Saturday, December 31, 2011

Week 17 NFL Picks

EAGLES (-8.5) over Redskins
            I initially had Washington penciled in here, but I made a ton of money on the Eagles last week (I would feel guilty betting against Dallas on Christmas Eve, but knew that the game didn’t matter to them. Also, I would feel guilty about phoning in a bet to my Dad while I was at my in-laws house on Christmas Eve, but…I actually don’t have a legitimate reason not to feel guilty about that). I realize last week has nothing to do with this week, but that is why this blog is called No Credentials.

Philadelphia 35, Washington 21
Confidence Score = 2        

49ers (-10.5) over RAMS
            San Francisco needs a win to secure the second seed in the NFC (and a first round bye). St. Louis needs to lose to have a shot at the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. I might talk myself into betting my car on this game.

San Francisco 31, St. Louis 0
Confidence Score = 16

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Bears
            Two words…Joe fucking Webb.

Minnesota 21, Chicago 13
Confidence Score = 12

Lions (-3) over PACKERS
            Detroit needs to win to secure a date with the pathetic NFC East winner. Green Bay has absolutely no reason to risk anyone’s health in this game.

Detroit 27, Green Bay 14
Confidence Score = 13

Panthers (+8) over SAINTS
            New Orleans will try in this game until mid-way through the second quarter when San Francisco is up by 17 over the Rams.

Carolina 31, New Orleans 17
Confidence Score = 11

Titans (-2.5) over TEXANS
            Houston can’t improve it’s seed, and is better served resting players before the franchise’s first playoff game in team history next week. Tennessee still has a chance at a wild card, so expect them to take care of business.

Tennessee 24, Houston 10
Confidence Score = 15

JAGUARS (-3.5) over Colts
            I’m on board with the Colts actually trying to win the game for Peyton Manning, but have a hard time believing Dan Orlovsky can win three straight games.

Jacksonville 20, Indianapolis 16
Confidence Score = 7

DOLPHINS (-3) over Jets
            The Jets just look like the kind of team that needs to finish 8-8.

Miami 24, New York 17
Confidence Score = 10

PATRIOTS (-10) over Bills
            New England needs a win to lock up home field in the AFC.

New England 34, Buffalo 17
Confidence Score = 14

Buccaneers (+11.5) over FALCONS
            Tampa is going to look like a real NFL team playing against whomever the Falcons back-up quarterback is (is Steve DeBerg still on their roster?).

Tampa Bay 17, Atlanta 14
Confidence Score = 9

Ravens (-2) over BENGALS
            Who could’ve predicted that Cincinnati would actually be playing for something in Week 17? Unfortunately for them, Baltimore is playing for a first round bye.

Baltimore 28, Cincinnati 24
Confidence Score = 4

Steelers (-6.5) over BROWNS

            It doesn’t matter to me if Roethlisberger plays or not in this one.

Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 3
Confidence Score = 1

RAIDERS (-3) over Chargers
            It makes sense for San Diego to pack it in so they can secure a higher draft pick. For that reason alone I’ll ride with the Raiders.

Oakland 21, San Diego 14
Confidence Score = 6

BRONCOS (-3) over Chiefs
            God’s going to figure this one out for Tebow. Don’t be surprised if Kyle Orton breaks a bone or two or twelve in this game.

Denver 13, Kansas City 9
Confidence Score = 8

Seahawks (+3) over CARDINALS
            Sometimes, you just have to take the points.

Seattle 24, Arizona 23
Confidence Score = 5

GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
            Part of me hopes that this sorry Dallas team gets put out of its misery.

New York 38, Dallas 31
Confidence Score = 3

Friday, December 30, 2011

Things to Look Forward to in 2012

            Here’s a quick, off the cuff list of things I’m looking forward to in 2012. Items listed are in no particular order.

The Dark Knight Rises

            The only thing that is slightly curbing my enthusiasm is the presence of Anne Hathaway. No Credentials predicts that she will create a holy trinity of women who put a damper on each Christopher Nolan Batman movie (joining Katie Holmes and Maggie Gyllenhaal).




Jimmie Johnson Not Defending His Sprint Cup Championship

            Every five or six days I check the NASCAR website, just to make sure that J.J. really didn’t win the 2011 title.

The World Ending

            No Credentials is planning on doing an on-going fictional tale called “Waiting for the World to End”. It might be 2 chapters long. It could be 150 chapters long. Expect plenty of politically incorrect content and hopefully, a laugh or two before zombies ravage the Earth, or whatever it is that the Mayans have predicted will happen.

More Mailbag Questions From Loyal Reader Ryan B.
            If it’s been too long between mailbags, Ryan fires off a 1,000-word question to me via Facebook. I just got one a week ago, so look for a mailbag very soon.

(EDITORS NOTE: You have a question of your own? Send it to c_muir@hotmail.com.  I’ll literally attempt to answer any question that is sent my way on any topic. I figured out why Jimmy cracked corn, so clearly I can figure out anything)  

Betting on the Kentucky Derby

            My ability to do this largely hinges on whether or not my Sportsbook account will have anything left after foolishly attempting to bet on the NBA.

(QUICK TANGENT: Sorry for the foul language I’m about to use, but I have to share this story… the Utah Jazz fucked me the other night. Hard. They were playing their first game of the season Tuesday against the Lakers. Keep in mind that the Lakers were playing their third game in THREE NIGHTS. Surely the Lakers would run out of gas in the second half, and Utah would pull out an upset win, or at the very least cover the spread, right? How about no. I think the score was 252-31 Los Angeles at half time. I bet the Jazz at +4.5, and had them in two separate parlays. Ouch. Thankfully, a huge bet on the Pacers Wednesday night recouped all of my losses and then some. If there is ever a petition out to get the GM of the Utah Jazz fired, I’d like to be one of the first names on it)

The 2012 Presidential Election

            Ever heard of the old football phrase, “If you have two quarterbacks, you really have none”? That’s the problem with the Republicans. If I were running the Republican Party, I’d throw old Newt out to get slaughtered this year and save Romney for 2016.

Super Bowl XLVI

            I don’t have a good read on who will make the big game this year (loyal readers of my football picks can confirm that), but I feel like the Packers/Saints vs. the Steelers/Ravens/Patriots is going to be a hell of a game.

The Denver Broncos Off-Season

            No Credentials has a rogue agent out in Denver who managed to come up with a document out of John Elway’s office. The file name was “Ways to Discreetly Knock Out Tebow Without Causing Fans to Set Sofas on Fire in My Front Lawn” (I know, the name is really long, but Elway did lead a 98-yard drive to win the AFC one year. The dude likes long things. Let’s leave that last sentence alone before I make an inappropriate joke).

Leak a Photo-shopped picture of Tebow with Lindsey Lohan in a hot tub
Hire a hit man to smack Tebow’s left elbow several times with a 6-iron
Pay local television station to air all of Tebow’s attempts to throw a 10-yard out 24 hours straight.
Trade Tebow and draft picks for rights to Andrew Luck
Have team doctors diagnose Tebow with a fake heart abnormality and void his contract
Ask God to tell Tebow to convert to fullback

            I don’t remember a franchise ever being held captive by a mediocre quarterback who was so beloved by fans. It will be fun to see how the Broncos play their cards during the draft and free agency.

