A-Level = A man capable of being the best player on a
championship contending team with the right personal around him, or a player
with the potential to be that type of guy.
B-Level = A man capable of being the second, third, or
fourth best player on a championship contending team, or a player with A-Level
talent that has personality traits that prevent them from reaching that level.
C-Level = Players capable of delivering 15-25 solid minutes
off the bench, or former A and B-Level players that have slight chances of
bouncing back.
30. Charlotte Bobcats
A-Level = NoneB- Level = SF/PF/C Boris Diaw
C- Level = PG D.J. Augustin, SF Corey Maggette
Rookies = PG Kemba Walker, C Bismack Biyombo
Reason for Optimism = Probable top-5 pick in loaded 2012 Draft.
Michael Jordan wasn’t a hard-line owner in the lockout because he cared about the economics of the NBA. I think he just wanted to cancel the season so no one would have to see his crappy team attempt to play basketball. It would be wise for Charlotte to give plenty of minutes to Kemba Walker to see if he is a viable NBA player. His size forces him to play the point, but he doesn’t have the natural passing instincts of Stephen Curry to make the transition be as smooth.
29. Cleveland Cavaliers
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PF Antawn Jamison, C Anderson Varejao
C-Level = PG/SG Ramon Sessions
Rookies = PG Kyrie Irving, PF Tristan Thompson
Reason for Optimism = New foundation is under construction.
I don’t see Kyrie Irving developing to a point where he is on the level of a Paul/Rose/Williams type player, but Irving could eventually be the second or third best player on a contending team. Odds are Cleveland will end up with another high first round pick for 2012. A core of Irving, Tristan Thompson (who looks like a project player at this point, but could be a force in two or three seasons, and one of the top rookies from the 2012 class will be something for Cavs fans to look forward too. Flipping Varejao and Jamison to contending teams for future draft picks would speed the rebuilding process even more.
28. Detroit Pistons
A-Level = NoneB-Level = SG Ben Gordon, C Greg Monroe
C-Level = PG/SG Rodney Stuckey, SF Tayshaun Prince, SF Austin Daye, PF Charlie Villanueva
Rookies = PG Brandon Knight, C Vernon Macklin
Reason for Optimism = They have to fire Joe Dumars soon…right?
If the NBA title were awarded to the team that acquired the most mediocre players that play the same positions, Detroit would easily be the championship favorites. Joe Dumars is like the owner in your fantasy football league who drafts two quarterbacks in the first four rounds. Resigning Tayshaun Prince will only take away minutes from promising youngsters like Austin Daye.
27. Toronto Raptors
A-Level = NoneB-Level = SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Andrea Bargnani
C-Level = PG Jose Calderon, PG Jerryd Bayless, SG Leandro Barbosa, PF Amir Johnson, C Ed Davis
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = The Maples Leafs are back!
My wife loves DeMar DeRozan. She drafted him in the sixteenth round in our fantasy draft last year. She loves that he has two capital letters in the middle of his first and last name. She loves that he didn’t use props or gimmicks in last years dunk contest, and then called out the people who did. Needless to say, it wasn’t surprising that she took DeRozan about 25 picks earlier than she needed to in our draft this past Sunday.
26. Washington Wizards
A-Level = PG John WallB-Level = C JaVale McGee
C-Level = SG Nick Young, SF Rashard Lewis, PF Andray Blatche
Rookies = SF Jan Vesely, PG Shelvin Mack, SF Chris Singleton
Reason for Optimism = Jan Vesely’s girlfriend.
John Wall should take a major step forward in his development, but there isn’t enough talent around him to fully take advantage of it. Washington would be wise to tank the season in order to get a second banana for Wall (think a Harrison Barnes, Anthony Davis type player).
25. Phoenix Suns
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PG Steve Nash, PF Channing Frye, C Marcin Gortat
C-Level = SG/SF Jared Dudley, SG Shannon Brown, SF Grant Hill, C Robin Lopez
Rookies = PF Markieff Morris
This looks like the year the Phoenix Suns will finally hit rock bottom. Nash still has the ability to make everyone on the court with him better, but it’s going to be a challenge for him to hold up through the condensed schedule. I don’t see a guy on this roster that will be able to get his own shot (unless Shannon Brown has some skills we don’t know about). Hopefully for the sake of Nash the Suns have the decency to ship him to a contender.
