Franchise Players = Guys that could be one of the two best
players on a championship contending team (example: Lebron James).
Fringe Stars = Guys that will put up numbers on a bad team,
but ideally, should be the third or fourth offensive option. This category also
covers elite defensive specialists and young players who haven’t made the leap
yet to franchise status (examples = Ty Lawson, Larry Sanders, Bradley Beal).
Supporting Cast = Guys that are capable of filling out an
NBA rotation. If you’re relying on them too much, good luck in the draft
lottery (example = Avery Bradley).
First Round Rookies = Rookies that will be on NBA rosters
this season. We didn’t include players that are stashed in Europe.
Without further ado, here are 6,500 words about NBA
basketball.
Riggin For Wiggins
30. Phoenix Suns
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = PG Eric Bledsoe
Supporting Cast = PG Goran Dragic, C Emeka Okafor, PF Channing Frye
First Round Rookies = C Alex Len (1-5, Maryland)
Outlook = Phoenix is second in line for the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes, but unlike Philadelphia, it looks like the Suns have actually been trying to construct a competitive basketball team. Eric Bledsoe will finally have a crack at significant playing time, but it’s hard to see him and Goran Dragic coexisting in the same back court. It would make a ton of sense for Dragic to be shipped elsewhere. Marcin Gortat was the most valuable trade chip Phoenix had (his contract expires at the end of the season), and Phoenix didn’t wait long to ship him out of town. Emeka Okafor was acquired mostly because of his huge expiring contract, but if he’s able to return by season’s end could be a decent mentor for Alex Len. The Suns are primed to have a ton of ping balls in the 2014 Draft Lottery.
29. Philadelphia 76ers
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = SF Thaddeus Young
Supporting Cast = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes, SG Jason Richardson
First Round Rookies = C Nerlens Noel (1-6, Kentucky, traded from Pelicans), PG Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse, 1-11)
Outlook = 2013-14 is going to be pretty atrocious for the 76ers, but that is by design. They’ve blown the roster up in an effort to get as many young assets as possible. Nerlens Noel was the perfect acquisition for this sort of plan, as it’s unlikely he sees the court until sometime after New Years Day. Even better, New Orleans sent their 2014 first round pick along with Noel for the rights to Jrue Holliday, meaning they could have two ping-pong balls in the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes (more on New Orleans later). They could be trotting four lottery picks from back-to-back drafts this time next year. No team has a better five-year outlook than the Philadelphia 76ers, so remember that Philly fans when they finish 15-67 this year.
28. Charlotte Bobcats
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = C Al Jefferson
Supporting Cast = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, PG Kemba Walker, SG Gerald Henderson, SG Ben Gordon, PF Bismack Biyombo
First Round Rookies = PF Cody Zeller (1-4, Indiana)
Outlook = There’s a slight chance Charlotte isn’t putrid this season. Al Jefferson won’t play a lick of defense, but he’s the first low-post scorer the Bobcats have ever had. Kemba Walker was a pleasant surprise last season, but I still would prefer to see him in a sixth man role on a playoff team. Kidd-Gilchrist showed flashes last spring, and when healthy, Gerald Henderson is capable of filling the stat sheet. Ben Gordon has a very valuable $13 million expiring contract, meaning if the Bobcats play their cards right, they could be able to scoop up some extra draft picks from a club looking for salary cap relief. Charlotte will still have a great chance at the number one overall pick, but at least they finally have some direction.
27. Utah Jazz
Franchise Players = None Fringe Stars = PF Derrick Favors
Supporting Cast = SF Gordon Hayward, C Enes Kanter, SG Alec Burks, PF Marvin Williams
First Round Rookies = PG Trey Burke (1-9, Michigan, traded from Timberwolves)
Outlook = For the first time since immediately following the end of the Stockton-Malone era, the Jazz will not be in playoff contention this season. Part of that is by design, as they let Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap walk without receiving anything in return. More playing time for Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter is a good thing, as both have the look of quality NBA big men. Gordon Hayward is a solid scorer, but asking him to be the go-to scorer is ridiculous. Expect a lot of 4-18s out of Utah’s Great White Hope. Trey Burke has the talent to eventually be a Mike Conley-like point guard for the Jazz.