NBA/NHL Playoffs

            Secretly, my favorite sports time of the year (there’s an epic playoff game on every single day. What’s better than that?). Not so secretly, my wife’s least favorite time to live in the same house as me. Both leagues look to be fairly wide open this season (we’ll try to fire up some NHL power rankings within a couple of weeks), so this April-June could be the best since 2008.

The No Credentials Baseball Draft

            Two or three of you may remember that I started a keeper league that I wrote about fairly regularly until the NFL lockout ended. I was so busy with football that I even forgot to mention that I won the first year of the league thanks to the most successful season of trading I have ever had with any fantasy team (if I had more time, I would’ve written a 6,000 word column about it that absolutely none of you would’ve cared about). After year one everyone gets to keep five guys, so this draft will be pivotal to the long-term success of each team (we get to keep 10 after year two and 15 after year three). This paragraph would be longer, but my pocket protector just broke and ink is leaking all over my shirt.

Tiger Woods

            Call me a sucker for getting too excited about Tiger’s win last month, but I’m predicting big things for Mr. Woods in 2012.

My Son Speaking English
            My boy is a year and a half now, and by my count, has a ten-word vocabulary. He just added “ya”, “no”, and “boo” the other day. He’s now doing the thing where kids try to say sentences, but it ends up sounding like “da imp boo kash mick” or something. The sooner he grasps all parts of speech, the sooner I can explain that Tom Brady hates Sesame Street. As a Cowboys fan living in New England, I will have to pull out all the stops to prevent him from being a Patriots fan.

            So there you have it. Have a safe (don’t drive drunk) and happy (don’t get in a fight) New Year everyone.

Monday, December 26, 2011

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/23-12/25)

10. My Son Vomits All Over Our Car While Driving Christmas Eve
            Just incase you were ever wondering, traveling with a toddler sucks.

9. Miami Ruins Mavericks Title Celebration
            It’s safe to say that this game was much more important to Lebron James and the Heat than it was to the defending NBA champions. Nevertheless, an impressive performance by the Heat.

8. Knicks Barely Hang On Versus Pierce-less Celtics
            New York played hard and earned the win, but they shouldn’t feel to happy that a Boston team playing without their best player came back from 17 down at one point to make a game of it.

7. Packers Return to Form, Blast Bears
            Chicago had no answers for Aaron Rodgers, who tossed five touchdown passes. Green Bay’s defense is still suspect, but they won’t have a tough opponent until the NFC Championship Game.

6. Buffalo Bills Clobber God’s QB
            God must’ve been too busy getting ready for His Son’s birthday to support the Broncos Saturday.

5. Bulls Rally, Nip Lakers By 1
            Chicago fell asleep in the third quarter, but turned it on late to rally from 11 points down with less than four to play. Derrick Rose made the type of play MVPs make (although he loses points for blowing by Derek Fisher, because Julius Erving could probably trot out on a court today and blow by Derek Fisher) to win the game.

4. Giants Stomp Jets, Brandon Jacobs Almost Stomps Rex Ryan
            Would beating up Rex Ryan have been worth 50 fantasy points for Jacobs?
       
3. Presents
2. Family
1. Christmas
            I hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Blow-Out the Budget 2011-12 NBA Preview

            No Credentials spent (way too much) time reviewing every roster in the NBA. Here are the qualifications for the three levels of players we assigned.

A-Level = A man capable of being the best player on a championship contending team with the right personal around him, or a player with the potential to be that type of guy.

B-Level = A man capable of being the second, third, or fourth best player on a championship contending team, or a player with A-Level talent that has personality traits that prevent them from reaching that level.

C-Level = Players capable of delivering 15-25 solid minutes off the bench, or former A and B-Level players that have slight chances of bouncing back.

30. Charlotte Bobcats
A-Level = None
B- Level = SF/PF/C Boris Diaw
C- Level = PG D.J. Augustin, SF Corey Maggette
Rookies = PG Kemba Walker, C Bismack Biyombo
Reason for Optimism = Probable top-5 pick in loaded 2012 Draft.
            Michael Jordan wasn’t a hard-line owner in the lockout because he cared about the economics of the NBA. I think he just wanted to cancel the season so no one would have to see his crappy team attempt to play basketball. It would be wise for Charlotte to give plenty of minutes to Kemba Walker to see if he is a viable NBA player. His size forces him to play the point, but he doesn’t have the natural passing instincts of Stephen Curry to make the transition be as smooth.

29. Cleveland Cavaliers
A-Level = None
B-Level = PF Antawn Jamison, C Anderson Varejao
C-Level = PG/SG Ramon Sessions
Rookies = PG Kyrie Irving, PF Tristan Thompson
Reason for Optimism = New foundation is under construction.
            I don’t see Kyrie Irving developing to a point where he is on the level of a Paul/Rose/Williams type player, but Irving could eventually be the second or third best player on a contending team. Odds are Cleveland will end up with another high first round pick for 2012. A core of Irving, Tristan Thompson (who looks like a project player at this point, but could be a force in two or three seasons, and one of the top rookies from the 2012 class will be something for Cavs fans to look forward too. Flipping Varejao and Jamison to contending teams for future draft picks would speed the rebuilding process even more.

28. Detroit Pistons
A-Level = None
B-Level = SG Ben Gordon, C Greg Monroe
C-Level = PG/SG Rodney Stuckey, SF Tayshaun Prince, SF Austin Daye, PF Charlie Villanueva
Rookies = PG Brandon Knight, C Vernon Macklin
Reason for Optimism = They have to fire Joe Dumars soon…right?
            If the NBA title were awarded to the team that acquired the most mediocre players that play the same positions, Detroit would easily be the championship favorites. Joe Dumars is like the owner in your fantasy football league who drafts two quarterbacks in the first four rounds. Resigning Tayshaun Prince will only take away minutes from promising youngsters like Austin Daye. 

27. Toronto Raptors
A-Level = None
B-Level = SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Andrea Bargnani
C-Level = PG Jose Calderon, PG Jerryd Bayless, SG Leandro Barbosa, PF Amir Johnson, C Ed Davis
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = The Maples Leafs are back!
            My wife loves DeMar DeRozan. She drafted him in the sixteenth round in our fantasy draft last year. She loves that he has two capital letters in the middle of his first and last name. She loves that he didn’t use props or gimmicks in last years dunk contest, and then called out the people who did. Needless to say, it wasn’t surprising that she took DeRozan about 25 picks earlier than she needed to in our draft this past Sunday.

26. Washington Wizards
A-Level = PG John Wall
B-Level = C JaVale McGee
C-Level = SG Nick Young, SF Rashard Lewis, PF Andray Blatche
Rookies = SF Jan Vesely, PG Shelvin Mack, SF Chris Singleton
Reason for Optimism = Jan Vesely’s girlfriend.
            John Wall should take a major step forward in his development, but there isn’t enough talent around him to fully take advantage of it. Washington would be wise to tank the season in order to get a second banana for Wall (think a Harrison Barnes, Anthony Davis type player).