24. Milwaukee Bucks
A-Level = NoneB- Level = PG Brandon Jennings, SG Stephen Jackson, C Andrew Bogut
C-Level = SG Mike Dunleavy, SF Carlos Delfino, SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, PF Drew Gooden
Rookies = SF Tobias Harris, PF Jon Leuer
Reason for Optimism = Greg Jennings will be back after the bye!
Milwaukee plays real hard defense, but had a terrible time trying to score last season. I’ll be polite and say that Brandon Jennings’ shot selection was questionable. He’ll benefit from having Stephen Jackson on the team, which hopefully well allow him to stay out of hero mode on a nightly basis. The only thing that will save the Bucks from lottery-ville will be Andrew Bogut returning to his 2009-10 form (pre-elbow injury).
23. New Jersey Nets
A-Level = PG Deron WilliamsB-Level = C Brook Lopez (out 4-10 weeks), PF Kim Kardashian’s Ex-Husband…oh I’m sorry he has a name…Kris Humphries
C-Level = PG Jordan Farmar, SG Anthony Morrow, SF/PF Shawne Williams, C Mehmet Okur
Rookies = SG Marshon Brooks, C Jordan Williams
Reason for Optimism = A couple of months of Dwight Howard trade rumors before he ends up with the Lakers.
I wrote a couple of flattering things about the Nets a couple of nights ago (and a joke about how they could trade Brook Lopez and a bag of dog poop for Dwight Howard), but now Lopez will probably miss at least half of the regular season. Ouch.
22. Philadelphia 76ers
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PG Jrue Holiday, SF Andre Iguodala, SF Thaddeus Young, PF Elton Brand
C-Level = PG Louis Williams, SG Evan Turner, SG Jodie Meeks, C Spencer Hawes
Rookies = PF Lavoy Allen, C Nikola Vucevic
Reason for Optimism = What will they get when they move Andre Iguodala?
I’d like this group a lot more if this were a normal season, but can’t see Elton Brand holding up long. He’s not a guy that’s capable to survive a nine games in twelve days type stretch. My two main objectives this season if I were running the 76ers would be to see if Evan Turner can morph into a franchise player (he didn’t appear to have that potential last season), and then find a suitor for Andre Iguodala. Iguodala would be a valuable defensive force on a playoff team, but isn’t suiting to being your squad’s best player. He’s the classic “B-Level Guy Being Asked to be an A-Level Guy” example.
21. New Orleans Hornets
A-Level = SG Eric GordonB-Level = C Emeka Okafor, PF/C Chris Kaman
C-Level = PG Jarrett Jack, SF Trevor Ariza, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = David Stern is going to rig the draft so the Hornets end up with the top-2 picks next year.
Gordon is poised for a monster season (think 27 points per game), but unfortunately there just isn’t enough around him this season for the Hornets to make the playoffs. Expect guys like Ariza or Kaman to eventually get flipped for future assets, and also expect the Hornets to look very scary going into the 2013-14 season.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PF Kevin Love
C-Level = PG J.J. Barea, SG Wes Johnson, SF Michael Beasley, PF Anthony Tolliver, PF Anthony Randolph, C Darko Millcic
Rookies = PG Ricky Rubio, SF Derrick Williams, SG Malcolm Lee
Reason for Optimism = Plenty of assets to attempt to trade for star players that want nothing to do with playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
GM David Kahn has taken a page out of the Joe Dumars playbook, and acquired all sorts of players that do the exact same thing. Most seasons that would be a problem, but in the 120 sprint the NBA has scheduled, an over abundance of depth might not be a bad thing. The Timberwolves will have no problem trotting out guys with fresh legs every night. Would you bet on the Celtics back-ups to beat Minnesota’s second unit (which will feature Williams, Barea, Tolliver, and Randolph to begin the season)? I wouldn’t.
