Monday, August 29, 2011

2011 NFC East Preview

4. Washington Redskins



2010 Record = 6-10 (4th in Division)
Key Additions = DT Barry Cofield, CB Josh Wilson, DE Stephen Bowen, G Sean Locklear, RB Tim Hightower
Key Losses = QB Donovan McNabb, CB Carlos Rogers

Schedule = Giants, Cardinals, @ Cowboys, @ Rams, BYE, Eagles, @ Panthers, @ Bills, 49ers, @ Dolphins, Cowboys, @ Seahawks, Jets, Patriots, @ Giants, Vikings, @ Eagles


Real-Life Outlook = I don’t feel like wasting too much time on this crummy team, so I’ll keep this real brief…the Redskins stink.

Fantasy Outlook = If you have John Beck or Rex Grossman starting for you at some point this season, than something must’ve gone terribly wrong for your fantasy team. Santana Moss is the most reliable fantasy asset Washington employs. You won’t be very excited to draft him, but he’s a very solid third wide receiver option. Mike Shanahan is notorious for constantly swapping out runningbacks. While Tim Hightower has been announced as the starter, rookie Roy Helu should be drafted in the final third of your draft. Eventually Shanahan will figure out the that Tim Hightower is limited to doing Tim Hightower sort of things, so he will eventually go with the player with more upside.

Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. New York Giants



2010 Record = 10-6 (2nd in Division)
Key Additions = C David Baas
Key Losses = DT Barry Cofield, WR Steve Smith, TE Kevin Boss

Schedule = @ Redskins, Rams, @ Eagles, @ Cardinals, Seahawks, Bills, BYE, Dolphins, @ Patriots, @ 49ers, Eagles, @ Saints, Packers, @ Cowboys, Redskins, @ Jets, Cowboys


Real-Life Outlook = There wasn’t a more accident-prone team in the NFC last season than the New York Giants (San Diego was their counterpart in the AFC). Eli Manning set a career high in passing yards, but also tossed a career high 25 interceptions. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were productive in terms of yardage, but killed too many drives with critical fumbles. Special teams were the silent killer, with DeSean Jackson’s punt return last December delivering the finishing blow to the Giants season. Throw in a slew of injuries to their secondary during the preseason (no team has lost more key contributors in exhibition games), and I just don’t like New York’s chances this season. This feels like a team that will have an uneven season that will result in Head Coach Tom Coughlin finally getting canned (I know he won a Super Bowl, but Coughlin lost the locker room two years ago. It’s time for a change).    

Fantasy Outlook = When you think of high flying offenses, the New York Giants don’t immediately come to mind, but all the pieces are there. As mentioned before, Eli Manning broke the 4,000-yard barrier last season. He’s a great option to use if you plan on having a quarterback platoon. Sure he turns the ball over a ton, but depending on your league scoring settings, that may not be a huge issue in the fantasy game. Ahmad Bradshaw resigned with New York after briefly flirting with other teams. As long as he hangs on to the ball, I expect him to take on even more of the workload as Brandon Jacobs continues to slow down. Hakeem Nicks is a great option to add in the third round at wide receiver. If he stays healthy, a line of 95-1400-12 is not out of the question. No Credentials is also all-in on Mario Manningham. Expect him to fill the role that the other Steve Smith filled brilliantly before blowing out his knee last season (a role that led to the other Steve Smith catching over 100 passes in 2009).

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9

2. Philadelphia Eagles



2010 Record = 10-6 (1st in Division, Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Packers)
Key Additions = CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Domonic Rodgers-Cromartie, DE Cullen Jenkins, DE Jason Babin, WR Steve Smith, T Ryan Harris, RB Ronnie Brown
Key Losses = S Quintin Mikell, LB Stewart Bradley, K David Akers

Schedule = @ Rams, @ Falcons, Giants, 49ers, @ Bills, @ Redskins, BYE, Cowboys, Bears, Cardinals, @ Giants, Patriots, @ Seahawks, @ Dolphins, Jets, @ Cowboys, Redskins


Real-Life Outlook = For those of you who have anointed the Eagles as the Miami Heat of the NFL, sit down for a second. Take a deep breath. Relax. This team is not going to be the ’85 Bears. Philadelphia is bringing back an entire offense that for other than the fourth quarter against the Giants, was shut down during the final month of the season and their home playoff game against Green Bay. Certainly their off-season moves were huge, but this is still a team with holes. The Eagles have put together the best trio of cornerbacks the NFL has seen in a long time, but safety is a major issue with Quintin Mikell going to St. Louis. Philadelphia will be able to bottle up most wide receivers, but they’ll have a tough time defending players like Jason Witten. The offensive line is average (Vick has been running for his life so far in the pre-season, which is the same thing he was doing during the final month of last season). This will inevitably lead to Michael Vick missing a few games at some point during the season. As long as Vick is healthy enough to start 12 games, this team will make the playoffs (and still be one of the favorites to win the NFC), but No Credentials is boldly predicting that Vick’s future injury issues will keep Philadelphia from winning the division.

Fantasy Outlook = Some of you might look at the previous paragraph and think that I’m down on Vick for fantasy, but that isn’t the case. Vick went fourth in the No Credentials mock draft. You need to invest in a solid second-string if you draft him, but Vick’s per-game output is enough value that even 12 games of Vick will be better than 16 games of any other fantasy QB.
            The fantasy discussion does not end at quarterback for Philadelphia. LeSean McCoy appears to be poised for a monster season. If you are in a PPR league, feel free to take him as high as 5th. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin should both be drafted as #2 fantasy receivers. Jackson is more explosive (upgrade him if you are in a league that gives bonuses for going over 100 yards, 150 yards, ect.), but Maclin is steadier and generally more consistent. Jason Avant should also be drafted in the event that one of those two suffers an injury. Brent Celek is a solid tight end, but didn’t click with Vick (hey that rhymed) during 2010. If those two figure it out, Celek represents a great buy later in the draft if you miss out on the elite tight ends. 

Ceiling = 15-1 (totally dependant on the health of Michael Vick)

Floor = 9-7 (totally dependant on Wonderlic legend Vince Young takes too many snaps)
No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

1. Dallas Cowboys



2010 Record = 6-10 (3rd in Division)
Key Additions = S Abram Elam
Key Losses = RB Marion Barber, WR Roy Williams, DE Stephen Bowen, G Leonard Davis, C Andre Gurode

Schedule = @ Jets, @ 49ers, Redskins, Lions, BYE, @ Patriots, Rams, @ Eagles, Seahawks, Bills, @ Redskins, Dolphins, @ Cardinals, Giants, @ Buccaneers, Eagles, @ Giants


Real-Life Outlook = This is a homer pick, but I feel better about it because my Dad (who loathes the Cowboys) also predicts that they will win the division (this mostly has to do with the combined Wonderlic scores of Vick and Vince Young. Maybe one day I’ll let him post a rant about those two on this blog). It’s hard to tell who’s shed more dead weight in the last nine months, Snooki or the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones finally admitted he was wrong by letting go of Roy Williams (keep in mind that Jerry traded away three draft picks for Williams, and then signed him to a $35 million extension). Marion Barber, who has been a warrior but also was vastly overpaid before having ankle issues, has also been released. Dallas even shed a couple of over-priced offensive linemen in Andre Gurode and Leonard Davis. There is a strong case to be made that Dallas will see significant addition by subtraction. Throw in a healthy Tony Romo playing under Head Coach Jason Garrett (Dallas went 5-3 under Garrett last season with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee playing quarterback) with four games against the entire NFC West, and things are looking up for the Cowboys. I’m not signing off on them as a Super Bowl contender, but they have enough talent (and a favorable enough schedule) to steal a division win from Philadelphia.

