2015 Week 8 NFL Picks

Chiefs (-3.5) over Lions
Vikings (-1) over BEARS
FALCONS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
Giants (+3.5) over SAINTS
RAMS (-9) over 49ers
Cardinals (-6) over BROWNS
STEELERS (+1) over Bengals
RAVENS (-3.5) over Chargers
TEXANS (-4) over Titans
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
Seahawks (-6) over COWBOYS
BRONCOS (+3) over Packers
PANTHERS (-7) over Colts

2015 Week 7 NFL Picks

Bills (-4.5) over Jaguars
RAMS (-6.5) over Browns
Steelers (+3) over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS (-5) over Texans
Jets (+8) over PATRIOTS
Vikings (-1.5) over LIONS
TITANS (+6.5) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
COLTS (-5) over Saints
CHARGERS (-4) over Raiders
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles
CARDINALS (-9) over Ravens

2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

BROWNS (+4.5) over Broncos

            Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep this a low scoring affair.

Bengals (-3) over BILLS

            In E.J. Manuel we do not trust.

VIKINGS (-4) over Chiefs

            This is a pivotal game if Minnesota intends to secure a wildcard spot in the NFC.

JAGUARS (-2) over Texans

            No J.J. Watt spells trouble against the surprisingly spunky Jaguars passing attack.

LIONS (-3.5) over Bears

            It’s hard to back Detroit after their stink bomb they laid last Sunday, but one needs to remember that was only six days after they should’ve had first and goal on the one-yard line at Seattle.

Washington (+7) over JETS

            This pick is based solely on our belief that the NFC is the superior conference.

Cardinals (-4.5) over STEELERS

            The funkiest game on the Week 6 slate.

Dolphins (+2) over TITANS

            We like the upgrade from Joe Philbin to literally any other human being on planet Earth.

Panthers (+7) over SEAHAWKS

            Both clubs may have trouble combining to score seven points.

PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers

            Scoring won’t be an issue here, but we like Green Bay in a rout after San Diego gave a win away against a washed up Michael Vick.

Ravens (-2) over 49ERS

            I honestly have no idea how to pick this game. Normally we say take the points, but our picks have been so awful the past couple of weeks we’re veering the other way.

Patriots (-10) over COLTS

            REVENGE!

EAGLES (-4.5) over Giants

            Another case of us veering against our default choice of taking the points.

 

Week 5 = 7-6-1

Thursday =0-1

Season = 36-39-3

Spread Picks By Team

Packers = 5-0

Vikings = 4-0

Patriots = 3-0-1

Lions = 4-1

Titans = 3-1

Seahawks = 3-1-1

Washington = 3-2

Rams = 3-2

49ers = 3-2

Chiefs = 3-2

Colts = 3-2

Jaguars = 3-2

Broncos = 3-2

Falcons = 3-3

Texans = 2-2

Browns = 2-3

Eagles = 2-3

Giants = 2-3

Bears = 2-3

Chargers = 2-3

Bills = 2-3

Cowboys = 2-3

Steelers = 1-2-2

Bengals = 1-3-1

Dolphins = 1-3

Jets = 1-3

Raiders = 1-4

Buccaneers = 1-4

Cardinals = 1-4

Ravens = 0-4-1

Panthers = 0-4

Saints = 0-6

2015 Week 5 NFL Picks

            Didn’t have time to type up a full write-up, so here are some quick picks. We’ll be back next week with a more detailed explanation of our mediocre predictions.

BUCCANEERS (-2) over Jaguars

Bills (-1) over TITANS

RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns

FALCONS (-7) over Washington

CHIEFS (-9) over Bears

Saints (+6) over EAGLES

Rams (+9) over PACKERS

Seahawks (+3) over BENGALS

Cardinals (-3.5) over LIONS

Patriots (-9.5) over COWBOYS

Broncos (-4.5) over RAIDERS

GIANTS (-7) over 49ers

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Steelers

2015 Week 4 NFL Picks

Dolphins (+2) over Jets 

            Both of these teams were junk in Week 3, so we’ll take the points.

COLTS (-9.5) over Jaguars

            If Andrew Luck doesn’t play, the line is going to be Colts (-4.5). We’ll take them regardless.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Texans

            So far Atlanta has played the offensively challenged Eagles, the clock management indifferent Giants, and the Romo-less Cowboys. You can add a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallet to that list.

