2014 AFC West Preview

4. Oakland Raiders

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Jets, Texans, @ Patriots, Dolphins, BYE, Chargers, Cardinals, @ Browns, @ Seahawks, Broncos, @ Chargers, Chiefs, @ Rams, 49ers, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Broncos

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Marcel Reece

Solid Contributors = WR James Jones, LT Donald Penn, C Stefen Wisniewski, DE LaMarr Woodley, DE Justin Tuck, DT Antonio Smith, CB Tarell Brown, SS Tyvon Branch

Impact Rookies = OLB Khalil Mack (1-5, Buffalo)

Good News = They’ve shed almost all of their dead contracts, giving them salary cap flexibility for the first time since the Jon Gruden era.

Bad News = In an anonymous player poll, Oakland was voted as the least desirable team to play for in the league.

Outlook = If the Raiders didn’t face such a hellacious schedule in 2014, we’d be a little more enthusiastic about their chances to reach .500 this year. As it stands, it’s an improved roster with plenty of long-term flexibility going forward. Matt Schaub was brought in to start the season at quarterback, but don’t be shocked if Derek Carr is the one who finishes it. Carr showed a much higher ceiling during the pre-season before suffering a concussion last Friday against Detroit. Against all odds, Darren McFadden resigned on a one-year prove it deal, and he’ll share carries with Jaguars castoff Maurice Jones-Drew. Perhaps if they start the year splitting carries, maybe one of them will still be healthy at the end of the year. The receiving core is interesting, but we aren’t confident that the current quarterback situation will be able to take advantage of it. James Jones was signed from Green Bay, and he provides a solid deep threat. Rod Streeter hauled in 60 passes last year (a lot of them from Matt McGloin!), and Denarius Moore has shown flashes of big play ability. The Raiders most intriguing offensive player is tight end Mychal Rivera, who after being drafted in the sixth round last year, will get the opportunity for full-time work this year. Oakland’s offensive line will feature four new starters, and the ability of that group to develop chemistry will be the biggest factor in the Raiders being a competent offensive club.

            Defensively is where the Raiders should plan to hang their hat this year, as the majority of their off-season moves were made to improve a unit that gave up the second most points in franchise history. Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith were all solid free agent pickups that immediately improve their defense. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers were brought over from across the Bay to bolster a defense that was the fifth worst in the NFL. Tyvon Branch only played two games last year, so his return to health will also provide a lift. The linebacking core is the weakest link of the group, with Khalil Mack needing to provide an immediate lift.

Prediction = The record will still stink, but at least the Raiders are moving in the right direction. 4-12

 3. Kansas City Chiefs

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in AFC West, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = Titans, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, Patriots, @ 49ers, BYE, @ Chargers, Rams, Jets, @ Bills, Seahawks, @ Raiders, Broncos, @ Cardinals, Raiders, @ Steelers, Chargers

Blue Chippers = HB Jamaal Charles, DT Dontari Poe

High Quality Players = MLB Derrick Johnson, OLB Justin Houston, OLB Tamba Hali, SS Eric Berry

Solid Contributors = WR Dwayne Bowe, DE Mike DeVito

Impact Rookies = DE Dee Ford (1-23, Auburn)

Good News = Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are healthy to start the season.

Bad News = Can you say regression?

Outlook = Last year, Kansas City parlayed the good fortune of facing one of the weakest schedules in recent memory into a playoff appearance. This year, they aren’t so fortunate. With the exception of their road trip to Oakland, none of their away games are easy on paper. That would make running the table at home almost a requirement if they are to make a playoff push, but with Denver, New England, and Seattle coming to Arrowhead, that is also unlikely. How competitive they are will likely depend on how much star pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are on the field. When they are causing havoc, this is one of the elite defensive units in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

            The offense should’ve been called “Jamaal Charles and the Kansas City Chiefs” last year, because he literally put the team on his back. Charles led the team in rushing and receiving while piling up a league high 19 total touchdowns. His ability to be effective in the passing game keeps his fantasy value high in spite of the retooled offensive line he’ll be working with this year. Kansas City lost three starters from their line last year, and desperately need Eric Fisher to emerge as a star in his first full season at left tackle. Carolina is the only team in the league that features a more pathetic core of wide receivers, as Dwayne Bowe looked washed up at times in 2013.