Fantasy Outlook = Tony Romo is the last of the elite-7 fantasy quarterbacks, but with Peyton Manning’s neck concerns, he might end up as the sixth QB taken in your draft. He can be a little streaky (be prepared for a few games where he gives you eight points or less), but when he’s rolling there aren’t many more productive fantasy quarterbacks. Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are all elite receiving options that will be off the board between the third and fifth rounds. Bryant has the most touchdown potential, while Austin and Witten will be the steadiest in terms of receptions. I would not be shocked if all three went over 1,000 yards receiving. Kevin Ogletree shouldn’t be drafted, but keep an eye on him if one of the two starters suffers an injury. Felix Jones has gotten so much hype the past two weeks that his Yahoo rank has gone from 66 to 39. He’s looked sharp in the pre-season, and has the talent to deliver 1,300 rushing yards and another 500 through the air. You should feel very fortunate if you can grab him in the early part of the fourth round or later.

Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5


the AFC North
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC North
the NFC South
the NFC West

Thursday, August 25, 2011

More Appropriate Names for Hurricane Irene

            I don’t know about all of you, but I can’t read enough about Hurricane Irene. Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore hasn’t been this excited since Kate Winslet took her top off in “Titanic”, and quite frankly, neither am I (quick tangent here…VH1 has aired “Titanic seven times in the last week. Do you realize that with commercials, this movie takes four and a half hours to air on cable? It was on from 9 pm to 1:30 am last Saturday. My fiancĂ©e has watched parts of it three different times to try to catch the whole thing. When a movie takes that long to air, it’s probably wise to keep it on pay-cable so that way the television in the Muir house can be on more important things, like sports). Part of me wonders if Irene is pissed off because it doesn’t have a very menacing name. Irene should be the name of your local librarian or dental hygienist, not a category three hurricane bearing down on the northeast. Perhaps we have “A Boy Named Sue” situation on our hands.
            With that in mind, I’ve decided to list a series of things we should rename Hurricane Irene. If this storm is going to be as badass as experts are predicting, than it should be given a more memorable moniker. I’ll put the names in several different categories.

Super-Villains


Hurricane Bane

Hurricane Luthor
Hurricane Kardashian (they all count as super villains in my book)
Hurricane Bowser
Hurricane Favre
Hurricane Drago
Hurricane Stuffed-Crust Pizza (my digestive system nominated this one)
Hurricane Lebron
Hurricane Snooki (earns this status thanks to her shenanigans during Season 4)
Hurricane Voldemort
Hurricane Shredder
Hurricane Newman
Hurricane Borg
Hurricane Hannibal
Hurricane Beck

Deceased Actors/Musicians/Celebrities


Hurricane Dio
Hurricane Ledger
Hurricane Michael Jackson (the King of Pop deserves his full name on a hurricane)
Hurricane Hendrix
Hurricane Dean
Hurricane Monroe
Hurricane John Wayne (another worthy of a full name)
Hurricane Farley
Hurricane Macho Man

Corporations That Went Bankrupt


Hurricane Borders
Hurricane Sears
Hurricane Enron
Hurricane Blockbuster (I think we have our clubhouse favorite)
Hurricane Chrysler

Chuck Norris


Hurricane Chuck Norris (new clubhouse favorite)

Infamous Individuals


Hurricane Manson
Hurricane O.J.
Hurricane Casey Anthony (having a monster hurricane named after her would give women everywhere even more reason to hate her).
Hurricane Bundy
Hurricane Nixon

Porn Legends


Hurricane Diggler
Hurricane Jameson
Hurricane Pam and Tommy (No Cred determined that we can’t split them)

Iconic Movie Characters


Hurricane Spicoli
Hurricane Yoda
Hurricane Montana
Hurricane Rainman
Hurricane Dirty Harry
Hurricane Wooderson
Hurricane Cameron Powe (maybe “Con-Air” isn’t iconic to the masses, but it is in my book)
Hurricane Maverick
Hurricane Ripley
Hurricane Rocky


            All kidding aside, this storm looks like it’s going to be a big deal. Stay safe everyone.

























  





    

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

2011 NFC North Preview

4. Chicago Bears


2010 Record = 11-5, 1st in Division (Lost NFC Championship Game vs. Packers)
Key Additions = RB Marion Barber, WR Roy Williams, DT Amobi Akoye, C Chris Spencer
Key Losses = C Olin Kreutz, S Daniel Manning, DT Tommie Harris

Schedule = Falcons, @ Saints, Packers, Panthers, @ Lions, Vikings, @ Buccaneers, BYE, @ Eagles, Lions, Chargers, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Broncos, Seahawks, @ Packers, @ Vikings


Real-Life Outlook = Chicago was one of the greatest smoke and mirrors team we’ve seen in a long time in 2010. Despite the inability to block for Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and lack of a number one receiver, the Bears still were able to steal a division championship. They even had the good fortune of getting the Seahawks at home in the divisional round, while top-seeded Atlanta got stuck dealing with Green Bay (we all know how that turned out). The clock finally struck midnight for the Bears against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, and I’m willing to bet that Chicago will not be so lucky this season. Any team that gives up as many sacks as Chicago is bound for a disastrous season. Everyone likes to rag on Cutler, but it will be the shoddy players blocking for him that will undo this team.

Fantasy Outlook = Cutler has the talent to be an elite fantasy quarterback (he was an elite QB during his last season in Denver), but his supporting cast relegates him to back-up duty in the fantasy game. Matt Forte is a name to consider in PPR leagues, but don’t be shocked if Marion Barber steals goal line carries. All relevant Bears’ wide outs should be drafted, as the potential is there for one of them to break out. So far Roy Williams has been the most impressive in training camp, but also keep an eye on Johnny Knox and Devin Hester.

Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11

3. Minnesota Vikings



2010 Record = 6-10, 4th in Division
Key Additions = QB Donovan McNabb, T Charlie Johnson
Key Losses = WR Sidney Rice, DE Ray Edwards, QB Brett Favre, T Bryant McKinnie, LB Ben Leber, S Madieu Williams

Schedule = @ Chargers, Buccaneers, Lions, @ Chiefs, Cardinals, @ Bears, Packers, @ Panthers, BYE, @ Packers, Raiders, @ Falcons, Broncos, @ Lions, Saints, @ Redskins, Bears


Real-Life Outlook = Minnesota’s 2010 campaign was just like Chicago’s, except it was the exact opposite. It’s a shame the 2010 Vikings weren’t around eight years ago, because ESPN could’ve saved money on filming “Playmakers” and just followed the Vikings around for four months. Fortunately for Vikings’ fans, things are looking up. Gone is quarterback Brett Favre (and Brett Favre’s cellphone). Gone is Brad Childress and his horrendous play-calling, decision making, and creepy look of a guy that could show up on one of NBC’s “To Catch a Predator” specials. Gone is the hole in The Metrodome’s roof (watch this video to see how excited Jared Allen is to play there again). I’m expecting the Vikings to be a much more run oriented football team this season, which will mean big things from Adrian Peterson. Depending on how well the defense plays (their secondary still appears to be a major concern), this could be a team that makes a surprise run at a wildcard spot. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.    

