10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/23-9/25)

10. “Real Steel” Continues to Be Heavily Advertised on Television

            I’ve seen commercials for “Real Steel” roughly 1,200 times over the last three weeks. Every time one starts, I burst out laughing. Amazingly, someone doled out $80 million for a movie where Hugh Jackman becomes a creator of a life-sized Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robot (and we wonder why the economy is in the toilet). This film is supposed to be a “science-fiction drama”, but I’ll be stunned if it doesn't leak out that this movie is supposed to be a satire. That’s the only way it makes sense. 

9.  Bengals Wide Receiver Jerome Simpson Plays Four Days After Drug Bust at His Home

            Weird off the field situations always seem to impact the performance of a team. The most memorable incident for me was when Eugene Robinson was arrested for attempting to solicit sex from an undercover cop the night before Super Bowl 33 (made even more humorous because Robinson was named the NFL’s Man of the Year just hours before getting arrested). Robinson was roasted by John Elway multiple times, and Denver blew out Atlanta for their second straight Super Bowl victory.
            That event, and others that have followed (Raiders center Barrett Robbins going AWOL before Super Bowl 37, the man hunt for Vince Young a few years back) have taught me that messed up crap inevitably leads to losing. I originally was going to select Cincinnati to win this game before quickly remember that Jerome Simpson had almost 10 pounds of marijuana confiscated from his home. Without even considering that Alex Smith was going across the country to play a 1pm game on the east coast, I penciled in the 49ers as my pick. The offense looked like a limp noodle for three and a half quarters, but woke up just in time to make me feel really smart.

8. Texas A&M Officially Announces 2012 Move to SEC

            Not that the move had anything to do with their last game, but it is humorous to see Texas A&M bolt the Big 12 a day after giving away a 17 point lead at home against conference rival Oklahoma State.
     
7. LSU Takes Over #1 Ranking From Oklahoma
            I watched about ten minutes of LSU going on the road and dismantling West Virginia Saturday night. I’m not sure this team is any better than Oklahoma or Alabama, but they deserve he top spot after defeating three ranked opponents in the first four weeks.

6. Darren McFadden Runs All Over Jets, Leads Raiders to Victory

            I thought Oakland had a chance if it was a low scoring game, but never would’ve thought Run DMC would go completely bonkers in this one. For those of you that drafted him in the early part of the second round of your fantasy league, congratulations.

5. Lions Comeback From 20-0 Deficit, Win in Overtime Against Vikings

            I was at Story Land (a rinky-dink amusement park in the Mount Washington Valley, for those of you not familiar with New Hampshire hot-spots) during the early games, so while my wife was changing my son’s diaper, I called my dad for some scores. My dad has been Vikings fan for years (someday we’ll let him do an essay on this site about how much it sucks being a Minnesota fan), so I opened the conversation by asking how much the Vikings were losing by. Surprisingly, he informed me that Minnesota was leading 20-10 at the start of the fourth. Without blinking, I replied, “Well that’s plenty of time for Minnesota to blow the game.” Needless to say, laughter filled the Muir house when I got home and saw that Detroit won in overtime.

4. Tony Stewart Wins Second Straight Chase Race in New Hampshire

            If Stewart wins again next week, feel free to never read any insight into NASCAR I have to offer. 

3. Giants Break Michael Vick’s Right Hand, Stun Eagles in Philly

            This game would’ve been more fun for me if Vick weren’t the quarterback for one of my fantasy teams (a team that also lost Kenny Britt, who probably shredded a knee ligament or two against Denver today). Nevertheless, I’m very happy to see the “all-hype team” (copyrighted by Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan) struggling. You could argue that if some guy named Mike Kafka wasn’t involved the Eagles would be 3-0 right now, but I’ll take Philadelphia losses anyway I can get them.

2. Packers Take Care of Business in Chicago

            This is exactly what should happen when a champion travels on the road to play a mediocre team. Even more important for Green Bay, Ryan Grants looks like he has his mojo back.     

1. Bills End 15 Game Losing Streak Against Patriots

            I was chatting with a stranger the other day about how I thought the Patriots defense was terrible and Buffalo was going to score a ton of points on them. The guy, clearly perturbed, told me, “People that actually know what they are talking about say that New England will have the best defense in the league by Week 8.” Apparently who ever he listens to is under the impression that the Patriots’ cornerbacks will have growth spurts and become four inches taller. New England couldn’t cover anyone, and Brady kept throwing the ball to the wrong guys. Huge win for the Bills.

Cowboys-Redskins Pick

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Redskins

Washington beat an odd Giants team (don't trust New York after what happened today, that had more to do with Mike Kafka than anything any Giants player did), and then barely eked out a win at home against Arizona at home. Romo's broken rib and all, I think Dallas puts Washington in their place tomorrow night.

Dallas 24, Washington 13

Week 3 NFL Picks

Two programming notes…

1. There is no line yet for the Cowboys-Redskins game because of Romo’s rib injury. Hopefully there will be a line before Monday night.
2. I have to work early tomorrow, and I want to cram a game of Madden in before bed, so we’re keeping the analysis short this week.

EAGLES (-9) over Giants
            Nine points is about 3.5 higher than I would like. This game feels like a stay away.

Philadelphia 27 New York 17

Confidence = 2

49ers (+3) over BENGALS

            I’m only picking the 49ers because of the Jerome Simpson drug bust earlier this week. History has shown that crime and winning doesn’t mix, unless the 1990’s Dallas Cowboys are involved.

San Francisco 17, Cincinnati 10

Confidence = 11

Patriots (-8) over BILLS

            The over/under could be 65, and I would still bet the over.

New England 48, Buffalo 31

Confidence = 12

SAINTS (-4) over Texans

            Houston will represent themselves well, but look for Brees and company to squeak by.

New Orleans 34, Houston 27

Confidence = 6

BROWNS (-2.5) over Dolphins

            This game takes home the title for least amount of relevant fantasy contributors in one game.

Cleveland 10, Miami 7

Confidence = 10

Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
            The only thing offensively that Minnesota can do consistently is run the ball. Good luck this week against the Lions terrifying front four.

Detroit 21, Minnesota 7

Confidence = 5

TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos

            Impressive win last week by Tennessee. When Chris Johnson finally gets cranked up, watch out for the Titans.

Tennessee 27, Denver 17

Confidence = 15

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars

            Cam Newton won’t throw for 400 yards in this one, but he won’t have to against a team being led by fellow rookie Blaine Gabbert.

Carolina 20, Jacksonville 10

Confidence = 13

CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs

            This is a great week to start the Chargers defense in fantasy.

San Diego 41, Kansas City 7

Confidence = 14

Jets (-3) over RAIDERS

            I’d actually like to pick a push for this game, but I’ll sign off on an extra point.