Prediction = Kansas City will struggle against the NFC West, which will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for their playoff hopes. 7-9

2. San Diego Chargers

2013 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC West, Lost AFC Divisional Game

2014 Schedule = @ Cardinals, Seahawks, @ Bills, Jaguars, Jets, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, BYE, Raiders, Rams, @ Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, @ 49ers, @ Chiefs

Blue Chippers = FS Eric Weddle

High Quality Players = QB Phillip Rivers, WR Keenan Allen

Solid Contributors = HB Ryan Matthews, HB Danny Woodhead, WR Malcolm Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, LT King Dunlap, C Nick Hardwick, RT D.J. Fluker, OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Brandon Flowers

Impact Rookies = CB Jason Verrett (1-25, TCU), OLB Jerry Attaochu (2-50, Georgia Tech)

Good News = Phillip Rivers has reestablished himself as a true franchise quarterback.

Bad News = San Diego still needs to prove it can be consistent week to week.

Outlook = The Chargers are one of the trendier dark horse picks in the AFC, and for good reason. Only division rival Denver generated more passing yards last year, and San Diego won five of their last six to sneak into the playoffs. The offense should still be very good, with depth across the board at all of the skill positions. If they can incorporate second-string tight end Ladarius Green into the rotation, the offense will become even more potent. Ryan Matthews wasn’t necessarily spectacular, but his surprising run of health provided stability in the running game. Keenan Allen was a sensation upon his insertion into the starting lineup, and should put up monster numbers with the chance to be featured for a full 16 games. Their offensive line was competent for the first time in years, and should take more steps forward with some progression by King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker.

            A porous pass defense is the main reason San Diego had to scratch and claw it’s way into a wildcard spot (they made Chiefs backup Chase McDaniel look like the second coming of Joe Montana in Week 17), but fortunately the Chargers were aggressive in addressing this weakness. Brandon Flowers was signed after he was released by Kansas City, and he will be paired with first round pick Jason Verrett in a rebuilt secondary. Jerry Attaochu will likely need to make a decent impact, because it’s hard to for see Dwight Freeney staying healthy the entire season.     

Prediction = San Diego will sneak up to 10 wins, but they still aren’t quite at Denver’s level yet. 10-6 

1. Denver Broncos

2013 Record = 13-3, AFC West Champions, Lost Super Bowl

2014 Schedule = Colts, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, BYE, Cardinals, @ Jets, 49ers, Chargers, @ Patriots, @ Raiders, @ Rams, Dolphins, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Chargers, @ Bengals, Raiders

Blue Chippers = QB Peyton Manning, OLB Von Miller

High Quality Players = WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Julius Thomas, LT Ryan Clady, RG Louis Vasquez, DT Terrance Knighton, DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib, CB Chris Harris, SS T.J. Ward

Solid Contributors = WR Wes Welker, LG Orlando Franklin, C Manny Ramirez, OLB Danny Trevathan

Impact Rookies = CB Bradley Roby (1-31, Ohio State), WR Cody Latimer (2-56, Indiana)

Good News = On paper, no team did more to improve it’s defense during the off-season than Denver.

Bad News = They get a Super Bowl rematch in Week 3.

Outlook = After getting obliterated by Seattle in the Super Bowl last February, it’s easy to point out flaws in the Broncos, and even make a case that San Diego could overtake them in their own division. However, when you take a step back and look at the overall landscape in the AFC, it’s easy to see that they are by far the deepest team in the Conference. Ryan Clady’s return will stabilize the entire offensive line, and the addition of DeMarcus Ware provides another elite pass rusher to take some pressure off of Von Miller. What could be the difference if Denver is to win a Super Bowl could be the health of Wes Welker and Chris Harris. Welker has suffered three concussions in the last 10 months, and Harris developed into a shutdown corner before going down with a knee injury in the playoffs.