19. Sacramento Kings
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PG/SG Tyreke Evans, SG Marcus Thornton, C DeMarcus Cousins
C-Level = SG Francisco Garcia, SF John Salmons, PF J.J. Hickson
Rookies = PG Jimmer Fredette (JIMMER!), PG Isaiah Thomas, SF Tyler Honeycutt
Reason for Optimism = Fans get to watch the oddest collection of characters since “Arrested Development”
I could probably write 3,000 words about how crazy this roster is. Jimmer must’ve thought he accidentally arrived at a halfway house when he showed up for Kings training camp. I’d like to see the go small with Jimmer and Thornton in the backcourt, Tyreke at the 3, and Cousins and Hickson working down low. None of those five guys would play defense, but the team would put up 115 per game.
18. Utah Jazz
A-Level = PF/C Al JeffersonB-Level = PG Devin Harris, PF Paul Millsap, PF Derrick Favors
C-Level = SG C.J. Miles
Rookies = C Enes Kanter, SG Alec Burks
Reason for Optimism = Great skiing!
Utah is stuck with the same issue that screwed the Lakers up last season. Their three best players (Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors) usually can’t be on the court together. Things are even more complicated when you throw rookie Enes Kanter (who is a project player) into the mix. Millsap will reportedly see a lot of time at small forward, but that would be a disaster defensively. Look for Utah to move Millsap before the trade deadline, whether they are in contention or not.
17. Golden State Warriors
A-Level = PG Stephen Curry, PG/SG Monta EllisB-Level = SF Dorell Wright, PF David Lee
C-Level = None
Rookies = SG Klay Thompson, C Jeremy Tyler, PG Charles Jenkins
Reason for Optimism = The “sent” folder on Monta Ellis’ cellphone.
Golden State will never be a contender until they move either Curry or Ellis. Neither of them can guard opposing 2-guards, which is tough when there is no one behind them to defend the rim (sorry Kwame Brown, there’s 10 years of evidence that you are not that guy). Ellis has a hint of Marbury, so he would be the guy I would try to move.
16. Denver Nuggets
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PG Ty Lawson, SG Arron Afflalo, SF Danilo Gallinari, PF Nene Hillario
C-Level = PG Andre Miller, SG Rudy Fernandez, SF Corey Brewer, PF Al Harrington, C Timofey Mozgov, C Chris Anderson
Rookies = SF Jordan Hamilton, PF Kenneth Faried
Reason for Optimism = Wilson Chandler is tearing it up right now…in China…until March…
It’s amazing that Denver traded it’s franchise player away ten months ago, and lost three guys who decided to play in China, still looks this competitive on paper. If Gallinari or Lawson make the leap to A-Level status, we could be talking about a club that lands the third seed in the western conference.
15. Houston Rockets
A-Level = NoneB-Level = PG Kyle Lowry, SG Kevin Martin, SF Chase Budinger, PF Luis Scola
C-Level = PG Goran Dragic, SG Courtney Lee
Rookies = PF Marcus Morris, SF Chandler Parsons
Reason for Optimism = If we suck, we can blame David Stern from preventing Pau Gasol and Nene joining our team.
For years, Houston has been hoarding assets. The hoarding of those assets finally appeared to pay off when the Rockets facilitated the Chris Paul trade to the Lakers. Alas, Stern vetoed the trade, Houston didn’t get Pau Gasol (and Nene, who apparently was set to join if Pau was acquired), and is now stuck with a bunch of pissed off players. As it stands now, Houston is a decent center away from being a contender in the west.
14. Orlando Magic
A-Level = C Dwight HowardB-Level = SG Jason Richardson
C-Level = PG Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Ryan Anderson, PF Glen Davis
Rookies = SF DeAndre Liggins, PF Justin Harper
Reason for Optimism = Local amusement parks.
No wonder Dwight Howard wants to leave Orlando. Big Baby was there big off-season move so far, which is even crazier when you factor in that they gave up a better player (Brandon Bass) to get him. It’s hard to tell if Orlando will stay strong in attempting to convince Howard to stay. If he does, they are looking at a four through sixth seed in the east. The earlier they trade him, the better chances of acquiring a top lottery pick. My advice for Orlando is to ship Howard out now to the highest bidder.