New York 17, Oakland 13

Confidence = 4

Ravens (-4) over RAMS

            The schedule makers did no favors to the Rams this season.

Baltimore 21, St. Louis 3

Confidence = 9

BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Falcons

            A potent combination of an under the radar Tampa team mixed with a Falcons squad that is being a tad overrated after their win over Philly. Love Tampa in this one (loyal readers know what to do with a proclamation like that. Bet the opposite!)

Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 17

Confidence = 3

Cardinals (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS

            I hate this pick, but would hate it even more if my hopes of winning hinged on Tavaris Jackson.

Arizona 24, Seattle 14

Confidence = 8

Packers (-3.5) over BEARS

            Green Bay’s defense has looked pretty soft the first two weeks. Don’t expect that to be the case this Sunday facing a team that can’t block for Jay Cutler.

Green Bay 24, Chicago 10

Confidence = 7

Steelers (-10.5) over COLTS

            File this away in the “Would Be a Great Game if Manning Was Playing” department.

Pittsburgh 27, Indianapolis 0

Confidence = 16

Last Week’s Record = 8-6-2

Season Record = 17-11-4
Last Week’s Top-5 Record = 3-1-1
Season Top-5 Record = 6-2-2
Confidence Score = 153 out of 272

No Credentials "Mailbag" 9/23/11

            Good friend of the blog Ryan Brooks sent me this message via Facebook after I posted my Chase preview.

Answer my question dick.

            I guess it’s time for a No Credentials Mailbag. As always, these are real or fake questions from real or fake readers.

            What will I do when twelve-year-old girls don’t like me anymore? – Justin B., London, Ontario, Canada

            Hopefully you’ll fall so far out of the public eye that when your name randomly comes up in conversation ten years from now, people will wonder if you fell off the face of the Earth.
 
            Did Wade Phillips take over the Kansas City Chiefs while no one was looking? – Jason B., San Antonio, TX
            Wade’s doing a solid job as the Texans defensive coordinator so far (although playing the Colts and Dolphins weren’t exactly tough tests, we’ll see how Wade and the Texans’ defense fairs against New Orleans Sunday). It does appear that Todd Haley has taken a page out of the Wade Phillips 2010 playbook. The team is decimated by injuries, but that doesn’t excuse the lack of effort during the first two weeks. Haley is either actively trying to get fired or he’s been given orders to tank so Kansas City can get Andrew Luck. Speaking of Luck, here is the list of teams that appear to have a great shot at securing the number on pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Chiefs

Colts
Dolphins
49ers
Seahawks

            When did No Credentials become a straight NFL blog? What the hell? – Maria C., Saratoga, NY

            Sorry Maria, but baseball is boring, the NBA is in the middle of lockout (with no end in sight), I know you don’t want me to write about NASCAR (I can see my page views), NHL isn’t cranked up yet, Tiger Woods hasn’t started hooking up with porn stars so he can revive his golf career, I’m not home during the day enough to follow the Premier League, and it’s to damn hard to type a “j” after a “d” to talk about tennis. So you’re stuck with a whole lot of football talk.

            Can you estimate how many parties we left early in high school to go home and play Madden? – Ethan H., North Conway, NH

            I’ll set the over/under at 40. Note to all you kids out there that get yelled at by your parents because you play too much Madden. Just tell them that you could be out drinking and getting in trouble instead. I know my liver would’ve been much happier if I stayed home more often.

            I always knew I was a decent quarterback, but I didn’t realize I was that good until watching Kerry Collins start the first two games for the Colts. – Peyton M., Indianapolis, IN

            It’s insane how different the Colts look without Manning. This was literally the only team in the history of the NFL that built its defense around their quarterback (Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are built to rush the passer after their offense has given them a lead, not to stop the run in a tight game). It’s going to be a long year for the Colts.
            Jumping off of that idea, what happens if Indianapolis ends up with the top pick in the draft? Could Indianapolis get a better package if they traded Peyton Manning, or if they traded the rights to Andrew Luck? Herm Edwards will be out of action on ESPN for a while with an exploded skull if this happens.

            Hey man I’m a 19-year old college student at BU. I work at a local grocery store for beer money. The other day this fairly attractive lady came through my checkout line. She paid by check, so I had to see her license, and it turned out she was 57 years old.
            To make a long story short (and to pay homage to Bill Clinton), would it of been appropriate for me to engage in sexual relations with this woman, and if not, what are my guidelines in terms of what ages I can hook-up with? – Jackson D., Brighton, MA
            Social guideline questions…I don’t get enough of these! Here are my standard rules for both sexes if you find yourself in the clutches of a cougar (or a youngster).

18-52 = Fair Game. Adjust this number up or down based on the ratio of the opposite sex that is in the area you live in. For example, if you are a male in Alaska, go ahead and bump that top end number up to 60.

Once you hit the age of 38, add fifteen years to your limit. So if you’re 49, you’re good to go with someone who is 64.

Once you are 60, there is no top end restriction. 60-120 is all the same in the world of No Credentials.

              Can we expect to see an in-depth NHL preview? Preseason just started yesterday. – Luc P., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

            Wasn’t planning on it, but since the NBA is actively trying to destroy all the good will they built up last season, I do plan on flinging together a quick NHL preview within the next week or so. As long as there is no professional basketball, there will be plenty of hockey commentary throughout the season.

Give me the winner of the major MLB player awards this year and a one-sentence explanation of why that player deserves it. – Amy K., Cleveland, OH

            Haven’t watched enough baseball this year, but here’s an uninformed unprofessional writers opinion.

NL MVP = Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers – Not a sexy choice because Prince Fielder is also on the team, but Braun is one of the top all-around players in the game.

NL Cy Young = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – Kershaw has thrived despite the mess around him in Los Angeles.

AL MVP and AL Cy Young = Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers – You can make a case for Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, or Robinson Cano, but Detroit is a fourth place team if Verlander wasn’t pitching for them.

            If Jimmy cracks corn and no one cares, why is there a song about him? – Megan L., Silver Lake, NH

            The most logical explanation I could come up with on the web is that the song is about a slave who is celebrating because his master is away. Not a sexy answer, but it seems to be the most reasonable.      

            In your Chase Preview you said Tony Stewart would be lucky to run in the top-15 during the final ten races. He went out and won the first race at Chicago. Defend yourself. – Nicole, Augusta, GA
            To the uninformed reader that it may have looked like No Credentials was way off, but the bottom line is a driver who said himself he had no business being in The Chase stole a gas mileage race. He’ll look good in New Hampshire again this week, but it will be all down hill from there. Remember this paragraph when Stewart is hoisting the trophy in November.

