Eagles @ Seahawks Pick

This crappy game doesn't warrant extended analysis, so here's your pick.

SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles
Seattle 21, Philadephia 20
Confidence Score = 1

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (11/25-11/27)

10. Women Uses Pepper Spray on Fellow Shoppers During Black Friday
            Because you know, it’s that important to get Kinect for your Xbox 360.

9. LSU Demolishes Arkansas

            I hope you like field goal matches, because that’s what we’re more than likely going to get when LSU has to play Alabama again in the BCS Championship Game.

8. Matt Leinart Breaks Collarbone, Texans Win Anyway

            I’m starting to think Houston doesn’t need a quarterback to win the AFC South. Not good news for Andre Johnson fantasy owners, but good news for people planning on betting against the Texans in the first round of the playoffs.

7. Barcelona’s 27-Game Win Streak Ends

            This was noteworthy for me because I was under the impression that Lionel Messi only was on losing teams in World Cup matches.

6. Stevie Johnson Blows Game and Keeps No Credentials 3-Team Teaser Alive

            A 15-yard penalty for excessive celebration (that by the way, should’ve counted as five extra fantasy points, because the clever mocking of Plaxico Burress was fantastic), followed by dropping a pass while Buffalo was attempting to drive for the win were the two blunders for a player who after dropping a touchdown pass against the Steelers last season, asked God on Twitter what he did to Him. Just in case you were curious, God doesn’t have a Twitter account, so he was unable to respond.

5. UNLV Upsets North Carolina

            I was too busy getting my ass kicked in Scrabble to watch this game live, but kudos to the Rebels for getting to 7-0 against the pres-season favorite to win the NCAA title.

4. Sofia is Finally Found, “The Walking Dead” Can Move On

(EDITORS NOTE: If you have the mid-season finale on DVR, skip to number three to not have the show ruined for you)

            I didn’t care if Sofia was found dead, alive, or as a walker, but I needed this storyline to end. The writers of the show had already wasted five episodes on the search for her. It was fitting that she was in Hershel’s barn the entire time the group was out searching. In a way, it was a nod to all of the time wasted by viewers on this plotline.

(EDITORS NOTE: If you don’t watch “The Walking Dead”, none of that made sense to you. In related news, I don’t care)

3. Patriots Push Eagles to Edge of a Cliff

            Thanks to the efforts of Tom Brady and Wes Welker, Eagles fans got to debut the “Fire Andy!” chant. They probably should’ve busted that out three weeks ago.

2. The NBA is Back

            Is there still a bad taste in the mouths of fans after the ridiculous lockout cost two months of the NBA season? Sure, but here’s a list of all the great things to look forward to now that games are set to begin.

“The Big 2 Featuring Chris Bosh”, season 2

Will the Magic Trade Dwight Howard? (oh wait, that’s actually something to dread. ESPN will talk about this incessantly for weeks on end)
Does Kobe and/or the Celtics’ Big 3 Have One More Year Left in the Tank?
Dirk and the Mavericks Defending the Title
Durant and Westbrook Battling for Shots in OKC
DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, and Jimmer Fredette Being on the Same NBA Roster

1. Broncos, God’s QB Win in OT in San Diego      

            I saw a guy yesterday wearing a Broncos hat, so naturally I asked him about Tim Tebow. The man had absolutely no faith in him, and if anything, regretted the winning streak the Broncos have gone on because it has destroyed their chances at getting a top quarterback prospect. Don’t be surprised if locusts swarm this man’s home after Tebow’s latest miracle victory in overtime over the pathetic Chargers.

Week 12 NFL Picks

RAMS (-3) over Cardinals

            I just bet $5 on the 39.5 under, so get your life savings wagered on the over ASAP.

St. Louis 17, Arizona 10

Confidence Score = 6

JETS (-9.5) over Bills

            Just when things were starting to get worse in Buffalo, Fred Jackson was lost for the season.

New York 38, Buffalo 17

Confidence Score = 13

BENGALS (-7) over Browns

            It’s plausible that Cincinnati will over look Cleveland, but a strong second half from the Bengals will be enough to cover the spread.

Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 10

Confidence Score = 7

Texans (-6.5) over JAGUARS

            Matt Leinart won’t look bad in Jacksonville, which is easy to do when he probably won’t throw the ball more than 15 times.

Houston 20, Jacksonville 7

Confidence Score = 10

COLTS (+3.5) over Panthers

            The Colts have a two-game lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, which means they can win this week so they don’t go 0-16.

Indianapolis 21, Carolina 20

Confidence Score = 2

TITANS (-3.5) over Buccaneers

            People are a little too excited about Tampa after their performance in Green Bay last week.

Tennessee 23, Tampa Bay 16

Confidence Score = 9

FALCONS (-9.5) over Vikings

            No Adrian Peterson equals too much Great White Hope (aka Toby Gerhart). That’s not a good thing.

Atlanta 34, Minnesota 10

Confidence Score = 12

Bears (+4) over RAIDERS

            Strangest game of the week to pick. Ultimately, I think Chicago’s defense will shut down Oakland.

Chicago 14, Oakland 6

Confidence Score = 1

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins

            I’m way to confident in a team quarterbacked by Tavaris Jackson, but I don’t care.

Seattle 24, Washington 10

Confidence Score = 15

Patriots (-3.5) over EAGLES

            I have a feeling that Bill Belichick will enjoy driving a stake through the heart of the Eagle’s 2011 season.

New England 34, Philadelphia 21

Confidence Score = 11

Broncos (+6) over CHARGERS

            God hates the Chargers. God loves his quarterback. I rest my case.

Denver 24, San Diego 23

Confidence Score = 4

Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS

            Pittsburgh could run no offensive plays and probably still win this game by double digits.

Pittsburgh 41, Kansas City 3

Confidence Score = 14

Giants (+7.5) over SAINTS

            Call me naïve, but I think this line is 4.5 points too high.

