32. Indianapolis Colts
Season Record = 0-9Against the Spread = 2-7
Why They Are My Second Favorite Team This Year = I’ve wagered against Indianapolis every week since I opened my Sportsbook account. Amazingly enough, I haven’t been arrested for stealing yet.
Reason For Optimism = Assuming Peyton Manning returns to full health after the season, the Colts are currently staring at the possibility of owning the rights of two franchise quarterbacks. Obtaining Luck would bring a larger compensation package, but some team would still pony up for Manning. A team that thinks it’s a quarterback away from winning a Super Bowl (example: the 49ers) would have to consider shipping two number ones for the rights to Peyton.
Best Case Scenario the Rest of the Way = Indianapolis clinches the number one pick with two weeks to go, and then is able to showcase Manning, proving to the rest of the league that he is healthy.
31. St. Louis Rams
Season Record = 1-7Against the Spread = 1-7
Bradford or Luck? = Andrew Luck is the better long-term prospect, but unfortunately for St. Louis the economics of the league would force them to hold on to Bradford. Trading their 2010 first overall selection would create a massive penalty on their cap for the next four years, limiting their ability to put a team around Luck. If the Rams end up with the top spot, expect wild trade rumors involving a third of the league right up until the NFL Draft.
Best Case Scenario = St. Louis has a soft schedule in the second half, which will enable them to rebuild the confidence of Sam Bradford. Don’t be surprised if they go 5-3 down the stretch.
30. Miami Dolphins
Season Record = 1-7Against the Spread = 2-6
Why Are They Winning? = No team was executing the “Suck for Luck” strategy better than Miami before they shellacked Kansas City last week. Someone upstairs needs to get on the coaches for putting in too good of a game plan, and the players for trying to hard. Will anyone remember that Miami won three games in 2011 if they miss out on a franchise quarterback for the next decade?
Reason for Optimism = Reggie Bush has looked like a legitimate NFL runningback, and not just a third-down option, the past two weeks. He hasn’t had much work during his NFL career, so he could be a late-bloomer.
Best Case Scenario = Miami loses the rest of their games, and Peyton Manning leads the Colts to two meaningless wins in December.
The Quincy Carter Division
29. Arizona Cardinals
Season Record = 2-6Against the Spread = 3-4-1
Reason for Optimism = Rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is the real deal. He’s been the most exciting rookie this season not named Cam Newton.
Reason for Depression = I defended Kevin Kolb during the first No Credentials Power Poll, but it’s getting harder and harder to each passing week. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, Arizona gave him a huge extension before he had spent two weeks with the organization.
Best Case Scenario = Getting Kolb through the rest of the year uninjured so he can get a full slate of off-season activities before the 2012 season.
28. Seattle Seahawks
Season Record = 2-6Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Reason for Optimism = Let’s see…barring unexpected developments they won’t get Andrew Luck…horrendous collection of offensive talent (with the exceptions of Russell Okung and Sidney Rice)… I guess we’ll just have to point to their awesome home-field advantage. And the fact that the season is over for them in two months.
Plan B? = It’s not out of the realm of possibility that former USC Head Coach Pete Carroll could end up with Matt Barkley in next years draft. For a team with very few assets to move (making it unlikely they could swoop in to get Luck or Manning), getting Barkley would be the most convenient way to fill the quarterback position and maintain draft picks to fill the rest of the holes on the roster.
Important Info For Gamblers = Seattle is always frisky in their home stadium. Be very careful including any team in a two or three-team teaser if they are playing in the Pacific Northwest.
27. Cleveland Browns
Season Record = 3-5Against the Spread = 2-4-2
Holy Madden Curse Batman! = The Madden Curse usually takes care of its business by breaking bones or decreasing a player’s ability. This year, The Madden Curse stepped it up a notch by not only straining Peyton Hillis’ hamstring, but also turning him into a clubhouse cancer. It reminds me of the time The League of Shadows attempted to destroy Gotham City through economics in “Batman Begins.”