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Like their fellow NFC South members in Atlanta, the Panthers haven’t defeated any playoff caliber teams, and needed a late interception to prevent a team quarterbacked by Josh McCown from beating them last week. Tampa is competent enough to at least cover.

BILLS (-5) over Giants

            Karlos Williams fully unleashed!

Raiders (-3.5) over BEARS

            It feels wrong to pick the Raiders to cover on the road for a 1pm start two weeks in a row to push their record to 3-1, but I suppose stranger things have happened. Also, the Bears suck.

Eagles (-3) over WASHINGTON

            I don’t believe in the Eagles yet, but like clockwork Kirk Cousins turned into a pumpkin just before the calendar turned to October.

BENGALS (-4.5) over Chiefs

            I could totally see Cincinnati having a let down after their dramatic win in Baltimore last week, but I don’t possess the testicular fortitude to pick it.

            Actually, nevermind.

Chiefs (+4.5) over BENGALS

            Cincy wins this one by 3.

CHARGERS (-7.5) over Browns

            I’m not sure San Diego is good enough to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone, but Cleveland certainly isn’t good enough to be picked in a West Coast game.

Packers (-9.5) over 49ERS

            Aaron Rodgers has had a grudge against the 49ers ever since they chose Alex Smith over him in the 2005 NFL Draft, and for the first time he gets to pick on them while they are weak and feeble. Also, he just destroyed Alex Smith last Monday, which is weird.   

Vikings (+7) over BRONCOS

            It’s strange to say we like the under in a game featuring Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, but it’s important to not live in the past. Minnesota’s defense is good enough to capitalize on Peyton’s noodle arm, and Denver’s defense is stout enough to keep Peterson in check.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams

            Of all the results from Week 3, St. Louis not managing to comeback against a team quarterbacked by Michael Vick topped the list of most disappointing.

Cowboys (+3.5) over SAINTS

            Dallas crumbled like a sugar cookie in the second half against the Falcons, and we’re hopeful they learned from their mistakes and will stick to the running game Sunday night.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions

            With or without Beast Mode, the Seahawks will roll.

 

Week 3 = 7-9

Thursday = 0-0-1 (thanks for terrible fourth down decisions Mike Tomlin)

Season = 24-24-2

Spread Picks By Team

            Here are our updated results picking for each team. Here are some weird trends so far.

-         All five of the teams we have correctly picked every game this season are from the NFC.

-         Three of them are from the NFC North. We are 11-1 picking teams in this division.

-         Of our 0-3 clubs, three of them hail from the miserable NFC South.

-         11 out of the 17 teams that we are .500 or better are NFC squads. The Patriots are the only AFC team we haven’t lost a pick with (they pushed in Week 1 against Pittsburgh).

Washington = 3-0

Packers = 3-0

Vikings = 3-0

Lions = 3-0

Seahawks = 3-0

Patriots = 2-0-1

Browns = 2-1

Eagles = 2-1

Giants = 2-1

Bears = 2-1

Falcons = 2-1

Rams = 2-1

49ers = 2-1

Titans = 2-1

Chiefs = 2-1

Chargers = 2-1

Steelers = 1-1-2

Bills = 1-2

Dolphins = 1-2

Colts = 1-2

Jaguars = 1-2

Broncos = 1-2

Cowboys = 1-2

Jets = 1-2

Texans = 1-2

Ravens = 0-3-1

Bengals = 0-3

Raiders = 0-3

Saints = 0-3

Buccaneers = 0-3

Panthers = 0-3

Cardinals = 0-3

2015 Week 3 NFL Picks

RAMS (+1) over Steelers

            This game will be decided by three points or less. I guess we’ll take the point.

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Chargers

            Adrian Peterson looked pretty good last week. We expect him to go Supernova against San Diego.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS

            I can’t wrap my head around the fact that a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallett is favored to win by a touchdown.

JETS (-2) over Eagles

            The Jets are going to blitz the living hell out of Sam Bradford.