New Orleans 31, New York 28

Confidence Score = 3

Thursday Picks = 1-2 (I'm 1-4 picking Thursday games. Weird)
Last Week Picks = 7-6-1
LW Top-5 = 3-2
Season Picks = 82-70-8
S Top-5 = 28-25-2

No Credentials Mail Bag 11/26/11

As always, these may or may not be actual questions from real or fake readers.

Should I start looking for apartments in Washington D.C. now, or can I wait a little bit? – Peyton M., Indianapolis, IN

            I’d probably start scoping neighborhoods out, but don’t go too crazy yet. There’s still a few other places you could end up next season. Here is No Credentials official rankings of the teams that Manning will most likely be under center for in week 1 of the 2012 season.

1.      Redskins

2.      49ers

3.      Seahawks

4.      Dolphins

5.      Colts

Would you be “in the mood” after shooting 25 zombies in the head? – Charlotte, Allagash, ME

            This question was raised after a scene in “The Walking Dead” last week when Andrea guns down a bunch of walkers, and then immediately follows that up by grabbing Shane’s crotch. I’m not sure where I stand on this personally, although I do feel I speak for a large percentage of the male population by saying I wish I could’ve spent more time with a girl like Andrea in high school (not that I would’ve been able to capitilize on that sort of situation  ty ty tf ftin those days, but that was probably T.M.I).

On a scale of 1-10, how badly did Denver handle Kyle Orton? – Arvada, CO

            I don’t think 10 is high enough of a number. Let’s review two key blunders that led to Denver getting absoleutly nothing for Orton.

1.      Not realizing that there team sucked and plugging in Tebow from Day 1 – You had to be on pretty good drugs to think that Kyle Orton was going to lead this team to the playoffs. Orton can play well with a strong supporting cast, but he isn’t going to carry a team on his back. Miami was willing to fork over at least a second round pick for him before the start of the season. Denver needed to sell high at this point and let (Jesus) Tebow play quarterback.

2.      Not getting at least something for Orton when Tebow was named the starter – Denver had one week to move Orton before the trade deadline. They wouldn’t of gotten a second round pick at this point, but wouldn’t a fourth round pick be better than nothing? As desperate as some teams are at the quarterback position, I find it hard to believe that no one would take a flier on Orton.

Can you please tell Jack Edwards and Andy Brickley to shut the hell up? You’d swear to God that these Bruins are the 2011 NHL version of the 1927 Yankees. – Drew E., Freeport, ME

            This question hit my inbox shortly after the end of the Bruins home game against the Blue Jackets a week ago, when Brickley went out of his way to call Columbus a “tough opponent”. Apparently Brickley doesn’t take in too much hockey outside of Boston, because Columbus is the worst team in the NHL. I understand that they are local broadcasters, but Edwards and Brickley need to show some perspective when they are televising these games. Take a page out of Don Orsillo and Remdawg’s playbook and actually present some semblance of balanced coverage.

Is it weird that Brian (the dog from Family Guy) dates chicks, or is it weirder that chicks date Brian? Megan L., Silver Lake, NH

            The upgrade from dating a human female as opposed to a female dog is much more signicant than going from a human male to a male dog (some ladies out there would probably argue that male dogs are cleaner), so the clear answer is that it is weirder that women date Brian.

The poor Buffalo Bills are crumbling. What is the best thing to compare their collapse to? Jason C., Lake George, NY

            I never watched it, but I remember seeing commercials on ABC for a drama where Geena Davis was the President. Readers correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe it was called “Commander in Chief.” The show appeared to be fairly popular when it first aired (let me define popular for a second by saying that I remember it was on the cover of “TV Guide” once or twice). Inexplicably, the head writer of the show left during the middle of the season, the quality of the episodes went down the toilet, and it was cancelled after the first season. There’s the best analogy for your 2011 Buffalo Bills.

Why is it news that a college in Utah decided that it was stupid to join the Big East? Isn’t that just common sense prevailing? Ted J., Bannockburn, IL

            Welcome to the sad state of affairs in the NCAA, where a team based out of the mountain time zone flirted with joining a league of schools on the east coast.

Which event did you care less about this past weekend, the MLS championship or the President’s Cup? – Dave, Williston, VT

             I’ll vote for the President’s Cup, since at first I thought it was a boating event instead of a golf competition.

I have thought with effort (not the "I'm on a long drive thinking, this is a relaxing shower thinking, or the after glow thinking). I have spent hours numbering in excess in search of knowing exactly what it would be like to be "The Best" at something. Anything. Wrench (EDITORS NOTE: Ryan nicknamed me “Wrench” a long time ago. Perhaps one day I’ll open this space up for him to explain that name, because I’m sure you read that and said, “Huh?”), as you are a sports fan and I am not, I put it to you like this. What did it feel like when Tiger Woods was hammering golf balls (not chicks and Cadillac’s) and he was the best? Do you fear that it will get taken away? Do you smile because you have written history? Then I think again, is it more simple, easier, more comfortable being average? – Ryan B., Kearsarge, NH

            Another multi-layered question out of the lovely town of Kearsarge, so I’ll address each part in bullets.

-         Not to make it sound to simple, but Tiger Woods must’ve been feeling pretty damn good about himself in his prime. Knowing you have the ability to contend for victory every week is the best thing you can ask for as a professional athlete.

-         Ultimately, the amount of fear a top athlete (or top anything for that matter) is what determines how long a person stays at the top of their profession. Michael Jordan is the best example of this. As Jordan aged, he no longer had the explosiveness he had in his youth, making it more difficult every year to drive to the basket. His competitiveness wouldn’t let his body fail him, and Jordan improved other aspects of his game (most notably, a post-up game and an unguardable 15-foot fade-away). It was the fear of being anything less than the best that drove Jordan to hone his craft.

