4) over RAIDERS

Top-5 Pick
 

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 49.5
            You usually shouldn’t bet against New England a week after they lost. However, going on the road against an equally talented club that also lost isn’t a good thing. How quick the Patriots offense can adapt to more conventional single tight end sets will determine their success in this game. I flip flopped three times before committing to this pick, so don't wager any money based on my pick.

Patriots (+2.5) over RAVENS

 

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 8:30pm, ESPN, O/U 45
            Green Bay isn’t as fucked up as the Cowboys, so I’m guessing they won’t be down 10-0 before Aaron Rodgers takes the field.

Packers (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS

 

Last Week = 10-4-2 (had to have a recount after boasting I picked 11 games correctly on Thursday)

Season Record = 13-17-2

Giants @ Panthers Pick

New York Giants (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-1)
Thursday, 8:30pm, NFL Network

The most under reported story of last weekend had to be the stunning turn of fortune with No Credentials football picks. After a disastorous Week 1, we put up a 11-3-2 Sunday and Monday, which is even more comical because I didn't bet on any of my picks (figures!). However, we are still 0-2 in Thursday night contests (thanks Jay Cutler for last week. It's like you switched bodies with Brandon Weeden in Week 2). This week looks like another tough one, but the loss of Hakeem Nicks has pushed me into Carolina's corner. The Giants are too banged up, and Cam Newton is going to put on a show in his first ever primetime game.

PANTHERS (-2) over Giants

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (9/14-9/16)

10. NHL Owners Lockout the Players
            Sadly, the one sport that No Credentials wouldn’t mind seeing go through a lockout is the only one of the major four that didn’t in the past year.

9. High School Senior Runs for 644 Yards and 10 Touchdowns

            For those of you that owned Oregon Ducks recruit Thomas Tyner in high school football fantasy leagues, he accounted for 124 fantasy points.

8. Notre Dame Wins at Michigan State

            People under 25 may not remember that Notre Dame used to be the most important college football program on Earth, but for all of the old farts out there, it’s great to see the Irish start 3-0.

7. Seahawks Smother Cowboys

            Fortunately, Seattle won the game because of special teams and their defense, not Russell Wilson (who No Credentials has been bashing for weeks).

6. Dwight Howard Says “I Never Wanted to Be Hated”

            He should’ve thought about that before dragging out his trade saga for 18 months. More on him and the terrifying Lakers in our NBA season preview next month.

5. Steelers Blow Out Jets

            As correctly predicted by No Credentials (correct predictions haven’t happened for me much lately, I deserve to gloat a little when it does), the loss of Darrelle Revis was huge. New York might’ve only lost 16-10 instead of 27-10.

4. Sam Bradford Out Duels RGIII

            Griffin was good in this one, but this game belonged to Sam Bradford. Much maligned after a solid rookie campaign in 2010, Bradford reestablished himself as one of the league’s best young quarterbacks with his performance against Washington. 

3. Cam Newton Leads Assault of Saints Defense
            New Orleans would be better off turning their play calling over to a 14-year old, acne infected Madden nerd than what they are stuck with now.

2. USC Loses to Stanford

            Couldn’t be happier that dirtbag Lane Kiffin, who rolled his 22-year old quarterback under the bus Sunday night, lost to Stanford again. No Jim Harbaugh or Andrew Luck? No problem!

1. Cardinals Try to Give Game Away, Still Shock Patriots

            Nearly 4,500 people were eliminated from Sportsbook’s Survivor Pool when Stephen Gostkowski shanked a 43-yard field goal. Glad I picked the Bengals.

Week 2 NFL Picks

            Short disclaimer before we get to the Week 2 picks…my picks last week were awful. Horrendous. Worse than Jimmy Carter’s performance in the White House. Let’s just look at some of the simple things I attempted to bet against in Week 1.

-         I forgot about my rule to bet against teams that spend a bunch of time in jail, hence the reason for not picking the Rams to cover.

-         I forgot that picking a quarterback making his first start against Tom Brady was a bad idea.

-         I forgot that you should never bet against Peyton Manning at night.