            My girlfriend asked me about for an opinion about Casey Anthony. I said I knew nothing about her story, but thought she was kind of sexy. My girlfriend then quickly became my ex-girlfriend. Thoughts? – Derek E., Walpole, MA

            This question should’ve been in the mailbag two months ago, but unfortunately slipped through the cracks. About the only thing I can think of that women care about disproportionably more then men is the menstrual cycle. That’s it.  

            I can’t help it. I love words and how we can on occasion manipulate them to flow like a cascading waterfall. That flow of water never has and will not apologize for it’s continuous babble. If I smoke, I’d choke down a carton a day with Dice Clay and pick on Carlin for eating broccoli. If I drove a racecar, Goodyear’s profits would make Bill Gates feel poor. If I boxed, Tyson would not only be Van Gogh he would be neutered. Hell if I were banging rocks, Charlie Sheen would HAVE to admit I was winning. So forgive me for my long-winded approach to a seemingly simple question and answer.

              Okay, this rant is almost under control, so if licking on a given item (a Tootsie Pop I believe is its origin), how many licks does it take to get to the center? And once you get there, what is the relevance of the center? – Ryan B., Kearsarge, NH
            You almost lost me at Van Gogh, but I think I have a simple answer for this one (minus the how many licks part. That’s all relative to whatever proverbial Tootsie Pop you happen to be sucking on). Essentially, the relevance of getting to the center is the accomplishment of getting there. Whether your center is completing an important job, graduating college, or simply finishing a Tootsie Pop, it’s the conclusion of the journey that matters.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/16-9/18)

10. Pittsburgh and Syracuse Begin Process of Moving to ACC

            Chalk this one up as a win for greed, and a loss for tradition.

9. Mariano Rivera Ties the Saves Record
            One could argue that saves is one of the dumbest statistics in professional sports. In the grand scheme of things, there isn’t a difference between getting three outs in the ninth and three outs in the fifth. However, I won’t let that notion cloud the greatness of “The Hammer of God” (as he is affectionately referred to by Tony Kornheiser), Mariano Rivera.
            My greatest memory of Rivera will not be of any save, but how he’s bounced back from failures. This is a guy that blew the save in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series against Arizona. Also remember that 2004 doesn’t end the same way if Rivera were to successfully close down Games 4 or 5 against the Red Sox. His contributions to the 2004 Sox were so appreciated by Boston fans that he was given a standing ovation before 2005’s opening day at Fenway Park. Failures like this have significantly impacted or ended the careers of relievers like Mitch Williams, Brad Lidge, and Mark Wohlers. Rivera’s ability to move on from these moments and continue to dominate is what I will remember him the most for after he’s called it a career.

8. Floyd Mayweather Knocks Out Unsuspecting Opponent
            Similar to hooking up with a girl on her eighteenth birthday, Mayweather’s left hook and right jab were barely legal.

7. Hurricanes Win Corruption Bowl Over Ohio State

            Oh, this game wasn’t called the Corruption Bowl? I’m sorry. It should’ve been.

6. Cam Newton Throws For 400+ Again, and Annoys My Dad

            This week, Mike Muir’s excuses for why Cam Newton’s second straight 400-yard game wasn’t impressive were as follows.

A)    They lost the game (legitimate concern, but look at the Panthers roster. You aren’t winning many games with that rotten bunch of players).
B)     Green Bay was playing a prevent defense in the fourth quarter, allowing Newton to pile up garbage time yardage at the end of the game (Green Bay wasn’t up by two scores until two minutes left in the fourth, so this wasn’t the case to today).

            The bottom line is that as long as Newton continues to accept coaching, he has all the makings of a future franchise quarterback.

5. Patriots Win Passing Derby Against San Diego

            San Diego probably could’ve won this game if not for four turnovers, but San Diego seems to always have four turnovers in every game during the month of September. If San Diego gets their act together (which won’t be hard to do playing in the putrid AFC West), this is not a team New England wants to see in the playoffs.

4. Romo Leads Cowboys Comeback With Broken Rib

            Apparently Romo thought he needed to turn in a courageous performance in order to win back Cowboys fans that were disgusted by the debacle against the Jets. Ultimately, games like this are why I still cheer for the guy, even if he sometimes makes me want to pull my hair out. Oddly enough, my wife would use those exact words to describe our marriage.

3. Rays Trim Red Sox Wild-Card Lead To Two Games

             I’m a Red Sox fan, but as I grow further and further away from baseball, I’m starting to become more of a fan of chaos. If it were the Yankees about to overtake the Sox, I’d be bummed out, but how can you cheer against the Rays? They have a $35 million payroll (to put it in perspective, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford make more than that combined in one season), and their stadium looks like an abandoned Sam’s Club. Anytime a small market team is making a charge up the standings, count me in. Let’s introduce a little anarchy.

 2. Detroit Lions Annihilate Kansas City 48-3

            This epic beat down could’ve been number one, but Chiefs runningback Jamaal Charles was my first round pick on one of my three fantasy teams, and he blew his knee out. So in other words, I’m a little salty about this game. With as sloppy as Green Bay looked against the Panthers today, maybe we should start talking about the possibility of Detroit winning the NFC North.

1. Falcons Win Slugfest Against Philadelphia

            A game that started out as a Michael Vick homecoming turned into a bloodbath. Kudos to Atlanta for slamming Vick repeatedly to the turf, eventually knocking him out with a concussion. I didn’t think Atlanta had this kind of effort in them. This is the kind of win that can jumpstart a season.

Week 2 NFL Picks

SAINTS (-6.5) over Bears

            Expect a solid bounce back game for the Saints in their home opener.

New Orleans 24, Chicago 16

Confidence Score = 12

LIONS (-9) over Chiefs

            I can’t believe that A) the Lions are favored by nine over anyone, and B) that I’m picking them to cover.

Detroit 30, Kansas City 17

Confidence Score = 6

JETS (-9) over Jaguars

            Jacksonville eked out a win over a sloppy Titans team last week, but will have a much harder time moving the ball with any regularity against the Jets defense. You could set Jacksonville’s over/under for points in this game at 3.5, and I would still take the under.

New York 20, Jacksonville 0

Confidence Score = 15

BILLS (-3) over Raiders

            After slaughtering Kansas City last week, Buffalo now gets a team that played until almost 2 am eastern time last Monday. Furthermore, that same team has to fly across the country to play a game that will start 10 am west coast time. I don’t know who makes the NFL schedule, but if this were college football, I would suggest that a Bills booster paid off the schedule guy.

Buffalo 17, Oakland 7

Confidence Score = 11

Cardinals (+4) over REDSKINS

            I refuse to believe that Washington is any good for at least two more weeks.