-         I suppose you’re bothered less if you’re average, but even if whatever you’re best talent is won’t make you a celebrity, isn’t it good to hone your strengths? Whether it’s painting houses, selling cars, cooking pastries, writing poetry, whatever. Sorry to get all inspirational here, but it’s my belief that everyone has at least something to offer that’s above average.

Thanksgiving NFL Picks

Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Anytime you can get the Packers at anything under seven points, jump on it.

Green Bay 41, Detroit 24
Confidence Score = 16

COWBOYS (-7) over Dolphins
I've been riding the Dolphins for a few weeks now (ever since they almost screwed up a three-team teaser for me), but it's asking a lot for them to go into Dallas on three days rest. Expect Matt Moore to fall back to Earth Thursday afternoon.

Dallas 28, Miami 13
Confidence Score = 8

49ers (+3) over RAVENS
I wish I could have gotten the 49ers at +5 (which is where this game opened), but I'll stick with them for this column. Logically, you could put both teams into a teaser, as this game should be decided by less than seven points.

San Francisco 17, Baltimore 16
Confidence Score = 5


Have a happy Thanksgiving.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (11/18-11/20)

10. Sidney Crosby Returns With a Vengeance

            Crosby netted a goal and two assists in his first NHL game in 10 months. Even the most avid fans of the Washington Capitals would have to admit that deep down, they are happy that Sid the Kid is back. For the sake of the sport, it’s important that its best player is back.

9. Bears Win, But Lose Jay Cutler

            Chicago has the defense to hold the fort until Cutler returns (the earliest it looks like Cutler will return is the first week of the playoffs), but it’s going to be real tough sledding for Chicago to hang on to a wildcard spot in the NFC.

8. Cowboys Need Overtime to Defeat Redskins

            As pathetic as their play was at times, I guess a win is still a win. Dallas faces suddenly resurgent Miami on Thanksgiving.

7. Eagles Stay Alive (Barely), Win in New York

            It took ten games, but we finally saw the Eagles defense everyone was expecting to see when they made all of their additions. There’s enough talent on that side of the ball to carry them, even if Vince Young is under center.

6. Oklahoma State Loses

5. Oregon Loses
4. Oklahoma Loses
            I wasn’t happy to see Oklahoma St. lose (with the school dealing with the tragic death of their women’s basketball coach and an assistant in a plane crash), but all three of these losses add up to BCS mayhem (cue the All State guy).

3. Dan Henderson Survives UFC 139, Even Wins Against Rua

            A fantastic night of fights was capped off by what Dana White called the UFC’s “Ali-Frazier III”.

2. Lee Corso is the Man

            College football fans sure got a surprise during the end of ESPN’s “College Game Day” this morning. Corso has fired weapons during a live broadcast before, but this was his first career f-bomb on live television. Hopefully he doesn’t get canned over it.

1. Tony Stewart Wins Closest Championship Battle in NASCAR History

            I’ve been watching NASCAR for a long time, and I can’t recall a better performance from start to finish that what we saw from Tony Stewart Sunday. He went to the back twice due to repairs on the front bumper of his car. Stewart passed 116 cars, which unless the track is Daytona or Talladega, is an incredible feat. Even more impressive, his team outwitted Carl Edwards to get out in front for the last green flag run (that actually happened on accident, due to a foolish gamble on fuel mileage by Stewart that only worked because of a caution that came out right after he pitted). Edwards did everything he could (starting on the pole, leading the most laps), but a second place finish wasn’t enough. There isn’t really any other superlatives you can use to describe the battle between Stewart and Edwards during The Chase, so I’ll conclude this analysis with a foolish paragraph written by some idiot blogger before the 10 race playoffs. Please note that this guy ranked both Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart together in his preview piece.

11. Ryan Newman, #39 Army Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 24

10. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 6)
            These two guys should probably share the driver of the year award, as the fact that they were able to pilot their mediocre race teams into the Chase is remarkable. With the exception of the second Chase race at Loudon (where Newman and Stewart finished 1-2), expect both drivers to struggle for top-15s.

            Here’s another excerpt from this same writer's mailbag he did after the first race of the Chase.

            In your Chase Preview you said Tony Stewart would be lucky to run in the top-15 during the final ten races. He went out and won the first race at Chicago. Defend yourself. – Nicole, Augusta, GA
            To the uninformed reader that it may have looked like No Credentials was way off, but the bottom line is a driver who said himself he had no business being in The Chase stole a gas mileage race. He’ll look good in New Hampshire again this week, but it will be all down hill from there. Remember this paragraph when Stewart is hoisting the trophy in November.

            Oh wait, I was the dolt that wrote those two paragraphs! Just more proof that this blog is called No Credentials for a reason.

Week 11 NFL Picks

            I’m considering sitting out this week from real wagers for fear that God will punish me for picking against His QB. Even more discouraging, the Colts aren’t playing.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Bills

            It took longer than expected, but the league has figured out the 2011 Buffalo Bills.

Miami 20, Buffalo 16

Confidence Score = 12

RAVENS (-7) over Bengals

            I want to pick the Bengals, but losing cornerback Leon Hall is a devastating blow to their defense.

Baltimore 21, Cincinnati 10

Confidence Score = 4

Jaguars (+1) over BROWNS

            THE UNWATCHABLE GAME OF THE WEEK, SPONSORED BY NBC’S “The Playboy Club”

Jacksonville 10, Cleveland 7

Confidence Score = 11

VIKINGS (+1) over Raiders

            Oakland = overvalued after their win against the bumbling Chargers. Vikings = undervalued after getting shellacked by the Packers on national television. I’ve got a strange amount of confidence in this pick, which probably means you should all bet your life savings on the Raiders.

