2012 AFC South Preview

            Here’s the AFC South, aka “the worst division in football”.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 Record = 5-11, Third in AFC South

2012 Schedule = @ MIN, HOU, @ IND, CIN, CHI, BYE, @ OAK, @ GB, DET, IND, @ HOU, TEN, @ BUF, NYJ, @ MIA, NE, @ TEN

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, DT Tyson Alualu, LB Paul Posluszny

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross
Potential Impact Rookies = WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) 1-5, DE Andre Branch (Clemson) 2-6

Outlook = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne will be the starting quarterback, they took a punter in the third round of the draft, and there's a great chance their best player could hold out for a good portion of the regular season. Maybe we’ll write more about this team when they move to Los Angeles.

Ceiling = 5-11

Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Indianapolis Colts



2011 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South

2012 Schedule = @ CHI, MIN, JAC, BYE, GB, @ NYJ, CLE, @ TEN, MIA, @ JAC, @ NE, BUF, @ DET, TEN, @ HOU, @ KC, HOU

Franchise Players = WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney, DE Robert Mathis, S Antoine Bethea

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DT Cory Redding, S Tom Zhikowski
Potential Impact Rookies = Andrew Luck (Stanford) 1-1, TE Coby Fleener (Stanford) 2-2, TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 3-1

Outlook = Has there ever been a more under the radar number one draft pick than Andrew Luck? Thanks to all the hoopla over Robert Griffin III, Luck has quietly gone about his business in Indy. His stellar performance in his first preseason game seemed to remind folks that he, not Griffin, was the top player selected in the 2012 draft. If he’s anything close to the “best college prospect since Peyton Manning”, it’s not outrageous to think that this team can be competitive. Sure the offensive line still stinks, and the defense is still a work in progress, but there are still veterans from Manning’s best teams that will not let the team quit on their young quarterback. Don’t expect a surprising playoff run, but look for the Colts to begin sowing the seeds for a successful 2014 and beyond.

Ceiling = 8-8

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

2. Houston Texans



2011 Record = 10-6, First in AFC South, Lost in AFC Divisional Game
2012 Schedule = MIA, @ JAC, @ DEN, TEN, @ NYJ, GB, BAL, BYE, BUF, @ CHI, JAC, @ DET, @ TEN, @ NE, IND, MIN, @ IND

Franchise Players = QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, T Duane Brown, DE J.J. Watt, LB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan Joseph

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB Bradie James, S Alan Ball
Potential Impact Rookies = Whitney Mercilius (Illinois) 1-26

Outlook = Houston overcame a season ending injury to Matt Schaub and season-long hamstring troubles for Andre Johnson to win the franchise’s first division title and playoff game. The offensive line is strong enough that it doesn’t matter whether Arian Foster or Ben Tate is carrying the ball. With a healthy Johnson (which could be hard to ask for, he’s already had hamstring troubles in training camp) this offense could return to it’s 2009-10 level of production. My worries aren’t with the Texans offense, but their defense. Mario Williams left (for a ginormous amount of money) for the Buffalo Bills, leaving Houston without one of the ten best defensive players in the league. For Houston’s defense to maintain their high level of play from last season, J.J. Watt or Brian Cushing needs to fill that void. Color me a pessimist, but I don’t see that happening. 

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

1. Tennessee Titans



2011 Record = 9-7, Second in AFC South

2012 Schedule = NE, @ SD, DET, @ HOU, @ MIN, PIT, @ BUF, IND, CHI, @ MIA, BYE, @ JAC, HOU, @ IND, NYJ, @ GB, JAC

Franchise Players = QB Jake Locker, RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt, T Michael Roos, DE Derrick Morgan, S Michael Griffin

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Steven Hutchinson, LB Kamerion Wimbley
Potential Impact Rookies =WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) 1-20

Outlook = Tennessee has more question marks than your average team. Will Jake Locker take the reigns at QB and raise the Titans to another level? Will Chris Johnson return to the form he showed before he was paid a significant amount of money? Will Kenny Britt stay out of jail? If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, Tennessee could be a surprisingly tough opponent for teams like New England, Chicago, and Green Bay. I’ll buy in on Locker and Johnson, which should be enough for Tennessee to take a weak division.

Ceiling = 11-5

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7


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