25. Phoenix Suns
A-Level = None
B-Level = PG Steve Nash, PF Channing Frye, C Marcin Gortat
C-Level = SG/SF Jared Dudley, SG Shannon Brown, SF Grant Hill, C Robin Lopez
Rookies = PF Markieff Morris
            This looks like the year the Phoenix Suns will finally hit rock bottom. Nash still has the ability to make everyone on the court with him better, but it’s going to be a challenge for him to hold up through the condensed schedule. I don’t see a guy on this roster that will be able to get his own shot (unless Shannon Brown has some skills we don’t know about). Hopefully for the sake of Nash the Suns have the decency to ship him to a contender.

24. Milwaukee Bucks
A-Level = None
B- Level = PG Brandon Jennings, SG Stephen Jackson, C Andrew Bogut
C-Level = SG Mike Dunleavy, SF Carlos Delfino, SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, PF Drew Gooden
Rookies = SF Tobias Harris, PF Jon Leuer
Reason for Optimism = Greg Jennings will be back after the bye!
            Milwaukee plays real hard defense, but had a terrible time trying to score last season. I’ll be polite and say that Brandon Jennings’ shot selection was questionable. He’ll benefit from having Stephen Jackson on the team, which hopefully well allow him to stay out of hero mode on a nightly basis. The only thing that will save the Bucks from lottery-ville will be Andrew Bogut returning to his 2009-10 form (pre-elbow injury).

23. New Jersey Nets
A-Level = PG Deron Williams
B-Level = C Brook Lopez (out 4-10 weeks), PF Kim Kardashian’s Ex-Husband…oh I’m sorry he has a name…Kris Humphries
C-Level = PG Jordan Farmar, SG Anthony Morrow, SF/PF Shawne Williams, C Mehmet Okur
Rookies = SG Marshon Brooks, C Jordan Williams
Reason for Optimism = A couple of months of Dwight Howard trade rumors before he ends up with the Lakers.
            I wrote a couple of flattering things about the Nets a couple of nights ago (and a joke about how they could trade Brook Lopez and a bag of dog poop for Dwight Howard), but now Lopez will probably miss at least half of the regular season. Ouch.

22. Philadelphia 76ers
A-Level = None
B-Level = PG Jrue Holiday, SF Andre Iguodala, SF Thaddeus Young, PF Elton Brand
C-Level = PG Louis Williams, SG Evan Turner, SG Jodie Meeks, C Spencer Hawes
Rookies = PF Lavoy Allen, C Nikola Vucevic
Reason for Optimism = What will they get when they move Andre Iguodala?
            I’d like this group a lot more if this were a normal season, but can’t see Elton Brand holding up long. He’s not a guy that’s capable to survive a nine games in twelve days type stretch. My two main objectives this season if I were running the 76ers would be to see if Evan Turner can morph into a franchise player (he didn’t appear to have that potential last season), and then find a suitor for Andre Iguodala. Iguodala would be a valuable defensive force on a playoff team, but isn’t suiting to being your squad’s best player. He’s the classic “B-Level Guy Being Asked to be an A-Level Guy” example.

21. New Orleans Hornets
A-Level = SG Eric Gordon
B-Level = C Emeka Okafor, PF/C Chris Kaman
C-Level = PG Jarrett Jack, SF Trevor Ariza, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = David Stern is going to rig the draft so the Hornets end up with the top-2 picks next year.
            Gordon is poised for a monster season (think 27 points per game), but unfortunately there just isn’t enough around him this season for the Hornets to make the playoffs. Expect guys like Ariza or Kaman to eventually get flipped for future assets, and also expect the Hornets to look very scary going into the 2013-14 season. 

20. Minnesota Timberwolves
A-Level = None
B-Level = PF Kevin Love
C-Level = PG J.J. Barea, SG Wes Johnson, SF Michael Beasley, PF Anthony Tolliver, PF Anthony Randolph, C Darko Millcic
Rookies = PG Ricky Rubio, SF Derrick Williams, SG Malcolm Lee
Reason for Optimism = Plenty of assets to attempt to trade for star players that want nothing to do with playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
            GM David Kahn has taken a page out of the Joe Dumars playbook, and acquired all sorts of players that do the exact same thing. Most seasons that would be a problem, but in the 120 sprint the NBA has scheduled, an over abundance of depth might not be a bad thing. The Timberwolves will have no problem trotting out guys with fresh legs every night. Would you bet on the Celtics back-ups to beat Minnesota’s second unit (which will feature Williams, Barea, Tolliver, and Randolph to begin the season)? I wouldn’t.

19. Sacramento Kings
A-Level = None
B-Level = PG/SG Tyreke Evans, SG Marcus Thornton, C DeMarcus Cousins
C-Level = SG Francisco Garcia, SF John Salmons, PF J.J. Hickson
Rookies = PG Jimmer Fredette (JIMMER!), PG Isaiah Thomas, SF Tyler Honeycutt
Reason for Optimism = Fans get to watch the oddest collection of characters since “Arrested Development”
            I could probably write 3,000 words about how crazy this roster is. Jimmer must’ve thought he accidentally arrived at a halfway house when he showed up for Kings training camp. I’d like to see the go small with Jimmer and Thornton in the backcourt, Tyreke at the 3, and Cousins and Hickson working down low. None of those five guys would play defense, but the team would put up 115 per game. 

18. Utah Jazz
A-Level = PF/C Al Jefferson
B-Level = PG Devin Harris, PF Paul Millsap, PF Derrick Favors
C-Level = SG C.J. Miles
Rookies = C Enes Kanter, SG Alec Burks
Reason for Optimism = Great skiing!
            Utah is stuck with the same issue that screwed the Lakers up last season. Their three best players (Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors) usually can’t be on the court together. Things are even more complicated when you throw rookie Enes Kanter (who is a project player) into the mix. Millsap will reportedly see a lot of time at small forward, but that would be a disaster defensively. Look for Utah to move Millsap before the trade deadline, whether they are in contention or not.

17. Golden State Warriors
A-Level = PG Stephen Curry, PG/SG Monta Ellis
B-Level = SF Dorell Wright, PF David Lee
C-Level = None
Rookies = SG Klay Thompson, C Jeremy Tyler, PG Charles Jenkins
Reason for Optimism = The “sent” folder on Monta Ellis’ cellphone.
            Golden State will never be a contender until they move either Curry or Ellis. Neither of them can guard opposing 2-guards, which is tough when there is no one behind them to defend the rim (sorry Kwame Brown, there’s 10 years of evidence that you are not that guy). Ellis has a hint of Marbury, so he would be the guy I would try to move. 