Arizona 21, Washington 17

Confidence Score = 5

Ravens (-6) over TITANS

            This is a tricky one. Baltimore laid the smack down against the Steelers last week, while Tennessee didn’t find any continuity until it was too late against Jacksonville. I want to pick Tennessee to cover, but the Ravens are not a fun team as it is to establish an offensive rhythm. 

Baltimore 20, Tennessee 3

Confidence Score = 7

STEELERS (-14) over Seahawks

            What’s a good way to recover from a seven turnover performance against the Ravens? How about a date with Tavaris Jackson and the incredibly inept Seattle Seahawks?

Pittsburgh 31, Seattle 0

Confidence Score = 16

Packers (-10.5) over PANTHERS

            People are a little too excited about Cam Newton’s first start against Arizona. I think this line could be 20.5 and I would still pick the Packers.

Green Bay 38, Carolina 13

Confidence Score = 14

VIKINGS (-3) over Buccaneers

            This is a strange day, but Minnesota’s defense looked solid enough against Philip Rivers that they should be able to contain Josh Freeman at home.

Minnesota 20, Tampa Bay 13

Confidence Score = 8

COLTS (+2) over Browns

            Oddly enough, this is the hardest game on the entire slate to pick. After the egg Cleveland laid at home against the Bengals, I can’t vouch for them on the road, even against the Peyton-less Colts.

Indianapolis 24, Cleveland 21

Confidence Score = 1

Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS

            So let me get this straight…a team that nearly won in New York on the anniversary of 9/11 is only favored by three against a team that without two Ted Ginn kick returns, wouldn’t of even covered the spread against a horrendous Seattle team? This line would be 10.5 if Drew Brees were the quarterback instead of Tony Romo.

Dallas 31, San Francisco 17

Confidence Score = 13

Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS

            This is the kind of game that Houston needs to take care of business in to establish themselves as a playoff team. Miami is only 1-9 in their last ten home games.

Houston 21, Miami 14
Confidence Score = 10

PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers

            If this game were a month later, I would take the Chargers and the seven points. However, San Diego’s struggled at home against the Vikings, and always stinks the first month of the year, so expect New England to take care of business. For over/under junkies, feel free to wager your life savings on the over (only 53.5, which looks high, but we have Brady and Rivers dueling in this game).

New England 38, San Diego 28

Confidence Score = 4

Bengals (+3.5) over BRONCOS

            Cincinnati was fairly inept when Andy Dalton was under center last week. As soon as he was knocked out of the game, Bruce Gradkowski came in and moved the team up and down the field. Naturally, the Bengals are going to start Dalton this week. Surprisingly, I’m still picking them on the road thanks to Denver’s anti-home field advantage (TEBOW! TEBOW! TEBOW! TEBOW! For clarity’s sake, that’s not me cheering for Tebow, just the idiot Broncos fans who apparently really want to see their third string quarterback get some snaps).

Cincinnati 14, Denver 10

Confidence Score = 3

Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS

            What a juicy game. For those of you in the Atlanta area that are going to this game, here are some creative costume ideas.

A)    Dress up like a dog and bark. A lot.
B)     Wear a Vick Falcons jersey that has red stains all over it and a knife in the back.
C)    Still wear costume B, but wear a dog mask. And make sure you still bark.

           I’m predicting that Vick rises to the occasion, and the Falcons don’t (which seems to be a recurring theme for Matt Ryan and company).

Philadelphia 28, Atlanta 17

Confidence Score = 9

Rams (+6) over GIANTS

            The second hardest game to pick. When all else fails, take the points.

New York 17, St. Louis 14

Confidence Score = 2

Week 1 Record = 9-5-2

Confidence Score = 82 (out of 136)
Record With Top 5 Most Confident Games = 3-1-1

2011 Chase Preview

            Here’s how No Credentials ranks the twelve contenders for the Sprint Cup as we embark on the 10-race playoff. It looks like a year that will see a top four that is significantly better than everyone else, but stranger things have happened.

Fortunate to Be Here

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 18)

            After a fast start, Junior backed into the playoffs with a string of top-20 finishes, a maneuver patented by Jeremy Mayfield during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. The 88 bunch has done nothing to demonstrate they are capable of running in the top-5 consistently, and it doesn’t do him any favors to be third in the Hendrick Motorsports food chain. Perhaps this year just getting in will be enough for Dale, and next season he can build up to more of a championship caliber level. Junior has roughly the same chance of winning the title as a great-grandmother would have of appearing in Playboy.

11. Ryan Newman, #39 Army Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 24)

10. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 6)
            These two guys should probably share the driver of the year award, as the fact that they were able to pilot their mediocre race teams into the Chase is remarkable. With the exception of the second Chase race at Loudon (where Newman and Stewart finished 1-2), expect both drivers to struggle for top-15s.

Needs a Hug

9. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 7)

            No Credentials predicted that Hamlin wouldn’t have smooth sailing in 2011, but never thought it would be so bad that he would need a wildcard to get into the Chase. Maybe the relief of getting back into the playoffs (remember that Hamlin was so paranoid in the final month of the regular season he had his team switch from Gibbs engines to Toyota factory power) will turn the light bulb on for him, but I’ll predict that it will be until at least next season before Hamlin is a serious championship threat.
 
The Jackass
 
8. Kurt Busch, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Dodge, Penske Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 10)
            I’ll be honest…I like Kurt Busch. I’ve cheered for the guy ever since he drove in the Craftsmen Truck Series (although he was partially to blame for this Geoff Bodine crash that is the worst accident I have ever seen live). I was one of roughly 600 people in the United States that was pulling for him to win the inaugural Chase in 2004. However, at some point, the guy just needs to let go of his “feud” with Jimmie Johnson and just drive his damn car. Saying that Johnson needs to learn how to drive (insinuating that the #48 was so fast the last five years that Johnson didn’t need any skill) is ridiculous. The last time I checked, Johnson had won five titles, and Kurt has one.  

Fringe Contenders

7. Matt Kenseth, #17 Crown Royal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 9)

            It would be really nice to see the man who won the final Winston Cup (and effectively caused the suits running NASCAR to panic and throw together the Chase format) become the second driver to have won a title in both formats. His championship chances increase exponentially if Carl Edwards struggles, leaving Kenseth as the lead Roush driver.

6. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 5)

            Harvick had been in a funk ever since benefiting from Dale Jr. running out of gas at Charlotte. Perhaps stealing a win from Jeff Gordon at Richmond will break Harvick out of his funk.

The Wildcard

5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 25)
            If you told Brad Keselowski how well he would drive after he broke his ankle, he probably would’ve broken one back in January. It’s hard to think of any other driver in the last twenty years who has gone on a run like this. To put it in perspective, Keselowski wasn’t even in the top 20 after winning his first race of the year at Kansas. I find it hard to believe that Keselowski can keep it up for an entire championship run, but right now he has the best chance of hanging with the top four.