13. Atlanta Hawks
A-Level = SF/PF Josh SmithB-Level = SG Joe Johnson, PF/C Al Horford
C-Level = PG Jeff Teague, SG/SF Tracy McGrady, SF Marvin Williams,
Rookies = PF Keith Benson
Reason for Optimism = If the world ends next year, we won’t have to pay Joe Johnson anymore money!
I’d like Atlanta much more if they found a live body to play center, which would allow Smith and Horford to switch to the four and three. They don’t have enough size to exploit a team like Miami, and not enough athleticism to hang with Chicago. The only hope for the Hawks is Jeff Teague. If he becomes a consistent top-15 point guard, Atlanta has the big guns to hang with the elite teams of the east.
12. San Antonio Spurs
A-Level = SG Manu GinobiliB-Level = PF/C Tim Duncan, PG Tony Parker
C-Level = SG Gary Neal, PF Matt Bonner, C DeJuan Blair, C Tiago Splitter
Rookies = SF Kawhi Leonard, PG Cory Joseph
Reason for Optimism = Due to end up with the top pick in the draft and pick a seven-footer that will be a cornerstone of the franchise for 15 years.
If there was ever a team that was not constructed to play 66 games in 120 days, it would be this one. San Antonio is going to need major contributions from Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter to hang in the playoff race out west. That’s the only way the burden can be taken off of the very old foundation. Don’t be surprised if the long rumored Tony Parker trade finally comes to fruition this season.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
A-Level = SG Kobe Bryant, PF/C Pau GasolB-Level = C Andrew Bynum (suspended first four games)
C-Level = PG Derek Fisher, SF Matt Barnes, SF Metta World Peace, PF Josh McRoberts, PF/C Troy Murphy
F-Level = SF Luke Walton
Rookies = PG Darius Morris, SG Andrew Goudelock, PF Ater Majok
Reason for Optimism = Stem cells.
Here’s another team not constructed to play a sprint schedule. Los Angeles has slowly morphed into one of the least athletic teams in the league. Losing Lamar Odom (one of the most versatile players in the league who could also handle the ball) is a killer for a club that has a gaping hole at point guard. They’ll be dangerous in the playoffs regardless of seed. It’s just a matter of keeping Kobe, Pau, and Bynum healthy.
10. New York Knicks
A-Level = SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Amar’e StoudemireB-Level = C Tyson Chandler, PG Baron Davis (out for probably the first month with a back injury)
C-Level = PG/SG Toney Douglas, SG Landry Fields
F-Level = PG Mike Bibby’s Rotting Corpse, I Mean, PG Mike Bibby (it’s hard to tell he’s still alive sometimes)
Rookies = SG Iman Shumpert, C Josh Harrellson
Reason for Optimism = No point guard, no problem! (they hope)
I’d like the Knicks so much more if they had Lebron James instead of Carmelo. Anthony will be asked to be primary distributor of the ball (at least until Baron Davis is healthy), which is a role he has never had. For the most part, he’s been a ball-stopping isolation player his entire career. It will be interesting to see if he has the ability and mind-set to do it. He’ll need to shoulder the load in order to keep Amar’e and his shaky knees healthy through the season.
9. Portland Trail Blazers
A-Level = PF LaMarcus AldridgeB-Level = PG Raymond Felton, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Gerald Wallace, C Marcus Camby, PG/SG Jamal Crawford
C-Level = C Kurt Thomas, C Greg Oden, C Greg Oden’s Penis
Rookies = PG Nolan Smith, SG Jon Diebler, SF Tanguy Ngombo
Reason for Optimism = Brandon Roy (may his basketball career R.I.P.) is no longer being paid $1, much less $18 million.
I really like Portland’s top-6, but have concerns about the rest of the bench. Nolan Smith needs to give 15 Eric Maynor-like minutes a night to stabilize the second unit. If they can get anything out of Greg Oden come playoff time, Portland will boast the deepest group of bigs in the western conference.