Prediction = With or without Welker this season, the offense is solid enough to win another AFC West title. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the NFC South

Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the NFC North

So Long and Good Luck DeMarcus Ware

 



     Over the years, we've periodically taken time to pay homage to players that are leaving Big D (or in the case of Terrance Newman, celebrating his departure from Dallas), so it only makes sense that we pay tribute to the greatest Cowboys player since the end of the Big 3 era.
     A first round pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, Ware immediatly established himself as an elite pass rusher. He finishes his time in Dallas as the team's all-time leading sack leader with 117, and his run from 2006 through 2012 will be hard for any future Cowboy to match. Injuries and (slightly) deteroriating skills caught up with him last year, as he posted a career low six sacks, and for the first time, didn't force a fumble all year (his career high for forced fumbles was six in 2008). It's sad to see him go, but you can't have an aging player with a declining skill set hogging up $16 million in cap space.
    The ineptness of his fellow teammates limited Ware to only being involved in one playoff victory (a 2009-10 wildcard game against Philadelphia that he dominated), so hopefully he lands with a Super Bowl contending team. A place where he isn't the focal point, and can get some extra rest on the sidelines, would be ideal.
     For my money, his most memorable moment was in 2009, when just a week after it looked like he might've suffered a serious neck injury, he made the game-sealing play to end New Orleans' chance at an undefeated season.



 

 

     So long DeMarcus. I hope you don't sign with the Redskins. Or Giants. Or Eagles.

2013 NFC East Preview

         Our second division preview discusses the division closest to the heart of No Credentials. Each team has a division title in each of the last four years, a fact no other division can claim.


4. Philadelphia Eagles

 

2012 Record = 4-12, fourth in NFC East

2013 Schedule = @ Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Giants, @ Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, @ Raiders, @ Packers, Redskins, BYE, Cardinals, Lions, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Cowboys

Franchise Players = RB LeSean McCoy, LG Evan Mathis

Supporting Cast = QB Michael Vick, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin (out for year, torn ACL), TE Brent Celek, LT Jason Peters, RG Todd Herremans, DT Fletcher Cox, OLB Conner Barwin, OLB Brandon Graham, MLB DeMeco Ryans, OLB Trent Cole
Notable Rookies = RT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma, 1-4), TE Zach Ertz (Stanford, 2-35), QB Matt Barkley (USC, 4-98)

Offensive Outlook = I’d like to make this the 52,928,393^rd page on the Internet that says the Philadelphia Eagles will play fast. If that translates to victories or not is questionable. A quick hitting offense will go along way in keeping Michael Vick (No Credentials has been wrong before, but we don’t see Nick “the Pizza Delivery Man” Foles or Matt Barkley winning the starting gig) on the field, as will the return of a healthy Jason Peters. If Lane Johnson catches on quickly, Philadelphia will have its best pair of offensive tackles since Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas. Regardless of the offense’s effectiveness, LeSean McCoy should make a return to his elite 2011 form after a concussion-riddled season last year. Chip Kelly ran the ball a ton at Oregon, so there’s no reason to expect he’ll abandon it in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Bryce Brown also has a chance to provide value if Philly commits to 30 carries a game. The passing attack took a huge hit with the loss of Maclin. DeSean Jackson is still around, and could set a career high in receptions if he is utilized on quick screens. Arrelious Benn has the size and speed to fill Maclin’s shoes, but never produced at an elite level during his time in Tampa Bay.  
Defensive Outlook = The Eagles are making a switch to a 3-4 base defense, which unfortunately they do not have the personal for. DeMeco Ryans played in the 3-4 at Houston, but other than that there’s a bunch of square pegs that need to fit into round holes. Asking Trent Cole to play linebacker is similar to signing Adam Sandler up to play Gandhi, as he brings virtually no coverage or run stopping skills to the table. Philadelphia blew up their secondary, which if new safeties Kenny Phillips and Patrick Chung stay healthy, will be an improvement.  