Top Non-Hendrick Threats

4. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 4)

            The 125 mph speeding ticket makes me question the whole “Kyle Busch has matured” storyline that has been floated out by numerous writers, but nevertheless Busch appears poised to have his best showing in the Chase.

3. Carl Edwards, #99 Aflac Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 3)

            Edwards hasn’t been as strong ever since rumors of him joining Joe Gibbs Racing were floated around. I probably should drop him to fourth, but I’ll drink the Kool-Aid and believe Edwards when he says that the #99 has been trying new set ups leading up to the Chase. He’s had success at almost every Chase venue (with the exception of Loudon and Martinsville). If he’s within four points of the lead going into Homestead, book Edwards for a championship celebration.

The Favorites

2. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 1)
1. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 2)
            Dropping Johnson behind Gordon isn’t a knock on Jimmie, but more of a testament to how well Jeff has run over the past month and a half. I expect both of these drivers to be neck in neck the whole way, with Talladega representing the biggest chance of a huge point swing between the two. It’s kind of insane to pick against Jimmie Johnson, but I’ll bank on Gordon equaling JJ with a fifth title this season.

Top 5 Epic Losses of the Tony Romo Era

            I complained during my review of the weekend about the Dallas Cowboys repeatedly attempting to clog my arteries with their epic losses they have suffered over the past decade. For those that don’t follow the Cowboys on a weekly basis, here were the five most gut wrenching losses of the Tony Romo era (I was also going to include some Quincy Carter and Drew Bledsoe games, but I’ve been doing a good job of forgetting that those two people actually played quarterback for my favorite football team).

5. 44-6 Loss at Philadelphia Eagles, 2008 Week 17

            As listless a performance by a squad that needed to win a game to make the playoffs as there has ever been. The entire team quit on poor old Wade Phillips. Amazingly, Phillips maintained employment with the Cowboys for another 26 games.

4. 14-10 Loss at Washington Redskins, 2010 Week 1

            This was a case of a superior team not only squandering the opportunity to score points, but simultaneously giving away points to the opposition. Dallas was down 3-0 with four seconds left in the first half when Tony Romo made this lateral to Tashard Choice.

            Dallas had a chance to win late, but an Alex Barron holding penalty negated a touchdown pass to Roy Williams as time expired. Things would get worse during Dallas’ 1-7 start, but this game was the catalyst.

  
3. 27-24 Loss at New York Jets, 2011 Week 1

            It's been two days, and I’m still struggling to figure out how a team on the one yard line, up seven, with eight minutes to play, goes on to lose a football game. I guess these are the elements you need for this sort of situation to occur.

1. The quarterback trying to be the hero instead of making the smart play (Romo diving for a touchdown instead of taking the sack and letting Dallas kick a field goal).
2. A bizarre special teams mistake (the blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown).
3. Still relying on a wide receiver, even though it was plainly obvious that said receiver was unable to run faster than Abe Vigoda (Romo’s off-balance throw to a gimpy Dez Bryant, which was easily intercepted by Darrelle Revis, who just happens to be the best cornerback in the NFL. It’s not like Dallas had other weapons such as Miles Austin and Jason Witten at their disposal…oh wait they did. That play will never make sense to me).

          I hope this loss doesn’t destroy the Cowboys’ season. Dallas dominated for 80% of the contest, and moved the ball through the air effortlessly against the best pass defense in the league. Don’t be surprised though if Dallas lays an egg in San Francisco this Sunday.

2. 21-20 Loss at Seattle Seahawks, 2007 Wild Card Game

   

 I remember two things from this game that are unrelated to Tony Romo’s epic botch of the snap on the final field goal attempt.

1. Miles Austin ran a kick back for a touchdown in this game. Keep in mind that this means he was on the roster during the 2006 regular season. He didn’t break out as a wide receiver until week six of the 2009 season. This means that it took over three years before the Cowboys figured out that Austin was capable of being an all-pro receiver. Call me crazy, but I think Bill Belichick would’ve solved that much faster.
2. During the Cowboys final drive of the game, I remember telling friends that I was watching the game with that I was terrified of Martin Gramatica. Gramatica was the kicker that season, who did have a couple of big moments during the regular season that year. Even when Dallas drove all the way to the two-yard line, I was still mentally preparing myself for Gramatica hooking a 19-yard field goal. Ironically enough, Gramatica was never given the chance to blow the game.

          Some of you may wonder how this game wasn’t number one on this list. For me, it boils down to the simple fact that this team had no chance of making it to the Super Bowl. If they won this game, they would’ve gotten their doors blown off at Soldier Field (the Bears defense was filthy that year). If Dallas somehow pulled off an upset over Chicago, they would’ve had to play a Saints squad that had already destroyed them earlier in the regular season. So really not much was squandered here, although it did spawn the “Tony Romo is a Choke Artist” fan club. 

1. 21-17 Loss vs. New York Giants, 2008 Divisional Round Game

            Forgive me while a write a few paragraphs about Patrick Crayton. For those of you that have already forgotten about him (which I’m assuming is most of you), Crayton was a mediocre wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys during the early years of the Tony Romo era. During the 13-3 year in 2007, Crayton had a bad habit of running his mouth. After getting shellacked at home by the juggernaut Patriots, Crayton had the audacity to suggest that both teams would meet again in the Super Bowl, and that Dallas would win. Crayton took it a step further going into their playoff game against the Giants, talking about how they had already beaten New York twice, and how they were going to do it again.

            In this case, karma proved to be a bitch. Crayton dropped three passes in this game, but none was bigger than this third and 14 halfway through the third quarter (sorry for the poor quality, it’s the only footage I could come up with on YouTube).

            If Crayton caught that ball, he more than likely would’ve scored. Dallas would’ve had a ten point lead against a Giants offense that only managed 76 yards in the second half of that game. Tragically, the Giants went on to pull off the upset of the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. I’ll never forgive Crayton for this drop, or his play in that game.   

           

Advice for Panicking Boston Red Sox Fans

Watch football instead. It's way more entertaining.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/9-9/11)

10. Indianapolis Colts Would Like Their Quarterback Back

            The Manning-less Colts looked like Van Halen after Diamond Dave left during their listless performance in Houston. If they shut Peyton down for the year, we have a new surprise #1 contender in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

9. Jeff Locke Makes Major League Debut

            Jeff could’ve given up 100 earned runs in one inning, and he still would’ve made the list. A tough third inning combined with a one-hitter from opposing starter Anibal Sanchez gave him no chance to win, but the Kennett High graduate carried himself well. 

8. Cam Newton Throws For 422 Yards

            One of the few things my wife and father share is a tremendous amount of disdain for Cam Newton. My dad didn’t budge after Newton’s record setting day, claiming that he only succeeded because he was playing Arizona. My wife is only slightly more impressed, simply shrugging her shoulders when she saw the highlights of his performance.