16. Denver Nuggets
A-Level = None
B-Level = PG Ty Lawson, SG Arron Afflalo, SF Danilo Gallinari, PF Nene Hillario
C-Level = PG Andre Miller, SG Rudy Fernandez, SF Corey Brewer, PF Al Harrington, C Timofey Mozgov, C Chris Anderson
Rookies = SF Jordan Hamilton, PF Kenneth Faried
Reason for Optimism = Wilson Chandler is tearing it up right now…in China…until March…
               It’s amazing that Denver traded it’s franchise player away ten months ago, and lost three guys who decided to play in China, still looks this competitive on paper. If Gallinari or Lawson make the leap to A-Level status, we could be talking about a club that lands the third seed in the western conference.    

15. Houston Rockets
A-Level = None
B-Level = PG Kyle Lowry, SG Kevin Martin, SF Chase Budinger, PF Luis Scola
C-Level = PG Goran Dragic, SG Courtney Lee
Rookies = PF Marcus Morris, SF Chandler Parsons
Reason for Optimism = If we suck, we can blame David Stern from preventing Pau Gasol and Nene joining our team.
            For years, Houston has been hoarding assets. The hoarding of those assets finally appeared to pay off when the Rockets facilitated the Chris Paul trade to the Lakers. Alas, Stern vetoed the trade, Houston didn’t get Pau Gasol (and Nene, who apparently was set to join if Pau was acquired), and is now stuck with a bunch of pissed off players. As it stands now, Houston is a decent center away from being a contender in the west.

14. Orlando Magic
A-Level = C Dwight Howard
B-Level = SG Jason Richardson
C-Level = PG Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Ryan Anderson, PF Glen Davis
Rookies = SF DeAndre Liggins, PF Justin Harper
Reason for Optimism = Local amusement parks.
            No wonder Dwight Howard wants to leave Orlando. Big Baby was there big off-season move so far, which is even crazier when you factor in that they gave up a better player (Brandon Bass) to get him. It’s hard to tell if Orlando will stay strong in attempting to convince Howard to stay. If he does, they are looking at a four through sixth seed in the east. The earlier they trade him, the better chances of acquiring a top lottery pick. My advice for Orlando is to ship Howard out now to the highest bidder.

13. Atlanta Hawks
A-Level = SF/PF Josh Smith
B-Level = SG Joe Johnson, PF/C Al Horford
C-Level = PG Jeff Teague, SG/SF Tracy McGrady, SF Marvin Williams,
Rookies = PF Keith Benson
Reason for Optimism = If the world ends next year, we won’t have to pay Joe Johnson anymore money!
            I’d like Atlanta much more if they found a live body to play center, which would allow Smith and Horford to switch to the four and three. They don’t have enough size to exploit a team like Miami, and not enough athleticism to hang with Chicago. The only hope for the Hawks is Jeff Teague. If he becomes a consistent top-15 point guard, Atlanta has the big guns to hang with the elite teams of the east.

12. San Antonio Spurs
A-Level = SG Manu Ginobili
B-Level = PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker
C-Level = SG Gary Neal, PF Matt Bonner, C DeJuan Blair, C Tiago Splitter
Rookies = SF Kawhi Leonard, PG Cory Joseph
Reason for Optimism = Due to end up with the top pick in the draft and pick a seven-footer that will be a cornerstone of the franchise for 15 years.
            If there was ever a team that was not constructed to play 66 games in 120 days, it would be this one. San Antonio is going to need major contributions from Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter to hang in the playoff race out west. That’s the only way the burden can be taken off of the very old foundation. Don’t be surprised if the long rumored Tony Parker trade finally comes to fruition this season.

11. Los Angeles Lakers
A-Level = SG Kobe Bryant, PF/C Pau Gasol
B-Level = C Andrew Bynum (suspended first four games)
C-Level = PG Derek Fisher, SF Matt Barnes, SF Metta World Peace, PF Josh McRoberts, PF/C Troy Murphy
F-Level = SF Luke Walton
Rookies = PG Darius Morris, SG Andrew Goudelock, PF Ater Majok
Reason for Optimism = Stem cells.
            Here’s another team not constructed to play a sprint schedule. Los Angeles has slowly morphed into one of the least athletic teams in the league. Losing Lamar Odom (one of the most versatile players in the league who could also handle the ball) is a killer for a club that has a gaping hole at point guard. They’ll be dangerous in the playoffs regardless of seed. It’s just a matter of keeping Kobe, Pau, and Bynum healthy.

10. New York Knicks
A-Level = SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Amar’e Stoudemire
B-Level = C Tyson Chandler, PG Baron Davis (out for probably the first month with a back injury)
C-Level = PG/SG Toney Douglas, SG Landry Fields
F-Level = PG Mike Bibby’s Rotting Corpse, I Mean, PG Mike Bibby (it’s hard to tell he’s still alive sometimes)
Rookies = SG Iman Shumpert, C Josh Harrellson
Reason for Optimism = No point guard, no problem! (they hope)
            I’d like the Knicks so much more if they had Lebron James instead of Carmelo. Anthony will be asked to be primary distributor of the ball (at least until Baron Davis is healthy), which is a role he has never had. For the most part, he’s been a ball-stopping isolation player his entire career. It will be interesting to see if he has the ability and mind-set to do it. He’ll need to shoulder the load in order to keep Amar’e and his shaky knees healthy through the season.

9. Portland Trail Blazers
A-Level = PF LaMarcus Aldridge
B-Level = PG Raymond Felton, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Gerald Wallace, C Marcus Camby, PG/SG Jamal Crawford
C-Level = C Kurt Thomas, C Greg Oden, C Greg Oden’s Penis
Rookies = PG Nolan Smith, SG Jon Diebler, SF Tanguy Ngombo
Reason for Optimism = Brandon Roy (may his basketball career R.I.P.) is no longer being paid $1, much less $18 million.
            I really like Portland’s top-6, but have concerns about the rest of the bench. Nolan Smith needs to give 15 Eric Maynor-like minutes a night to stabilize the second unit. If they can get anything out of Greg Oden come playoff time, Portland will boast the deepest group of bigs in the western conference.  

8. Boston Celtics
A-Level = SF Paul Pierce
B-Level = PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, PF Kevin Garnett
C-Level = SG Marquis Daniels, PF Brandon Bass, C Jermaine O’Neal, C Chris Wilcox
Rookies = SG E’twaun Moore, PF JaJuan Johnson
Reason for Optimism = The Patriots beat Tebow!
            Boston failed to trade for Chris Paul, and pissed off Rondo in the process (not sure how he’ll react to that, although things have gone well in the pre-season so far). David West spurned them and instead signed with the Pacers. The only positive move for the Celtics was upgrading from Big Baby to Brandon Bass (and saving a few bucks in the process). The Celtics would be wise to take it easy in the regular season to keep the Big 4 healthy, and then run at full strength during the playoffs. They will need all four guys playing at their best to have any shot of winning the title.

