Monday, June 30, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Ranks

            We’ve already taken a look at quarterbacks and runningbacks, and now it’s time to dive into the deepest position in fantasy football.

 


Tier 1 = Megatron


C.Johnson, DET

            The only thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR league, he can go fifth or later.

Tier-2 = Next Best Things


D.Thomas, DEN
A.Green, CIN
D.Bryant, DAL

            These three were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round, which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.

Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones


J.Jones, ATL
A.Brown, PIT
B.Marshall, CHI
A.Jeffrey, CHI
R.Cobb, GB
K.Allen, SD
J.Nelson, GB

            Barring unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns, they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.

Tier-4 = High-End Twos


V.Jackson, TB
L.Fitzgerald, ARI
W.Welker, DEN
M.Crabtree, SF
A.Johnson, HOU
P.Garcon, WAS
V.Cruz, NYG

            Whether it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.

Tier-5 = League Swingers


T.Hilton, IND
P.Harvin, SEA
J.Edelman, NE
T.Smith, BAL
D.Jackson, WAS
M.Floyd, ARI
C.Patterson, MIN
M.Wallace, MIA
K.Wright, TEN
M.Colston, NO
R.White, ATL

            With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.

Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets


E.Sanders, DEN
S.Watkins, BUF
A.Dobson, NE
D.Bowe, KC
E.Decker, NYJ
R.Wayne, IND
T.Williams, DAL
R.Randle, NYG
M.Evans, TB
H.Nicks, IND
J.Maclin, PHI
B.Cooks, NO
R.Cooper, PHI
A.Boldin, SF
B.Hartline, MIA
J.Jones, OAK
D.Amendola, NE
S.Smith, BAL
D.Hopkins, HOU
S.Johnson, SF
G.Tate, DET
C.Shorts, JAC
M.Jones, CIN
T.Austin, STL

            If you’re participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith), sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.  

Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench


J.Hunter, TEN
J.Boykin, GB
M.Wheaton, PIT
K.Stills, NO
M.Austin, CLE
H.Douglas, ATL
M.Williams, BUF
G.Jennings, MIN
K.Benjamin, CAR
J.Matthews, PHI

            We don’t forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis, but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers


N.Washington, TEN
K.Thompkins, NE
J.Cotchery, CAR
N.Buerlson, CLE
R.Woods, BUF
R.Streeter, OAK
M.Brown, BAL
D.Baldwin, SEA
D.Rogers, IND
O.Beckham, NYG
B.Lafell, NE
D.Moore, OAK

            These will likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.

Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds 3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.

Friday, June 27, 2014

NBA Draft First Round Grades

            We’ve graded each pick of the first round of the deepest NBA draft since 2003. These grades are loosely backed by statistics and actual evidence, so keep that in mind.