Ceiling = 10-6 – Vick needs to stay on the field for ten games and not suck. 0.002% chance this happens.

Floor = 2-14 – “Barkley drops back to pass, fires…INTERCEPTED!”
Prediction = 3-13
            They will be entertaining, and two of their wins will probably come against the Cowboys, but the lack of defensive talent will be the undoing of the Eagles. Sucking probably isn’t a terrible thing, as they’ll have a great chance to land a franchise quarterback in next year’s draft.
 

3. Washington Redskins

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in NFC East

2013 Schedule = Eagles, @ Packers, Lions, @ Raiders, BYE, @ Cowboys, Bears, @ Broncos, Chargers, @ Vikings, @ Eagles, 49ers, Giants, Chiefs, @ Falcons, Cowboys, @ Giants

Franchise Players = QB Robert Griffin III, RB Alfred Morris, LT Trent Williams, OLB Brian Orakpo

Supporting Cast = TE Fred Davis, C Will Montgomery, MLB London Fletcher, OLB Ryan Kerrigan, CB DeAngelo Hall, K Kai Forbath
Notable Rookies = CB David Amerson (N.C. State, 2-51), TE Jordan Reed (Florida, 3-85)

Offensive Outlook = We could talk about how awesome Alfred Morris is, or how good Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis could be if they could stay on the field, but everything for the Redskins boils down to Robert Griffin III. Off-hand, here’s the questions surrounding RGIII as we enter the season.

Is he healthy?

Will he have his mobility?

Can he dial back his scrambling to avoid serious hits?

            If the answer to those three questions is yes, you can pencil in the Redskins for a second straight division title.

Defensive Outlook = Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett ran the same defense I normally run in Madden, which meant he blitzed six or seven guys 50% of the time. The return of Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker hopefully means they can dial back the blitz, as it often left their mediocre secondary in one-on-one coverage. Orakpo in particular is capable of single-handedly dominating games. The linebacker core is solid, led by 96-year-old London Fletcher.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Robert Griffin III will be hoisting an MVP trophy if Washington wins 12 games.

Floor = 3-13 – Kirk Cousins looked good when pressed into action, but he’s not that good.
Prediction = 7-9
            I’m a logic driven person, and logically, I can’t see RGIII holding up. It won’t be shocking if they come out of the gate 3-1, but they are one big hit on their franchise quarterback away from becoming a team that can’t overcome it’s defensive deficiencies. Kirk Cousins getting a four game cameo might not be the worst thing long term, as he could be a tool to reacquire some draft picks (remember, there 2014 first rounder is going to St. Louis).
 

2. New York Giants

 

 

2012 Record = 9-7, second in NFC East

2013 Schedule = @ Cowboys, Broncos, @ Panthers, @ Chiefs, Eagles, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Eagles, BYE, Raiders, Packers, Cowboys, @ Redskins, @ Chargers, Seahawks, @ Lions, Redskins

Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz, DE Jason Pierre-Paul

Supporting Cast = RB David Wilson, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE Brandon Myers, LT Will Beatty, RG David Snee, DE Justin Tuck, DT Cullen Jenkins, FS Antrel Rolle
Notable Rookies = RT Justin Pugh (Syracuse, 1-19), DT Johnathan Hankins (Ohio St., 2-49)

Offensive Outlook = For proof of how mind-numbingly inconsistent the Giants were on offense last year, here’s the amount of points they scored in each game last season.