7. Indiana Pacers
A-Level = SF Danny Granger
B-Level = PG Darren Collison, SG Paul George, PF David West, C Roy Hibbert
C-Level = PG/SG George Hill, PF Tyler Hansbrough, C Jeff Foster
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = Pieces are in place
            I’m predicting that the Pacers will be my NBA version of the Milwaukee Brewers (I loved them in my MLB preview last spring). There isn’t an overwhelming amount of depth, but I really like their 8-man rotation. David West’s arrival filled a gaping hole in the post, and allows Roy Hibbert to focus more on playing tough defense and cleaning up on the offensive glass. The only things that could derail them is a Danny Granger injury (he’s had a few during his career) and a David West injury (he’ll be a season removed from an ACL tear while trying to play 66 games in 120 days). If health is in their favor, watch out for the Pacers.

6. Dallas Mavericks
A-Level = PF Dirk Nowitzki
B-Level = PG Jason Kidd, SG Vince Carter, SG Jason Terry, SF Shawn Marion, SF/PF Lamar Odom
C-Level = PG Delonte West, C Brendan Haywood
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = We’re the defending champs bitch!
            The more I think about it, I really like how Mark Cuban and his people put their title-defending team together. There’s the ability to play big or small (having Kidd-Terry-Carter-Dirk-Odom out on the court at the same time could be the fastest bunch of old dudes in NBA history), and have tons of shooters to surround Nowitzki. The Mavericks’ chance at a title hinge largely on how well Brendan Haywood can fill the void left by Tyson Chandler. A repeat is unlikely, but look for the Mavericks to be stronger than the experts think. Either way, Dallas has done a nice job building a competitive team along with cap space for next year’s free agent class.

5. Los Angeles Clippers
A-Level = PG Chris Paul, PF Blake Griffin
B-Level = PG/SG Chauncey Billups, PG Mo Williams, SF Caron Butler, C DeAndre Jordan
C-Level = PG/SG Randy Foye, PG/SG Eric Bledsoe, SF Ryan Gomes, C Reggie Evans
Rookies = SG Travis Leslie, PF Trey Thompkins
Reason for Optimism = Blake Griffin, Year 2: Lob City.
             The Clippers are a really good that are a minor tweak or two away from being great. Their Achilles heal appears to be the ability to guard opposing 2-guards. Asking the combination of Paul/Billups/Williams/Foye do it for 48 minutes is a tall order. Moving Mo Williams to a team for a guy like O.J. Mayo would make a whole lot of sense. In addition, shipping Eric Bledsoe out for an additional big-man (Bill Simmons talked about how Anderson Varejao would be an excellent back-up for both Griffin and Jordan) would give this team depth across the board. Look for the Clippers to be very active before the trade deadline. Even after the Chris Paul trade, they have plenty of moveable parts left. 

4. Memphis Grizzlies
A-Level = PF Zach Randolph
B-Level = SF Rudy Gay, C Marc Gasol, PG Mike Conley, SG Tony Allen, SG O.J. Mayo
C-Level = PG Greivis Vazquez, SF Sam Young, PF Darrell Arthur (injured to start the year), PF Mikki Moore
Reason for Optimism = The return of Rudy Gay to a club that nearly made the Western Conference Finals last year without him.
            There isn’t a more underrated front-line in the NBA than Gay-Randolph-Gasol. All three are athletic, all of them can hammer the glass, and all three can score when the opportunity is there. The ceiling of the Grizzlies will be decided by whether or not they move O.J. Mayo, and what they get back in return. Personally, I think they should keep him as their sixth man and try to have him fill a Jason Terry-like role. Last year’s playoff run wasn’t a fluke. The Grizzlies are for real.

3. Chicago Bulls
A-Level = PG Derrick Rose
B-Level = C Joakim Noah, PF Carlos Boozer, SF Luol Deng, SG Richard Hamilton, PF Taj Gibson
C-Level = SG Ronnie Brewer, SF Kyle Korver
F-Level = PF Brian Scalabrine
Rookies = SF Jimmy Butler
Reason for Optimism = We finally have a 2-guard that can do stuff!
            The reason Miami overwhelmed the Bulls after Chicago’s Game 1 win in the Eastern Conference Finals was the inability of anyone other than Derrick Rose to create their own shot. Chicago has two potential sources of alternate offense this season. The obvious first choice is Richard Hamilton, who has spent the past two seasons in purgatory on the putrid Pistons. It’s unclear how much (if anything) Hamilton has left in the tank, but the early returns in pre-season have been good. The other source is the return to form of Carlos Boozer. Boozer battled injuries all last season, which eventually led to a loss in confidence during the postseason. By the time the Bulls entered the playoffs Taj Gibson was a much more effective player. Boozer has also looked great so far in pre-season, giving hope to Bulls fans that they will finally have the interior scoring they thought they were getting when they signed Boozer in the summer of 2010. 

2. Miami Heat
A-Level = SG Dwyane Wade, SF Lebron James
B-Level = PF Chris Bosh
C-Level = PG Mario Chalmers, SG-SF Shane Battier, SF Mike Miller, PF Udonis Haslem
Rookies = PG Norris Cole
Reason for Optimism = Not as much of the country hates the Heat as they did last year.
            The same depth issues Miami dealt with last season still exist today, but this appears to be the team in pole position to benefit from the return of the players stuck in China. Joel Anthony doesn’t strike fear in anyone (except Lebron when he sets up Anthony with a perfect look-pass only to see Anthony fumble it out of bounds), but imagine if they can add Kenyon Martin for the final month of the year and the playoffs? One of the China guys is going to take less money for a shot at a ring. The only thing that will keep Miami out of the Eastern Conference Finals is the health of Dwyane Wade.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
A-Level = SF Kevin Durant, PG Russell Westbrook
B-Level = SG James Harden, PF/C Serge Ibaka, C Kendrick Perkins
C-Level = PG Eric Maynor, SG Thabo Sefolosha, SF Daequan Cook, PF Nick Collison, C Nazr Mohammed
Rookies = SG Reggie Jackson (not the MLB Hall-of-Famer)
Reason for Optimism = If there ever was a team prepared to play 66 games in 120 days, it’s this one.
            Oklahoma has so many things going in it’s favor this season that I’ll list all of them in their own bullet point.

-         If James Harden makes the leap to superstardom (which a few experts think is a possibility), the Thunder will be the only team with three elite scorers on its roster.

-         Except for Perkins, Collison, and Mohammed, there isn’t a dude over 25 years old on this team. Young legs will take you far this year.

-         There isn’t a more flexible team in the league right now. These guys can beat you big or small.

-         Eric Maynor would be starting for at least 10 other teams. I’d like to see the Thunder put him and Westbrook in the same backcourt. Imagine a small-ball line up of Maynor-Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka? Yikes.

-         A full-season of Perkins means a full-season of Serge Ibaka racking up vicious weak-side blocks.

            The only underlying plot that will prevent Oklahoma City from reaching it’s potential is the alpha dog battle between Durant and Westbrook. At some point, Westbrook has to accept that he is Robin to Durant’s Batman. If they can get to the point where they are running the pick and roll together, there will be no stopping Oklahoma City from winning the 2012 NBA Championship.