Minnesota 24, Oakland 20

Confidence Score = 14

Panthers (+7) over LIONS

            I can honestly say that I don’t know what to do with either of these teams. With that said, we’ll play it safe and take the points.

Detroit 27, Carolina 24

Confidence Score = 3

PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers

            Here’s the team to anchor your two or three-team teaser this week.

Green Bay 38, Tampa Bay 21

Confidence Score = 9

Cowboys (-7) over REDSKINS

            Romo is healthy. DeMarco Murray is a machine. Washington can’t figure out which crappy quarterback they want to play. If a less accident-prone player quarterbacked the Cowboys, this would be my top pick of the week.

Cowboys 23, Washington 10

Confidence Score = 13

49ERS (-9.5) over Cardinals

            A Patrick Peterson punt return is the only threat to the 49ers covering this week.

San Francisco 24, Arizona 3

Confidence Score = 16

Seahawks (+3) over RAMS

            I’m digging the “Beast Mode” eye black being worn by Seahawks runningback Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle 16, St. Louis 10

Confidence Score = 5

Titans (+6) over FALCONS

            Chris Johnson coming back from the dead combined with Atlanta trying to rebound from gift wrapping a win for New Orleans makes this my upset special of the week.

Tennessee 28, Atlanta 27

Confidence Score = 10

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers

            I’ve been picking against the Bears all year, and they’ve been consistently winning. I’ve been picking San Diego all year, and they’ve been consistently losing. Worlds are colliding at Soldier Field.

Chicago 17, San Diego 10

Confidence Score = 15

Eagles (+5) over GIANTS
            I think Philadelphia’s defense will keep this one close. That and I need to lose an Eagles pick one more time before giving up on them for good.

New York 20, Philadelphia 17

Confidence Score = 6

PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs

            Here’s the other team to anchor a two or three-team teaser.

New England 37, Kansas City 17

Confidence Score = 7

Thursday Pick = 0-1 (don’t bet against God and his quarterback)

Last Week = 7-9
LW Top-5 = 3-2
Season = 75-64-7
S Top-5 = 25-23-2

Blowing Up the NBA, Part 1

          I’m sick of the NBA Lockout. I hate the owners for using their leverage to try to hammer the players without little regard for whether or not there is a season this year. I’m sick of the players, who instead of continuing to negotiate after finally getting a fair offer from the owners, decided to disband the players union and take their fight to court. Neither side has come out smelling like roses.
          All the negativity going on with professional basketball has led No Credentials to find a way to have some fun with the NBA. Naturally this resulted in me going into “uber-nerd” mode. I’ve decided to do a fantasy draft for a “new” NBA. Here is how it will work.

1.      I hope none of you are fans of the Raptors, Bobcats, Kings, Grizzlies, Hornets, or Timberwolves, because those teams no longer exist in the No Credentials version of the NBA. It’s now a 24-team league with two 12-team conferences.

    
      2.      Each team is allowed to designate one player from their 2010-11 roster as it’s “keeper”.  

3.      The rest of each team’s roster will be determined in a 15 round draft. Round 1 will be the round each team picks its keeper player. The draft order will be determined by which franchises I deem most important to the NBA (in other words, in a perfect world, the teams the NBA would most benefit from if they are competitive. This mostly has to do with size of the local market, passion of the fan-base, ect.).

4.      Each team will have to stay below a $65 million salary cap. Salaries for each player picked from rounds 1-5 will be based on what is listed as their 2011-12 cap number on ESPN.com. Rounds 6-7 player salaries will be their 2011-12 number or $5 million (whichever is less). Round 8 will be the 2011-12 number or $2.5 million (whichever is less). Rounds 9-10 will be the 2011-12 number or $1 million (whichever is less). Rounds 11-15 will be $500 thousand.

5.      Each club must have a minimum of 12 players on its roster. If a club has spent too much of it’s cap on it’s top-5 picks, it’s limit for rounds 6-10 will be reduced.

            Without further ado, here’s each team’s keeper player for the 2011-12 NBA (as conceived in the delusional mind of No Credentials).

1-1.            Los Angeles Lakers – Kobe Bryant, SG = $25 million – Is he a little long in the tooth? Sure, but Kobe is still one of the most valuable players in the league, and has been the face of the Lakers for years. It would be a slap in the face if L.A. kept Gasol over Bryant.

1-2.            New York Knicks – Carmelo Anthony, SF = $19 million – Gets the nod over Stoudemire because of his more stable health. Hopefully for his sake we’ll build a better rotation around him than what the Knicks came up with last season.

1-3.            Boston Celtics – Rajon Rondo, PG = $10 million – It really kills me to use the Celtics keeper on a point guard who can’t shoot, but his salary combined with his age make him the clear choice over any of the Big 3.

1-4.            Chicago Bulls – Derrick Rose, PG = $7 million – Not that there was really any doubt here, but Rose has one more year on his rookie contract, which gives Chicago plenty of flexibility for the rest of this fake draft.

1-5.            Dallas Mavericks – Dirk Nowitzki, PF = $19 million – The reigning king of the NBA, Dirk probably wouldn’t mind if No Credentials drafts the rest of the 2010-11 Mavericks onto this club.

1-6.            Phoenix Suns – Steve Nash, PG = $12 million – The Suns roster is so barren in terms of young talent that a 37-year old point guard is the clear choice as the clubs lone keeper. We probably won’t see another Sun come off the board until the fourth round.

1-7.            Miami Heat – Lebron James, SF = $16 million – James is three years younger than Wade, plus he doesn’t come with all the injury concerns. Wade probably won’t make it back to Miami in the second round, but that may not be a bad thing.

1-8.            Washington Wizards – John Wall, PG = $6 million – It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Wall follows the same development pattern as Derrick Rose.

1-9.            Portland Trail Blazers – LaMarcus Aldridge, PF = $13 million – Aldridge showed in the second half last season that he can carry a team into the playoffs.