-         I forgot that I picked the Saints to be a mediocre team in the pre-season when I said that they’d blow out the Redskins. It’s like I was hit in the head between writing my NFC South preview and my Week 1 picks.

-         I forgot that you should never, EVER, bet against a team honoring a dead owner. I considered retiring from football picks all together after picking the Bengals to keep it close against Baltimore.

            Have faith that I’ve pledged to buckle down and make a comeback in Week 2. My goal is to be at .500 going into Week 3.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 44
            New York is getting Prince Amukamara back, which should substantially improve the Giants pass defense. I’ll guess that eleven days will be enough time for the Giants to be sufficiently motivated after their sloppy performance against Dallas

GIANTS (-7) over Buccaneers

 

Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            Arizona, playing on the east coast, with Kevin Kolb at quarterback, at 1:00pm (10:00am Pacific time). If you do a two or three-team teaser that doesn’t involve the Patriots, you’re a dumbass.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Cardinals

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 44.5
            Blaine Gabbert looked competent against the Vikings, so this looks like the perfect recipe for an Andrew Luck breakout performance.

COLTS (+2) over Vikings

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 51.5
            New Orleans is a mess. Even though Carolina looked terrible last week, at least they don’t have an interim interim coach.

PANTHERS (+2.5) over Saints

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 45
            This match-up has the feel of an elimination game. Hard to believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Cassel could lead their clubs out of 0-2 holes. I’m not bailing on the Bills yet, so I’ll lose with them for one more week.

BILLS (-3) over Chiefs

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 46.5
            For my money, the hardest game to predict this week. Philadelphia was the worst looking Week 1 winner, but typically plays up (or down) to the level of their competition. Baltimore was fantastic, but Joe Flacco has been prone to laying crap sandwiches in road games. I guess when all else fails, take the points.

Ravens (+2) over EAGLES

 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 39.5
            Miami is horrible enough that even playing in the late Monday night game and then traveling across the country to play at 1 won’t sway me from taking the Raiders.

Raiders (-2.5) over DOLPHINS

 

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 39
            Brandon Weeden bombed more than “Battleship” did at the box office. He should not ever be less than a 10-point underdog.

BENGALS (-7) over Browns

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 41
            Houston is one of the five best teams in the league. Jacksonville is one of the five worst. I’ll tip my cap to Blaine Gabbert if he pulls a second straight last-minute cover out of his ass.

Texans (-7) over JAGUARS

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:00pm, FOX, O/U 42.5
            About the only thing I was right about last week was Russell Wilson sucking. I’ll stand by that this week.

Cowboys (-3) over SEAHAWKS

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams

Sunday, 4:00pm, FOX, O/U 44
            Lets see how Robert Griffin III looks against a team that actually has coaching.

RAMS (+3.5) over Redskins

 

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 4:30pm, CBS, O/U 41.5
            This isn’t a game you want to go into without Darrelle Revis if you are the Jets. Expect big games from Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

STEELERS (-5.5) over Jets

Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers

Sunday, 4:30pm, CBS, O/U 43
            I think my combined record in picking games involving the Chargers and Titans over the past two years is 5-27. I’ll begrudgingly take the home team, only because Chris Johnson looks like a guy who’s really happy about his paycheck.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Titans
 

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 46
            Detroit is essentially a lesser version of the Green Bay Packers. San Francisco just won in Lambeau last week. I rest my case.

49ERS (-7) over Lions

Top-5 Pick of the Week

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons

Monday, 8:30pm, ESPN, O/U 51.5
            Kudos to the NFL for scheduling Peyton Manning two straight weeks in primetime. I’m going to bet against him a second straight week because I love losing.

FALCONS (-3) over Broncos

Week 1 Picks = 3-13 (YIKES!)

Thursday Pick = 0-1 (sigh…)

 

            This might be the last picks column you ever read if I throw up another 3-13 week.

2012 NASCAR Chase For The Cup Rankings

            The title of this post is pretty self-explanatory. In reverse order, here is our pre-Chase ranking of the 12-man field.

Fortunate To Be Here

12. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Childress cars just haven’t had the speed this season (some say that has to do with the car owner focusing on the careers of his grandsons). He’s been finishing consistently in the top-10 or 15, but that won’t get it done in The Chase.