26. Boston Celtics
Franchise Players = PG Rajon RondoFringe Stars = SF Jeff Green
Supporting Cast = PG Avery Bradley, SG MarShon Brooks, PF Jared Sullinger, SF Gerald Wallace, PF Kris Humphries, SG Courtney Lee, PF Brandon Bass
First Round Rookies = PF Kelly Olynyk (1-13, Gonzaga, traded from Mavericks)
Outlook = I’ve flip-flopped 20 times on whether or not the Celtics will be terrible or mediocre. I guess we’ll split the difference and predict they will be bad. Until Rajon Rondo returns, it’s hard to envision how this team is going to score on a consistent basis. Jeff Green is the obvious first option, but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his NBA career, and shown no desire in being the star attraction. It looks like December or January is the time when a Rondo season debut is a possibility. What they do with Rondo will be very interesting, as he’s one of the few superstars in the league on a reasonable contract. You could argue either way, but No Credentials vote is to keep him. If the ping-pong balls hit right, Rondo paired with one of the studs from next years draft could immediately return the Celtics to relevance.
25. Orlando Magic
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = C Nikola Vucevic
Supporting Cast = SF Tobias Harris, SG Arron Afflalo, PG Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Glen Davis
First Round Rookies = SG Victor Oladipo (1-2, Indiana)
Outlook = Orlando had a great off-season in the sense that they locked up a valuable piece, added a great young building block in the draft, but still are shitty enough that they’ll end up with a great draft pick next year. Nikola Vucevic is a rebounding machine that with an improved offensive game could eventually be a top-3 center in the NBA. Oladipo is a hyper active guard who at the very least will be a defensive stopper. Tobias Harris was the steal of last year’s trade deadline (he was the centerpiece in Milwaukee’s package for J.J. Reddick), and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him average 18 per game. In terms of expiring contracts, Jameer Nelson is the most valuable one, as he represents $8 million coming off the books next summer. He’s a point guard with playoff experience, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him shipped to a contender in February.
Too Good For Wiggins, Too Shitty For the Playoffs
24. Sacramento Kings
Franchise Players = C DeMarcus CousinsFringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Greivis Vasquez, SG Marcus Thornton, PG Isaiah Thomas PF Carl Landry, PF Patrick Patterson, SF John Salmons, PF Chuck Hayes, PF Jason Thompson
First Round Rookies = SG Ben McLemore (1-7, Kansas)
Outlook = Six months ago it appeared to be inevitable that the Kings would end up relocating to Seattle, but miraculously California’s state capital was able to keep it’s one professional sports franchise. Unfortunately most of the same roster from a year ago is still intact. At least black hole Tyreke Evans has been moved to New Orleans, meaning that this team will officially run through DeMarcus Cousins. Whether that is a good or bad thing will depend entirely on if his head is screwed on straight. Besides Boogie, there’s a bunch of dudes you’d love to have coming off your bench surrounding him. Marcus Thornton has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but is not nearly efficient enough to be your most reliable perimeter scorer (playoff teams should be checking in on him around the trade deadline. The guy could single-handedly swing a playoff game or two if he gets hot). How they distribute the minutes between Vasquez and Thomas will be interesting, as there’s no way strategically that they can be on the floor at the same time. Ben McLemore has the talent to eventually be a top-10 two-guard, but he looks like a guy that won’t fully show it in year one.