1-10.        Philadelphia 76ers – Andre Iguodala, SF = $14 million – I hate this keeper, but I’m not sure if Evan Turner will ever develop into a franchise player.  

1-11.        San Antonio Spurs – Tim Duncan, PF = $19 million – Keeping Duncan in this scenario doesn’t make much sense in terms of basketball (Duncan is in decline, which is what most athletes are at age 35), but you could argue that Duncan is the face of the Spurs as much (if not more) than Kobe is the face of the Lakers.

1-12.        Golden State Warriors – Stephen Curry, PG = $3 million – The fatal flaw of the Warriors the past two years is the inability of Curry and Monte Ellis to guard opposing backcourts (one of them always gets matched up against a bigger shooting guard and gets manhandled). We’ll fix that problem with this draft.

1-13.        Detroit Pistons – Greg Monroe, C = $3 million – Joe Dumars called and asked if he could forfeit his rights to keep a player and just redraft the entire team, but I told him it wasn’t allowed.

1-14.        Denver Nuggets – Danilo Gallinari, SF = $4 million – Gallinari is a homeless man’s Dirk Nowitzki who could develop into a poor man’s Dirk Nowitzki.

1-15.        Orlando Magic – Dwight Howard, C = $18 million – Even with mid-round picks, I’m guaranteeing I build a better team around Dwight than the Magic have. Still won’t be good enough to keep him from fleeing to Los Angeles though.

1-16.        Los Angeles Clippers – Blake Griffin, PF = $6 million – Here’s video evidence as to why the Blake-show is the clear choice.

1-17.        Cleveland Cavaliers – Kyrie Irving, PG = $5 million – Irving is the only rookie to be kept (remember that the Timberwolves don’t exist anymore in this fake league), which proves once again how terrible the 2011 draft class was.

1-18.        Utah Jazz – Paul Millsap, PF = $8 million – Millsap is 26 years old and makes just over $8 million per year. Al Jefferson is 26 and makes $14 million. We’ll keep Millsap.

1-19.        Houston Rockers – Kevin Martin, SG = $12 million – No club has done a better job of acquiring interesting parts that add up to nothing better than the Houston Rockets.

1-20.        New Jersey Nets – Deron Williams, PG = $16 million – I forgot that Kris Humphries played basketball until I opened up the Nets roster to see what William’s 2012 salary is.

1-21.        Indiana Pacers – Darren Collison, PG = $1 million – You’re not winning a championship with Danny Granger as your best player, so we’ll save $11 million for young prospects.

1-22.        Atlanta Hawks – Josh Smith, SF = $12 million – He can’t shoot, but Smith is a versatile defensive player that can anchor any team on that end of the floor.

1-23.        Oklahoma City Thunder – Kevin Durant, SF = $14 million – We’re not keeping him for his flag football skills.

1-24.        Milwaukee Bucks – Andrew Bogut, C = $12 million – This is another team that probably would’ve liked to pass on a keeper. Bogut gets the nod over Brandon Jennings because he’s seven feet tall, and also because Jennings can’t pass up a shot (kind of a problem when you play point guard).

Broncos-Jets Pick

Jets (-6.5) over BRONCOS

Strange things are happening in Denver, but strange things weren't enough to prevent Denver from getting blown out by Detroit at home. I'd be more confident in the Jets, but playing Sunday night and then having to fly across the country within four days is the only reason this game isn't in my Top 5.

New York 24, Denver 7
Confidence Score = 8

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (11/11-11/13)

10. Miami Marlins Debut Worst Baseball Uniforms in the History of Man
            When I first read this story, I thought the Marlins had a contest to design the jerseys that only kids eight years and under could participate in.

9. Wilson Ramos Found Unharmed in Venezuela

            I’m a fairly oblivious person, so I thought kidnapping only still happened in movies and on television. Happy to see Ramos is safe, as he is a key part of the Nationals future.

8. Jonathan Papelbon Bolts Boston, Joins Phillies

            Sadly, another of my favorite Red Sox players is leaving. The time is right though, as the Phillies inked Paps for $50 million. Boston was wise to not match and save some cash for Jacoby Ellsbury.

7. North Carolina Beats Michigan St. On a Boat

            Can’t say that I care about college basketball in November, but this story gives me an (weak) excuse to post the following video.

6. Junior dos Santos Rocks Cain Velasquez

            The fight itself is noteworthy, but the greater significance is that the event was the first to air in primetime on network television. UFC and FOX made a mistake only showing one fight (the appeal of UFC is that even if the main event sucks, there’s four other fights that have the potential of being good), but expect them to get it right next time.

5. Colts Take Two Game Lead in “Suck For Luck” Sweepstakes

            With Sunday’s outcomes in Miami, Cleveland, and Indianapolis, we’re one step closer to the doomsday scenario of Peyton Manning being on the trading block.

4. 49ers Hold Off Giants

            I’m not ready to buy into the 49ers as a viable Super Bowl contender, but they did go a long way in securing a first round bye in the NFC with their win over the Giants.

3. Patriots Quiet Critics, Take Control of AFC East

            Is it just me, or has Rob Gronkowski stepped it up a notch ever since he appeared in a Twitter picture with a porn star?

2. God’s QB Completes Two Passes, Broncos Win Anyway

            We can officially say that there is a higher power at work for the Broncos after they won in Kansas City with Tom Osbourne’s playbook he used for the 1994 Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

1. Jimmie Johnson Officially Can’t Win Sixth Sprint Cup

            Most gear-heads are excited about the brilliant battle for the title between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart. I am too, but I’m really over the moon about Johnson (and his douche bag crew chief Chad Knaus) not winning another championship.