  1. Andrew Wiggins, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers – Arguably the most overanalyzed college basketball player of all-time, Wiggins’ stock eventually ended up where it was at the beginning of the year. He’s a better fit for the Cavs than Parker, so kudos to them for actually getting it right. Grade = A+
  2. Jabari Parker, SF, Milwaukee Bucks – It’s rare that an elite prospect actually wants to go to a place like Milwaukee, so it’s great to see Parker end up there. Him and the Greek Freak provide solid building blocks for the Bucks to build around. Grade = A+
  3. Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers – Embiid might not play this year, but when a dude’s ceiling is being the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon, you don’t let that dude fall out of the top 3. Philly doesn’t appear to be interested in being good anytime soon, so they’ll be patient. Grade = A+
  4. Aaron Gordon, PF, Orlando Magic – Instead of creating a potentially hellacious backcourt duo of Victor Oladipo and Dante Exum, Orlando instead opted for the relative safety of drafting a defensive monster in Gordon. He can guard multiple positions, and is capable of impacting a game without scoring a point. We like Gordon, but we’re grading the pick a bit lower because the ceiling isn’t as high as it wouldn’t been with Exum. Grade = B
  5. Dante Exum, PG-SG, Utah Jazz – Utah chose the path Orlando ignored, but unfortunately Trey Burke isn’t the athlete Oladipo is, so the ceiling isn’t as high for Utah. Regardless, it could be argued that only Embiid has greater overall potential, so kudos to Utah for gambling on the largely unknown Australian import. Grade = A-
  6. Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics – For a team in complete flux, it made sense for the Celtics to add a player that gives them the flexibility to move Rajon Rondo. Grade = A
  7. Julius Randle, PF, Los Angeles Lakers – When you can get a guy that was mentioned as one of the top-3 prospects before the college season, and then led his team to a national championship game appearance, at seven, you do it. Grade = A+
  8. Nik Stauskas, SG, Sacramento Kings – The first pick that felt like a panic move (they had been linked to Marcus Smart in most mock drafts), we would’ve rather see them take another point guard or Noah Vonleh. We won’t be shocked if Stauskas is eventually moved, as they are hell bent on acquiring a veteran impact player. Grade = C
  9. Noah Vonleh, PF, Charlotte Hornets – Vonleh fell into Charlotte’s lap at nine, and he’s a nice shot blocking compliment to Al Jefferson. If he develops long range shooting (which scouts think is possible), this is a franchise-changing pick for the Hornets. Grade = A+
  10. Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic (traded from 76ers) – Payton has all of the physical tools needed to succeed at the NBA level, and Orlando was wise to target him after passing on Exum. The first round pick they sent to Philadelphia was an extra pick Orlando received in the Andrew Bynum trade, so that was a decent price to pay to solidify their backcourt. Grade = A-
  11. Doug McDermott, SF, Chicago Bulls (traded from Nuggets – We thought McDermott needed to land in a near ideal situation to have success at the NBA level, and Chicago is one of the few teams that can offer it. He’s a better athlete than people give him credit for, and he’ll thrive jacking open jumpers created by Derrick Rose and possibly Carmelo Anthony. Grade = A
  12. Dario Saric, PF, Philadelphia 76ers (traded from Magic) – Saric is going to spend the next couple of years in Turkey, but that’s just fine for a Philadelphia team clearly not interested in competing for the next year or two. He’s a dark horse candidate to end up being one of the top-3 players out of this draft class. Buy stock in the 2018 76ers. Grade = A
  13. Zach LaVine, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves – LaVine is a project, which tells me that Kevin Love will definitely be gone before the calendar turns to August.
  14. T.J. Warren, SF, Phoenix Suns – Warren was the leading scorer in the ACC a year ago, but we don’t forecast his quirky game translating to the NBA. Adreian Payne would’ve made much more sense here as a stretch four to potentially replace Channing Frye. Grade = D+
  15. Adreian Payne, PF, Atlanta Hawks – Speaking of Payne, he went to a team hell bent on hoarding as many stretch bigs as possible. He’ll never be elite, but he has the tools to be a solid contributor on a contending team. Grade = B-
  16. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Denver Nuggets (traded from Bulls) – We aren’t a fan of this pick, but with picking up a second first rounder in their trade with Chicago, they could afford to stash a first rounder overseas. Grade = C-
  17. James Young, SF, Boston Celtics – Young was overshadowed by Randle and the Harrison twins, but the talent is there for him to blossom in the NBA like former Kentucky guard Eric Bledsoe has. Grade = B+
  18. Tyler Ennis, PG, Phoenix Suns – The strength of the Suns is their backcourt, so we thought this pick on a low-upside point guard was a bit of a waste. Grade = F
  19. Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets (traded from Bulls) – Picked by most experts before the draft to land in the back part of the lottery, Harris was one of the notable players who slipped. It seems like Denver has 43 shooting guards and small forwards on their team (to that end, they just reacquired Arron Afflalo hours before the draft), so we won’t be shocked if Harris is eventually moved. Grade = B
  20. Bruno Caboclo, SF, Toronto Raptors – We won’t pretend to know anything about Bruno, but this was the most mocked pick by the ESPN draft crew, so that warrants a low grade. It was a disappointing choice by an up and coming Raptors club. Grade = F
  21. Mitch McGary, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder’s biggest issue against the Spurs was a lack of offensive firepower beyond Durant and Westbrook. McGary doesn’t help that, and there were other players on the board that could’ve. Grade = F
  22. Jordan Adams, SG, Memphis Grizzlies – Not an elite shooter, but all he probably needs to do for Memphis next year is nail corner threes. Grade = C+
  23. Rodney Hood, SG-SF, Utah Jazz – Hood could’ve gone anywhere from 14 on, so he’s a steal here. Down the line an Exum-Burke-Hood trio could make a solid three-guard lineup.
  24. Shabazz Napier, PG, Miami Heat (traded from Hornets) – It’s fun that we’ll get the chance to see if a 22-year old small point guard will actually entice Lebron James to stay with the Heat. We’re not very high on Napier, as we predict him having a similar impact to the poop sandwich Miami rolled out at point guard last season. Still, kudos to them for making a move to appease King James. Grade = B+
  25. Clint Capela, PF, Houston Rockets – We’re guessing Houston was trying to move this pick to save cap space, but instead opted to draft an overseas asset. Grade = C
  26. P.J. Hairston, SG, Charlotte Hornets (traded from Heat) – Hairston had his issues at North Carolina, but is fortunate to get a chance to redeem himself in the same state. He has the talent of a top-10 player, so kudos to Charlotte for making a low-risk pick towards the end of the first round. Grade = A
  27. Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, Phoenix Suns – If he actually plays in the NBA, he’ll be in the running for having the most ridiculous name in the history of the NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION. Grade = C-
  28. C.J. Wilcox, SG, Los Angeles Clippers – This pick only makes sense if the Clippers are trading some of their 2s and 3s, but until that happens we’re grading it accordingly. Grade = D
  29. Josh Huestis, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder – Jay Bilas threw out a comparison to Bruce Bowen, which if he can hit open threes, would be a great find for the Thunder this late in the draft. Grade = B
  30. Kyle Anderson, PF, San Antonio Spurs – Naturally, the Spurs have a Boris-Diaw clone fall into their laps with the last pick in the draft. The rich get richer.