PANTHERS (-8) over Saints

            New Orleans is a car fire. Carolina might only score ten points and still cover the spread.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Jaguars

            I let myself down by not backing the Jaguars for one more game last week (they should’ve covered in Week 1 if not for an awful pick-6 by Blake Bortles). There’s back-door cover potential here, but we’re still picking the Patriots.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals

            It’s disheartening for No Credentials that our pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year is playing a must-win game in Week 3.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Raiders

            Last week’s Steelers-49ers game was further proof of the peril west coast teams face when they play 1 p.m. east coast games. That’s why this line is at least a point higher than you think it should be, and why the Browns will still cover.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS

            We’re guessing an AFC South opponent is just what the Colts need to right the ship.

COWBOYS (+1.5) over Falcons

            Atlanta’s lack of a pass rush combined with the Cowboys’ elite offensive line means Brandon Weeden should have ample time to “beautifully” throw the football (Jerry Jones’ words, not mine).

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS

            We may have under estimated Arizona (can someone ask Carson Palmer to pee in a cup already?), but Niners-Cardinals games historically have been close affairs.

SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears

            The line would have to be over three touchdowns for me to even consider taking Chicago.

DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Bills

            Buffalo shouldn’t be favored by half a point over the Dolphins on a neutral field. I’ll gladly accept the half-point discount here. 

Broncos (-3.5) over LIONS

            We have no idea what to make of Peyton Manning, but that shouldn’t matter Sunday night against a Lions team that looks ready to implode.

PACKERS (-7) over Chiefs

            It’s been ten days, and I feel like that has allowed the general public to forget how demoralizing Kansas City’s loss at home to Denver was. Now tasked with playing at Lambeau Field, we don’t like their chances Monday night.

 

Week 2 = 8-8

Thursday = 1-0 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Season = 17-15-1

Spread Picks By Team

            In our new weekly installment, I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Saints to cover against the Buccaneers. They didn’t, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Cowboys to cover on the road at Philly. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Redskins = 3-0

Browns = 2-0

Eagles = 2-0

Packers = 2-0

Vikings = 2-0

Lions = 2-0

Falcons = 2-0

Seahawks = 2-0

Rams = 2-0

49ers = 2-0

Patriots = 1-0-1

Steelers = 1-0-1

Giants = 2-1

Bills = 1-1

Titans = 1-1

Cowboys = 1-1

Dolphins = 1-1

Jets = 1-1

Texans = 1-1

Chiefs = 1-1

Chargers = 1-1

Bears = 1-1

Ravens = 0-2

Bengals = 0-2

Colts = 0-2

Jaguars = 0-2

Raiders = 0-2

Saints = 0-2

Buccaneers = 0-2

Panthers = 0-2

Cardinals = 0-2

Broncos = 0-2

Pre-Chase Rankings

Field Filler

16. Paul Menard

            For proof that The Chase field is too large, look no further than Menard and his measly four top-10s this season.

15. Jamie McMurray

            Incredibly, this is the first time McMurray has ever made The Chase. He won’t stay in title contention very long.

14. Clint Bowyer

            Bowyer propelling his soon to be non-existent race team into the playoffs is a feat on it’s own.

13. Ryan Newman

            We love Newman, but the odds of him making another run like he did last year are remote.

I Don’t Think He Cares Anymore

12. Jeff Gordon

            Despite being in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year, Gordon has been smiling all over the place during his retirement tour. One of these days we’ll figure out at one point in the 2000s he stopped trying to be great.

They Have Speed, but Need to Get Hot

11. Carl Edwards

            Edwards has two wins this year, but one was by virtue of fuel mileage, and the other was on a track layout not like anything we’ll see in the final ten races. Furthermore, of all the winners this season, Edwards has the fewest top-5s and fewest top-10s.

10. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex has cooled off considerably over the summer months, but with Dover and Loudon in the first round of The Chase, that could be a spring board for him returning to his early season form.

9. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has a decent track record of success at most of the tracks in the playoffs, and a win at Martinsville earlier in the year. If he makes it to the field of eight, Martinsville will give Hamlin his best chance of racing for the title at Homestead for the second year in a row.

You Can’t Count Them Out

8. Kurt Busch

            For a short time after his return from suspension, Busch was the only driver that could match Kevin Harvick’s consistency. That ability has waned over the summer, but Busch knows how to get it done in the playoffs and still has plenty of speed.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Quietly, Junior has had the most consistent season of any of the Hendrick drivers in 2015. His dominance at the plate tracks this season bode well for him when the Sprint Cup returns to Talladega in October. His lack of Chase success is the only reason we don’t have him ranked in the top-5.