Fantasy Outlook = With the offense getting lost in the hands of Brett Favre the past two seasons, it seemed like Minnesota forgot they employed arguably the most talented back in the NFL. No Credentials is expecting a huge year from AP (as evidenced by his status as the first pick in the No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft, sponsored by Prompto. Need an oil change? Go to Prompto Baby!). Unless the league you’re in awards points for hand-offs, don’t rely on Donovan McNabb as your regular starter. Percy Harvin has been migraine free for months now, and is the clear #1 receiver going into the season. If he can stay healthy, don’t be shocked if catches 80 passes for 1,100 yards.

Ceiling = 11-5
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9

2. Detroit Lions



2010 Record = 6-10, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = LB Stephen Tulloch, LB Justin Durant, CB Eric Wright, RB Jerome Harrison
Key Losses = LB Julian Peterson

Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Chiefs, @ Vikings, @ Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Falcons, @ Broncos, BYE, @ Bears, Panthers, Packers, @ Saints, Vikings, @ Raiders, Chargers, @ Packers


Real-Life Outlook = No beaten down fan base should have more reason for optimism than the fans of the Detroit Lions. After nearly a decade of futility under Matt Millen (remember Millen taking a wide receiver in the first round three straight seasons?), the franchise finally looks like it has a sense of direction. Their defensive tackle tandem has a chance to be the best interior line pair for the next decade. Behind the two behemoths, the Lions have shored up their linebacking corps. Detroit is one solid corner away from having a top-5 defense.

            Offensively, the success of this team hinges entirely on whether or not the offensive line can help keep Matthew Stafford’s shoulders in their sockets. Stafford has suffered three separated shoulders so far during his NFL career. He flashed tremendous upside when healthy last season (6 touchdown passes to only one interception), so keeping him healthy and upright is of utmost importance. All in all, while I expect Detroit to be a tough team to play week in and week out, look for 2012 to be the year the Lions bust into the playoff picture.
Fantasy Outlook = Calvin Johnson is the one sure-fire fantasy stud employed by the Lions. A healthy Stafford for 16 games should propel Megatron to a career season, and maybe even the best fantasy year for a wide receiver in 2011. Stafford is a great player to target if you plan on using two quarterbacks (and picking the one with the best match-up week to week) throughout the season. Jahvid Best has the talent to deliver a similar statistical line to what LeSean McCoy put up last season, but be prepared for an injury or two to keep him out of action. He’s a very risky option as your second runningback.

Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Green Bay Packers



2010 Record = 10-6, 2nd in Division (Won Super Bowl)
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = DE Cullen Jenkins, LB Nick Barnett, G Daryn Colledge

Schedule = Saints, @ Panthers, @ Bears, Broncos, @ Falcons, Rams, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, @ Giants, Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bears, Lions


Real-Life Outlook = It would’ve been more accurate for me to list all of the players that the Packers won the Super Bowl without last season because of injuries as key additions. Green Bay was without Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, and Charles Woodson by the time the Super Bowl ended. Green Bay is still one of the youngest teams in the league, with a core that is poised to enter it’s prime. The best thing that’s happened for the Packers is all the hoopla surrounding the Philadelphia Eagles and their off-season additions. It’s not often that a defending Super Bowl champion gets to fly under the radar.

Fantasy Outlook = Aaron Rodgers will be the second quarterback taken in your fantasy draft (unless you’re league is full of dog lovers, then he will probably go first). He’ll come off the board sometime before pick 10. 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns is not an outlandish prediction for a quarterback of Rodgers talent combined with the resources he has to work with. Greg Jennings should come off the board anywhere from picks 21 through 30. Jermichael Finley had his breakout 2010 campaign shut down by a knee injury, but appears fully healthy coming into this season. Finley is ranked as the second best tight end in fantasy by No Credentials. Jordy Nelson and James Jones should also be drafted as bye-week subs.
            The most interesting battle in Green Bay’s training camp/pre-season is the competition between Ryan Grant and James Starks for the starting runningback gig. Grant was a workhorse for the Packers ever since assuming the starting role halfway through the 2007 season, but blew his knee out in the first game of 2010. Starks was used sparingly until week 15, but was a monster during Green Bay’s improbable Super Bowl run. If you can, it would be wise to draft both of them and see which one emerges as the most productive player. Green Bay will have plenty of red-zone scoring opportunities. Personally, I would prefer to take Starks in round 9 or 10 as opposed to taking Grant in round 4 or 5.

Ceiling = 15-1
Floor = 11-5
No Credentials Prediction = 14-2

the AFC North
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC South
the NFC West

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Rounds 2-3 of the No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft

     Here’s rounds two and three of our mock draft. My friend Ethan was again along for the ride to have the final say on odd numbered teams, while I handled the even-numbered squads. If you missed Round 1 of the mock, click here.

Team 12, aka “Just Win Baby”

Pick 13 = Darren McFadden, RB, RaidersHe probably should be trusted more based off of his breakout last season. If healthy, has top-5 RB potential in PPR leagues.

Team 11, aka “Wandering Bear”
Pick 14 = Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers – No Credentials is all in on Philip Rivers this year. If somehow you are able to draft him in the third round, there’s a good chance you will win your league.

Team 10, aka “Twinning”
Pick 15 = Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions – One of these years, Megatron is going to put up 120 receptions with 1,600 receiving yards. If Stafford stays healthy (admittedly, a huge if), 2011 could be the year.

Team 9, aka “Hair”
Pick 16 = Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – Ethan wanted to take Brady at 14 until I talked him into Rivers. Even 16 seems high to me, but ESPN’s Matthew Berry has Brady ranked at 11 on his big board.

Team 8, aka “YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME”
Pick 17 = Michael Turner, RB, Falcons – Ethan was about to have an aneurysm because Turner was still on the board, so we finally took him at 17. I’m really down on him this season. He’s had a decent three-year run, but excess weight is bound to get the best of him eventually. Turner’s stock is lowered considerably in PPR leagues, as his pass catching ability is somewhere between poor and horrendous.

FANTASY TIP 2.1 = KNOW WHAT YOUR LEAGUE’S SCORING RULES ARE – This sounds fairly straightforward, but you would be surprised how many people don’t know whether or not a passing touchdown is worth four or six points in their league. Understanding the scoring nuances of your league will allow you to adjust a player’s value accordingly going into the draft. Turner is a great example of this. He’s ranked in the top 10 right now on Yahoo!, but that ranking is based off of a non-PPR league. If you are playing in a PPR, don’t be the schmuck that drafts Michael Turner at #8.

Team 7, aka “Sponge Worthy”
Pick 18 = Drew Brees, QB, Saints – 22 interceptions last season was a major anomaly. New Orleans’ improved rushing attack should allow Brees to take better care of the ball.

Team 6, aka “F*** the Constitution”
Pick 19 = Frank Gore, RB, 49ers – Gore has this nasty habit of missing multiple games every year, but when he’s healthy there aren’t many runningbacks in PPR leagues. An improved offensive line gives Gore a shot at 2,000 total yards.

Team 5, aka “R.I.P. AIM”
Pick 20 = Steven Jackson, RB, Rams – Jackson is a solid back who has been the victim of being surrounded by shoddy talent the past three years. If Sam Bradford can take a step forward, Jackson could score double-digit touchdowns.

Team 4, aka “In My Time of Dying”
Pick 21 = Greg Jennings, WR, Packers – My favorite second tier wide receiver, Jennings will benefit greatly from the return of Jermichael Finley.

Team 3, aka “The Great White Hope”
Pick 22 = Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns – Ethan isn’t as scared of The Madden Curse as I am (check out my AFC North preview for more details).