17

41
36
17
41
26
27
29
20
13
38
16
52
0
14
42

            For those not interested in counting, there were six games they scored more than 35 points, and six games they scored under 20. I guess that’s the price you pay for employing Eli Manning as your starting quarterback. Manning can be as clutch as any quarterback in the NFL, but also is capable of delivering a slew of stinkers (see his week 8 through 10 stats last year for proof of this). Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, but that opens the door for electrifying second year pro David Wilson. Wilson spent some time in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse last year, but has the big play ability that the Giants have been lacking in the running game since Tiki Barber was in town. Victor Cruz was effective last year, but he needs a healthy Hakeem Nicks to free up opposing defenses’ focus on him. Nicks is playing for a new contract next year, and if his health doesn’t fail him, he’ll be motivated. Reuben Randle was raw as a rookie, but has the physical ability to make an impact in his second season. Brandon Myers productivity in Oakland was noticed by roughly 600 people, but Giants fans should be sure that they have an upgrade over Martellus Bennett.

Defensive Outlook = The hallmark of the New York’s two Super Bowl victories over New England was it’s devastating pass rush. Unfortunately, their rush was absent in 2012. The Giants sack total dropped to 33 (down from 48 in 2011), and most of that can be attributed to an out-of-shape Jason Pierre-Paul. An entire defense whose success was predicated on pressuring the quarterback collapsed. It’s reasonable to expect J.P.P. to rebound (he admitted he wasn’t physically prepared for last season), but expecting Justin Tuck to return to his past level of performance is asking too much. Cullen Jenkins was their big free agent acquisition, and he’s the best defensive tackle they’ve had since Tom Coughlin has been the head coach. It’s incredible that Corey Webster still has a job in the NFL after his abysmal 2012 campaign, but New York is banking on a rebound by their embattled starting cornerback. Aaron Ross does return after a year in Jacksonville, and will provide solid play in the nickel package.   

Ceiling = 14-2 – Eli Manning is due for a consistent 16-game campaign.

Floor = 6-10 – He’s also due for a 28-interception disaster.
Prediction = 9-7
            Is there any other win total you can forecast for the Giants other than nine games? Their first six games will go along way in determining what their season looks like, as they have to navigate four interesting road games. My money is on them starting 3-3, setting them up for a wildcard berth.
 

1. Dallas Cowboys

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in NFC East

2013 Schedule = Giants, @ Chiefs, Rams, @ Chargers, Broncos, Redskins, @ Eagles, @ Lions, Vikings, @ Saints, BYE, @ Giants, Raiders, @ Bears, Packers, @ Redskins, Eagles

Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, DE DeMarcus Ware, DE Anthony Spencer

Supporting Cast = RB DeMarco Murray, WR Miles Austin, LT Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, MLB Sean Lee, OLB Bruce Carter, CB Brandon Carr
Notable Rookies = C Travis Frederick (Wisconsin, 1-31), RB Joseph Randle (Oklahoma St., 5-151)

Offensive Outlook = Everyone knows the book on Tony Romo. We’ve written about it in this space before. The team we just discussed has proven that you can win with a quarterback who isn’t consistent. All of the skill players are there for the Cowboys to succeed. DeMarco Murray has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s injury prone and can’t stay on the field. Rookie Joseph Randle could be able to fill in if needed at an adequate level. Dez Bryant finally broke out last season, and is firmly entrenched as a top-5 receiver in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. If Miles Austin could replace his balky hamstrings, he’d be right there with Bryant as an elite receiver. Jason Witten caught a career high 110 passes this year, and barring an improbable reoccurrence, will not start the season playing with a ruptured spleen. Tyron Smith made a relatively smooth transition to left tackle, but the rest of the line was a disaster. First round pick Travis Frederick should provide some stability to the interior of the line, and Dallas is betting an awful lot on Doug Free returning to his 2009 form.