6. Brad Keselowski

            He’s third in top-10s, but Keselowski has just felt a little bit off all season. He’s let a couple of victories slip away, and hasn’t been able to match the level of performance on a week-to-week basis by his own teammate. Keselowski has won though at least one of the tracks in every round of The Chase, and is certainly capable of going on a hot streak.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson is tied for the most wins on the circuit, but he really hasn’t done much of anything since the spring. Summer swoons aren’t uncommon for Johnson, but Hendrick has fallen behind a few organizations in terms of overall speed for the first time in years. It’ll be a tall order for Johnson to earn his record tying seventh Cup title.

Our Final Four

4. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth put an exclamation point on the regular season with a dominating run at Richmond. He has more momentum than anyone else in the garage.

3. Kyle Busch

            Kyle ripping off three straight wins in July to solidify his place in the playoffs was the most memorable run of the entire season. It will be interesting to see if he can overcome the demons of past postseason runs.

2. Joey Logano

            The Daytona 500 is second in both top-5s and top-10s to Kevin Harvick, and quietly is the most likely driver to knock Harvick off the throne.

1. Kevin Harvick

            Sure Harvick hasn’t won in a while, but his consistency has been remarkable. In 26 races, he’s posted 18 top-5s and 22 top-10s. We know he has Phoenix in the bag, so he is the most likely driver to be in the Final Four at Homestead.

2015 NFL Week 2 Picks

Texans (+3) over PANTHERS

            In what will amount to a reenactment of football in the 1930s, we’ll take the points.

SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers

            We don’t feel warm and fuzzy about backing the Saints as double-digit favorites, but it would be even scarier to back the Bucs under any circumstances after last week’s debacle.

STEELERS (-7) over 49ers

            At first glance, this line is too high, but you have to dig deeper to make peace with it. Pittsburgh will have had 10 days off and gets to play at home. San Francisco played in a game that started at 10:15 eastern time Monday night, and then has to travel cross-country to play at 1pm (10am Pacific, for those of you not paying attention) Sunday.

VIKINGS (-2) over Lions

            Minnesota will reestablish themselves as wildcard contenders in their home opener.

Patriots (-1) over BILLS

            Buffalo will dominate for three quarters before finding a way to blow it and lose by 3.

BEARS (+2) over Cardinals

            We predicted the Cardinals would go 6-10. No Credentials will bank on that prediction for one more week and take the points.

BROWNS (+2) over Titans

            Two words…Johnny Fucking Football. Also, people are overreacting after Tennessee’s win over Tampa Bay.

Chargers (+3.5) over BENGALS

            I don’t know if San Diego wins, but the extra half point on this line is disrespectful to Philip Rivers.

REDSKINS (+3.5) over Rams

            St. Louis has a history of playing down to it’s competition, and Washington wasn’t horrendous in Week 1.

Falcons (+2) over GIANTS

            So a week after an epic choke job (even Tony Romo said, “Man the Giants fucked up the end of that game”), New York is favored against a decent Falcons squad?

Ravens (-7) over RAIDERS

            In McGloin we do not trust.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

            Miami took care of business on the road last week against an inferior opponent, and we think they do it again in Jacksonville.

Cowboys (+5.5) over EAGLES

            If Romo pulls this one out, we can start up some MVP chatter.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Seahawks

            On one hand, this line should be PACKERS (-3). On the other, I think Green Bay wins. So…ya.

COLTS (-7) over Jets

            Indy got kicked in the teeth last week, but they will bounce back at home.

Week 1 = 8-7-1

Thursday = 0-1 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Spread Picks By Team

            In a new weekly installment, each week I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Colts to cover in Buffalo. They got annihilated, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Seahawks to lose at St. Louis. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Dolphins = 1-0

Jets = 1-0

Browns = 1-0

Texans = 1-0

Chargers = 1-0

Eagles = 1-0

Redskins = 1-0

Packers = 1-0

Vikings = 1-0

Lions = 1-0

Bears = 1-0

Falcons = 1-0

Seahawks = 1-0

Rams = 1-0

49ers = 1-0

Chiefs = 1-1

Patriots = 0-0-1

Steelers = 0-0-1

Bills = 0-1

Ravens = 0-1

Bengals = 0-1

Colts = 0-1

Jaguars = 0-1

Titans = 0-1

Raiders = 0-1

Cowboys = 0-1

Giants = 0-1

Saints = 0-1

Buccaneers = 0-1

Panthers = 0-1

Cardinals = 0-1

Broncos = 0-2

2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

NFL Division and Playoff Picks

            You don’t even have to bother watching any NFL games this year, because No Credentials is here today to tell you how every team will do this season.