Team 2, aka “We Support Your War on Terror”
Pick 23 = Peyton Manning, QB, Colts – Manning might be rusty the first game or two, but if he puts up numbers similar to his 2008 production (when he missed all of the preseason after having an infection in his knee), you’ll be happy at season’s end.

Team 1, aka “The Dark Knight”
Pick 24 = Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts – Wayne was a certified fantasy team assassin in 2009, but bounced back with over 100 catches last season.

Team 1, aka “The Butler”
Pick 25 = Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys – Miles managed to be productive even with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee throwing him the ball last season, and Roy Williams lining up on the opposite side of the field. With a healthy Romo, and Dez Bryant as the full-time #2, expect big things. I should also note that I lobbied for my son to be named Miles, so you should take any No Credentials advice about him with a grain of salt.
Current Roster = RB Adrian Peterson, WR Reggie Wayne, WR Miles Austin

Team 2, aka “I Need a Post-Up Game”
Pick 26 = Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants – I’m not all-in on the Nicks bandwagon, but he will have a chance to crack 90 receptions with the other Steve Smith out of town.
Current Roster = RB Jamaal Charles, QB Peyton Manning, WR Hakeem Nicks

Team 3, aka “The High Life”
Pick 27 = Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars – Ethan was adamant that this team should draft a third runningback at this point. I probably replaced him after this pick, but we’ll see how a team built around three backs will do.
Current Roster = RB Arian Foster, RB Peyton Hillis, RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Team 4, aka “Good Times Bad Times”
Pick 28 = Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers – A full-year of Jackson (his first in the post-Tomlinson era) could be huge. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he ends up as the most valuable receiver in fantasy. In retrospect, I would’ve signed off on him going at 21 instead of Jennings.
Current Roster = QB Michael Vick, WR Greg Jennings, WR Vincent Jackson

Team 5, aka “That’s My Quarterback (sniffle, sniffle)”
Pick 29 = Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys – The last of the elite fantasy quarterbacks (emphasis on fantasy) comes off the board.
Current Roster = RB Chris Johnson, RB Steven Jackson, QB Tony Romo

Team 6, aka “Job Security”
Pick 30 = Antonio Gates, TE, ChargersWhen healthy, Gates is far and away the best tight end in the game. In retrospect, it would make more sense for a team with one of the elite seven QBs to draft him (as it’s much easier to come up with a runningback or wide receiver who emerges either late in the draft or off the waiver wire).
Current Roster = WR Andre Johnson, RB Frank Gore, TE Antonio Gates

Team 7, aka “60 Minutes”
Pick 31 = Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers – No Credentials hasn’t liked a Steelers’ wide receiver this much since Yancey Thigpen in 1995. I wrote during round 1 of the mock that I think Pittsburgh will run the ball more this season, but that won’t hurt Wallace at all. If anything, that will option up a few play-action fly patterns for Wallace to run.
Current Roster = RB Ray Rice, QB Drew Brees, WR Mike Wallace

Team 8, aka “Krayzee Eyez Killah”
Pick 32 = Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs – I’m not crazy about Bowe this season (mostly due to his quarterback, read the AFC West preview for more details), but Bowe will go sometime in the third round in all drafts. You shouldn’t expect him to duplicate 2010’s touchdown total, but he could increase his receptions.
Current Roster = QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Michael Turner, WR Dwayne Bowe

Team 9, aka “The Enigma”
Pick 33 = Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys – The first risky/reckless/hardcore homer pick of the No Credentials mock. As long as Bryant stays away from malls, Bryant is a lock to score 10 touchdowns (or more) this season.
Current Roster = RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tom Brady, WR Dez Bryant

FANTASY TIP 2.2 = ONE HOMER PICK IS OKAY, TWO OR MORE IS A PROBLEM – Having one guy off of your fantasy team is fine in my book, but two or more can frustrate the hell out of you. A couple of years ago I had one team that had Romo, Marion Barber (who I traded for), Jason Witten (who I also traded for), and Miles Austin (who I picked up off the free agent list after he torched Kansas City for 250 yards). Things were going just fine with this set-up until Dallas traveled to Green Bay, and those four players scored a combined 13 fantasy points. It was brutal. Not only did my real life favorite football team embarrass itself, it also caused my fantasy team to be an embarrassment. From then forward I vowed not to invest too heavily into the Cowboys.

Team 10, aka “Herbal Frontier”
Pick 34 = Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants – I’m not crazy about Bradshaw, but he’s a solid PPR runningback who should continue to see the bulk of the carries as Brandon Jacobs continues to slow down.
Current Roster = WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Calvin Johnson, RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Team 11, aka “Cougar Hunters”
Pick 35 = DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles – The best home run hitter in the NFL, Jackson will have monster games and dud games throughout the season. Just know that going in before you take him.
Current Roster = WR Roddy White, QB Philip Rivers, WR DeSean Jackson

Team 12, aka “Ward Burton”
Pick 36 = Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins – I talked myself and Ethan into reaching on Marshall because I really believe that his head will be in the right place know that he’s properly medicated, but quarterback situation in Miami (barring a miracle trade to bring in Carson Palmer) will hurt his production. Marshall probably should’ve gone ten or fifteen picks later.
Current Roster = RB Rashard Mendenhall, RB Darren McFadden, WR Brandon Marshall

Thursday, August 18, 2011

2011 AFC North Preview

This is our first division that gets to play the entire NFC West. Blame inflated win projections for the top three teams on that.

4. Cincinnati Bengals



2010 Record = 4-12, 4th in Division
Key Additions = LB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements
Key Losses = QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Ochocinco, WR Terrell Owens, CB Johnathan Joseph

Schedule = @ Browns, @ Broncos, 49ers, Bills, @ Jaguars, Colts, BYE, @ Seahawks, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Ravens, Browns, @ Steelers, Texans, @ Rams, Cardinals, Ravens


Real-Life Outlook = I don’t know exactly what the record is for teams that started a red-headed rookie at quarterback, but I feel like it’s probably not very good. Kudos to the folks down in Cincinnati for completely overturning the roster (except for the part where they haven’t moved Carson Palmer yet. Wouldn’t a couple of draft picks be worth more than quarterback who has no intention of playing for you ever again? Palmer’s value will only drop the longer he doesn’t play. Remember this when the Seahawks trade a sixth round pick for Palmer next season). The great Liam Neeson said in “Batman Begins”, “When a forest grows out of control, a purging fire is natural and necessary.” That quote definitely applies here. Cincinnati is going to be awful this season, but things are looking up for them.

Fantasy Outlook = Rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has the most potential of any Bengals players, but fellow rookie Andy Dalton (and his red hair) will hold Green back from being a fantasy monster this season. Green is currently ranked 31st by the fantasy experts at ESPN, which makes him a fringe #3 receiver or bye-week sub (depending on the size of your league). Cedric Benson is coming off an eventful off-season, but should be drafted by the ninth round as a third RB option. Tight end Jermaine Gresham shouldn’t be drafted, but monitor his performance the first couple of weeks to see if he clicks with Dalton. Rookie quarterbacks usually look for tight ends, so Gresham could be a solid PPR option. 

Ceiling = 6-10
Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Cleveland Browns



2010 Record = 5-11, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = DE Matt Roth, CB Eric Wright, S Abram Elam

Schedule = Bengals, @ Colts, Dolphins, Titans, BYE, @ Raiders, Seahawks, @ 49ers, @ Texans, Rams, Jaguars, @ Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ Cardinals, @ Ravens, Steelers


Real-Life Outlook = Remember when Cleveland smashed New England last year during the first week of November just two weeks after winning in New Orleans? Somehow this team only won three other games the rest of the season. It would’ve been very easy for Cleveland to take Julio Jones with the fifth pick in the draft to give Colt McCoy a viable wide receiver, but I like how Cleveland shipped the pick to Atlanta for five extra draft picks. With Mike Holmgren running the show, Browns’ fans should have confidence that those picks will be used well. Look for Cleveland to be in a good place in 2014.