Need To See It Before I Believe It

11. Martin Truex Jr., #56 Napa Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Truex made his first Chase since 2007 when he was driving for DEI. He’s been impressive, and has a great chance of winning at Chicago the opening weekend, but I don’t see him stringing together a championship winning Chase. If he’s back next year with a couple of wins when The Chase starts, I’ll think about it.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Dale Jr. has been much more impressive this season, racking up a win at Michigan and having cars capable of winning on multiple occasions. A fast start is vital for him, as he typically has a miserable performance in the opening race of The Chase. If he rips off a top-5 Sunday, this ranking will look silly.

(EDITORS NOTE: Before any members of “Junior Nation” send me nasty messages on Twitter, please note that I ranked Tony Stewart tenth before last year’s Chase. You all know what happened next) 

Legitimate Title Contenders

9. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing

            One has to think that Dodge’s impending departure from NASCAR will have an impact eventually. Expect a fade from the blue deuce.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Bowyer has exceeded No Credentials’ expectations this season, leading the stunning renaissance at Michael Waltrip Racing. He’s performed well at most of The Chase venues, and based on Sportsbook’s odds, represents the best long shot pick to win the title (he’s 20 to 1). 

7. Matt Kenseth, #17 Best Buy Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            If only Kenseth wasn’t a lame duck driver. Hard to believe that he won’t play second fiddle to Greg Biffle in the Roush pecking order.

6. Tony Stewart, #14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            Smoke peaked back in March, and with the exception of a summer win at Daytona, hasn’t been as impressive since. Stewart isn’t as bad off as he was last year (loyal leaders will recall that I ranked him tenth going in to last year’s Chase. Oops), so you can’t rule out the possibility of him going on a 2011-like tear.

5. Jeff Gordon, #24 Dupont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

 

 

            Do yourself a favor and play the following video. Fast-forward to about the 9:20 mark and then watch the move Jeff Gordon pulled on Rusty Wallace.

            For the first time in 13 years, Jeff Gordon drove that hard when he muscled his way through the field at Richmond last Saturday night. We’ll see if that carries over into a Chase winning run the next ten weeks.

4. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            After a disastrous start to the season, Kahne has been one of the steadiest drivers on the circuit since May. He’ll have speed at every Chase track. It’s just a matter of staying out of trouble.

3. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            This year’s top seed (and No Credentials preseason championship pick), Hamlin appears to be peaking at the perfect time. Being the only hope for a Gibbs championship will only boost Hamlin’s title chances.

2. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The regular season point’s leader, Biffle has had the kind of consistency that is needed to win a championship all year long. Even better for him, he is likely Roush’s top dog in the fight (with Cousin Carl missing the Chase, and Kenseth being a lame duck). If he survives Loudon and Martinsville with solid top-15 finishes, he’ll be a serious title threat when the green flag drops at Homestead in November.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Johnson has more Top-5s and Top-10s than anyone. By my count, he could’ve won five other races if it weren’t for a pit road or on-track mishap that derailed him. He’s been fast everywhere. It’s going to take a super human effort to keep Johnson from winning his sixth championship.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/7-9/9)

10. Washington Nationals Shut Down Stephen Strasburg
            I’m all for making long-term decisions, but taking Strasburg out of the 2012 playoffs doesn’t just hurt the Nationals, it hurts all of baseball. For a sport dealing with sagging TV ratings, having it’s top-pitching phenom would’ve been a welcome boost.

9. Successful Appeal Allows Suspended “Bountygate” Players to Play

            It’s about time Sheriff Goodell got a slap on the wrist.

8. Serena Williams Survives, Wins Fourth US Open Title

            I was in junior high school when Serena Williams won her first major title. That’s scary.

7. Louisiana-Monroe Upsets #8 Arkansas

            College football isn’t on the No Credentials radar, but we do love it the epic David vs. Goliath upsets that occur every year or two during the opening weeks of the season.