Week 10 NFL Picks

            San Diego ripped my heart out Thursday (is it wrong of me to wish that the Penn State situation would’ve happened in San Diego instead so Norv Turner could get canned? Apparently that’s what it’s going to take to get rid of Norv. The guy has wasted more talent over the past five years than the director of “Oceans 12”), so I’m not offering any analysis with my picks. Feel free to bet the opposite this week.

BENGALS (+4) over Steelers

Confidence Score = 4

Broncos (+3) over CHIEFS
Confidence Score = 2

Jaguars (-3) over COLTS

Confidence Score = 13

COWBOYS (-5.5) over Bills

Confidence Score = 14

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Texans

Confidence Score = 7

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Titans

Confidence Score = 15

DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins

Confidence Score = 12

FALCONS (Pick ‘Em) over Saints

Confidence Score = 3

Rams (+2.5) over BROWNS

Confidence Score = 9

EAGLES (-14) over Cardinals

Confidence Score = 6

Ravens (-7) over SEAHAWKS

Confidence Score = 8

Lions (+3) over BEARS

Confidence Score = 1

49ERS (-3.5) over Giants

Confidence Score = 11

Patriots (+1.5) over JETS

Confidence Score = 10

PACKERS (-13) over Vikings

Confidence Score = 5

Thursday Pick = 0-1 (stupid Chargers)
Last Week = 9-5
LW Top 5 = 2-3
Season = 68-55-7
S Top-5 = 22-21-2

NFL Mid-Season Power Poll

The Andrew Luck Division
 

32. Indianapolis Colts

Season Record = 0-9
Against the Spread = 2-7
Why They Are My Second Favorite Team This Year = I’ve wagered against Indianapolis every week since I opened my Sportsbook account. Amazingly enough, I haven’t been arrested for stealing yet.
Reason For Optimism = Assuming Peyton Manning returns to full health after the season, the Colts are currently staring at the possibility of owning the rights of two franchise quarterbacks. Obtaining Luck would bring a larger compensation package, but some team would still pony up for Manning. A team that thinks it’s a quarterback away from winning a Super Bowl (example: the 49ers) would have to consider shipping two number ones for the rights to Peyton.
Best Case Scenario the Rest of the Way = Indianapolis clinches the number one pick with two weeks to go, and then is able to showcase Manning, proving to the rest of the league that he is healthy.
 

31. St. Louis Rams

Season Record = 1-7
Against the Spread = 1-7
Bradford or Luck? = Andrew Luck is the better long-term prospect, but unfortunately for St. Louis the economics of the league would force them to hold on to Bradford. Trading their 2010 first overall selection would create a massive penalty on their cap for the next four years, limiting their ability to put a team around Luck. If the Rams end up with the top spot, expect wild trade rumors involving a third of the league right up until the NFL Draft.
Best Case Scenario = St. Louis has a soft schedule in the second half, which will enable them to rebuild the confidence of Sam Bradford. Don’t be surprised if they go 5-3 down the stretch.  
 

30. Miami Dolphins

Season Record = 1-7
Against the Spread = 2-6
Why Are They Winning? = No team was executing the “Suck for Luck” strategy better than Miami before they shellacked Kansas City last week. Someone upstairs needs to get on the coaches for putting in too good of a game plan, and the players for trying to hard. Will anyone remember that Miami won three games in 2011 if they miss out on a franchise quarterback for the next decade?
Reason for Optimism = Reggie Bush has looked like a legitimate NFL runningback, and not just a third-down option, the past two weeks. He hasn’t had much work during his NFL career, so he could be a late-bloomer.
Best Case Scenario = Miami loses the rest of their games, and Peyton Manning leads the Colts to two meaningless wins in December.
 

The Quincy Carter Division

 

29. Arizona Cardinals

Season Record = 2-6
Against the Spread = 3-4-1
Reason for Optimism = Rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is the real deal. He’s been the most exciting rookie this season not named Cam Newton.
Reason for Depression = I defended Kevin Kolb during the first No Credentials Power Poll, but it’s getting harder and harder to each passing week. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, Arizona gave him a huge extension before he had spent two weeks with the organization.
Best Case Scenario = Getting Kolb through the rest of the year uninjured so he can get a full slate of off-season activities before the 2012 season.
 

28. Seattle Seahawks

Season Record = 2-6
Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Reason for Optimism = Let’s see…barring unexpected developments they won’t get Andrew Luck…horrendous collection of offensive talent (with the exceptions of Russell Okung and Sidney Rice)… I guess we’ll just have to point to their awesome home-field advantage. And the fact that the season is over for them in two months.
Plan B? = It’s not out of the realm of possibility that former USC Head Coach Pete Carroll could end up with Matt Barkley in next years draft. For a team with very few assets to move (making it unlikely they could swoop in to get Luck or Manning), getting Barkley would be the most convenient way to fill the quarterback position and maintain draft picks to fill the rest of the holes on the roster.
Important Info For Gamblers = Seattle is always frisky in their home stadium. Be very careful including any team in a two or three-team teaser if they are playing in the Pacific Northwest.
 

27. Cleveland Browns

Season Record = 3-5
Against the Spread = 2-4-2
Holy Madden Curse Batman! = The Madden Curse usually takes care of its business by breaking bones or decreasing a player’s ability. This year, The Madden Curse stepped it up a notch by not only straining Peyton Hillis’ hamstring, but also turning him into a clubhouse cancer. It reminds me of the time The League of Shadows attempted to destroy Gotham City through economics in “Batman Begins.”
 