8. Boston Celtics
A-Level = SF Paul PierceB-Level = PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, PF Kevin Garnett
C-Level = SG Marquis Daniels, PF Brandon Bass, C Jermaine O’Neal, C Chris Wilcox
Rookies = SG E’twaun Moore, PF JaJuan Johnson
Reason for Optimism = The Patriots beat Tebow!
Boston failed to trade for Chris Paul, and pissed off Rondo in the process (not sure how he’ll react to that, although things have gone well in the pre-season so far). David West spurned them and instead signed with the Pacers. The only positive move for the Celtics was upgrading from Big Baby to Brandon Bass (and saving a few bucks in the process). The Celtics would be wise to take it easy in the regular season to keep the Big 4 healthy, and then run at full strength during the playoffs. They will need all four guys playing at their best to have any shot of winning the title.
7. Indiana Pacers
A-Level = SF Danny GrangerB-Level = PG Darren Collison, SG Paul George, PF David West, C Roy Hibbert
C-Level = PG/SG George Hill, PF Tyler Hansbrough, C Jeff Foster
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = Pieces are in place
I’m predicting that the Pacers will be my NBA version of the Milwaukee Brewers (I loved them in my MLB preview last spring). There isn’t an overwhelming amount of depth, but I really like their 8-man rotation. David West’s arrival filled a gaping hole in the post, and allows Roy Hibbert to focus more on playing tough defense and cleaning up on the offensive glass. The only things that could derail them is a Danny Granger injury (he’s had a few during his career) and a David West injury (he’ll be a season removed from an ACL tear while trying to play 66 games in 120 days). If health is in their favor, watch out for the Pacers.
6. Dallas Mavericks
A-Level = PF Dirk NowitzkiB-Level = PG Jason Kidd, SG Vince Carter, SG Jason Terry, SF Shawn Marion, SF/PF Lamar Odom
C-Level = PG Delonte West, C Brendan Haywood
Rookies = None
Reason for Optimism = We’re the defending champs bitch!
The more I think about it, I really like how Mark Cuban and his people put their title-defending team together. There’s the ability to play big or small (having Kidd-Terry-Carter-Dirk-Odom out on the court at the same time could be the fastest bunch of old dudes in NBA history), and have tons of shooters to surround Nowitzki. The Mavericks’ chance at a title hinge largely on how well Brendan Haywood can fill the void left by Tyson Chandler. A repeat is unlikely, but look for the Mavericks to be stronger than the experts think. Either way, Dallas has done a nice job building a competitive team along with cap space for next year’s free agent class.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
A-Level = PG Chris Paul, PF Blake GriffinB-Level = PG/SG Chauncey Billups, PG Mo Williams, SF Caron Butler, C DeAndre Jordan
C-Level = PG/SG Randy Foye, PG/SG Eric Bledsoe, SF Ryan Gomes, C Reggie Evans
Rookies = SG Travis Leslie, PF Trey Thompkins
Reason for Optimism = Blake Griffin, Year 2: Lob City.
The Clippers are a really good that are a minor tweak or two away from being great. Their Achilles heal appears to be the ability to guard opposing 2-guards. Asking the combination of Paul/Billups/Williams/Foye do it for 48 minutes is a tall order. Moving Mo Williams to a team for a guy like O.J. Mayo would make a whole lot of sense. In addition, shipping Eric Bledsoe out for an additional big-man (Bill Simmons talked about how Anderson Varejao would be an excellent back-up for both Griffin and Jordan) would give this team depth across the board. Look for the Clippers to be very active before the trade deadline. Even after the Chris Paul trade, they have plenty of moveable parts left.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
A-Level = PF Zach RandolphB-Level = SF Rudy Gay, C Marc Gasol, PG Mike Conley, SG Tony Allen, SG O.J. Mayo
C-Level = PG Greivis Vazquez, SF Sam Young, PF Darrell Arthur (injured to start the year), PF Mikki Moore
Reason for Optimism = The return of Rudy Gay to a club that nearly made the Western Conference Finals last year without him.