           




Saturday, December 24, 2011

Week 16 NFL Picks

            For those that missed my losing pick for this past Thursday’s game (by they way, someone explain to me why the Colts are trying to win football games?), my picks were so awful last week that I’m refraining from offering analysis this week. I don’t want to give anyone the false impression that I know what I’m talking about.

CHIEFS (-2.5) over Raiders

Confidence Score = 14

Broncos (-3) over BILLS
Confidence Score = 9

TITANS (-7) over Jaguars
Confidence Score = 6

Cardinals (+4.5) over BENGALS
Confidence Score = 3

PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Dolphins
Confidence Score = 5

RAVENS (-12.5) over Browns
Confidence Score = 2

JETS (-3) over Giants
Confidence Score = 7

REDSKINS (-7) over Vikings
Confidence Score = 16

PANTHERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
Confidence Score = 15

Rams (+12.5) over STEELERS
Confidence Score = 1

Chargers (+2) over LIONS
Confidence Score = 13

SEAHAWKS (+2) over 49ers
Confidence Score = 8

Eagles (+1) over COWBOYS
Confidence Score = 11

PACKERS (-12) over Bears
Confidence Score = 4

SAINTS (-7) over Falcons
Confidence Score = 10

Last Week = 4-10-2 (yikes!)
LW Top-5 = 3-2
Thursday Pick = 0-1 (I ask again…why are the Colts winning games?)
Season = 107-107-10
S Top-5 = 38-35-2

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Colts-Texans Pick

My picks were so bad last week, I'm restricting myself from offering analysis this week.

Texans (-6) over COLTS
Confidence Score = 12

Monday, December 19, 2011

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/16-12/18)

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I participated in a 30 round fantasy basketball draft last night (in other words, a draft that was 10 or 15 rounds too long), so we’re keeping the analysis of each subject to a sentence or two (unless I decide to write longer about something, which I can do because it’s my blog, but you know that already). As always, there will be a link posted so you can read up on each headline if you missed it over the weekend.

10. Phillies Sign Jimmy Rollins For 3 Years, $33 Million
            The performance of Derek Jeter last season proves that when you have the chance to lock up an aging shortstop that’s in decline, you do it. Oh wait…

9. Routine Physical Potentially Saves Jeff Green’s Life
            This space hasn’t had a story that puts sports in perspective for a while.

8. Lions Mount Huge Comeback, Steal $35 From No Credentials Sportsbook Account
            As someone who may or may not have wagered on the Raiders money-line Sunday, I wish Suh’s suspension were three games instead of two.

7. Reds Acquire Mat Latos From San Diego
            “Experts” seem to believe San Diego won this trade (they did pick up two potential mainstays of their lineup for years to come, a future closer candidate, and a starter who is just three years removed from an All-Star Game appearance), but I love this move for both sides. The NL Central is very winnable in 2012, so kudos to the Reds for having the stones to go out and get an ace.

6. Drew Brees Goes Bonkers
            Brees’ fantasy owners must’ve felt like doing a rendition of the final stage of the Tour de France after his monster day.

5. Giants Choke at Home Against Redskins
            Combined with Tony Romo leading the Cowboys to victory Saturday night, this was a rare weekend in December for a Dallas fan to be excited.

4. Colts Win a Game For Some Reason
            Here are the updated “Suck for Luck” standings after Indianapolis inexplicably decided to win against Tennessee.

1.      Colts
            2.      Rams
            3.      Vikings

3. Chiefs End Packers Run at Perfection
            Somewhere out there, Don Shula and the rest of the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins are very happy after Kansas City improbably knocked off Green Bay. The Packers could be in a world of trouble if Greg Jennings isn’t back for the divisional round of the playoffs.
       
2. New England Patriots Defy God, His QB, Broncos
            Don’t be surprised if Brady and/or Belichick are hit by lightning tomorrow as punishment for pounding Tim Tebow and the Broncos into oblivion.
         
1. My Son Gets His First Haircut
            Considering how he freaks out every time we try to brush his teeth, this was a huge win for the Muir household. My son’s hair looked like a cross between Gene Wilder and a used cue tip before we finally broke down and got it trimmed.

           

           

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Week 15 NFL Picks

Programming Note = There’s no line yet for the 49ers-Steelers Monday night game due to Big Ben’s bum ankle. As soon as a line is posted we’ll make a pick.

BILLS (-1) over Dolphins

I’m not crazy about the Bills, but am less crazy about a team that just fired their head coach.

Buffalo 21, Miami 17
Confidence Score = 3

Redskins (+7) over GIANTS

Washington beat the Giants in Week 1, and should be able to throw all over the putrid Giants secondary. Expect Sexy Rex Grossman to keep this game close until a backbreaking turnover late in the fourth quarter.

New York 34, Washington 31
Confidence Score = 5

Packers (-14) over CHIEFS
I might put Green Bay into five different two-team teasers this week. I feel like the undefeated Packers aren’t the best match-up for a team that just canned its head coach.

Green Bay 34, Kansas City 17
Confidence Score = 11

Saints (-7) over VIKINGS
Minnesota’s pass defense was not built to shut down Akili Smith, much less Drew Brees. New Orleans can move into position to snag the second seed in the NFC with a win and a San Francisco loss Monday night.

New Orleans 48, Minnesota 27
Confidence Score = 14

BEARS (-3.5) over Seahawks
The unwatchable game of the week, sponsored by “Tyler Perry’s House of Pain”.

Chicago 10, Seattle 0
Confidence Score = 9

TEXANS (-6) over Panthers
Carolina’s defense can’t stop anyone. Houston might run for 300 yards Sunday.

Houston 27, Carolina 17
Confidence Score = 6

Titans (-6.5) over COLTS
Chris Johnson fantasy owners that were patient and are somehow still alive in their fantasy playoffs… you will be rewarded handsomely this Sunday.

Tennessee 28, Indianapolis 14
Confidence Score = 15

Bengals (-7) over RAMS
I’d be more confidence about this pick if the Bengals were home, but I could see St. Louis showing up for this game (assuming they don’t have to attempt to score from the one-yard line).

Cincinnati 23, St. Louis 14
Confidence Score = 4

RAIDERS (+1) over Lions
Oakland can’t stop the run. Detroit can’t run the ball. That bodes well for the Raiders.

Oakland 27, Detroit 24
Confidence Score = 7

BRONCOS (+7.5) over Patriots
Ultimately this game comes down to the match-up between God and the golden horseshoe that’s been stuffed up Tom Brady’s ass for the last decade. I can’t in good faith (pun intended) bet against God, His QB, and His team. Well, in terms of covering the spread anyway.

New England 28, Denver 21
Confidence Score = 1

EAGLES (-3) over Jets
Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal both mentioned this possibility on their podcast Monday, but it’s worth repeating. If the Cowboys and Giants finish the season 8-8, and the Eagles win out, Philadelphia wins the NFC East.

Philadelphia 20, New York 14
Confidence Score = 13

CARDINALS (-6.5) over Browns
It’s hard to believe that the Arizona Cardinals could be .500 after this week with a win over Cleveland.