23. Atlanta Hawks
Franchise Players = C Al HorfordFringe Stars = PF Paul Millsap, PG Jeff Teague
Supporting Cast = SG Louis Williams, SG Kyle Korver, PF Elton Brand
First Round Rookies = PG Dennis Schroeder (1-17, Germany)
Outlook = Atlanta’s roster has basically been built around the premise of shedding salary to have money for free agency next season, which is ironic because elite free agents never sign with the Hawks. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a blockbuster trade in an effort to acquire a star caliber player (Rudy Gay anyone?). As for what is on the roster, the starting group is decent enough, but the bench leaves a lot to be desired. Al Horford and Paul Millsap will be one of the better low post pairings the NBA has to offer, but it’s tough to see how any offense is going to be initiated without Josh Smith. Barring a major trade, the Hawks will find themselves in the lottery for the first time in many years.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Franchise Players = SG Kobe Bryant, PF Pau GasolFringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Steve Nash, C Chris Kaman, SG Nick Young, PG Steve Blake, SG Jodie Meeks, C Jordan Hill
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Not since the 2004-05 season (the year Shaq was traded to Miami) have the Lakers been in such a state of flux. Dwight Howard became the first marquee Lakers free agent to bolt for another franchise. Kobe’s recovery from a torn Achilles’ is the greatest unknown, as the question of when he will actually play has to be answered before we can see what level he can compete at. A fully healthy Bryant would have a hard time dragging this group into the playoffs. Pau Gasol and Steve Nash are the two Lakers whose situation actually improved from a year ago. Gasol will return to his rightful spot in the post, and Nash-Gasol pick-and-rolls have the chance to be devastating. Pau is a free agent after the season and could fetch himself one more max contract if he plays to his potential. The bench isn’t quite as atrocious as last season, but the Lakers are still one of the shallowest clubs in the NBA. Chris Kaman will make an impact when he’s healthy, and Nick Young is one of the more infamous irrational confidence guys the league has to offer. It’s going to be a rough year in Laker-land, but at least
21. Denver Nuggets
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = PG Ty Lawson, PF Kenneth Faried, SF Danilo Gallinari
Supporting Cast = C JaVale McGee, SG Wilson Chandler, PG Andre Miller, PF J.J. Hickson, PG Nate Robinson, C Timofey Mozgov, SG Randy Foye, PF Darrell Arthur
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally a solid bet for landing somewhere between the fourth or eighth seed in the Western Conference, this is the year we see the wheels coming off a bit for the Nuggets. There are a lot of interesting parts, but figuring out how new coach Brian Shaw doles out minutes will go a long way in determining if this group can stay in playoff contention. Danilo Gallinari will miss a large chunk of time at the beginning of the year, which is a killer to a team that relies so heavily on three-point shooting. Ty Lawson will have to shoulder a larger scoring load as long as Gallinari is out. JaVale McGee finally appears to be slated to get regular minutes, but we aren’t sure if more of McGee is a good thing. When he’s engaged, there are few big men who impact the game on the defensive end as much as him. We see the Nuggets sliding out of their usual top-8 finishing spot and ending up in the lottery next spring.
20. Toronto Raptors
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = SF Rudy Gay, SG DeMar DeRozan, PG Kyle Lowry,
Supporting Cast = C Jonas Valanciunas, PF Amir Johnson, SF Landry Fields, PF Austin Daye, SF Steve Novak, PF Tyler Hansbrough, SG Terrance Ross
Rookies = None
Outlook = If you want to make a bet on which NBA team will brick the most 15-foot jump shots this season, look no further than the Raptors. Rudy Gay is paid like a franchise player, but has never demonstrated in his NBA career that he’s capable of carrying one. Kyle Lowry stuffs the stat sheet, but his difficult personality rubs teammates and coaches the wrong way on too many occasions. DeMar DeRozan would be best suited as a sixth man, but he is fantastic and attacking the rim and getting to the foul line. Amir Johnson has plenty of skills that would benefit a championship caliber team, but unfortunately he’s buried in Toronto. The greatest wildcard on the Raptors roster is Jonas Valanciunas. If he makes a leap, the Andrea Bargnani trade will go down as a brilliant move.
Furiously Battling For the Right to Get Swept in the First Round
19. Milwaukee Bucks
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = C Larry Sanders, SG O.J. Mayo
Supporting Cast = SF Ersan Ilyasova, PG Brandon Knight, SF Caron Butler, SG Carlos Delfino, PG Gary Neal, PG Luke Ridnour, PF John Henson
First Round Rookies = SG Giannis Antetokounmpo (1-15, Europe)
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the NBA with a weirder assortment of wing players. Gone are Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, and in are O.J. Mayo and a bunch of dudes who are best served coming off the bench. If nothing else, they do have the chance to roll out a spunky small-ball lineup. Larry Sanders is slated to receive the largest amount of minutes he’s ever gotten, but he needs to limit his fouls in order to reach his full potential. If he does, a defensive player of the year award is within reach. We also can’t sleep on the Greek rookie who has 36 letters in his last name. Ultimately, this looks like a group that could finish anywhere between eighth or twelfth in the Eastern Conference.