Defensive Outlook = I’m not sure if there’s a greater change you could make between defensive coordinators than going from Rob Ryan to 176-year-old Monte Kiffin. Unlike Philadelphia, the Cowboys have the personal to make the move from the 3-4 to the 4-3. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will make the move to defensive end, but switching to full-time pass rushing roles isn’t a bad thing for this duo. Jay Ratliff also has a chance to rebound, as a 4-3 scheme gives defensive tackles a better chance to penetrate the offensive line. Jason Hatcher has performed well when called upon, and should thrive now that he has a full-time starting role. Sean Lee and Bruce Carter showed flashes of brilliance last year before having their seasons ended by injury. Brandon Carr brought some stability to the secondary, but Morris Claiborne had a mostly forgettable rookie year. A leap by him in his sophomore campaign would lift the Cowboys to a top-10 level defense.

Ceiling = 13-3 – If Dallas keeps all of its key players healthy, the talent is there for a 13 win campaign.

Floor = 6-10 – Most of Dallas players are injury prone, so this accounts for all of them getting hurt.
Prediction = 11-5
            Call me a homer, but when I look at the Cowboys schedule, I don’t see any un-winnable games. Their two toughest non-division opponents (Denver and Green Bay) they face at home. They could very easily go 4-4 or 5-3 on the road, which means if they take care of business at home, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Week 1 Pick

            Here comes our second installment of full-season NFL picks. We’ll change up the format a little bit (mostly because I stunk during the second half of last season), so here are the changes you’ll see.

-         I won’t list the pick until the end of each game’s write-up (kind of stupid to spoil it. What was I thinking?)

-         Instead of ranking my confidence scores for each game, I will simply highlight five games that are among my Top-5 picks of the week. People searching for advice on contests similar to the Hilton’s Super Contest will still be able to see the five games I like the most, and I won’t have to expend brainpower deciding which game I feel the third or fourth shakiest about. My wife will vouch for me, the less brainpower I have to use, the better.

-         I’ll list the day, time, network the game is airing on, and what the over/under is for each match-up. Not sure why, but I feel like it.

           Now on to our season-opening contest. The rest of my week 1 picks will be published Friday or Saturday.
 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Wednesday, 8:35pm, NBC, O/U 45
            A couple of quick disclaimers before you read the following paragraph. Number one, I’m a diehard Cowboys fan. Number two, I despise the Giants. I will pull hard for Dallas to pull off a major upset tomorrow night, but there is one undeniable fact that can’t be ignored.

THE OPENING NIGHT NFL GAME IS THE QUINTESSENTIAL “NO FUCKING WAY GAME” FOR EVERY ROAD TEAM

            Ever since this annual event became the “Homecoming Game” for the defending Super Bowl champions, no road team has ever won the opening night tilt. Call me a pessimist, but Tony Romo and the Cowboys, whose failings in primetime are comical at this point, are not the team to buck this system. Dallas will score points, and it might even be close at the end, but there’s no way the Giants lose this game (unless you’re playing “Madden 13”. DeMarco Murray ran for 213 on the Giants in my coach career/franchise/whatever EA wants to call their team running mode, and the Dallas D stifled the Giants in a 44-10 beat down. This probably speaks more to my Madden ability than the talent level of the Cowboys, so let’s just move on). If I didn’t have a dog in the fight, I would wager anywhere from 25 to 50% of my gambling funds on the Giants.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

 

(if this isn’t as bold an attempt to use a blog to cast a reverse jinx on the Giants, than I don’t know what is. Go Cowboys!)

2012 NFC East Preview

4. Washington Redskins

 

2011 Record = 5-11, Last in NFC East

2012 Schedule = @ NO, @ STL, CIN, @ TB, ATL, MIN, @ NYG, @ PIT, CAR, BYE, PHI, @ DAL, NYG, BAL, @ CLE, @ PHI, DAL

Franchise Players = TE Fred Davis, T Trent Williams, LB Brian Orakpo, LB London Fletcher, LB Ryan Kerrigan

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Pierre Garcon, WR Josh Morgan, S Brandon Meriweather
Potential Impact Rookies = QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor) 1-2, QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 4-7

Outlook = Isn’t it a problem when the best two players a team’s draft class can’t be on the field at the same time? Mike Shanahan is bonkers.