 

NFC EAST

Cowboys 12-4

Eagles 10-6

Giants 7-9

Washington 5-11

            The Eagles will look like world-destroyers some weeks, but ultimately Sam Bradford’s health will prevent them from winning the division. We love the Giants offense this year, but even when a nine fingered Jason Pierre-Paul returns, it won’t be enough to lift their putrid defense. Behind the best offensive line in football, the Cowboys will control the NFC East.

NFC North

Packers 13-3

Vikings 9-7

Bears 6-10

Lions 5-11

            Aaron Rodgers is our pick to win NFL MVP, as we’re going to really see how good he is without Jordy Nelson on the field. Minnesota has talent up and down the roster, and should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. Chicago is a car-fire, and we expect Jim Caldwell to be the parachute that pulls the Lions down into the abyss.

NFC South

Falcons 10-6

Saints 7-9

Buccaneers 7-9

Panthers 6-10

            All of these teams are still mediocre, but Atlanta did the most during the off-season to make us believe they can right the ship.

NFC West

Seahawks 12-4

Rams 9-7

49ers 6-10

Cardinals 4-12

            The NFC West has been the class of the divisions for the past four years, but their grip on that title is slipping. San Francisco had one of the worst off-seasons in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and Arizona screams regression. Those two squads growing weaker will lift the Rams over .500, but we have them narrowly missing the playoffs. Seattle has lost a ton of depth from its Super Bowl winning squad two years ago, but they are still the class of the field.

AFC East

Patriots 11-5

Dolphins 10-6

Bills 7-9

Jets 6-10

            For the first time in several years during the Brady era (we won’t count 2008), the Patriots should actually get pushed for the division title. We still expect them to win it, but Miami will be hot on their heels. Buffalo and New York won’t be walks in the park, but their lousy quarterback production (sorry Tyrod) will doom them.

AFC North

Ravens 12-4

Steelers 10-6

Bengals 6-10

Browns 4-12

            Baltimore has done a nice job reloading since the bulk of their Super Bowl winning roster left, and we forecast them rejoining the AFC elite. No Credentials doesn’t know how we found 10 wins for Pittsburgh, but their offense will be elite when Le’Veon Bell returns. This feels like the year that Andy Dalton implodes in regular season games, so at least he won’t get to choke in Round 1. Cleveland…well they are the Browns.

AFC South

Colts 12-4

Texans 9-7

Jaguars 5-11

Titans 4-12

            Indy still has a stranglehold on the South, as Houston did not properly address their quarterback situation (sorry Brian Hoyer). Jacksonville won’t be all that good, but at least they have hope for the future.

AFC West

Broncos 11-5

Chiefs 9-7

Chargers 6-10

Raiders 6-10

            2015 will probably go down as Peyton Manning’s last stand, and his noodle arm should be good enough to give Denver another division title. On paper Kansas City is the most dangerous threat, but Alex Smith’s limitations will keep them out of the playoff picture. San Diego is due for a drop in production, while Oakland will take another step towards consistent competitiveness.

Wildcard Round (home team in caps)

SEAHAWKS over Vikings, Eagles over FALCONS, Dolphins over BRONCOS, PATRIOTS over Steelers

Divisional Round

PACKERS over Eagles, COWBOYS over Seahawks, RAVENS over Miami, Patriots over COLTS

Conference Championship

PACKERS over Cowboys, RAVENS over Patriots

Super Bowl

Packers over Ravens

2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks

            We finish our fantasy football preview with a look at quarterbacks.

Tier-1 = Expensive Investments

 

A.Rodgers, GB

A.Luck, IND

            Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are really good at quarterbacking in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. We enjoy watching them play. However, the cost to own them in standard drafts or auction is too rich for our blood. Using a second round pick on them means your passing up the chance for a stud runningback or receiver. The only chance I end up with one of these two on any of my rosters on draft day is if they are available in the third round.