            With all that said, did you look at their schedule? Of their first eleven games, I’d give them at least a 40% chance of winning ten of them (their trip to Indianapolis being the one they’ll be heavy underdogs in). I could definitely see them starting the year 7-4 before losing their final five games (they play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice during this stretch, with a trip to Arizona stuck in the middle). To make a long story short, if you want to bet the over on Cleveland’s regular season win total (on Sportsbook.com, their over/under is 6.5), you have No Credentials full endorsement.     
Fantasy Outlook = It’s not smart to talk about Peyton Hillis before we discuss The Madden Curse. For those not in the know, this has to do with the Madden video game that comes out every year. Ever since players were first placed on the cover, it’s been misfortune for whoever was pictured. Here’s a list of what the curse has done in 12 years. 

The Madden Curse took away any lateral agility Eddie George ever had.


The Madden Curse allowed Daunte Culpepper to set the record for most fumbles lost in a single season during the 2001 campaign. Then for good measure, The Madden Curse shredded both of his knees in 2005 and ’06.


The Madden Curse ended Marshall Faulk’s string of 1,000+ yard-rushing seasons. He retired two years after appearing on the cover in 2002.

The Madden Curse snapped Michael Vick’s leg in half during the 2003 pre-season.

The Madden Curse broke Ray Lewis’ wrist.

The Madden Curse first inflicted a sports hernia on Donovan McNabb, and then as a finishing move, tore his ACL.

The Madden Curse injured Shaun Alexander’s foot, causing him to miss six games the year after he won the league MVP.

The Madden Curse is responsible for Vince Young’s career missteps since his rookie year (if I typed everything that’s happened to him, this post would be an extra 1,500 words).

The Madden Curse coerced Brett Favre into sending a picture of his penis to Jenn Sterger.

The Madden Curse sprained Troy Polamalu’s MCL in the first game of the 2009 season, and then knocked him out of action again with a PCL injury. It’s interesting to note that Larry Fitzgerald was also on the cover with Polamalu that year, but survived. Apparently The Madden Curse can only knock out one player per season.

Finally, The Madden Curse forced Drew Brees to throw a career high 22 interceptions.

            More than anything else, his presence on the cover of “Madden NFL 12” alone is reason for me to avoid Peyton Hillis. It’s not logical, but I’m not betting against a curse until someone is on the cover and wins the Super Bowl the same season.
            To get back to the business of relevant fantasy advice, tight end Kellen Winslow is the only other Brown that should be drafted. He’s another solid late-round option at that position.

Ceiling = 10-6
Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Pittsburgh Steelers



2010 Record = 12-4, 1st in Division (Lost Super Bowl vs. Packers)
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = None

Schedule = @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ Colts, @ Texans, Titans, Jaguars, @ Cardinals, Patriots, Ravens, @ Bengals, BYE, @ Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Browns


Real-Life Outlook = In the season immediately following Pittsburgh’s previous Super Bowl victories, they have failed to make the playoffs the following year. Perhaps coming off of a loss will make them a little less content, but I still think there will be speed bumps for them that will prevent Pittsburgh from winning the North. Maybe a weird home loss against Tennessee or Jacksonville sandwiched between odd road losses at Houston and Arizona. Despite the prediction of an uneven start, Pittsburgh easily has the weakest opposing schedule of any 2010 division winner. Barring significant injuries, there is no way they should lose any of their last five games. The weak schedule should be enough for Pittsburgh to land at least an AFC Wildcard spot.

Fantasy Outlook = Ben Roethlisberger will be either the 8th or 9th quarterback taken in your fantasy draft. You’re going to want to draft a decent back up, as Big Ben is prone to holding on to the ball to long and taking a beating. Rashard Mendenhall is a late first or early second round pick at runningback. I have a hunch that Pittsburgh is going to run the ball more this season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mendenhall finish with 1,500 rushing yards. Mike Wallace is the AFC’s answer to DeSean Jackson. With Hines Ward getting older (and slower), expect Wallace to set a new career high in receptions. Ward is a fringe #3 in a 12-team league, but probably should be the fourth or fifth wide out you draft. Pittsburgh is one of the few fantasy defenses that you will be able to start every week of the season. 

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5

1. Baltimore Ravens



2010 Record = 12-4, 2nd in Division (Lost in Divisional Round @ Steelers)
Key Additions = WR Lee Evans, FB Vonta Leach, S Bernard Pollard, RB Ricky Williams
Key Losses = RB Willis McGahee, T Jared Gaither, CB Josh Wilson, S Dawan Landry, TE Todd Heap

Schedule = Steelers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Jets, BYE, Texans, @ Jaguars, Cardinals, @ Steelers, @ Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @ Browns, Colts, @ Chargers, Browns, @ Bengals


Real-Life Outlook = The addition of Lee Evans makes a huge difference for the Ravens offense. While he isn’t as dynamic as Mike Wallace, he still is the first legitimate deep threat Baltimore has had since the team moved to Baltimore in 1996. If Flacco and Evans click early, running lanes will open up for Ray Rice, and underneath patterns will be more accessible for Anquan Boldin. Baltimore’s secondary was leaky last season, but an improved offense will allow them to play with the lead more often. With their front seven able to pin their ears back and attack opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore should bounce back as a top-5 defensive unit. 

Fantasy Outlook = It’s not all that often that a fullback is discussed in terms of fantasy, but that’s what I’m going to do here in relation to runningback Ray Rice. Baltimore was able to sign former Texans fullback Vonta Leach. Avid fantasy players may recall that Leach was Arian Foster’s lead blocker last season. Foster also just happened to be the top scoring player in fantasy football last season. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Rice gets a bump with a better fullback (and better offensive line play). If you can get him at any point after the sixth pick in your draft, you’ll be very fortunate.
            None of the other Ravens are elite fantasy options. Joe Flacco was a sleeper last season, but his disappointing 2010 drops him to the 15th ranked quarterback on Yahoo!. It would be best to use him in a platoon situation, or as a back-up to Michael Vick or Tony Romo. Anquan Boldin got off to hot start, but disappeared during the final four games of 2010 (only 8 receptions for 67 yards during the fantasy playoffs). The presence of Lee Evans should help a bit, but keep in mind that last season was only the third time in Boldin’s career that he appeared in all sixteen games. Lee Evans should be drafted as a back-up only. His addition to the team will help the offense, but don’t expect Evans to have a monster season.

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 10-6
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4


Click the links below to read about
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC South
the NFC West

Monday, August 15, 2011

Round 1 of the 2011 No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft


            With the assistance of my friend Ethan, I’m proud to unveil the first round of the official No Credentials 2011 Mock Fantasy Football Draft. Here was the very simple framework that was set up for this draft.



-         The mission was to create a 15-round mock draft for a 12-team, point-per-reception league.

-         Passing touchdowns are worth four points.

-         Positions that needed to filled were QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, DEF, and seven bench spots.

-         Ethan and I would discuss whom we thought should be chosen at each spot. Ethan had the final say for the odd numbered teams (1,3,5,7,9, and 11, for those of you that didn’t pay attention during elementary school), while I had the final say on the even numbered teams.