26. Washington Redskins

Season Record = 3-5
Against the Spread = 3-5
Vindication For No Credentials = I predicted before the season that Washington would be one of the worst teams in the league, but a funny thing happened at the beginning of the year. They started 3-1. Fortunately, a panic benching of Rex Grossman after a loss to the Eagles has led to a great run of futility by John Beck.
No Light at the End of the Tunnel = Looking at the schedule, the only two winnable home games for the Redskins are against Dallas (who Washington almost always beats at home, even during the Cowboys dynasty in the ‘90s) and Minnesota in Week 16. I’m comfortable saying that there is a 60% chance Washington goes winless the rest of the year.
 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars

Season Record = 2-6
Against the Spread = 3-4-1
Rough Slate = Like the rest of the AFC South, the schedule didn’t do Jacksonville any favors this year. They did well to win two of their first eight. The Jaguars play hard, but inexperience at the quarterback position has set them back.
Best Case Scenario = Blaine Gabbert has been the only rookie quarterback that has actually looked like a rookie quarterback this year. Two games against the Colts potentially can give Gabbert something to build on going into 2012.
 

God’s Team Division

 

24. Denver Broncos

Season Record = 3-5
Against the Spread = 3-5
Scared to Type = Logic and reason no longer apply to the Denver Broncos now that Tim Tebow is under center. I’m not even going to pretend I have any clue how the rest of their season is going to turn out.
 

Good Bad Teams Division

 

23. Carolina Panthers

Season Record = 2-6
Against the Spread = 5-2-1
The Franchise = Cam Newton has proven you, every NFL analyst, and me wrong. His ability to adapt to the NFL game has been remarkable. Don’t let the record fool you. This is a club that has only been outscored by 20 points for the entire season, and only one of their six losses was by more than seven points.
Name a WR Happier Than Steve Smith = You can’t. The guy finally has a big-time quarterback throwing him the ball. Smith’s production with Jake Delhomme over the last decade is amazing considering that his quarterback was Jake Delhomme. Now that Smith is paired with Newton, expect him to finish out his career in Carolina on a high note.
Best Case Scenario = Going 4-4 the rest of the way, and using a top-12 draft pick to help shore up the offensive line next April.
 

22. Minnesota Vikings

Season Record = 2-6
Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Ponder This = ESPN and No Credentials openly mocked Christian Ponder getting taken at 14 during last years draft. While the sample size is small, Ponder has silenced some critics during his first two starts. He appears to be competent enough to take advantage of defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop Adrian Peterson.
 

21. Kansas City Chiefs

Season Record = 4-4
Against the Spread = 5-3
Oops! = I should move them down at least three spots after Miami went into their building and blew them out of the water last Sunday, but I’m too lazy to cut and paste and then retype the numbers.
 

Crippled Division

 

20. Oakland Raiders

Season Record = 5-4
Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Why You Shouldn’t Panic = When Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone, it would’ve been smart for Oakland to pack it in with what they have. They weren’t winning a Super Bowl anyway. Amazingly, Oakland spent next year’s first rounder and a 2013 second rounder to acquire Carson Palmer. In other words, they mortgaged their future in a hail-Mary attempt at making the playoffs. It’s not a good time to be a Raiders fan.
 

19. Tennessee Titans

Season Record = 4-4
Against the Spread = 3-5
Injury No One Remembers = Kenny Britt was looking like the breakout wide receiver of 2011 before going down with a torn ACL. If Houston wins the AFC South, they should name Britt their MVP.
Fantasy Team Killer of the Year = Chris Johnson. I don’t think I even need to type supporting arguments for that statement.
 

The Edward Nigma Division

 

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Season Record = 4-4
Against the Spread = 3-5
A Year or Two Away? = Tampa overachieved last year to finish 10-6, and looks to be regressing to an 8-8 record. The young talent is still there, but Josh Freeman and company need to go through some adversity before rising to the level of a playoff caliber team.
 

17. Philadelphia Eagles

Season Record = 3-5
Against the Spread = 3-5
Some Dream Team = Similar to the early season struggles of the 2010-11 Miami Heat, Philadelphia has looked like a team that expects to dominate but then is surprised when it has to work for a victory. With the exception of their shellacking of the Cowboys (who’s defensive game-plan was about as inspired as Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan), Philadelphia has been unable to answer a punch to the mouth.
Maybe Philadelphia Should’ve Spent Money On… = A left guard.
Or… = A center.
Or… = A right guard.
Or… = A right tackle.
In Other Words… = This team can’t pass-block to save it’s life. Part of that is to blame on the play-calling of Andy Reid (he’s not as bad as Mike Martz, but Reid will often put five receivers in the pattern and leave the line on it’s own against a blitz), part of it is to blame on Michael Vick (who’s quickness gives him the confidence to hang on the ball longer than he probably should), but the majority of the blame lies with the offensive line. Philly hasn’t reloaded since the group led by Jon Runyan moved on.
 

16. Dallas Cowboys

Season Record = 4-4
Against the Spread = 3-4-1
A Star in the Making = The hype over Julius Jones back in 2004 has properly prepared me to deal with the sudden rise of DeMarco Murray. For those that don’t remember, Jones was a sensation during the second half of his rookie year. I remember watching a Sunday night game against the Giants where Joe Theismann spent three hours basically saying, “I don’t want to say it, but this guy is the next Barry Sanders.” The craziest Cowboys fans (yours truly included) were predicting a 2,000-yard season in 2005. Sadly though, Jones debuted his trademark running style of “run two yards and fall down.” With that said, DeMarco looks like a special player. His emergence gives Dallas a good chance to go on a 6-2 run during the second half.
 

15. San Diego Chargers

Season Record = 4-5
Against the Spread = 2-7
Wake Up Already = This team is essentially the AFC version of the Philadelphia Eagles minus the hype. Phillip Rivers has been doing his best Tony Romo impersonation (that fumble at the end of the Kansas City game ten days ago was ridiculous), and a defense that is annually ranked among the leagues best has been a mediocre unit at best. With all that said, I still believe the Chargers will turn it on and get to 10 wins and win the sorry AFC West.