18. New Orleans Pelicans
Franchise Players = PF Anthony DavisFringe Stars = PG Jrue Holiday, SG Tyreke Evans, SG Eric Gordon, C Ryan Anderson
Supporting Cast = SG Anthony Morrow, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = What do you get when have an owner who is demanding to win now, and a general manager desperate to stay employed past this season? Your 2013-14 New Orleans Pelicans. It would appear on paper that this team has no depth (in good conscious, we couldn’t list Austin Rivers as a supporting cast member after his epically abysmal rookie campaign), and very little defense. However, if their top five players click offensively, watch out. Many experts are concerned how the Holiday-Evans-Gordon trio will function. One option would be having Evans or Gordon function as the sixth man. Evans does have the size needed to play the three, but has never shown in his Kings’ days that he has any interest in team defense. If Anthony Davis carries his preseason performance into the regular season campaign, that might not matter. Davis looks fully prepared to continue his journey of becoming the next Kevin Garnett. In a year where New Orleans needs to win in order to ensure that the draft pick they traded to Philadelphia for the rights to Jrue Holiday doesn’t end up in the lottery, we predict that they will come up just short of that goal.
17. New York Knicks
Franchise Players = SF Carmelo AnthonyFringe Stars = C Tyson Chandler, PF Amar’e Stoudemire, SG J.R. Smith, PG Raymond Felton
Supporting Cast = PF Andrea Bargnani, SF Metta World Peace, SG Iman Shumpert, PF Kenyon Martin, PG Beno Udrih
First Round Rookies = SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (1-24, Michigan)
Outlook = You’ll have to look real hard to find an odder assortment of front court players than what the New York Knicks have thrown together. Carmelo Anthony thrived when he played the 4 in a small-ball lineup, but this is a team that employs three capable power forwards already. The Andrea Bargnani trade adds floor spacing, but if he’s playing center when Tyson Chandler is on the bench, there is going to be a lay-up line at the other end of the court. Metta World Peace can guard larger wings, and Iman Shumpert is an emerging defensive stopper of either guard position, so perhaps the lack of rim protection can be mitigated. Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton all either wore down or fell apart mentally by the end of there second round series against Indian. Chandler in particular was a mess, and had the look of a player in serious physical decline. Kenyon Martin does bring some toughness if Chandler is unable to play to his full potential, but lacks the size to dominate the boards. New York should treat anything Amar’e Stoudemire offers this season as a bonus. The Knicks have a bunch of parts, but on paper we just don’t see them gelling this year in a deeper Eastern Conference.
Wildcards
16. Cleveland Cavaliers
Franchise Players = PG Kyrie Irving, C Andrew BynumFringe Stars = PF Anderson Varejao, PF Tristan Thompson, PG Jarrett Jack
Supporting Cast = SG Dion Waiters, SG Alonzo Gee, SF Earl Clark, SG C.J. Miles
First Round Rookies = PF Anthony Bennett (1-1, UNLV), SG Sergey Karasev (1-19, Russia)
Outlook = If you could guarantee that Kyrie Irving and Andrew Bynum would be healthy for the majority of the year, you could make the case that Cleveland would have enough firepower to make an Eastern Conference Finals run. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that snow will fall in Hawaii. Kyrie Irving has missed significant time in both of his two NBA seasons (and for that matter, his only year at Duke), but when he’s on the court he’s arguably a top-5 scorer in THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION. Bynum’s injury woes are even more problematic. It’s easy to forget that when he’s healthy, he’s among the top-5 centers in the league. Surrounding these two is a slew of talented role players. Anderson Varejao is another oft-injured commodity that is a stat stuffer when on the court. If Bynum shows some reliability, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Varejao shipped out of town. Tristan Thompson really came into his own after Varejao went down last year, and Cleveland just extended him through the 2015 season. He’s a dreadful free-throw shooter but has the talent to post 10+ boards every night. Dion Waiters is a streaky shooter who would be best served filling a sixth man role. Jarrett Jack is an interesting addition, as he gives Cleveland the ability to play Irving off the ball if need be. It’s hard to see where Anthony Bennett fits into the picture this year, but long term he has the talent to be a star. Many league experts think there’s a chance Lebron James returns to the Cavaliers next summer, and if he does, he’ll have plenty of talent around him. Even if Cleveland is in playoff contention, don’t be shocked to see them swing deals at the trade deadline that set them up with more cap space for next year.