Arizona 24, Cleveland 3
Confidence Score = 16

CHARGERS (+2.5) over Ravens
I think San Diego’s remarkable similarities to the Dallas Cowboys are the reason I’m so easily hooked by them. That and I think Joe Flacco is due for a clunker. (EDITORS NOTE: I hedged on that last statement by just inserting Torrey Smith into one of my fantasy teams lineups for the semi-finals. Either way, I should win somehow)

San Diego 24, Baltimore 21
Confidence Score = 12

Thursday Pick = 1-0
Last Week = 8-8
LW Top-5 = 2-3
Season = 103-97-8
Season Top-5 = 35-33-2

Cowboys-Buccaneers Pick

BUCCANEERS (+7) over Cowboys
With the exception of two blowout wins over the Rams and Bills, Dallas only has one other victory that actually covered the spread. Even more disconcerting, Dallas as already played down to the level of the Redskins (twice), Cardinals, and Dolphins this season. I don't care how screwed up Tampa Bay is right now. There's no way Dallas wins this game by double digits.

Dallas 31, Tampa Bay 27
Confidence Score = 8

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Falcons-Jaguars Pick

FALCONS (-13.5) over Jaguars

Atlanta should look much better than they really are tonight.

Atlanta 34, Jacksonville 10
Confidence Score = 10

Monday, December 12, 2011

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/9-12/11)

10. NL MVP Ryan Braun Faces 50-Game Suspension for Positive PEDs Test
            So Braun was supposedly on the juice all season and only managed to hit 33 home runs? Sounds like Braun needs a better ‘roids dealer.

9. Baylor QB Robert Griffin III Wins Heisman Trophy
            I’m a little embarrassed to say this, but I had not heard of Robert Griffin III until he won the Heisman Trophy Saturday night. I guess I don’t know a damn thing about college football.

8. Lakers Pull Out of Chris Paul Talks, Trade Lamar Odom to Mavericks
            Within a matter of four days, the Lakers went from taking the opening steps to forming their own Big 3 (they weren’t moving Gasol if they didn’t know they were also going to end up with Dwight Howard) to giving away their fourth best player in what can best be described as a salary dump.

7. Xavier and Cincinnati Throw Down
            At the risk of sounding immature, I’ll make the following statement…basketball brawls are awesome.

6. Indiana Hits Buzzer-Beater, Knocks Off Top Ranked Kentucky
            College basketball is more fun when Indian is relevant. Big win for Coach Crean and the Hoosiers.

5. Knicks Trade for Tyson Chandler, Amnesty Chauncey Billups
            For non-NBA fans, amnesty means, “to get rid of”. For as many times as Billups has been kicked to the curb by NBA teams during his career, I don’t blame him for wigging out when he found out he was released.

4. Patriots Survive in Washington, Brady Chews Out Offensive Coordinator
            It really wasn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but it was fun to see the golden boy not look so golden boyish for a change.    
     
3. Texans Shock Bengals
            I think it’s time for folks to start buying stock in T.J. Yates.
       
2. Giants Pull-Off Ridiculous Comeback in Dallas
            I’d feel much worse about this game, but No Credentials snuck in a live bet on the Giants money line immediately after Romo missed a wide-open Miles Austin with three minutes left.
         
1. God’s QB Strikes Again
            I’m just going to let God’s QB himself sum up this game (and this week’s column) after another thrilling comeback, this time against Chicago.

“If you believe, then unbelievable things can sometimes be possible.” – Tim Tebow

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Sports Gone Bonkers and Week 14 NFL Picks

            No Credentials has degenerated into a hack-gambling blog (which depending on your point of view, is a step up or down from a hack-sports analyst blog), so we’re getting back to our roots a little bit with this week’s NFL picks. I’ve mixed in some commentary on all of the crazy transactions (both completed and attempted), a low brow joke about Colt McCoy, and I discuss a successful NHL parlay bet that you won’t care about. Enjoy!

On Pujols to the Angels… This was the “wow” story of the day Thursday until the botched Chris Paul trade blew it off the headlines (what does that say for the state of baseball when the movement of it’s best player to another team is overshadowed by a screwed up NBA trade?). A ten-year deal sounds crazy for a 31-year-old first basemen (who may really be 35, if conspiracy theorists are to be believed), but it’s more sensible when you consider Pujols will be in the American League. Use of the DH spot should allow the Angels to get six or seven good Pujols seasons as opposed to just four or five. Throw in the signing of C.J. Wilson away from the rival Rangers, and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim/California/Orange County/San Andreas Fault are the prohibitive favorites in the AL West, and maybe even the entire American League.


RAVENS (-16.5) over Colts

            I don’t trust Flacco enough to cover this many points to stick this game in my top-5, but have already plugged this game into a 10-point teaser.

Baltimore 34, Indianapolis 10
Confidence Score = 11

Texans (+3) over BENGALS
            The Bengals bubble has burst.

Houston 24, Cincinnati 10
Confidence Score = 9

On Colt McCoy continuing to play last Thursday after suffering a concussion… I can understand how Cleveland missed that their quarterback had his bell rung against Pittsburgh. McCoy plays every week like he’s suffering the effects of a concussion.

JETS (-10.5) over Chiefs
            Mark Sanchez will pull something out of his ass to allow the Jets to cover.

New York 17, Kansas City 6
Confidence Score = 7

On Dwight Howard flirting with the Nets… This story only makes sense if two scenarios are in play. The first one is that Howard (and more likely, his agent) were pissed that the Lakers tried to get Chris Paul first, and wanted to float it out among the masses that Howard’s “preferred” the New Jersey/Brooklyn/New York Lite Nets over any other team. Sure he gets to run the pick and roll with Deron Williams (which by the way, would be devastating), but does he really want to play on the second fiddle New York team over the Lakers? I don’t think so.
            Scenario two is that the mutant multi-billionaire owner of the Nets offered Howard 30 virgins who look exactly like Anna Kournikova. I’m leaning towards scenario two.

Vikings (+10) over LIONS
            Peterson’s return against the still Suh-less Lions should keep the score close.

Detroit 24, Minnesota 21
Confidence Score = 4

TITANS (+3.5) over Saints
            I don’t feel great about this pick, but this game is much more important to Tennessee than it is to the Saints.

Tennessee 27, New Orleans 21
Confidence Score = 3

DOLPHINS (-3) over Eagles
            Miami has been a point spread covering juggernaut for almost two full months. Expect that to continue against the hapless Eagles.