7. Late Caution Gives Win to Kevin Harvick at Richmond

            You know what was so fun about the battle between Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson at Atlanta last Tuesday? It was two great drivers sliding around on old tires instead of a gimmicky green-white-checkered finish. We had something similar going on at Richmond Saturday night, but a late race caution and quick pit stop by Harvick’s crew stole the win from Jeff Gordon.

6. Samantha Stosur Shocks Serena Williams, Wins US Open

            I wouldn’t know who Stosur was if she walked into my living room wearing a t-shirt that said, “Hi, My Name is Samantha Stosur”, but good for her for sweeping Serena in straight sets.

5. Matthew Stafford Carries Lions in Tampa

            Maybe it’s the tough economic times in Detroit. Maybe it was the incredible Chrysler commercial with Eminem. For whatever reason, I want the Detroit Lions to do well. Even after an interception that was returned for a touchdown, Stafford still held the fort and threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

4. KHL Team Honors Victims of Plane Crash

            I challenge you to watch any part of this ceremony and not get chills.

3. Buffalo Bills Smash Chiefs in Arrowhead

            The most puzzling result of Sunday’s games was the stunning egg Kansas City delivered in their home opener. The Chiefs were a popular preseason pick to regress (due to their much harder schedule), but no one thought a team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick would beat the living tar out of them at home.

2. Steelers Commit Seven Turnovers, Lose in Baltimore

            I was legitimately nervous about picking Pittsburgh to stumble out of the gate during my AFC Central Preview, but Ben Roethlisberger’s sloppy play against the Ravens validated that belief for at least one week.

1. Tony Romo, Punting Unit Give Away A Win Against Jets

Sometimes I wonder if the Cowboys have actively been trying to push me to another team over the past decade. To show how I felt even during the game, here is an exclusive conversation between No Credentials and Janice Larson, longtime friend and reader of the blog.

o                                                         Janice: How about those COWBOYS!?

·                                  No Credentials:

o                                                         i'm trying not to get to excited

o                                                         still a long time for the cowboys to screw this up

Keep in mind that Dallas was up 24-10 in the fourth quarter at this point. I’ll write about the pain of being a Dallas Cowboys fans during the past fifteen years later this week.

Week 1 NFL Picks

            Here’s our full slate of Week 1 picks. For each game, I will assign a “confidence score”. This will indicate which picks I feel the most comfortable with. For example, of the 16 Week 1 games, I felt the most confident about Green Bay covering a 5-point spread against New Orleans Thursday night, so the score for that game was a 16. For those of you who are foolish enough to make wagers based on my advice, I’d probably look at games that I assign a score of 10 or higher as solid selections against the point spread. Now on to the picks…

RAVENS (-1.5) over Steelers

            Ben Roethlisberger has owned Joe Flacco, going 6-0 against him (including two playoff wins). Look for Flacco and the Ravens to break through and hold serve at home.

Baltimore 15, Pittsburgh 13

Confidence Score = 1

Lions (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS

            A tough one for me, as Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford are two of my favorite under the radar fantasy quarterbacks. When faced with times of uncertainty, just take the points.

Detroit 23, Tampa Bay 17

Confidence Score = 3

Falcons (-2.5) over BEARS

            Jay Cutler may not know it yet, but a sack party is scheduled for 12pm Chicago time, and Ray Edwards and John Abraham are invited.

Atlanta 16, Chicago 7

Confidence Score = 4

CHIEFS (-6) over Bills

            On paper one might think this game should be a blowout, but remember that Buffalo pushed Kansas City to overtime last season in Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City 31, Buffalo 24

Confidence Score = 7

TEXANS (-9) over Colts

            For anyone that has ever doubted the ability of Peyton Manning, you are about to find out how good he is when Kerry Collins is taking the snaps for Indy. Expect Houston to let out some pent up frustration on them (unless Head Coach Gary Kubiak screws it up, which is a possibility).

Houston 45, Indianapolis 13

Confidence Score = 13

Eagles (-4.5) over RAMS

            St. Louis will keep it fairly close, but the Eagles have too many weapons.

Philadelphia 24, St. Louis 14
Confidence Score = 8

BROWNS (-6.5) over Bengals

            There are no circumstances that I will pick Cincinnati on the road, unless they are getting more than 14 points.

Cleveland 21, Cincinnati 6

Confidence Score = 14

Titans (+2) over JAGUARS

            So I can bet against a team that just cut it’s starting quarterback six days before their first game? And I’m getting two points? Where do I sign?

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 3

Confidence Score = 15

Giants (-3) over REDSKINS

            I don’t think FOX could’ve ended up with a worse game as their national telecast than this one. Couldn’t we have flipped this one with the Eagles-Rams game?

New York 17, Washington 10
Confidence Score = 9

CARDINALS (-7) over Panthers

            If Carolina hits double-digits in this game, that will be an accomplishment. It will be a while before Cam Newton will be able to guide an efficient offense.

Arizona 17, Carolina 0

Confidence Score = 12

49ERS (-5.5) over Seahawks

            It’s hard to believe that a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith would be 5.5-point favorites, but when you take into account the opponent will be captained by Tavaris Jackson, it’s understandable.

San Francisco 20, Seattle 7

Confidence Score = 11

Vikings (+8.5) over CHARGERS
            I’m not crazy about Minnesota, but San Diego has a tendency of scuffling during the month of September. They’ll pull the game out, but it will be closer than the experts think.

San Diego 20, Minnesota 17

Confidence Score = 6

Cowboys (+5) over JETS

            Call me a homer, but 5 points just feels too high. Expect a low scoring affair in the Meadowlands.

New York 14, Dallas 10
Confidence Score = 2

Patriots (-7) over DOLPHINS

            No Credentials isn’t banking on a banner day from Tom Brady, but does feel confident that Chad Henne will serve up something that resembles a crap sandwich.

New England 27, Miami 10

Confidence Score = 10

BRONCOS (-3) over Raiders

            We’ll find out if my prediction that Oakland will be a terrible team is correct after this game.

Denver 27, Oakland 17

Confidence Score = 5

Packers-Saints Pick

PACKERS (-5) over Saints

For those of you that have never played Madden before, let me explain the concept of "The No F***ing Way Game". This is a game that no matter what you try, the computer always has your number. You could struggle to tie the game after being down 21 to just see the computer somehow beat a prevent defense with an 80-yard bomb.

That's what New Orleans is faced with tonight in Green Bay. Ever since the NFL turned the opening Thursday night into a homecoming game for the defending Super Bowl champion, the road team has never won. If you plan on betting on the Saints, save time and set your money on fire instead.