15. Washington Wizards
Franchise Players = PG John WallFringe Stars = SG Bradley Beal, PF Nene Hilario, C Marcin Gortat
Supporting Cast = SF Trevor Ariza, PF Al Harrington, SG Martell Webster, SF Jan Vesely, SF Josh Childress
First Round Rookies = SF Otto Porter Jr. (1-3, Georgetown)
Outlook = At first glance, having Washington ranked this high seems pretty ridiculous, but we’re putting a ton of stock into how the Wizards played the final two months of last season. John Wall was one of the top point guards during the league during that stretch (he directly impacted the championship in the No Credentials Fantasy Basketball League last year), and Washington reaching their potential hinges largely on him. Bradley Beal is also a piece of the puzzle. He looked lost to start his rookie year, but really turned it on after the All-Star break. It isn’t much of a stretch to predict he will end up as a top-10 shooting guard in the league by the end of the year. Hilario and Gortat form a formidable defensive pair down low. Washington’s acquisition of Gortat from Phoenix also allows Nene to move to his more natural spot at power forward. There are a slew of solid bench players here that on any given night can give the Wizards’ offense a jolt. It wouldn’t be fair to expect too much out of Otto Porter Jr., as it looks like he will have a similar rookie season to what Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had last season.
14. Detroit Pistons
Franchise Players = SF Josh SmithFringe Stars = PF Greg Monroe, PG Brandon Jennings, C Andre Drummond
Supporting Cast = PG Rodney Stuckey, SG Kyle Singler, PF Charlie Villanueva, PG Chauncey Billups
First Round Rookies = SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1-8, Georgia)
Outlook = Detroit has been so bad the last few years that it’s hard to believe that they were one of the elite clubs in the Eastern Conference during the middle part of the ‘00s. It’s fitting that Chauncey Billups has returned to Detroit in a reserve role, as the Pistons finally look to return to competitive form this season. The additions of Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings are massive upgrades. Smith is an elite defender who can guard players on the wing or in the post. Jennings isn’t the most efficient player on Earth, but when he gets on a run he can carry an offense. It’s unclear how a frontcourt of Smith-Monroe-Drummond will function (there could be some major floor spacing issues), but the Pistons do have some shooters they can mix in and out of the lineup to help alleviate that. Smith’s flexibility also gives Detroit the freedom to play small if necessary. Drummond is on the short list of players who could make the leap to “Franchise Player” status before the season is done.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Franchise Players = PF Kevin LoveFringe Stars = PG Ricky Rubio, C Nikola Pekovic, SG Kevin Martin
Supporting Cast = PG J.J. Barea, SF Corey Brewer, SG Alexey Shved, PF Dante Cunningham, SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
First Round Rookies = SF Shabazz Muhammad (1-14, UCLA, traded from Jazz)
Outlook = Ravaged by injuries a year ago, Minnesota will finally have the Love-Rubio duo on the court at the same time. Kevin Love should be in a much happier place now that ex-general manager David Kahn has finally been kicked out the door. Rubio was woefully rusty when he first returned last season, but his final month stretch showed what he’s capable of when healthy. Kevin Martin was much maligned after he no-showed the second round of the playoffs for the Thunder last season, but he’s still a deadly three-point shooter when he can be your third option. Look for Rubio to get him plenty of open looks. Pekovic was given a healthy contract extension, and is the ideal rim protector to pair with Kevin Love. Out of their supporting cast, someone needs to emerge as a sixth man who can score. Derrick Williams has the most upside, but has shown nothing in his first couple of years in the league to validate being the second player taken in the draft. Corey Brewer provides exceptional perimeter defense that the Timberwolves lost when Andrei Kirilenko bolted for the Nets. Health permitting, Minnesota should be in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Franchise Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge
Fringe Stars = SF Nicolas Batum, PG Damian Lilliard, SG Wesley Matthews
Supporting Cast = C Robin Lopez, PG Mo Williams, SF Dorell Wright, PF Thomas Robinson
First Round Rookies = PG C.J. McCollum (1-10, Lehigh)
Outlook = Last season, Portland trotted out one of the most efficient starting fives in the NBA, but was undone by one of the worst benches in the league. While the starting core remains intact, Portland aggressively moved to fix their bench issues. Mo Williams and Dorell Wright are both capable of producing sixth man of the year numbers. Robin Lopez might not post the huge rebound totals J.J. Hickson did last year, but he’s a better rim protector who will improve Portland’s overall team defense. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the top-5 scoring power forwards in the league, but it will take another step in production from Nicolas Batum to lift this team into championship contention. Portland isn’t one of the favorites, but consider them a dark horse to make noise come playoff time.