26. Washington Redskins
Season Record = 3-5Against the Spread = 3-5
Vindication For No Credentials = I predicted before the season that Washington would be one of the worst teams in the league, but a funny thing happened at the beginning of the year. They started 3-1. Fortunately, a panic benching of Rex Grossman after a loss to the Eagles has led to a great run of futility by John Beck.
No Light at the End of the Tunnel = Looking at the schedule, the only two winnable home games for the Redskins are against Dallas (who Washington almost always beats at home, even during the Cowboys dynasty in the ‘90s) and Minnesota in Week 16. I’m comfortable saying that there is a 60% chance Washington goes winless the rest of the year.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
Season Record = 2-6Against the Spread = 3-4-1
Rough Slate = Like the rest of the AFC South, the schedule didn’t do Jacksonville any favors this year. They did well to win two of their first eight. The Jaguars play hard, but inexperience at the quarterback position has set them back.
Best Case Scenario = Blaine Gabbert has been the only rookie quarterback that has actually looked like a rookie quarterback this year. Two games against the Colts potentially can give Gabbert something to build on going into 2012.
God’s Team Division
24. Denver Broncos
Season Record = 3-5Against the Spread = 3-5
Scared to Type = Logic and reason no longer apply to the Denver Broncos now that Tim Tebow is under center. I’m not even going to pretend I have any clue how the rest of their season is going to turn out.
Good Bad Teams Division
23. Carolina Panthers
Season Record = 2-6Against the Spread = 5-2-1
The Franchise = Cam Newton has proven you, every NFL analyst, and me wrong. His ability to adapt to the NFL game has been remarkable. Don’t let the record fool you. This is a club that has only been outscored by 20 points for the entire season, and only one of their six losses was by more than seven points.
Name a WR Happier Than Steve Smith = You can’t. The guy finally has a big-time quarterback throwing him the ball. Smith’s production with Jake Delhomme over the last decade is amazing considering that his quarterback was Jake Delhomme. Now that Smith is paired with Newton, expect him to finish out his career in Carolina on a high note.
Best Case Scenario = Going 4-4 the rest of the way, and using a top-12 draft pick to help shore up the offensive line next April.
22. Minnesota Vikings
Season Record = 2-6Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Ponder This = ESPN and No Credentials openly mocked Christian Ponder getting taken at 14 during last years draft. While the sample size is small, Ponder has silenced some critics during his first two starts. He appears to be competent enough to take advantage of defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop Adrian Peterson.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
Season Record = 4-4Against the Spread = 5-3
Oops! = I should move them down at least three spots after Miami went into their building and blew them out of the water last Sunday, but I’m too lazy to cut and paste and then retype the numbers.
Crippled Division
20. Oakland Raiders
Season Record = 5-4Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Why You Shouldn’t Panic = When Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone, it would’ve been smart for Oakland to pack it in with what they have. They weren’t winning a Super Bowl anyway. Amazingly, Oakland spent next year’s first rounder and a 2013 second rounder to acquire Carson Palmer. In other words, they mortgaged their future in a hail-Mary attempt at making the playoffs. It’s not a good time to be a Raiders fan.
19. Tennessee Titans
Season Record = 4-4Against the Spread = 3-5
Injury No One Remembers = Kenny Britt was looking like the breakout wide receiver of 2011 before going down with a torn ACL. If Houston wins the AFC South, they should name Britt their MVP.
Fantasy Team Killer of the Year = Chris Johnson. I don’t think I even need to type supporting arguments for that statement.
The Edward Nigma Division
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season Record = 4-4Against the Spread = 3-5
A Year or Two Away? = Tampa overachieved last year to finish 10-6, and looks to be regressing to an 8-8 record. The young talent is still there, but Josh Freeman and company need to go through some adversity before rising to the level of a playoff caliber team.