6. Brady Gets His Schnozz Busted, Leads Patriots Blow Out Anyway

            There wasn’t a more terrifying performance in the NFL than what the New England Patriots delivered Sunday. Stevan Ridley was fantastic, racking up 125 yards and a touchdown. The defense was rock solid, with their two first round picks creating a touchdown, and Titans star Chris Johnson only managing four yards on eleven carries (apologizes to you suckers who drafted him in fantasy leagues this year). 

5. Adrian Peterson Makes Emphatic Return

            Just over nine months ago, Peterson tore his ACL. Incredibly, he looks like it never happened. Don’t be surprised if it comes out that Peterson is a Terminator.

4. Jeff Gordon Makes Miraculous Rally to Make Chase

            An ill-handling racecar dropped him all the way back to 25^th, one lap down. Incredibly, Jeff Gordon’s crew adjusted his car, and Gordon reminded everyone what made him the king of the sport in the late ‘90s. It didn’t matter that Gordon finished second to Clint Bowyer. This run may be the springboard for him to finally capture a fifth championship.

3. Alex Smith, Randy Moss Shine in 49ers Victory at Lambeau Field
            What do you know defense does still matter!

2. Robert Griffin III Silences No Credentials, Leads Upset of Saints

            This blog bashed the trade Washington made to get Robert Griffin III. Multiple times. By my count, at least on five different occasions. Part of their success today may be attributed to the mess that is the New Orleans Saints (I guess a head coach does matter. Should’ve remembered that before I wagered $50 on them), but nevertheless, No Credentials has to tip their cap to RGIII and the Washington Redskins.

1. Peyton Manning Still Has It

            He wasn’t chucking it deep like he was back in the day to Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison, but other than that, it looked like the old Peyton Manning Sunday night.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            I attempted to talk myself into a Colts cover (I even typed three sentences making a case for it), but with the removal of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, it’s much more likely that Chicago jams the ball down the Colts’ throats all game long. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis won’t have many opportunities to get Jay Cutler to the ground.

BEARS (-10) over Colts

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43
            Short of a road trip to Jacksonville, Philadelphia couldn’t of asked for a better Week 1 road game. There’s too much Brandon Weeden involved to support a Browns upset.

Eagles (-9.5) over BROWNS

 

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 38.5
            I’m on the record as saying I think the Jets will stink and the Bills will be playoff contenders, and I’m not backing down from that belief. Buffalo’s revamped defense will be able to handle New York’s quarterbacks (regardless of which one is in the game). It won’t be pretty, but look for Buffalo to make a statement on the road.

Bills (+3) over JETS

 

Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 49.5
            This game is going to be a savage, 2007-Patriot like beat-down. Robert Griffin III could account for three touchdowns and the ‘Skins could still lose by 30.

SAINTS (-7.5) over Redskins

Week 1 Top-5 Pick

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            Tennessee isn’t as bad as most experts seem to be predicting. Assuming Jake Locker is competent, Tennessee’s pass rush will keep the Titans close. I wouldn’t bet the Titans’ money line, but I’ll go out on a small limb and say they only lose to the Patriots by 3.

TITANS (+5.5) over Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 39.5
            Here’s this week’s winner of the “Game With the Most Implications on Who Gets the First Overall Pick in Next Year’s Draft Award”. This could be the only week that Minnesota is favored to win all season, but it is 100% warranted. Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting quarterback in the league. He’ll have a hard time keeping his eyes off of Jared Allen.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Jaguars

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            Ron Jaworski said a couple of nice things about Dolphins rookie Ryan Tannehill on “Pardon the Interruption” the other day. I’m not buying them.

TEXANS (-13) over Dolphins
 

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 45.5
            I don’t completely trust the Lions this year, but asking St. Louis to keep this game within two scores is asking a lot. Detroit’s warts won’t show up until Week 2.

LIONS (-8) over Rams

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43.5
            For my brain anyway, this is the hardest game to predict. Atlanta has generated more buzz this off-season, but Kansas City returns three key players who missed the majority of last season with ACL injuries to a team that two years ago was in the playoffs. When in doubt, take the points.

CHIEFS (+3) over Falcons

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47
            At first glance, one would call this game the battle of an immovable object (the 49ers defense) against an unstoppable force (the Packers offense). However, one should remember the immovable object gave up 466 passing yards to Drew Brees in the Divisional Round last January. Aaron Rodgers will figure out a way to pull this one out.     