11. Dallas Mavericks
Franchise Players = PF Dirk NowitzkiFringe Stars = SG Monta Ellis, PG Jose Calderon
Supporting Cast = SF Shawn Marion, SG Vince Carter, C Samuel Dalembert, C Brandon Wright, PG Devin Harris, C DeJuan Blair
First Round Rookies = PG Shane Larkin (1-18, Miami, traded from Hawks)
Outlook = We’ll say this for the Mavericks…at least they actually tried to put competent NBA players around Dirk Nowitzki. Unfortunately, unless Shawn Marion or Samuel Dalembert is on the floor, none of them will want to play defense. Nowitzki looks poised for a massive bounce back year, as he was slowly rounding into shape by the end of last season. How the backcourt gels will ultimately determine the ceiling of Dallas. Monta Ellis is among the most relentless guards in the NBA, but he’s also among the most inefficient. Coach Rick Carlisle might be the right coach that can get the most out of him. Jose Calderon couldn’t ask to have been placed in a better situation, as his game is similar to a poor man’s Steve Nash (circa 2007). Dallas hasn’t had a point guard presence like this since Nash left after the 2003-04 season. Shawn Marion and Vince Carter are steady veterans out on the wing who still provide more value than you would think. In the end, expect a top-5 scoring team, along with a bottom-five defensive unit, with the chance of maybe sneaking into the second round.
10. Golden State Warriors
Franchise Players = PG Stephen CurryFringe Stars = SG Klay Thompson, SF Andre Iguodala, C Andrew Bogut, PF David Lee
Supporting Cast = SF Harrison Barnes, SF Draymond Green
Rookies = None
Outlook = Miami might have been crowned the NBA champions, but there wasn’t a more entertaining team in last year’s playoffs than the Golden State Warriors. Most of that can be credited to their three-point shooting blitz, led by the dynamic duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry has dealt with ankle issues throughout his NBA career, but there is no doubt that when healthy he can be the centerpiece of a championship team. Thompson showed tremendous versatility in the playoffs, and another leap by him would give the Warriors the best backcourt in basketball. Andre Iguodala provides much-needed defense on the wing, and has the passing ability to facilitate three-point shooting. Golden State really took off once David Lee went down, so it will be interesting to see how he’s utilized this season. The Warriors have rarely had both him and Andrew Bogut healthy at the same time. Bogut is the key to any championship aspirations the Warriors might have. He provides much needed rim-protection. Harrison Barnes will likely be relegated to a sixth man role, which isn’t a bad thing. He often performed at his best when he was forced to be the lead scoring option last season. Golden State doesn’t appear to be very deep, but with good health and reasonable player development, they are again a dark horse in the Western Conference.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Franchise Players = C Marc Gasol, PF Zach RandolphFringe Stars = PG Mike Conley
Supporting Cast = SG Tony Allen, C Kosta Koufos, PG Jerryd Bayless, SF Tayshaun Prince, SF Mike Miller, PF Ed Davis, PF Jon Leuer
Rookies = None
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the league more likely to play in more games where neither team scores 90 points than the Memphis Grizzlies. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph make a very formidable pair down low, but there isn’t enough floor spacing around them to take advantage of it. Tony Allen is one of the top-5 wing defenders in the league, but his atrocious shooting makes it difficult for him to be on the court in crunch time. It will likely take another leap from Mike Conley (who is a very solid point guard, but you don’t always want your offense being initiated by him) for Memphis to have all the ingredients for a championship basketball team. At this point in his career, that would seem unlikely. The Grizzlies will be the most physical team in the league to match up with on a nightly basis, but there isn’t enough firepower here to get them out of the Western Conference.
Title Contenders
8. Indiana Pacers
Franchise Players = SG Paul George, C Roy HibbertFringe Stars = PF David West, SF Danny Granger, PG George Hill
Supporting Cast = SG Lance Stephenson, PF Luis Scola, PG C.J. Watson
First Round Rookies = SF Solomon Hill (1-23, Arizona)
Outlook = Indiana employed one of the most devastating five-man units in all of basketball last year when they had Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert on the court. The problem was, the bench was atrocious. There wasn’t one viable bench option that could be relied upon on a nightly basis. The Pacers partially patched their bench issues with the acquisitions of Luis Scola and C.J. Watson. Scola is a plus post scorer who can give quality minutes when David West or Roy Hibbert is on the bench. Watson isn’t spectacular, but at least he isn’t D.J. Augustin. The great equalizer for the Pacers could be the expiring contract of Danny Granger. How they use this valuable trade chip could put Indiana over the top.