17. Philadelphia Eagles
Season Record = 3-5Against the Spread = 3-5
Some Dream Team = Similar to the early season struggles of the 2010-11 Miami Heat, Philadelphia has looked like a team that expects to dominate but then is surprised when it has to work for a victory. With the exception of their shellacking of the Cowboys (who’s defensive game-plan was about as inspired as Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan), Philadelphia has been unable to answer a punch to the mouth.
Maybe Philadelphia Should’ve Spent Money On… = A left guard.
Or… = A center.
Or… = A right guard.
Or… = A right tackle.
In Other Words… = This team can’t pass-block to save it’s life. Part of that is to blame on the play-calling of Andy Reid (he’s not as bad as Mike Martz, but Reid will often put five receivers in the pattern and leave the line on it’s own against a blitz), part of it is to blame on Michael Vick (who’s quickness gives him the confidence to hang on the ball longer than he probably should), but the majority of the blame lies with the offensive line. Philly hasn’t reloaded since the group led by Jon Runyan moved on.
16. Dallas Cowboys
Season Record = 4-4Against the Spread = 3-4-1
A Star in the Making = The hype over Julius Jones back in 2004 has properly prepared me to deal with the sudden rise of DeMarco Murray. For those that don’t remember, Jones was a sensation during the second half of his rookie year. I remember watching a Sunday night game against the Giants where Joe Theismann spent three hours basically saying, “I don’t want to say it, but this guy is the next Barry Sanders.” The craziest Cowboys fans (yours truly included) were predicting a 2,000-yard season in 2005. Sadly though, Jones debuted his trademark running style of “run two yards and fall down.” With that said, DeMarco looks like a special player. His emergence gives Dallas a good chance to go on a 6-2 run during the second half.
15. San Diego Chargers
Season Record = 4-5Against the Spread = 2-7
Wake Up Already = This team is essentially the AFC version of the Philadelphia Eagles minus the hype. Phillip Rivers has been doing his best Tony Romo impersonation (that fumble at the end of the Kansas City game ten days ago was ridiculous), and a defense that is annually ranked among the leagues best has been a mediocre unit at best. With all that said, I still believe the Chargers will turn it on and get to 10 wins and win the sorry AFC West.
(Editors Note: The bulk of this post was written before San
Diego choked against Oakland. If I had more ambition, I would’ve dropped them
to 18)
Frisky But Flawed Division
14. Buffalo Bills
Season Record = 5-3 Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Has the Clock Hit Midnight? = Buffalo looked awful last Sunday at home against the Jets. If they struggle at Dallas, it’s safe to say that this team has turned into a pumpkin.
13. Chicago Bears
Season Record = 5-3Against the Spread = 4-4
Don’t Get To Excited = It’s important for you not to read to raise the bar to high for this club after their impressive win in Philadelphia. They still can’t block for Jay Cutler, and when they do he’s not throwing the ball to the likes of Jerry Rice and John Taylor (or for that matter, Condi Rice and James Taylor). This team is built to win regular season games, and playoff games against teams with mediocre quarterback play. Chicago is still a piece or two away from Super Bowl contention.
12. Detroit Lions
Season Record = 6-2 Against the Spread = 5-2-1
Reasons for Optimism = Matthew Stafford has arrived as an elite NFL quarterback. He takes a few too many hits, but when he gets there aren’t many guys that can make some of the passes he can. For the first time in a long time, Lions fans have a legitimate franchise quarterback.
Reasons for Pessimism = Outside of Calvin Johnson (who is the best receiver in the league as of right now), Brandon Pettigrew is the only other reliable receiving option. The offensive line can still be shaky at times, resulting in hits on Stafford and an inability to run the ball.
Best Case Scenario = A wild-card berth would be huge for Detroit and it’s fan base. Anything after that would be gravy.
The Lurkers Division
11. Cincinnati Bengals
Season Record = 6-2Against the Spread = 7-1
The Red Head Can Chuck It = No Credentials was worried about Andy Dalton for two reasons. One, he’s a rookie. Two, he has red hair. Amazingly, neither of these things has stopped Dalton from guiding the Bengals surprising first half. Dalton is a keeper.