I will include some insight into the discussion we had when we figured out who should’ve been picked where. Also, I will include fantasy football tips that I will reveal throughout the mock draft. Without further ado…



Team 1, aka “Who We Thought They Were”

Pick 1 = Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings – Ethan and I both agreed on this one with very little discussion. Basically, there’s a feeling of safety taking a guy who’s been rock solid his first four years in the NFL. It’s also a plus that while Donovan McNabb isn’t talented enough to carry the entire offense, he should be enough of a threat that defenses won’t be able to key on AP. I wouldn’t be surprised if Peterson puts up career numbers no matter how bad Minnesota ends up being.



Team 2, aka “Trampled Underfoot”

Pick 2 = Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs – Surprisingly, we both agreed on this pick as well. If the split of carries leans more in Charles’ favor in Kansas City, 1,800 yards rushing (plus another 500 receiving) is in play.



Team 3, aka “Worn Out Catcher’s Mitt Face”

Pick 3 = Arian Foster, RB, Texans – Took some haggling by me to sway Ethan to take Foster over Chris Johnson, but Foster’s receiving stats were enough to convince my sidekick to take the top fantasy scorer from last season. I don’t expect 1,600+ yards again, but if he delivers 12 rushing touchdowns and 60+ receptions, you’ll be cool with it. He’ll go first in the majority of fantasy leagues this season.



Team 4, aka “Marty Funkhauser”

Pick 4 = Michael Vick, QB, Eagles – I waffled between Vick and Johnson on this pick. Taking Johnson meant playing it safe and not looking like an idiot (even if Johnson tears his ACL in week 2, you could still say, “well I had to take him” and no one would give you shit for it because at the time of the draft, it made sense). Taking Vick meant being aggressive in taking a player who most fantasy experts have ranked second at his own position (except for ESPN’s Matthew Berry, who is all in on Vick this season). Vick could single-handedly win you your fantasy league this season (he was the second highest scoring fantasy player last year, and he missed part or all of five games). He could also destroy it if his yearly injury spell happens to occur during the fantasy playoffs. In my book, the fourth pick is the appropriate time to take the plunge on a potential game changer.



FANTASTY TIP 1.1 = FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD - Don’t make a “safe” pick because you are afraid to be called a moron by your fellow league members. Is taking Vick at four to early? Your damn right it is, but if you really want Vick on your team, there’s no way he’s making it back to the end of the second round. As a general rule, there is no such thing as reaching to early for a player if there is no chance that player will be available when you pick next.



Team 5, aka “Double Stuffed Oreos”

Pick 5 = Chris Johnson, RB, Titans – Insanity ended, and last year’s consensus number one finally went off the board. His holdout is a little scary, but the setup around him is as good as it has ever been since he arrived in Tennessee. If he’s in camp within a week, and he doesn’t look like Bam Morris when he takes the field in preseason, draft him with confidence.



Team 6, aka “Ward Burton”

Pick 6 = Andre Johnson, WR, Texans – Another aggressive pick by me, but Johnson is a perennial threat to top 100 receptions (health permitting). I wouldn’t argue with anyone in a PPR league that took him as high as fourth.



FANTASY TIP 1.2 = IT PAYS TO HAVE THE BEST AT SOMETHING – Many teams fantasy owners get flustered when they see a run on a certain position. “Oh my God, five tight ends have just come off the board, I need to get one now!” I’ll call this style of fantasy management “cardiac management”. At six here, it would be very easy to take Ray Rice because four runningbacks have already flown off the board, and who knows what will be left when this team picks again at 19. However, when encountering runs like this, it’s best to push against the current. When people are zigging, zag. Sometimes what happens when you do this is you start your own run. Now there could be a run of wide receivers after this pick, which could then leave you with some quality runningback options (or maybe even one of the elite quarterbacks). Much like in real life, it’s better to be a trendsetter than a trend follower.



Team 7, aka “George W.”

Pick 7 = Ray Rice, RB, Ravens – Rice was a disappointment last season (he didn’t have his biggest game of the year until after most of the fantasy teams he was on were eliminated), but the setup for him this year is the best it has ever been. Lee Evans has been added to the roster as a deep threat, and Willis McGahee (aka Goal-Line Carries Vulture) has been let go. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has already indicated that Rice will get the bulk of the work in the red-zone. You’re getting great value if you can get Rice at this point in the draft.



Team 8, aka “Probably Should’ve Gone to Rehab”

Pick 8 = Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers – The reigning king of the quarterback position, Rodgers will benefit from the return of several injured starters that missed the back half of the 2010 season. The Packers might not win the Super Bowl again, but Rodgers will have a better statistical season.



Team 9, aka “Holy Diver”

Pick 9 = LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles - Ethan’s favorite pick of the entire draft so far. McCoy put up the numbers he did last season while playing with broken ribs for six weeks. Assuming that the Eagles defense is much improved this season, which should also give McCoy more opportunities on the ground. If you are in PPR league, and decide to take McCoy as high as 4th, I wouldn’t argue with you.



Team 10, aka “LIVESTRONG (w/ HGH)”

Pick 10 = Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals – Fitzgerald probably should’ve got votes for MVP last season for the numbers he was able to put up with the bums playing QB in Arizona last season. I won’t say that Kevin Kolb is going to be the best thing since sliced bread, but he’s competent enough that Fitzgerald will have a huge bounce-back season. The only thing that will potentially slow him will be the lack of a secondary receiving option (unless someone emerges).



Team 11, aka “Single Ronnie Memorial Team”

Pick 11 = Roddy White, WR, Falcons – A safe bet to catch 90-100 balls, and score 8-12 touchdowns.



Team 12, aka “Go Cole!”

Pick 12 = Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers – Mendenhall hasn’t put up a ton of receptions in the NFL (you can thank Ben Roethlisberger, who is not particularly adept at checking down, for this), but has shown the capability to do it. I don’t have any evidence to support this, but I’m feeling like Mendenhall could put up career numbers. If you got 1,400 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, and another 35-40 receptions thrown in, you’ll be happy.



FANTASY TIP 1.3 = THERE ARE NO BAD PICKS IN THE FIRST ROUND – You’ll always hear people whine and complain about not getting a high pick in your draft. While adding a stud runningback with a top-3 pick is certainly a benefit, you can build a championship winning team around any of these players. Rounds 2-13 are much more critical to the ability of your team than your first pick.


Wednesday, August 10, 2011

2011 NFC South Preview

4. Carolina Panthers



2010 Record = 2-14 (4th in Division)
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = QB Matt Moore, CB Richard Marshall

Schedule = @ Cardinals, Packers, Jaguars, @ Bears, Saints, @ Falcons, Redskins, Vikings, BYE, Titans, @ Lions, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Texans, Buccaneers, @ Saints


Real-Life Outlook = It’s hard to put into words how awful Carolina was last season. They were outscored by 212 points last season, which was “tops” in the league by 67 points. The Panthers offense just barely averaged 12 points per game. Steve Smith was so pissed off about the atrocious quarterback play that he went on a religious retreat to figure out the reason why God was punishing him (alright, I made that last one up, but that wasn’t so far fetched was it?). Carolina will be just as awful this year, but at least there will be a shred of hope for the future with Cam Newton under center (unless you think he’s the next JaMarcus Russell instead of the next Ben Roethlisberger).