7. Brooklyn Nets
Franchise Players = PG Deron Williams, C Brook LopezFringe Stars = SF Paul Pierce, SG Joe Johnson, PF Kevin Garnett, SF Andrei Kirilenko
Supporting Cast = PF Andray Blatche, SG Jason Terry, PF Reggie Evans, SG Alan Anderson
First Round Rookies = PF Mason Plumlee (1-22, Duke)
Outlook = What happens when the Russian Mafia decides to fund a basketball team? This conglomerate of talent, which is unlike any we’ve ever seen before. Not in the history of modern man have so many overpriced commodities been put together on one team. At least the team should be competitive. This is really a put up or shut up year for Deron Williams, who has no excuses with all the talent around him. Depending on how he handles it, Brook Lopez will benefit the most from getting to spend time with Garnett. Joe Johnson’s play also stands to gain, as he can revert more to his style of play from his Phoenix Suns days. There is plenty of depth here, which assures that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not have to be overextended during the regular season. Anything short of an appearance in the second round of the playoffs would be a disappointment.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Franchise Players = SF Kevin Durant, PG Russell WestbrookFringe Stars = PF Serge Ibaka
Supporting Cast = SG Thabo Sefolosha, PF Nick Collison, PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins, SF Ryan Gomes
First Round Rookies = C Steven Adams (1-12, Pittsburgh)
No team’s front office has done more harm to its roster over the past year than the Oklahoma City Thunder. The now infamous James Harden trade (which by my count, needs a breakout year from Jeremy Lamb to be remotely justifiable) coupled with the stubborn loyalty to Kendrick Perkins has done irrevocable harm to what was once the best young group in the NBA. Kevin Durant is still the second best player in the NBA, but he’ll have to do it the first month without Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka did nothing in the playoffs to try to ease the blow of losing Westbrook (in fact, he posted virtually identical stats after Westbrook got hurt as he did before the injury), and a leap from him is desperately needed. He has the talent, but last year didn’t show the appropriate level of assertiveness. Thabo Sefolosha is a defensive specialist who also has 3-point shooting ability. With Kevin Martin in Minnesota, he’ll see more playing time. Reggie Jackson is a streaky shooter who should be able to fill in sufficiently while Westbrook is out. Oklahoma City isn’t the prohibitive favorite in the West like they were last season, but maybe that isn’t a bad thing.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
Franchise Players = PG Chris Paul, PF Blake GriffinFringe Stars = SG J.J. Redick, SG Jamal Crawford, C DeAndre Jordan
Supporting Cast = SG J.J. Redick, SF Matt Barnes, PG Darren Collison, SG Jared Dudley, C Byron Mullens
First Round Rookies = SG Reggie Bullock (1-25, North Carolina)
Outlook = Will the hiring of Doc Rivers be the final piece that lifts the Clippers into true championship contention? We know it can’t hurt now that Vinny Del Negro is no longer involved. After taking a step back last season, we expect Doc to get the most out of Blake Griffin. Blake needs to develop a consistent 15-footer to truly reach superstar status. Chris Paul will do his usual Chris Paul things, and he has plenty of great shooters to work with. J.J. Redick couldn’t of picked a better spot to land in free agency, as he is an ideal floor spacer. Resigning Matt Barnes was an unexpected bonus, as he brought much needed perimeter defense to the table. Darren Collison has been a disappointment ever since his breakout run subbing for an injured Chris Paul in 2010 for the Hornets, but he may be better suited for a bench role. Jared Dudley is also an underrated edition that brings plenty of versatility to the table. They may not be the favorite, but the Clippers will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.