There isn’t a more underrated front-line in the NBA than Gay-Randolph-Gasol. All three are athletic, all of them can hammer the glass, and all three can score when the opportunity is there. The ceiling of the Grizzlies will be decided by whether or not they move O.J. Mayo, and what they get back in return. Personally, I think they should keep him as their sixth man and try to have him fill a Jason Terry-like role. Last year’s playoff run wasn’t a fluke. The Grizzlies are for real.
3. Chicago Bulls
A-Level = PG Derrick RoseB-Level = C Joakim Noah, PF Carlos Boozer, SF Luol Deng, SG Richard Hamilton, PF Taj Gibson
C-Level = SG Ronnie Brewer, SF Kyle Korver
F-Level = PF Brian Scalabrine
Rookies = SF Jimmy Butler
Reason for Optimism = We finally have a 2-guard that can do stuff!
The reason Miami overwhelmed the Bulls after Chicago’s Game 1 win in the Eastern Conference Finals was the inability of anyone other than Derrick Rose to create their own shot. Chicago has two potential sources of alternate offense this season. The obvious first choice is Richard Hamilton, who has spent the past two seasons in purgatory on the putrid Pistons. It’s unclear how much (if anything) Hamilton has left in the tank, but the early returns in pre-season have been good. The other source is the return to form of Carlos Boozer. Boozer battled injuries all last season, which eventually led to a loss in confidence during the postseason. By the time the Bulls entered the playoffs Taj Gibson was a much more effective player. Boozer has also looked great so far in pre-season, giving hope to Bulls fans that they will finally have the interior scoring they thought they were getting when they signed Boozer in the summer of 2010.
2. Miami Heat
A-Level = SG Dwyane Wade, SF Lebron JamesB-Level = PF Chris Bosh
C-Level = PG Mario Chalmers, SG-SF Shane Battier, SF Mike Miller, PF Udonis Haslem
Rookies = PG Norris Cole
Reason for Optimism = Not as much of the country hates the Heat as they did last year.
The same depth issues Miami dealt with last season still exist today, but this appears to be the team in pole position to benefit from the return of the players stuck in China. Joel Anthony doesn’t strike fear in anyone (except Lebron when he sets up Anthony with a perfect look-pass only to see Anthony fumble it out of bounds), but imagine if they can add Kenyon Martin for the final month of the year and the playoffs? One of the China guys is going to take less money for a shot at a ring. The only thing that will keep Miami out of the Eastern Conference Finals is the health of Dwyane Wade.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
A-Level = SF Kevin Durant, PG Russell WestbrookB-Level = SG James Harden, PF/C Serge Ibaka, C Kendrick Perkins
C-Level = PG Eric Maynor, SG Thabo Sefolosha, SF Daequan Cook, PF Nick Collison, C Nazr Mohammed
Rookies = SG Reggie Jackson (not the MLB Hall-of-Famer)
Reason for Optimism = If there ever was a team prepared to play 66 games in 120 days, it’s this one.
Oklahoma has so many things going in it’s favor this season that I’ll list all of them in their own bullet point.
-
If James Harden makes the leap to superstardom (which a few
experts think is a possibility), the Thunder will be the only team with three
elite scorers on its roster.
-
Except for Perkins, Collison, and Mohammed, there isn’t a dude
over 25 years old on this team. Young legs will take you far this year.
-
There isn’t a more flexible team in the league right now.
These guys can beat you big or small.
-
Eric Maynor would be starting for at least 10 other teams. I’d
like to see the Thunder put him and Westbrook in the same backcourt. Imagine a
small-ball line up of Maynor-Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka? Yikes.
-
A full-season of Perkins means a full-season of Serge Ibaka
racking up vicious weak-side blocks.
The only underlying plot that will prevent Oklahoma
City from reaching it’s potential is the alpha dog battle between Durant and
Westbrook. At some point, Westbrook has to accept that he is Robin to Durant’s
Batman. If they can get to the point where they are running the pick and roll
together, there will be no stopping Oklahoma City from winning the 2012 NBA
Championship.
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