They Just Need One = Cincy has to play it’s home and home series with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore during the second half. If they only win one of those games, they would still have favorable odds of finishing with nine wins. With the scuffling being done by the Buffalo Bills, which should be enough to lock up the second AFC wildcard.
What a Future = Bengals owner Mike Brown couldn’t of played the Carson Palmer situation any worse, but somehow game out a winner (sounds like many people I’ve played poker with before). Cincinnati has the bonus of an extra first round pick, which gives them the flexibility to use one on a stud runningback (Alabama’s Trent Richardson perhaps). A young trio of Dalton, A.J. Green, and Richardson would be a fantastic foundation.
10. Houston Texans
Season Record = 6-3Against the Spread = 5-3-1
Quietly Impressive = Houston doesn’t have any impressive victories, but what they’ve done without franchise cornerstones Andre Johnson and Mario Williams has been amazing. I thought they would fall apart without Williams, but their punishing running game has been able to keep the defense off the field. Houston could make some noise in the playoffs as long as Johnson is fully healthy.
Foster’s No Fluke = I’m not sure what happened between his time in college (he was an underachieving fumbler at Tennessee) to now, but Arian Foster is the most devastating runningback in the league not named Adrian Peterson.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Season Record = 5-3Against the Spread = 4-4
What They Are Missing = A defensive playmaker. John Abraham is the closest thing they have to one, but he’s getting a little long in the tooth. You just have the feeling when you watch their games that if the opposing team needs to get points, they can drive down the field and do it.
The Contenders Division
8. New York Jets
Season Record = 5-3Against the Spread = 4-4
The Achilles Heal = When Mark Sanchez is playing great, the Jets are nearly unbeatable. When he’s average, the Jets are a good football team. When he’s atrocious, the Jets are a pushover. There isn’t another quarterback who is more wildly inconsistent in the entire league.
7. New England Patriots
Season Record = 5-3Against the Spread = 4-4
Press ‘Em = If you have the depth at cornerback to play man-to-man on New England’s wide receivers, you triple your chance of winning. Jam the receivers at the line, and you screw up the whole offense.
6. San Francisco 49ers
Season Record = 7-1Against the Spread = 7-0-1
Enjoy the Ride in the Regular Season = I can’t wait to bet against San Francisco in the divisional round. Well let me rephrase that…if I still have money on my Sportsbook account in two months, I can’t wait to bet against the 49ers in the divisional round.
5. New Orleans Saints
Season Record = 6-3Against the Spread = 5-4
Fatally Flawed? = New Orleans is essentially the same team as Atlanta, but with a better quarterback. I don’t think they’ll be able to get a big stop come playoff time.
4. New York Giants
Season Record = 6-2Against the Spread = 4-3-1
Time to Believe? = All year long everyone has been talking about New York’s hellacious second half schedule (which is justifiable, because it’s ridiculous). The Giants just might have enough talent to weather the storm. If they can go .500 the rest of the way, they’ll finish 10-6, which should be enough to win the NFC East.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Season Record = 6-3Against the Spread = 4-5
Where’s the D? = With Baltimore pinned back on their eight yard line with less than five minutes to play, it was easy to sit on your couch and think the game was over. A combination of age and the way the game is called (defenses can’t mug teams the way they used to. Thank the 2003 Colts for whining about how the Patriots played them in the playoffs) has made Pittsburgh’s defense a moveable object.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Season Record = 6-2Against the Spread = 5-3
Be Careful on the Road = At this point in his career, it’s safe to say that Flacco is rock solid at home, but will lay the occasional egg in visiting stadiums. If you plan on betting the Ravens when they are away from home, do your best to get them into a teaser so you can bring the point spread down.
The Clear Favorite
1. Green Bay Packers
Season Record = 8-0Against The Spread = 6-2
What Else is There to Say? = Aaron Rodgers has been playing out of his mind since Week 1. Good luck finding someone who is more worthy of winning the league MVP than him. Green Bay will go as far as Rodgers will take them.
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