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13
 

3. New York Giants

 

2011 Record = 9-7, First in NFC East, Won Super Bowl

2012 Schedule = DAL, TB, @ CAR, @ PHI, CLE, @ SF, WAS, @ DAL, PIT, @ CIN, BYE, GB, @ WAS, NO, @ ATL, @ BAL, PHI

Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Victor Cruz, WR Hakeem Nicks, G Chris Snee, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DE Justin Tuck, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, CB Prince Amukamara

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = TE Martellus Bennett, G Sean Locklear, DT Shaun Rogers
Potential Impact Rookies = RB David Wilson (Virginia Tech) 1-32, WR Reuben Randle (LSU) 2-32

Outlook = Are this years Giants the team that caught fire in the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl, or the squad that was actually outscored by it’s opponents during the regular season 400-394? They are a maddening team to predict (or even worse, gamble on) as they consistently play up or down to the level of their competition. They’ll have to play up to it much more this season than last, as they have one of the most treacherous road schedules in the league. By my count, only their Week 13 game at Washington appears to be the only easy road test, but that is thrown out the window given their history with the Redskins (remember that Washington thumped the Giants in New Jersey in Week 15 last season before the Giants caught fire the rest of the season). Throw in a Super Bowl hangover, and No Credentials will sign off on a sub-.500 season.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9
 

2. Dallas Cowboys

 

 

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in NFC East

2012 Schedule = @ NYG, @ SEA, TB, CHI, BYE, @ BAL, @ CAR, NYG, @ ATL, @ PHI, CLE, WAS, PHI, @ CIN, PIT, NO, @ WAS

Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, T Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, LB DeMarcus Ware, LB Sean Lee, LB Anthony Spencer

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Kyle Orton, FB Lawrence Vickers, LB Dan Connor, CB Brandon Carr
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Morris Claiborne (LSU) 1-6

Outlook = Dallas faces similar schedule issues to what the Giants will see, with the exception of dodging the 49ers and Packers. Kudos to Jerry Jones for addressing the secondary, which stood out like a sore thumb over the final month of 2011. Morris Claiborne has the tools to be an immediate shutdown corner, and Brandon Carr is versatile enough to play out wide or as the nickelback. If Mike Jenkins were to ever rediscover his 2009 form, Rex Ryan could have one of the top cornerback units in the league.

            The lone concern with the Cowboys on paper is their offensive line. Tyron Smith had an excellent rookie campaign at right tackle, but is now being moved to cover Tony Romo’s blindside (Doug Free, who previously succeeded at right tackle, was a disaster last season at left tackle. He’ll switch back to the right). How he adapts to this switch will ultimately determine the success of the 2012 Cowboys. If he plays at a Pro Bowl level, this will be a dominant offensive force on par with the Packers, Patriots, and Saints.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Philadelphia Eagles

 

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC East

2012 Schedule = @ CLE, BAL, @ ARI, NYG, @ PIT, DET, BYE, ATL, @ NO, DAL, @ WAS, CAR, @ DAL, @ TB, CIN, WAS, @ NYG

Franchise Players = QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Brent Celek, DE Jason Babin, DE Trent Cole, DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = S Oshiomogho Atogwe, P Mat McBriar
Potential Impact Rookies = DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State) 1-12, LB Mychal Kendricks (California) 2-14, DE Vinny Curry (Marshall) 2-27, QB Nick Foles (Arizona) 3-25

Outlook = Philadelphia was a disaster at the start of the 2011 season, but started to put the pieces together down the stretch. The defense was aggressively overhauled this past off-season. Asante Samuel was shipped to Atlanta (hopefully meaning that Asomugha doesn’t get shuffled between corner and safety. He’s the best cover corner in football, and should be left alone), and their first three draft picks should go along way in shoring up a defense that had no answer against the run. They were even able to draft some Mike Vick insurance (he’s a shoe in to miss at least four games) in the form of Nick Foles, who’s been a preseason sensation. They might be a year late, but this is the year that the Eagles will realize their potential.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
 

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West