Fantasy Outlook = It’s rare that a decision by a player to rejoin a team destroys his fantasy value as well as a teammates, but that’s exactly what happened when DeAngelo Williams resigned with Carolina. Instead of both Williams and teammate Jonathan Stewart being candidates to be chosen among the top-10 runningbacks, Williams is now a 3rd or 4th rounder while Stewart should fall somewhere between the 6th and 8th. You shouldn’t draft either of these guys, but target either of them early in the season through a trade. Let’s say you trade a wide receiver you drafted in the 9th round who has gotten off to a fast start for either Panther runningback (the owner of both of them will more than likely be very frustrated with them). If you land either of them on the cheap, and then the other one gets hurt, you have yourself a player that will be facing Houston and Tampa Bay during the fantasy playoffs (two teams that weren’t known for tough run defense last season). So to make a long story short, don’t draft either of them (unless it’s the 10th round or something and you can grab Stewart), but try to trade for both players after the season starts.
            As for Smith, unless he gets shipped out of town before the season starts, you shouldn’t plan on him being anything more than a 3rd receiver. He’s currently going towards the end of the 6th round in 12-team leagues, which is probably about two rounds too high given the quarterback situation he’s stuck with.

Ceiling = 4-12
Floor = 1-15 (thankfully for them, they get the Redskins at home)
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers


2010 Record = 10-6 (3rd in Division)
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = LB Barrett Ruud, RB Cadillac Williams

Schedule = Lions, @ Vikings, Falcons, Colts, @ 49ers, Saints, Bears, BYE, @ Saints, Texans, @ Packers, @ Titans, Panthers, @ Jaguars, Cowboys, @ Panthers, @ Falcons


Real-Life Outlook =  With one of the best young foundations in football (Scouts Inc. rated Tampa’s players that were 25 or younger better than any other team in the league), the Buccaneers certainly have much to look forward to the next five seasons. Josh Freeman looks like he will go down as the steal of the 2009 draft. LeGarrette Blount wasn’t even drafted last season, but still managed to run for just over 1,000 yards. Mike Williams was taken in the fourth round of last season’s draft, but caught 65 passes and 11 touchdowns. Offensively this team has pieces, but it looks like the defense will be what holds Tampa Bay back. The defensive line will be better with second round pick Da’Quan Bowers stepping in at defensive end, but expect Tampa to give up plenty of yards through the air. Ronde Barber is a shadow of his former self, and with Aqib Talib’s legal issues that will potentially keep him off the field the Buccaneers are going to have a hard time covering anybody. The defense will have to get a super human effort from the front-seven in order to be effective.

Fantasy Outlook = Freeman is currently the last starting fantasy quarterback being taken in Yahoo! drafts. If you don’t get one of the elite seven (Vick, Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Rivers, Romo), I fully endorse skipping the likes of Schaub and Roethlisberger to instead scoop up Freeman in the ninth round. This will be the last season you will be able to get Freeman this late. I expect Blount to have a big year on the ground, but just know that if you are in PPR league, you need to downgrade him two or three rounds (dude caught five passes for 14 yards last season). I don’t see myself taking Mike Williams at 38 (which is where he is currently being taken) over the likes of Dez Bryant, but his production in his rookie season justifies being taken that high. Kellen Winslow is in the Mercedes Lewis class of tight ends that should be looked at late if you miss out on an elite player.    


Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Atlanta Falcons



2010 Record = 13-3 (1st in Division, Lost in Divisional Round vs. Packers)
Key Additions = DE Ray Edwards
Key Losses = G Harvey Dahl

Schedule = @ Bears, Eagles, @ Buccaneers, @ Seahawks, Packers, Panthers, @ Lions, BYE, @ Colts, Saints, Titans, Vikings, @ Texans, @ Panthers, Jaguars, @ Saints, Buccaneers


Real-Life Outlook = In spite of the shellacking they received at home in the playoffs last season, Atlanta must still feel pretty good about themselves. There’s no other reason a team would trade five draft picks to acquire a second wide receiver. At least they added Ray Edwards to bolster the pass rush, which was the main reason Aaron Rodgers was so dominant against them. They better win big during one of the next two seasons, otherwise their daring trade will look very foolish.

Fantasy Outlook = Matt Ryan is in the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks (joined by Schaub, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman). He won’t put up gaudy statistics (unless something goes terribly wrong with Atlanta’s season), but he’ll be a solid contributor each week. Michael Turner is currently going towards the back half of the first round. Know your league’s scoring format before drafting him. If you’re in a non-PPR league, the end of the first round is appropriate, but if you are in a PPR, I wouldn’t grab him until sometime in the 3rd. Roddy White will be the third receiver off the board on the soon to be released No Credentials Mock Draft. Julio Jones will not hurt White at all. In fact, having a warm body on the opposite side of the field (as opposed to Michael Jenkins, who played like he didn’t have a pulse during his Falcons career) will only help him as there’s someone else to pay attention to. Jones should be targeted as early as the 8th round as either a fringe #3 receiver or a bye-week sub. Tony Gonzalez’s best years are behind him, but he’s still a solid option at tight end in a PPR league (just don’t expect many touchdowns).  

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5

1. New Orleans Saints



2010 Record = 11-5 (2nd in Division, NFC Wildcard Team, Lost in Wildcard Round @ Seahawks)
Key Additions = DT Aubrayo Franklin, RB Darren Sproles, C Olin Kreutz
Key Losses = C Jonathan Goodwin, RB Reggie Bush

Schedule = @ Packers, Bears, Texans, @ Jaguars, @ Panthers, @ Buccaneers, Colts, @ Rams, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, BYE, Giants, Lions, @ Titans, @ Vikings, Falcons, Panthers


Real-Life Outlook = I don’t want to make too much out of the signing of a defensive tackle, but let me talk for a bit about Aubrayo Franklin. The guy is a house. Part of the reason Patrick Willis has looked so good the past few years in San Francisco is because Franklin was occupying two linemen on every running play. Avid football fans (or readers of this blog) will recall Marshawn Lynch running over the entire Saints defense in their playoff loss at Seattle. Runs like will not happen with Franklin holding down the A-Gap.

            As for the rest of this team, swapping out diva Reggie Bush for Darren Sproles was a brilliant move. Sproles will do the exact same things Bush did for New Orleans, with 1% of the headaches. Philadelphia has gotten all of the love for their off-season moves, but I really like what New Orleans has done.
            Lastly, let’s discuss the schedule. New Orleans has no chance of winning their first game (the road team has never won the opening Thursday night game), but don’t be surprised if they rip off eight straight wins after that before they play Atlanta in Week 10. On paper, New Orleans has a very favorable road schedule. They went 6-2 on the road last season, and I won’t be shocked if they equal that in 2011.
Fantasy Outlook = Drew Brees will be one of the first five quarterbacks taken in your draft. Expect him to be above 30 touchdowns again, but also plan on him significantly reducing his interception total (he chucked 22 balls to the wrong team last season). The convoy of runningbacks and wide receivers on this team make it hard to distinguish any of them as elite fantasy contributors. Marques Colston is normally the safest bet on the Saints offense, but he is coming off microfracture surgery. Monitor his status until draft day before spending a late 4th or early 5th round pick on him. Lance Moore isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a great player to have as a bye-week sub. Robert Meachem has the highest ceiling of any Saint wide-out (Colston included), but needs to demonstrate some consistency before you rely on him as a weekly fantasy starter. Runningback is even harder to prognosticate. New Orleans traded up into the first round to take Mark Ingram, but he has plenty of competition for goal line carries in the form of Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. Ingram has the most upside of any of them, but don’t be surprised if Coach Sean Payton shies away from using the rookie until he demonstrates the capability to pass block. Many people are excited about the prospects of second year tight end Jimmy Graham. With Jeremy Shockey out of town, he does have the opportunity to catch 60 passes.   

