2012 NFC South Preview

The NFC South is our first division where it's not out of the realm of possibility that any of the four teams could win.


4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2011 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South

2012 Schedule = CAR, @ NYG, @ DAL, WAS, BYE, KC, NO, @ MIN, @ OAK, SD, @ CAR, ATL, @ DEN, PHI, @ NO, STL, @ ATL

Franchise Players = QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, G Davin Joseph, DT Gerald McCoy

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Vincent Jackson, TE Dallas Clark, G Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright
Potential Impact Rookies = S Mark Barron (Alabama) 1-7, RB Doug Martin (Boise State) 1-31, OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska) 2-26

Outlook = There wasn’t a more aggressive team in free agency than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They added the best wide receiver on the open market, the best guard, and a solid corner. Don’t be surprised if their top-3 draft picks have the largest collective impact of any trio in the league. Unfortunately, the defense still stinks. Assuming Josh Freeman has a bounce back season, expect Tampa to be involved in several shoot-outs this season.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. New Orleans Saints

2011 Record = 13-3, First in NFC South, Lost in NFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = WAS, @ CAR, KC, @ GB, SD, BYE, @ TB, @ DEN, PHI, ATL, @ OAK, SF, @ ATL, @ NYG, TB, @ DAL, CAR

Franchise Players = QB Drew Brees, RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, G Jahri Evans, DE Will Smith

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Ben Grubbs, LB Curtis Lofton
Potential Impact Rookies = None

Outlook = We have no idea how a football team will do when their long-standing Super Bowl winning Head Coach is suspended, but I’m willing to bet that it has an impact (or at least Sean Payton and other coaches should hope it does. If New Orleans still wins 12 ball games this year, teams around the league will question how much they should pay head coach). Furthermore, their free agent acquisitions only covered up the loss of better players (Carl Nicks and Jonathan Vilma are both superior players when compared with Grubbs and Lofton). Throw in a first-place schedule, and this has all the makings of a high-scoring, highly scored upon .500 team.

Ceiling = 12-4 (that’s if a head coach doesn’t matter)

Floor = 4-12 (that’s if a head coach REALLY matters)
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Carolina Panthers

2011 Record = 6-10, Third in NFC South

2012 Schedule = @ TB, NO, NYG, @ ATL, SEA. BYE, DAL, @ CHI, @ WAS, DEN, TB, @ PHI, @ KC, ATL, @ SD, OAK, @ NO

Franchise Players = QB Cam Newton, WR Steve Smith, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, LB Jon Beason, CB Chris Gamble

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College) 1-9, G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) 2-8

Outlook = This year’s “trendy” team to make a leap into playoff contention, Carolina has a lot going for them. Cam Newton put up historic numbers in his rookie season, and should only improve going forward. Jon Beason, who was lost for the year early in 2011, returns fully healthy. Pairing him with rookie Luke Kuechly immediately should upgrade the Panther’s defense to a respectable level (they allowed the third most points in the NFC last season). I’m not going to go crazy, but I can see Carolina topping .500.

Ceiling = 11-5

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Atlanta Falcons

2011 Record = 10-6, Second in NFC South, Lost in NFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ KC, DEN, @ SD, CAR, @ WAS, OAK, BYE, @ PHI, DAL, @ NO, ARI, @ TB, NO, @ CAR, NYG, @ DET, TB

Franchise Players = QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones, TE Tony Gonzalez, G Justin Blalock, DE John Abraham, DE Ray Edwards
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = CB Asante Samuel
Potential Impact Rookies = C Peter Konz (Wisconsin) 2-23

Outlook = How you feel about the Atlanta Falcons ultimately boils down to how you feel about Matt Ryan becoming the focal point of the offense. Quite often last season the offense would fizzle when Atlanta forgot to hand the ball off to Michael Turner, which is concerning because Mike Smith has already stated that the Falcons will be a pass first team. Ryan has all the tools to succeed. If Julio Jones continues to develop, it could be argued that him and Roddy White are the best receiving tandem in the NFL. Tony Gonzalez can’t make as many big plays as he used to, but he’s still a reliable third down target. Ryan will also benefit from improvements on the other side of the ball. Asante Samuel is a massive upgrade for them (assuming his head is on straight), and is the best cornerback to wear a Falcons uniform since Ray Buchanan. Tighter coverage means more time for Abraham and Edwards to attack the quarterback. Better defense equals more opportunities for Ryan to make plays. If he thrives, Atlanta could pull out the #1 seed in the NFC (and then lose their first home playoff game, but we can talk about that in January).

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 13-3




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