Green Bay 34, New Orleans 27
Confidence Score = 16 (out of 16, will explain more during Week 1 picks column)

2011 AFC East Preview

4. Miami Dolphins

2010 Record = 7-9 (3^rd in Division)

Key Additions = RB Reggie Bush, LB Kevin Burnett, LB Jason Taylor
Key Losses = RB Ronnie Brown, RB Ricky Williams

Schedule = Patriots, Texans, @ Browns, @ Chargers, BYE, @ Jets, Broncos, @ Giants, @ Chiefs, Redskins, Bills, @ Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, @ Bills, @ Patriots, Jets

Real-Life Outlook = Miami’s defense is one of the most underrated units in the league (throw out two lopsided games against New England, and you have a defense that only gave up more than 18 points once), but offensive ineptitude rules the day. There’s about a 15% chance Chad Henne figures it all out and becomes a reliable NFL starter. He’s going to need to be, as the Dolphins runningback situation is the sketchiest in the league. Reggie Bush will look great in spurts, but is not effective enough between the tackles to be a reliable every-down back. Second round draft pick Daniel Thomas was a popular fantasy sleeper, but has done nothing to generate optimism during the pre-season. Expect the futility of the Dolphins’ backfield to undermine the efforts of the defense and top flight wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Ceiling = 8-8

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11

3. Buffalo Bills

2010 Record = 4-12 (4^th in Division)

Key Additions = LB Nick Barnett, LB Kirk Morrison
Key Losses = LB Paul Posluszny, S Donte Whitner, LB Aaron Maybin

Schedule = @ Chiefs, Raiders, Patriots, @ Bengals, Eagles, @ Giants, BYE, Redskins, Jets, @ Cowboys, @ Dolphins, @ Jets, Titans, @ Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @ Patriots

Real-Life Outlook = One of the friskiest 4-12 teams in NFL history, the 2010 Bills were a treat to watch. Expect more of the same this season, as Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starter from week 1 (fantasy folks, you could do much worse if you are in need of a bye-week fill-in than Fitzpatrick, depending on the match-up). Stevie Johnson could be in for the best season from a Bills wide out since Eric Moulds in 2002. Buffalo will be behind plenty again (in case you were wondering, the defense is still horrendous), so expect plenty of balls to be flying Johnson’s way.   

Ceiling = 8-8

Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

2. New York Jets

2010 Record = 11-5 (2^nd in Division, Lost AFC Championship Game @ Steelers)

Key Additions = WR Plaxico Burress, LB Aaron Maybin
Key Losses = WR Braylon Edwards, DE Shaun Ellis, DT Kris Jenkins, LB Jason Taylor

Schedule = Cowboys, Jaguars, @ Raiders, @ Ravens, @ Patriots, Dolphins, Chargers, BYE, @ Bills, Patriots, @ Broncos, Bills, @ Redskins, Chiefs, @ Eagles, Giants, @ Dolphins

Real-Life Outlook = So let me get this straight. A team that starts a quarterback that is barely able to complete half of his passes, that downgraded at wide receiver (believe it or not, Braylon Edwards is better than Plaxico), and lost three solid defensive starters is supposed to be a Super Bowl favorite? Unless Mark Sanchez turns into the 1998 version of Vinny Testaverde, this team is destined for another uneven 10-6 season (which most fan bases wouldn’t complain about, but obnoxious Jets fans won’t be satisfied).

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

1. New England Patriots

2010 Record = 14-2 (1^st in Division, Lost Divisional Round Game vs. Jets)

Key Additions = G Brian Waters, WR Chad Ochocinco, DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Shaun Ellis
Key Losses = DE Ty Warren, S Brandon Meriweather

Schedule = @ Dolphins, Chargers, @ Bills, @ Raiders, Jets, Cowboys, BYE, @ Steelers, Giants, @ Jets, Chiefs, @ Eagles, Colts, @ Redskins, @ Broncos, Dolphins, Bills

Real-Life Outlook = Only surpassed by Philadelphia in terms of the most high profile off season moves, New England appears poised to win another AFC East title. Signing perennial Pro Bowler Brian Waters will do wonders for the offensive line (expect a big season from Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, aka “The Firm”), and the Patriots young defense can only get better. Barring injury, New England will win the division.

Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4

2011 No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft Rounds 4-9

            This will be the last part of the mock draft for this year. With the lockout delaying free agency, that left little time for No Credentials to pump out the fantasy mock and division previews. With most people having their drafts this weekend, here’s a look at who you should consider in rounds four through nine.

4-37 = Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers

            Finley was on pace for over 1,000 yards before a knee injury ended his season.

4-38 = Stevie Johnson, WR, Bills

            Johnson will see even more balls now that Lee Evans is out of town.  

4-39 = Matt Schaub, QB, Texans

            The first of the second tier of quarterbacks, Schaub could put up numbers closer to his 2009 production if Arian Foster is hampered by hamstring injuries all season.

4-40 = Matt Forte, RB, Bears

            This is about 15 picks later than he will actually go in most drafts, but Marion Barber is going to steal most of his red-zone opportunities.

4-41 = Marques Colston, WR, Saints

            Colston is the most reliable target at Drew Brees’ disposal.

4-42 = Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles

            Maclin has dealt with an illness during most of training camp, but it looks like he will be healthy for week 1.
 
4-43 = Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
            One of the most surprising rookies of 2010, Williams is poised to take another step forward along with quarterback Josh Freeman.

4-44 = Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys

            Tony Romo’s favorite target should be very active again, especially with all the attention defenses will have to pay on Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.

4-45 = LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers

            He can’t catch to save his life, but Blount could be Michael Turner 2.0.

4-46 = Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

            If Roethlisberger didn’t miss four games last season, he would’ve thrown for over 4,000 yards.

4-47 = Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

            The uncertainty over the distribution of carries in New Orleans makes this pick about three rounds too early.

4-48 = Wes Welker, WR, Patriots

            Should be a lock for close to 100 receptions again.

5-49 = Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys

            A darling of the fantasy community right now. Hopefully he hasn’t been jinxed.

5-50 = Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos

            Lloyd’s stock is way up now that there is no chance Tebow will be taking snaps for the Broncos.

5-51 = Chad Ochocinco, WR, Patriots

            He won’t be the 2007 version of Randy Moss, but 75 catches for 1,100 yards will be fine from your second WR.

5-52 = Jahvid Best, RB, Lions

            If Best stays on the field, he can deliver a similar stat line to what LeSean McCoy is capable of producing.

5-53 = Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings

            I wouldn’t be shocked if Harvin cracks 90 receptions playing with Donovan McNabb.

5-54 = Shonn Greene, RB, Jets

           He was a fantasy dud last season. There’s a zero percent chance he will be on any of my rosters.

5-55 = Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

            Incompetent quarterback play hasn’t slowed Davis down at all.