(Editors Note: The bulk of this post was written before San Diego choked against Oakland. If I had more ambition, I would’ve dropped them to 18)

 

Frisky But Flawed Division

 

14. Buffalo Bills

Season Record = 5-3
Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Has the Clock Hit Midnight? = Buffalo looked awful last Sunday at home against the Jets. If they struggle at Dallas, it’s safe to say that this team has turned into a pumpkin.
 

13. Chicago Bears

Season Record = 5-3
Against the Spread = 4-4
Don’t Get To Excited = It’s important for you not to read to raise the bar to high for this club after their impressive win in Philadelphia. They still can’t block for Jay Cutler, and when they do he’s not throwing the ball to the likes of Jerry Rice and John Taylor (or for that matter, Condi Rice and James Taylor). This team is built to win regular season games, and playoff games against teams with mediocre quarterback play. Chicago is still a piece or two away from Super Bowl contention.
 

12. Detroit Lions

Season Record = 6-2
Against the Spread = 5-2-1
Reasons for Optimism = Matthew Stafford has arrived as an elite NFL quarterback. He takes a few too many hits, but when he gets there aren’t many guys that can make some of the passes he can. For the first time in a long time, Lions fans have a legitimate franchise quarterback.
Reasons for Pessimism = Outside of Calvin Johnson (who is the best receiver in the league as of right now), Brandon Pettigrew is the only other reliable receiving option. The offensive line can still be shaky at times, resulting in hits on Stafford and an inability to run the ball.
Best Case Scenario = A wild-card berth would be huge for Detroit and it’s fan base. Anything after that would be gravy.
 

The Lurkers Division

 

11. Cincinnati Bengals

Season Record = 6-2
Against the Spread = 7-1
The Red Head Can Chuck It = No Credentials was worried about Andy Dalton for two reasons. One, he’s a rookie. Two, he has red hair. Amazingly, neither of these things has stopped Dalton from guiding the Bengals surprising first half. Dalton is a keeper.
They Just Need One = Cincy has to play it’s home and home series with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore during the second half. If they only win one of those games, they would still have favorable odds of finishing with nine wins. With the scuffling being done by the Buffalo Bills, which should be enough to lock up the second AFC wildcard.
What a Future = Bengals owner Mike Brown couldn’t of played the Carson Palmer situation any worse, but somehow game out a winner (sounds like many people I’ve played poker with before). Cincinnati has the bonus of an extra first round pick, which gives them the flexibility to use one on a stud runningback (Alabama’s Trent Richardson perhaps). A young trio of Dalton, A.J. Green, and Richardson would be a fantastic foundation.
 

10. Houston Texans

Season Record = 6-3
Against the Spread = 5-3-1
Quietly Impressive = Houston doesn’t have any impressive victories, but what they’ve done without franchise cornerstones Andre Johnson and Mario Williams has been amazing. I thought they would fall apart without Williams, but their punishing running game has been able to keep the defense off the field. Houston could make some noise in the playoffs as long as Johnson is fully healthy.
Foster’s No Fluke = I’m not sure what happened between his time in college (he was an underachieving fumbler at Tennessee) to now, but Arian Foster is the most devastating runningback in the league not named Adrian Peterson.
 

9. Atlanta Falcons

Season Record = 5-3
Against the Spread = 4-4
What They Are Missing = A defensive playmaker. John Abraham is the closest thing they have to one, but he’s getting a little long in the tooth. You just have the feeling when you watch their games that if the opposing team needs to get points, they can drive down the field and do it.
 

The Contenders Division

 

8. New York Jets

Season Record = 5-3
Against the Spread = 4-4
The Achilles Heal = When Mark Sanchez is playing great, the Jets are nearly unbeatable. When he’s average, the Jets are a good football team. When he’s atrocious, the Jets are a pushover. There isn’t another quarterback who is more wildly inconsistent in the entire league.
 

7. New England Patriots

Season Record = 5-3
Against the Spread = 4-4
Press ‘Em = If you have the depth at cornerback to play man-to-man on New England’s wide receivers, you triple your chance of winning. Jam the receivers at the line, and you screw up the whole offense.
 

6. San Francisco 49ers

Season Record = 7-1
Against the Spread = 7-0-1
Enjoy the Ride in the Regular Season = I can’t wait to bet against San Francisco in the divisional round. Well let me rephrase that…if I still have money on my Sportsbook account in two months, I can’t wait to bet against the 49ers in the divisional round.
 

5. New Orleans Saints

Season Record = 6-3
Against the Spread = 5-4
Fatally Flawed? = New Orleans is essentially the same team as Atlanta, but with a better quarterback. I don’t think they’ll be able to get a big stop come playoff time.
 

4. New York Giants

Season Record = 6-2
Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Time to Believe? = All year long everyone has been talking about New York’s hellacious second half schedule (which is justifiable, because it’s ridiculous). The Giants just might have enough talent to weather the storm. If they can go .500 the rest of the way, they’ll finish 10-6, which should be enough to win the NFC East.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

Season Record = 6-3
Against the Spread = 4-5
Where’s the D? = With Baltimore pinned back on their eight yard line with less than five minutes to play, it was easy to sit on your couch and think the game was over. A combination of age and the way the game is called (defenses can’t mug teams the way they used to. Thank the 2003 Colts for whining about how the Patriots played them in the playoffs) has made Pittsburgh’s defense a moveable object.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

Season Record = 6-2
Against the Spread = 5-3
Be Careful on the Road = At this point in his career, it’s safe to say that Flacco is rock solid at home, but will lay the occasional egg in visiting stadiums. If you plan on betting the Ravens when they are away from home, do your best to get them into a teaser so you can bring the point spread down.

The Clear Favorite

1. Green Bay Packers

Season Record = 8-0
Against The Spread = 6-2
What Else is There to Say? = Aaron Rodgers has been playing out of his mind since Week 1. Good luck finding someone who is more worthy of winning the league MVP than him. Green Bay will go as far as Rodgers will take them.