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 11-5
No Credentials Prediction = 13-3

Click the links below to read about
the AFC North
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC West

Sunday, August 7, 2011

2011 AFC South Preview

4. Jacksonville Jaguars




2010 Record = 8-8, 2nd in Division
Key Additions = LB Paul Posluszny, S Dawan Landry, LB Clint Session
Key Losses = WR Mike Sims-Walker, LB Justin Durant,

Schedule = Titans, @ Jets, @ Panthers, Saints, Bengals, @ Steelers, Ravens, @ Texans, BYE, @ Colts, @ Browns, Texans, Chargers, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, @ Titans, Colts


Real-Life Outlook = Ever since the end of the Mark Brunell era, it seems like Jacksonville has thrown together a crappy roster, yet somehow managed to finish around .500. I like the team’s additions on defense (they were forced to dole out the cash so they could reach the new minimum salary requirement), but two things are really working against them this season.

  1. Jacksonville is dealing with a legitimate quarterback controversy. David Garrard has been a solid starting quarterback the past four years, but the team drafted Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick. If the Jaguars find themselves below .500 going into their bye, expect people to clamor for the young gun to take over under center.
  2. Along with the Vikings, the Jaguars are the most logical franchise to move to Los Angeles. Potential relocation has derailed teams for years in all sports (with the exception of the Minnesota Twins, who beat back contraction talk a decade ago, and now play in one of the best new ballparks in all of MLB).
     Maybe Jacksonville could overcome one of those issues, but not both. I’ll still give them a relatively high ceiling, but a very low chance of reaching it.

Fantasy Outlook = It didn’t take long for Maurice Jones-Drew to fall from the fantasy elite. After a two-year stretch of being a top-5 pick in all fantasy leagues, MJD can now be had anywhere from picks 10-20. If you do take Maurice, do your best to handcuff the Jaguars backfield by also getting Rashad Jennings. Jennings averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited action last season, and could see more action if Jones-Drew continues to show signs of wearing down. WR Mike Thomas should be looked at as one of your bye-week substitutes, and if you miss out on a big-name tight end, wait until about the 10th round and draft Mercedes Lewis. He probably won’t score 10 touchdowns again, but don’t be shocked if he catches at least 65 passes.

Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. Houston Texans



2010 Record = 6-10, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = CB Jonathan Joseph, S Daniel Manning
Key Losses = FB Vonta Leach, G Mike Brisiel

Schedule = Colts, @ Dolphins, @ Saints, Steelers, Raiders, @ Ravens, @ Titans, Jaguars, Browns, @ Buccaneers, BYE, @ Jaguars, Falcons, @ Bengals, Panthers, @ Colts, Titans


Real-Life Outlook = After years of being one of the trendy picks to make the playoffs, experts have finally stopped predicting that Houston will have a breakout season. There’s no questioning of the offensive talent they can put on the field, but soft defensive play destroyed Houston in 2010. Keep in mind that this defense was so bad, Donovan McNabb threw for 350 yards against them (more on McNabb in the NFC North Preview). Adding Joseph to anchor one of the cornerback spots will be a boost (Joseph is probably the best corner that this team has ever employed), but you can’t totally trust this group until you see their defensive line perform (they’ve done a nice job of surrounding Mario Williams with a bunch of stiffs over the past five years). If the front seven can take of business, than the sky is the limit for this team. It’s fair to call them this year’s AFC version of the Arizona Cardinals.   

Fantasy Outlook = In the soon to be released No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft, two Texans went in the top-6 (if that isn’t a sign of the rapture, I don’t know what is). Arian Foster isn’t totally trustworthy in my opinion (he’s only had one huge year, and was a bust in college), but his production last year will make him the top pick in the majority of fantasy leagues. Andre Johnson has been the top per-game producer at wide receiver for years now, and is as reliable a 1st round pick as you can make this season (especially in PPR leagues). Matt Schaub will more than likely be the 8th quarterback taken in your draft. Expect him to come off the board sometime in the 5th or early 6th round. Owen Daniels will also go in the 6th round area, but you’re better off waiting for a guy like Mercedes Lewis than taking Daniels that high.  

Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Indianapolis Colts



2010 Record = 10-6, 1st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Jets)
Key Additions = DT Tommie Harris
Key Losses = LB Clint Session

Schedule = @ Texans, Browns, Steelers, @ Buccaneers, Chiefs, @ Bengals, @ Saints, @ Titans, Falcons, Jaguars, BYE, Panthers, @ Patriots, @ Ravens, Titans, Texans, @ Jaguars


Real-Life Outlook = On the good side, Indianapolis has almost all of the pieces back from last years team. On the down side, that was a team that couldn’t stop the run or run the ball themselves. The potential for an improved run defense is there if former Bears first-rounder Tommie Harris has a bounce back year. The Colts added plenty of rookies to the offensive line, but the club still lacks a stud runningback. For this team to be successful, Peyton Manning will have to push 4,800 yards and minimize turnovers at the same time.

Fantasy Outlook = Peyton will be anywhere from the 3rd to 6th QB taken in your draft. His neck injury might scare some people off, but Manning will need to physically lose limbs before he even considers missing a game. He’ll go somewhere near the end of the 2nd round. Reggie Wayne had a great bounce-back year in 2010. If you’re looking to bet on one receiver who will most likely break 100 receptions this season, Wayne is the guy. Dallas Clark appears to be healthy, and will cost you at least a 5th round pick to acquire his services. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie need to thought of as potential 3rd starters or solid bye week options. Garcon has the most upside, and would be the receiver I would prefer to have on my team.

Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Tennessee Titans



2010 Record = 6-10, 4th in Division
Key Additions = QB Matt Hasselbeck, LB Barrett Rudd
Key Losses = DE Jason Babin, LB Stephen Tulloch

Schedule = @ Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos, @ Browns, @ Steelers, BYE, Texans, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Buccaneers, @ Bills, Saints, @ Colts, Jaguars, @ Texans


Real-Life Outlook = I won’t sit here and predict that Matt Hasselbeck will be the league MVP, but I do feel comfortable saying that Hasselbeck is the best quarterback this team has had since Steve McNair (keep in mind that last year they had some guy named Rusty, or Rocky, or Rudolph playing quarterback for a game or two). Tennessee was one of the surprise teams in the AFC last year before the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher debacle submarined their season. With both of those men gone, I’m expecting Tennessee to have a solid season. I haven’t discussed the schedule so far during my first few previews (mostly because there’s so much parody year to year, and teams you think will be bad going into the season end up being good, and vice versa), but Tennessee looks to have the most favorable schedule we’ve covered so far. The Titans play Buffalo while the Colts play New England. Tennessee plays Denver while Jacksonville gets the Chargers. Of their eight road games, they should only be heavy underdogs in three of them. Barring unexpected developments, Tennessee’s schedule could be the difference in the AFC South. 

Fantasy Outlook = Chris Johnson will go no later than pick 5 in your draft. He’s one player I want to track closely during the preseason. I have no facts to back up this statement, but I feel like he’s the kind of guy that was probably drinking gallons of Grey Goose and eating Doritos during the lockout. I want to make sure he doesn’t look like Bam Morris (circa 1995) before even considering adding him to my fantasy team. If he’s fine, he should eclipse 1,600 yards with a reliable QB under center. Hasselbeck is nothing more than a bye week fill-in. Kenny Britt is an interesting option, assuming he’s able to stay out of jail long enough to help you.

Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

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