Tier-2 = It’s the Water

 

R.Wilson, SEA

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

            Neither Wilson or Roethlisberger got enough credit last year for how productive they were last year for fantasy owners, but they are finally getting the respect the deserve with their current average draft price ending up in the fourth round (third round in 12 team leagues or larger). I’m not likely to choose either of them, unless I’ve already filled my starting RB slots within my first three picks.

Tier-3 = Priced to Sell

 

C.Newton, CAR

M.Ryan, ATL

T.Romo, DAL

            This is the tier I want my QB to come from on draft day. Cam Newton is one of the few quarterbacks who is “receiver proof”, meaning he could lose virtually any piece of his receiving core and still maintain the same value. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t scare us at all, and if it means he ends up with 800 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the ground, it could boost his fantasy value. Matt Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line, and should be in the running to lead the league in passing yardage. Tony Romo will have more opportunities to throw with DeMarco Murray in Philly, which isn’t a bad thing considering the talent on the Cowboys offensive line.

Tier-4 = Old Farts

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Both of these guys are going before the guys in the previous tier in Yahoo drafts, but that doesn’t mean we have to rate them higher here. Both are entering the twilights of their career, and we’d rather bail out a year early than a year late. Brees might have the fewest pass attempts he’s ever had since joining New Orleans in 2006, and his upside is limited even more with Jimmy Graham out of town. Manning still has tons of weapons at his disposal, but Denver also will shift to a more run heavy approach to ensure Peyton is healthy for the playoffs.

Tier-5 = High-End Platoon Partners

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

P.Rivers, SD

            By our ranks, these three guys will be starting quarterbacks in 12-team leagues. That’s okay for us, but we’d probably use another pick on a back up to avoid unfavorable match-ups.

Tier-6 = Deflator!

T.Brady, NE

            It’s two weeks before opening night, and incredibly we still don’t have any idea what Brady’s final punishment will be (good job by you Goodell!). Even if Brady were to start Week 1, there are reasons to downgrade him in fantasy leagues. We’ll use snazzy bullet points.

-         Ryan Tannehill scored more fantasy points last year than Tom Brady.

-         Seriously, Ryan Tannehill, the guy that couldn’t even complete 25% of his passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air last year.

-         With apologies to Julian Edelman, there still isn’t an elite wide receiver on the Patriots roster.

-         We covered it during our Tight End preview, but it bears repeating…do you like Rob Gronkowski’s chances of staying healthy for a second straight season?

-         LeGarrette Blount is in the fold early this year, which means the Pats could pound the ball on the ground even more this season.

For all those reasons, we’ll probably not have Brady on any of our fantasy rosters this year, unless we’ve filled up our starting QB-RB-WR slots and he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-7 = Low-End (With Upside) Platoon Partners

C.Kaepernick, SF

J.Flacco, BAL

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Stafford, DET

            If you’re a crazy person who plays in a league that starts two QBs every week, these guys are the ones I want as my second quarterbacks. We still have a soft spot for Kaepernick, who is a strong bounce back candidate this year. The 49ers defense won’t be nearly as stout as it has been the past few years, meaning Kaepernick will have more opportunities to deliver. In real life we’re not sure Joe Flacco is a great fit for Marc Trestman’s style of offense, but the volume should translate to fantasy stats (it worked for Jay Cutler and Josh McCown!). Teddy Bridgewater is our favorite quarterback out of this group. The Vikings have weapons all over the place, and Bridgewater’s efficiency could deliver a Russell Wilson-esque stat line.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Dudes

S.Bradford, PHI

N.Foles, STL

R.Griffin III, WAS

C.Palmer, ARI

J.Cutler, CHI

A.Dalton, CIN

            None of these guys should be drafted in standard leagues with 12 teams or less, but this will likely be the best options you have when your starting QB is on a bye. Sam Bradford has the highest ceiling of this tier, but we need to see him get through at least one month of regular season play before we endorse him.

Tier-9 = Young Guns

J.Winson, TB

D.Carr, OAK

B.Bortles, JAC

M.Mariotta, TEN

            Here are our favorite options for those of you playing in keeper or dynasty leagues. We expect all four to have their moments (even Bortles, we like the Jags receiving core), but they will not be start-able on a weekly basis.

Tier-10 = We Only Included Them So We Could Rank 30 QBs

A.Smith, KC

B.Hoyer, HOU

R.Fitzpatrick, NYJ

            If one of these three are starting at any point during your fantasy season, something went terribly wrong.