5-56 = Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets

            A reliable option for the middle of the draft, Holmes should eclipse 1,000 yards as the Jets primary receiver.

5-57 = Mario Manningham, WR, Giants

            Getting a shot at filling the other Steve Smith role warrants selecting Manningham as your second receiver.

5-58 = DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers

            Williams would’ve gone 40 picks earlier if he signed with the Patriots.

5-59 = Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos

            Not a sexy pick, but Moreno will get a ton of reps in a run-first offense.

5-60 = Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

            Another not so sexy selection, but he’s a solid quarterback that you can count on week to week.

6-61 = Austin Collie, WR, Colts

            I’m not sure if his head is on straight, but Ethan loves him at this point in the draft.

6-62 = Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots

            The Firm doesn’t catch the ball, but will have plenty of red-zone work in a high-powered New England offense.

6-63 = Dallas Clark, TE, Colts

            Another high-profile tight end that went down early with an injury in 2010, Clark will catch tons of passes as Peyton Manning’s second best target.

6-64 = Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens

            Boldin was off to a hot start before being hampered by an injury the final month of the season.

6-65 = Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers

            Shared the title of “Biggest Fantasy Team Murderer” along with Shonn Greene in 2010.

6-66 = Ryan Grant, RB, Packers

            I hate this pick. Take James Starks two or three rounds later instead.

6-67 = Santana Moss, WR, Redskins

            The Ford Taurus of the wide receiver position. Book him for a boring 80 catches for 1,050 yards.

6-68 = Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

            This feels too early, but Jones should be a solid number three receiver.

6-69 = Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

            If we could translate his epic touchdown run against New Orleans into a full season, Lynch would run for 2,100 yards and 30 touchdowns.

6-70 = Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts

            Had a case of the drops last season, but Garcon still has the most upside of any Colts receiver.

6-71 = Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks

            It will be hard to determine whether Rice or Steve Smith is dealing with the worse quarterback situation.

6-72 = Eli Manning, QB, Giants

            He’s turnover prone, but piles on the yards.

7-73 = Kenny Britt, WR, Titans

            Britt should’ve gone twenty picks sooner, but Ethan is really worried Britt will end up in the slammer at some point during the season.

7-74 = Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals

            Ironically enough, a man who just got sentenced to 20 days in prison went right after Britt in this draft.

7-75 = Owen Daniels, TE, Texans

            This pick was way too late (I’ll play it safe and blame Ethan). Daniels should easily finish second on the Texans in receptions.

7-76 = Malcolm Floyd, WR, Chargers 

            He was knocked unconscious in Dallas a week ago.

7-77 = Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars

            This diminutive wide receiver will eclipse 75 receptions this season. Write it down.

7-78 = Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals
            This is a classic case of drafting someone who has an opportunity, despite the fact that they have never demonstrated they are capable of succeeding.

7-79 = Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams

            I’ll refer you to my NFC West preview for my Sims-Walker love-fest (I could use the page views!).

7-80 = Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints

            65 receptions and 700 yards are within reach for this second-year tight end.

7-81 = Kellen Winslow, TE, Buccaneers

            Unless the stink of the crooked Miami booster gets to him, Winslow will have another solid season in Tampa Bay.

7-82 = Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers

            I’m not crazy about drafting a strict touchdown vulture before the tenth round, but Tolbert also has ability to chip in with cheap receptions on third down situations.

7-83 = Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins

            Hightower stinks, but this is another case of opportunity knocking.

7-84 = Steve Smith, WR, Panthers

            I was begging for this almost a year ago, but can we please get Steve Smith shipped to a team with a solid quarterback before a violent crime occurs?

8-85 = Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins

            This pick looks better and better the deeper we get into the pre-season (at least in PPR leagues anyway).

8-86 = Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

            Not glamorous at all, but he’s the safest option in the Buffalo backfield.

8-87 = Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets

            Don’t expect a full 16 games, but expect touchdowns when he does suit up.

8-88 = Roy Williams, WR, Bears

            I don’t know why we took Williams this high. Egregious error on our part.
 
8-89 = Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
            Health permitting, Addai is capable of delivering top-15 RB value in PPR leagues.

8-90 = James Starks, RB, Packers

            It will take at least a year for Ryan Grant to get his legs under him. Starks should have the starting gig by week 8.

8-91 = Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers

            He’ll throw more interceptions this year, but expect close to 4,000 yards and almost 30 total touchdowns.

8-92 = Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

            I locked Stafford up as Michael Vick insurance for my first fantasy draft last night.

8-93 = Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons

            He’s old and crusty, and doesn’t dominate in the red zone like he used to, but 65 catches from a tight end in the eight round isn’t anything to complain about.

8-94 = Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers

            A leading candidate to be this year’s version of Brandon Lloyd.
 
8-95 = Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens
            Flacco was drafted as a potential break out star last year in fantasy leagues. He has now been reduced to a serviceable number two or platoon quarterback.

8-96 = Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants

            I’m not a huge fan of this pick. Jacobs’ best days are behind him.

9-97 = Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins

            While Reggie Bush shouldn’t be expected to be a full-time back, his emergence in the Dolphins’ backfield lessens some of the excitement leading into Daniel’s rookie year.

9-98 = Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos

            McGahee was reduced to the role of touchdown vulture the past two years, but could reemerge as a full-time back if Moreno struggles.

9-99 = A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

            Green has tons of talent, but a red head throwing him the football. It will at least be a year before Green has an impact in fantasy.

9-100 = Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers

            Remember in “Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan”, when Kirk screams “KHAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!” so loud that somehow it was heard in outer space? That’s how Stewart should’ve been screaming when DeAngelo Williams resigned with Carolina.

9-101 = Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

            His sterling Super Bowl performance combined with James Jones’ inconsistency could make Nelson the number two receiver for Aaron Rodgers.

9-102 = LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets

            LT is good back-up to have for bye weeks. Nothing more, nothing less.

9-103 = C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

            I’m not sure if Spiller will ever pan out in the NFL, but round nine is a decent spot to take a flier on him.

9-104 = Michael Bush, RB, Raiders

            Darren McFadden hasn’t exactly been bulletproof during his first few years in the league, and Bush has produced when used.

9-105 = Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints

            The PT Bruiser is productive when healthy. The problem here is that he’s never healthy.

9-106 = Kevin Kolb, QB, Cardinals

            When dealing with a quarterback that you have no clue either way how he will perform, it’s best to make sure you’re not relying on him on a weekly basis.

9-107 = Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

            It was a sneaky move by Carolina to acquire the talented Olsen. He could be a safety blanket for Cam Newton.

9-108 = Lance Moore, WR, Saints

            Moore isn’t exciting, but he’s a good bye-week plug in who’s capable of random 9-catch games.