 

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Picking My Son's Team For Madden 15

            Back in the day, I used to waste way too much time playing Madden. I’d run multiple franchises (one with the Dallas Cowboys, another with me created as a quarterback on a crappy team, and another where I would simulate the entire season and manage all 32 teams) and play on-line (ranked somewhere around 2,100 in the world on PS2 sometime around 2005. As you could guess, I didn’t date much back then). These days, I only have time for one franchise, with virtually every game I play occurring well after my son goes to bed. Speaking of my spawn, he has replaced me as the person created for Madden (it would be a little weird to create yourself when you have a kid), and he’s already had a very successful virtual career. Let’s recap the stops he’s made.

Madden 11 = After failing to win a Super Bowl in his first three seasons, he piloted the Buffalo Bills to six straight titles before I ran the team into salary cap hell by trading players for draft picks after signing them to new contracts (true story… I’d never gotten that far into a franchise before, so I didn’t realize how the cap penalties worked yet. Needless to say, we only trade players on expiring deals now).

Madden 12 = Arriving in Seattle a year before Russell Wilson did in real life, my son dominated with the Seahawks. Seattle was the most complete team I’ve ever constructed in Madden.

Madden 13 = Taking his talents to Kansas City, Jamaal Charles was the most dynamic runningback my son got to play with during a rookie season.

Madden 25 = My son took over the Jacksonville Jaguars, which was extra fun because after one year I moved the team to Los Angeles and renamed them the Aftershocks. We’re into the sixth year of this franchise, and the Muir to Dez Bryant connection is lethal.

            We’re already looking ahead to Madden 15, and I want to figure out who my son is going to play for next. Here are the things we are looking for when we are trying to produce the best Madden franchise experience.

-         The quarterback situation should be awful. We don’t want to replace an established superstar (my son will not be replacing Tom Brady this year), a player a team has invested in as it’s franchise quarterback (sorry Rams fans, we don’t get the infatuation with Sam Bradford either), or a young quarterback drafted during one of the previous three drafts (Oakland would’ve been a slam dunk for this, but had to take a Carr brother in the second round).

-         The rest of the roster should be pretty shitty too. The more positions I have to reload through the draft or free agency, the better.

-         A stud rookie wide receiver or runningback would be nice.

            Today we’ll share our top-5 teams that were considered, with the number one team being the place my son will suit up for on the virtual gridiron.

5. New York Jets
QB Situation = Geno Smith is going into his sophomore campaign, and Michael Vick was brought in to push him
Why They Aren’t the Team = Of recent early round quarterback picks (recent being within the last three drafts), Geno appears to be the one with the least stability in terms of support from his own team. If he was in his fourth year, we probably would make the move to replace him.

4. Arizona Cardinals
QB Situation = Carson Palmer lost the ability to see defenders lurking in the flat shortly after joining the Raiders, which is sort of a problem.
Why They Aren’t the Team = Arizona is a little over qualified for my son’s services after winning 10 games last season. While it would be fun to throw to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, we don’t want to start off with things being too easy.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Situation = Tampa signed journeyman Josh McCown, and still has second-year QB Mike Glennon on the roster.
Why They Aren’t the Team = While not as stout overall as Arizona, getting to throw to Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans would be ridiculous in a rookie season. Doug Martin also is a guy whose talents are well suited for Madden, so we’d be piling up some easy Super Bowl wins very early.