Miami 27, Philadelphia 20
Confidence Score = 10

On the two hockey parlays I wrote about the other night… We’ll skip the parlay I did with Phoenix and the Rangers, because you read enough depressing stuff everyday and don’t need to hear about how both teams lost, or how Phoenix was down 5-1 at one point against Detroit. Lets skip the negative, and hit the positive. The Panthers-Bruins game went exactly as I thought it would (which is weird, because things work out the way I think I should roughly 6.8932949% of the time). Lost in all the talk in Beantown about Tyler Seguin’s desperate need for a functioning alarm clock was the fact that the Florida Panthers are a damn good hockey team. From what I can figure out, anytime you can get a good team at anything better than +150, you take it.
            As for the second leg of the parlay, New Jersey appeared to have the win in the bag against Ottawa until giving up a shorthanded goal with four seconds left in the third period. Thankfully 95% of hockey games are not on cable television, or else I surely would’ve clogged an artery over this game. Thankfully, New Jersey was able to pull it out in overtime. After that overtly exciting (and emotionally taxing win) I think I’ll take a few days off from betting hockey.

Patriots (-8) over REDSKINS
            New England doesn’t need to cover a three touchdown spread, so I like them this week.

New England 41, Washington 24
Confidence Score = 13

PANTHERS (+3) over Falcons
            It’s hard not to bet the over (only 47) on this game.

Carolina 38, Atlanta 35
Confidence Score = 6

Buccaneers (-2.5) over JAGUARS
            The only game on the schedule worse than the Monday night game this week.

Tampa Bay 27, Jacksonville 10
Confidence Score = 2

On the Chris Paul saga… Bill Simmons pretty much wrote all of my thoughts on this debacle here, but let me again list my primary gripes.

  1. Where can a better offer from Chris Paul come from? The Clippers had already resisted trading Eric Gordon. Golden State already had said Stephen Curry was untouchable. Boston was offering a package built around Rajon Rondo, but do you really want to build your team around a point guard who can’t shoot (here’s a quick answer to that question Celtics fans…NOPE)? Rumor has it that the Knicks had worked out a similar three-team deal that the Lakers tried to make (which would’ve resulted in Amar’e Stoudemire ending up in Houston), but New Orleans wouldn’t of gotten a player of Lamar Odom’s caliber back. The point is, the Hornets had pursued all avenues. They knew that Chris Paul’s value would be at its highest before the season when no clubs had added any free agents yet. What they can get for him will only go down as the season progresses. That three-way deal looked like the best package New Orleans was going to get.
  2. Just because a bunch of small-market owners wine means that a trade in a professional sports league gets nixed? Do NBA owners get the same option to veto trades as fantasy sports owners do? I wasn’t aware that was the case. Other owners had every right to gripe about the Lakers acquiring Paul (who wants to see a rival team getting a top-5 point guard), but to let that griping lead to a veto is insane.
  3. David Stern just needs to go away. The man seems to have forgotten that the success of teams in urban markets is what has made his league what it is. Apparently according to Stern, the needs of owners of teams like Cleveland and Minnesota are more important than the needs of owners of the leagues most important franchises (Lakers, Celtics, Bulls). I’m not sure when Stern morphed into a hardcore socialist, but it is not healthy for the league.

49ers (-4) over CARDINALS
            People are little too excited about Arizona after their fluky win over the Cowboys.

San Francisco 20, Arizona 3
Confidence Score = 15

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bears
            Caleb Hanie is not the man to defy God and His QB.

Denver 17, Chicago 7
Confidence Score = 14

PACKERS (-11.5) over Raiders
            Review Oakland’s performance against New England earlier this season to see the most likely outcome for this game.

Green Bay 35, Oakland 14
Confidence Score = 12

On Hanley Ramirez not wanting to play third base… This scenario reminds me of a classic male-female relationship battle. Let’s say the male (we’ll call him Ted) asks his girlfriend what she thinks if he goes to a friend’s house to play poker on a Friday night. The girl (we’ll call her Molly) says, “sure if that’s something you want to do.” (EDITORS NOTE: Hey guys, I know virtually nothing about women, but I do know that when they throw out the “if that’s what you want to do” line, that means they think whatever it is that you want to do is retarded). Ted says he’ll think about it for a day or two before deciding if he’ll go.
            Friday rolls around, and Ted tells Molly he’s going to play poker. Molly freaks out, saying things like, “Why don’t you want to spend time with me on Friday night? We usually watch a movie every Friday and eat popcorn and cuddle.” Ted says, “Just the other day you said it was cool if I played poker.” Molly then rolls her eyes and walks out of the room.
            To make a long story short, that’s essentially what happened with Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins reached out to Hanley two weeks ago and asked if he would mind switching to third. Hanley apparently said something to the extent of, “Well, if it would make the team better I’ll do it.” (EDITORS NOTE: For those still following along, “if it would make the team better” is the equivalent of “if that’s something you want to do”) He must not of thought the Marlins were serious, but quickly realized they were when the signed Jose Reyes for $106 million. Ramirez has already spoken to the media and said he never okayed a switch to third, and was never on board with it.
            How will this all play out? I see Ramirez getting traded. Ozzie Guillen is not a guy that will put up with shit like this, and I’m guessing the new owners of the team aren’t very happy about it either. There are certainly enough teams looking for a shortstop, so expect Miami to get a king’s ransom for him.

CHARGERS (-7) over Bills
            I’ll buy a San Diego resurgence for at least one more week.

San Diego 34, Buffalo 17
Confidence Score = 16

Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS
            I have no idea what’s going to happen in this game, so we’ll play it safe and take the points.

Dallas 27, New York 24
Confidence Score = 1

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Rams
            Marshawn Lynch looks like the front-runner for the “surprise fantasy runningback that will swing championships” award.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 10
Confidence Score = 8

Thursday Pick = 1-0 (good job Browns only losing by 11)

Season Record = 95-89-8
S Top-5 = 33-30-2

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Steelers-Browns, Plus Bonus NHL Picks

Browns (+14) over STEELERS
Pittsburgh has played down to the level of a couple of teams this season (Jacksonville at home in Week 6, both Indianapolis and Kansas City on the road), and I forsee a similar situation tonight. Pittsburgh is going to win, but it won't be pretty (or convincing).

Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 10
Confidence Score = 6

Now on to my newest gambling endeavor...NHL parlays!

After two miserable parlays on Monday (three of the four teams I picked lost. Ouch), I scored my first career NHL parlay victory with of all combos, the Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames Tuesday night. Amazingly, I wasn't struck by lightning today because of this. Here is a couple of combinations I may have put together (and wagered on) for tonights action (because you know, I'm 1-2 doing these, so clearly I'm an expert).

Panthers (+170) over BRUINS
DEVILS (-140) over Senators

I'm not sure how Boston will respond after Tyler Seguin makes his return from his one game benching, and Ottawa was the only team on tonight's slate that played last night. Bet $5.00 to potentially turn it into $23.14.

Coyotes (+140) over RED WINGS
RANGERS (-165) over Lightning

Phoenix always gives Detroit problems, and they actually play better on the road (9-4-1) then at home (I guess that isn't too shocking, because roughly 36 people give a shit about hockey in the state of Arizona). As for the Rangers, they are playing a crappy Lightning team. $5.00 could morph into $19.27 if both these teams win.

As always, I highly advise all of you to find your local bookie and wager on the exact opposite. We'll briefly discuss how bad these two hockey bets were before the Week 14 NFL picks.