4. Houston Rockets
Franchise Players = SG James Harden, C Dwight HowardFringe Stars = SF Chandler Parsons, PG Jeremy Lin, C Omer Asik
Supporting Cast = PG Patrick Beverly, SG Reggie Williams, SF Omri Casspi, SG Francisco Garcia
Rookies = None
Outlook = The unquestioned winner of the past two off-seasons, Houston finally has all the parts needed to make a serious title run. Reaching their ceiling depends entirely on whether or not they get the 2008-09 version of Dwight Howard. If they do, this is a more athletic version of the Orlando Magic squad D-12 dragged to the NBA Finals. James Harden is the perfect compliment to him, as he is more than qualified to carry the offensive load in crunch time. Chandler Parsons will benefit from sliding down to the third option offensively, and should be a more efficient player because of it. There’s some healthy competition at the point guard spot with Patrick Beverly nipping at the heels of Jeremy Lin. Beverly is the more complete defensive player, so don’t be shocked if he has the gig locked up by New Year’s. Either way, Lin will be a valuable offensive asset, with hitting the bench perhaps being in the best interest of the team. Omer Asik doesn’t project to be able to share the floor with Howard, and likely will have to be moved. He’s a great rebounder so don’t be shocked if Houston makes a mutually beneficial swap with an Eastern Conference club. If they can have chemistry established before the playoffs, the Rockets could be the team to knock off Miami in the Finals.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Franchise Players = PG Tony Parker, PF Tim DuncanFringe Stars = SF Kawhi Leonard, SG Manu Ginobili
Supporting Cast = C Tiago Splitter, SG Danny Green, SG Marco Belinelli, PF Boris Diaw, PF Matt Bonner
Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally, we worry about how a team will react to a devastating championship loss, but the Spurs are a different animal. We expect Greg Popovich (who sort of acted like he had money on the Heat during last year’s Finals, but we can save that conversation for another day) to have his group refocused. Duncan and Ginobili are another year older (which especially in Manu’s case, isn’t a good thing), but that might not matter much if Kawhi Leonard can translate his play from last season’s Finals into a full regular season. It could be argued that at times he was the second best player on the court against the Heat. An expanded role for Leonard will take a ton of heat off of the aging core of the team. Tony Parker is still in the prime of his career, and will maintain his place as the engine of the offense. Tiago Splitter was resigned, and may see some more low-post looks. Danny Green and Marco Belinelli in the fold, and each have the 3-point ability to swing games on their own. The road to the Finals will be tougher, but the Spurs still have the talent to get there.
2. Chicago Bulls
Franchise Players = PG Derrick Rose, C Joakim NoahFringe Stars = SF Luol Deng, PF Carlos Boozer, SG Jimmy Butler
Supporting Cast = PF Taj Gibson, PG Kirk Hinrich, SG Mike Dunleavy
First Round Rookies = SF Tony Snell (1-20, New Mexico)
Outlook = Has anyone’s preseason performance ever been more scrutinized than Derrick Rose? I’d say no, but it’s with good reason. After sitting out all of last year, Rose looks to be very close to his MVP form of 2010-11. Rose returns to a more talented team that also has the flexibility to make a blockbuster trade if it chooses too. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer are both on expiring contracts that could be used to bring in a quality asset (Boogie Cousins? Al Horford? Pau Gasol?). For the first time in his career, Rose has an emerging shooting guard alongside him in Jimmy Butler. Butler is a stat stuffer who does everything Coach Thibodeau asks him to do. Joakim Noah took a leap while Rose was out last year, putting the Bulls on his back on several occasions. Gibson, Hinrich, and Mike Dunleavy form a solid bench that gives Chicago a reliable top-8 come playoff time. They aren’t the best bet to win the title right now, but the right trade could push them over the edge.
The Favorite
1. Miami Heat
Franchise Players = SF Lebron James, SG Dwyane WadeFringe Stars = PF Chris Bosh, SG Ray Allen
Supporting Cast = PF Chris Anderson, PG Mario Chalmers, PF Udonis Haslem, PG Norris Cole, SF Shane Battier, SF Michael Beasley, C Greg Oden
Rookies = None
Outlook = It would be irresponsible to rank the two-time defending champs any lower than first. Dwyane Wade is getting older, and Chris Bosh was a shell of his former self in the NBA Finals against the Spurs (with the exception of the clutch offensive rebound and pass to Ray Allen in Game 6), but Lebron James masks any warts this team has. Lebron is at the peak of his powers, even adding 40% shooting on threes last season. Ray Allen has embraced his role with the Heat, stepping up when his name is called. Miami has the deepest bench in basketball, with a plethora of guys who can get hot and swing a game on any given night. If a medical miracle occurs and Greg Oden can somehow be healthy, you can cancel the 2014 Finals right now and give the trophy to the Heat.