PACKERS (-5) over 49ers

 

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47
            This was another tough call, but let’s talk about the over/under. You’re telling me that two of the worst defenses from last season can’t allow seven touchdowns? I love the over. Remember that when the final score is 24-21 Carolina.

Panthers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 41
            Unpopular opinion alert…Russell Wilson is going to suck. Sure he looked great when preseason defenses were running vanilla plays, but watch what happens when he has to deal with a zone blitz. I can’t figure out how people have been so quick to jump on the Wilson bandwagon. Remember this when he throws four touchdowns against the Cardinals.

CARDINALS (+3) over Seahawks

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 44.5
            I lost a ton of money when the combo of God and Tim Tebow brought down Pittsburgh in the playoffs last season, so it’s only fitting that I pick the Steelers again as one of my Top-5 Picks of the week. Peyton Manning is one of the five greatest quarterbacks to ever chuck the pigskin, but to think he’ll lead Denver to victory in his first game in two years is preposterous, especially against one of the top-5 defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. 

Steelers (+2) over BRONCOS

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Monday, 7:00pm, ESPN, O/U 41.5
            Cincinnati kept it close against Baltimore twice last season. Seven points is too high for this line.

Bengals (+7) over RAVENS

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Monday, 10:20pm, ESPN, O/U 46.5
            The second game of ESPN’s doubleheader (which you should all be prepared to watch with your mute on, Chris Berman is doing the play-by-play) always seems to be a weird game. Assuming Darren McFadden doesn’t pull his groin until after the start of the fourth quarter, I think the Raiders will pull off a win at home.

RAIDERS (-1) over Chargers

 

Thursday Pick = 0-1 (great reverse jinx by me!)

Classic NASCAR Crash of the Week - Richmond

Had to do some serious digging to find this week's crash. Sorry for the mediocre video quality, but at least you get to hear the old ESPN jingle when the bottom line came up.

 

 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Week 1 Pick

            Here comes our second installment of full-season NFL picks. We’ll change up the format a little bit (mostly because I stunk during the second half of last season), so here are the changes you’ll see.

-         I won’t list the pick until the end of each game’s write-up (kind of stupid to spoil it. What was I thinking?)

-         Instead of ranking my confidence scores for each game, I will simply highlight five games that are among my Top-5 picks of the week. People searching for advice on contests similar to the Hilton’s Super Contest will still be able to see the five games I like the most, and I won’t have to expend brainpower deciding which game I feel the third or fourth shakiest about. My wife will vouch for me, the less brainpower I have to use, the better.

-         I’ll list the day, time, network the game is airing on, and what the over/under is for each match-up. Not sure why, but I feel like it.

           Now on to our season-opening contest. The rest of my week 1 picks will be published Friday or Saturday.
 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Wednesday, 8:35pm, NBC, O/U 45
            A couple of quick disclaimers before you read the following paragraph. Number one, I’m a diehard Cowboys fan. Number two, I despise the Giants. I will pull hard for Dallas to pull off a major upset tomorrow night, but there is one undeniable fact that can’t be ignored.

THE OPENING NIGHT NFL GAME IS THE QUINTESSENTIAL “NO FUCKING WAY GAME” FOR EVERY ROAD TEAM

            Ever since this annual event became the “Homecoming Game” for the defending Super Bowl champions, no road team has ever won the opening night tilt. Call me a pessimist, but Tony Romo and the Cowboys, whose failings in primetime are comical at this point, are not the team to buck this system. Dallas will score points, and it might even be close at the end, but there’s no way the Giants lose this game (unless you’re playing “Madden 13”. DeMarco Murray ran for 213 on the Giants in my coach career/franchise/whatever EA wants to call their team running mode, and the Dallas D stifled the Giants in a 44-10 beat down. This probably speaks more to my Madden ability than the talent level of the Cowboys, so let’s just move on). If I didn’t have a dog in the fight, I would wager anywhere from 25 to 50% of my gambling funds on the Giants.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

 

(if this isn’t as bold an attempt to use a blog to cast a reverse jinx on the Giants, than I don’t know what is. Go Cowboys!)