2. Houston Texans
QB Situation = Passed on taking Johnny Fucking Football first overall, and are weirdly content with rolling into 2014 with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. Case Keenum is still around, and the team used a fourth round pick on Tom Savage.
Why They Almost Were the Team = Houston was the worst team in football last season, and even with using a mid-round pick on a quarterback, it’s unlikely their long term starter is on the roster.
Why They Aren’t the Team = Despite being so awful last season, they are still just two years removed from winning the AFC South. J.J. Watt leads a talented defense (we like to start our franchise mode with a defense that puts us in early holes), which with a little fine-tuning, would be too Super Bowl caliber for me in Madden.

 

1. Tennessee Titans
QB Situation = I think Jake Locker just hurt himself again, and we’re still more than two months away from playing real games.
Why They Are the Team = Locker is in the last year of his rookie deal, and has done nothing to establish himself as the QB the Titans need to build around. Furthermore, their starting runningback is a rookie (Chris Johnson is wearing a Jets uniform now), and while there is some decent talent at wide receiver, there isn’t a dominant player to make things too easy in year 1. Lastly, the defense is mediocre at best, and they are shifting to a 3-4. We’re not terribly excited about it, but my son will be leading the Tennessee Titans for the foreseeable future in Madden 15.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

2014 No Credentials NBA 30

            We’re starting our first set of season ending awards here at No Credentials, and here’s the criteria for how it works.

-         Based on regular and post-season results, we picked three players for ten different “teams” (the NBA has been obsessed with “Big 3s”, so this number makes sense).

-         Players were chosen based on who we would want to have under contract for the next four years, so youth and potential are favorable traits. Likewise, players like Tim Duncan were left off the list.

-         The second and third picks for each team were based on who was previously drafted on another club; meaning one team didn’t select two point guards or two centers.

-         This list was made from memory without looking at statistics for each player, although stats will be used in each player’s write-up.

-         Potential rookies were not included on the list.

Without further ado, the 2014 No Credentials NBA 30

Third Wheels


30. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors
            DeRozan posted career highs in points (22.7 per game), boards (4.3), and most importantly, assists (4.0) while helping lead the Raptors back into the postseason. He isn’t the most efficient player, but if he learns to stop chucking from the 3-point line (a shade over 30% while attempting almost 3 per game) that will improve. Quietly, he’s a top-5 SG at only the age of 24.

29. Al Jefferson, PF-C, Charlotte Hornets
            Big Al was the driving force behind Charlotte snagging the seventh seed in the East, posting his first season over 20 points and 10 boards per game since 2008-09. When it comes to scoring from the low post, few do it better than Jefferson.

28. Chris Bosh, PF, Miami Heat
            Bosh added semi-reliable three-point shooting to his skill-set this year, which added a new dimension to the Miami attack.             

27. Lance Stephenson, SG-SF, Indiana Pacers
            Stephenson obviously has his issues, but no one can question his desire to win. It would be interesting to see what could happen if we went to a team that offered a larger offensive workload, but he’s likely going to stay in Indiana.

26. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors
            Criminally underrated to the point that he was left off of the All-Star team, Lowry was Toronto’s MVP after Rudy Gay was shipped to Sacramento. When his head is on straight, he’s a championship caliber player.

25. Serge Ibaka, PF-C, Oklahoma City Thunder
            Ibaka’s value was fully realized when he sat out the first two games of the Western Conference Finals. His improved shooting from three point range bodes well for the future of the Thunder offense.

24. Eric Bledsoe, PG-SG, Phoenix Suns
            Fellow Sun Goran Dragic was also in the mix to make the 30, but ultimately Bledsoe’s upside pushed him ahead of his teammate. Health is the only thing holding Bledsoe back, and barring another injury, we are expecting a full breakout next year.

23. Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
            This feels a little low for Lillard, but when watching him he feels like a guy who’s already close to his ceiling. Comparing his numbers from his rookie and sophomore campaigns support that theory. Regardless, he’s still a big-time shot maker who delivered one of the top-5 moments of the playoffs with his series winning shot against the Rockets.

22. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks
            Dirk is the oldest guy on this list, but as good a shooter as he is we think he’d still hold value as a spot-up stretch four on the right team when he’s pushing 40.

21. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards
            Beal’s story is similar to DeRozan’s, except Beal can hit 3s and is four years younger. It isn’t ridiculous to think Beal could be the best shooting guard in the NBA as soon as next season.

Second Banana’s


20. Kevin Love, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
            Love is a gifted offensive player and fantastic rebounder, but the rest of his defensive skills leave much to be desired. A championship can be won with Love, but a rim-protecting center and an elite point guard are needed.

19. Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs
            Parker’s getting up there in age, which is concerning considering his game is predicated on his ability to get into the paint. Regardless, his role as a catalyst on the team that just won the Finals earns him a spot on this list.

18. Carmelo Anthony, SF-PF, New York Knicks
            I considered copying and pasting what I typed about Kevin Love here, but instead I’ll just tell you to reread Love’s right up and swap out “Love’ for “Carmelo”.

17. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
            It’s not Irving’s fault that he plays for a team that fired the same coach twice within four years. There’s a good chance Irving’s best years will happen on another team sometime down the road.

16. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers
            Griffin was a monster this year, but we’re still not putting him into the top-10. If he backs up the season he just had next year, we’ll have to push him that high.

15. Joakim Noah, PF-C, Chicago Bulls
            Noah was far and away the most consistent defensive player in the NBA this season, and he upped his value even more by posting a career high 5.4 assists per game this season. He’d be the perfect compliment for either Kevin Love or Carmelo Anthony.

14. James Harden, SG, Houston Rockets
            We’d like to see Harden revert more to his playmaking days from Oklahoma City rather than being a volume shot taker, but he’s still either the first or second best shooting guard in the league.

13. Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
            Howard quietly delivered what the Rockets were looking for when they signed him last year, with the only disappointing number being his blocks dipping under 2 per game for the first time since the 2006-07 season. Howard seems to be understanding that he doesn’t need to dominate the ball in the post, and should be even more effective if Houston is able to land another star player this off-season.

12. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
            Along with Howard, Gasol is the only other true center in the league that can adequately handle playing in a small-ball lineup. I’d like to see Memphis utilize him more, as his playmaking ability is elite for a man of his size.

11. DeMarcus Cousins, PF-C, Sacramento Kings
            I understand that Boogie is bonkers, but there’s no denying that he is the dominant low-post scorer in the NBA. If we didn’t have a history of behavior issues, he’d be in the top-5.

Franchise Players


10. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
            There’s a legitimate case to be made that Paul has a history of postseason choking, but there still isn’t another point guard I’d rather have running my half-court offense.

9. Paul George, SG-SF, Indiana Pacers
            George made a giant leap this season, but next year he needs to establish more game-to-game consistency to place him in the discussion of best players in the league.

8. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards
            Even if Derrick Rose (who was left off this list due to health concerns) returns near full strength, Wall will still be the best point guard in the Eastern Conference. We’ll go out on a limb and predict Wall makes his first run at League MVP next season.

7. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
            Aldridge is arguably the best 18-foot jump shooter in the league, which is a real asset for floor spacing. I don’t think anyone would’ve thought that Aldridge would be so highly regarded when he was drafted out of Texas.

6. Stephen Curry, PG-SG, Golden State Warriors
            The shot making has always been there, but it’s his 8.5 assists per game in 2013-14 that’s noteworthy. The turnovers need to come down, but Curry is well on his way to establishing himself as a true floor general.

5. Russell Westbrook, PG-SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
            More often than not this postseason, it was Westbrook taking the critical shots in crunch time instead of Kevin Durant. Whether that’s a bi-product of selfishness or being the guy with the biggest onions is up for debate, but there’s no doubt that Westbrook is a top-5 talent. Ultimately we’d love to see the Thunder find a point guard and shift Westbrook to the 2, as he would be fully unleashed to attack when he has the ball in his hands.

 
4. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
            At first glance, this seems like an epic overreaction to his NBA Finals MVP award, but Leonard truly deserves to be ranked this high. For starters, he’s only 22 years old. If he was on a team other than San Antonio, his points per game would be significantly higher, but his unselfishness makes him the perfect Spur. There’s no one better suited physically to guard Lebron James, and even when tasked with guarding the leagues best player he’s still able to produce on the offensive end. Do it all players like Leonard don’t grow on trees, and San Antonio is fortunate to have one of it’s pillars for the post Duncan era in place already.

3. Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
            The Brow was an absolute monster this year, and looks poised to lead the next generation of NBA stars after Lebron and Durant move on. His defensive production was never in doubt when he came out of Kentucky, but you’ll be hard pressed to find someone who thought he could average more than 20 points per game as a 20-year old. The sky truly is the limit for him, and he’s a dark horse to finish first on this list next season.

2. Kevin Durant, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
            Durant is a post-up game away from being the most dominant player in the league. His playmaking skills are already improved (he posted a career high assist rate this year), but he needs to be able to get the ball closer than 25 feet away from the basket in crunch time.

1. Lebron James, SF, Miami Heat
            Lebron’s no longer the most dominant offensive player on the planet (Durant has passed him there), but it’s his defense that gives him the top spot on our list. He’s the only player in the NBA capable of guarding point guards, wings, and power forwards. James has the most impact on defense on a nightly basis, and at 29, still has some prime years left in him.

            Here’s what our ten trios ended up being. Feel free to comment here, on Facebook, or Twitter to pass along your thoughts on our first annual NBA 30.

Team
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
1
Lebron James, Heat
DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
Bradley Beal, Wizards
2
Kevin Durant, Thunder
Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
3
Anthony Davis, Hornets
Dwight Howard, Rockets
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
4
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
James Harden, Rockets
Eric Bledsoe, Suns
5
Russell Westbrook, Thunder
Joakim Noah, Bulls
Serge Ibaka, Thunder
6
Stephen Curry, Warriors
Blake Griffin, Clippers
Kyle Lowry, Raptors
7
LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers
Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers
Lance Stephenson, Pacers
8
John Wall, Wizards
Carmelo Anthony, Knicks
Chris Bosh, Heat
9
Paul George, Pacers
Tony Parker, Spurs
Al Jefferson, Raptors
10
Chris Paul, Clippers
Kevin Love, Timberwolves
DeMar DeRozan, Raptors

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Runningback Ranks

            Our second set of fantasy football pre-season ranks takes a look at runningbacks. If you missed our piece on quarterbacks, click here.

 


Tier-1 = Barring Torn ACLs, Sure Things 

L.McCoy, PHI
J.Chaarles, KC

            Both of these players were Tier-2 guys last season, but have established enough consistency to share the top tier going in to 2014. McCoy is our first pick as of right now, as he should see the ball even more with Philly looking to run more without DeSean Jackson. Chaarles does get the nod in PPR leagues, as McCoy will forfeit a few catches to Darren Sproles.

 
Tier-2 = Next Best Things

M.Forte, CHI
E.Lacy, GB
A.Peterson, MIN

            Matt Forte has been so unappreciated for so long that it would only make sense that the one year he is a possible top-5 pick, he would end up blowing his knee out or something. In PPR, you should bump him into the top tier. Eddie Lacy is the best bet to lead the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE in rushing touchdowns, as he gets plenty of goal-line opportunities in a high-octane offense. The sky is the limit for Lacy if he gets to play his entire sophomore campaign with Aaron Rodgers. Peterson wasn’t bad last season, but his ceiling is lower than the first four backs on this list.

 
Tier-3 = Boom or Bust

M.Ball, DEN
L.Bell, PIT
A.Foster, HOU
D.Martin, TB
A.Morris, WAS
M.Lynch, SEA
G.Bernard, CIN
D.Murray, DAL
Z.Stacy, STL
R.Matthews, SD

            This is where things start to get dicey at runningback, as this eclectic group of runners is filled with both boom and bust potential. This group is so important to fantasy leagues this season that we will cover each back individually.

Montae Ball, Broncos – Based on the opportunity alone, you could make a valid case that Ball should be at the top of the second tier, we’d like to see how he responds to a high volume of work before pushing him into the top-5.

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers – Similar set-up as Ball, but the offense he plays on isn’t quite the same caliber. Pittsburgh has been dying to have a feature back since Willie Parker’s hey-day, so Bell should see plenty of work.

Arian Foster, Texans – A consensus top-5 pick last season, Foster’s season was ravaged by injuries. A bounce back season is certainly possible.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers – See Foster, Arian.

Alfred Morris, Redskins – Of the backs in this group, Morris is the safest pick, but he also has the lowest ceiling as he is virtually non-existent in the passing game.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch has the most carries in the league over the past three seasons, and coupled with some wacky rumors that he might retire, we’re not buying stock on Beast Mode right now.

Giovanni Bernard, Bengals – With The Firm finally being put out to pasture, Bernard should finally crack 20 touches per game on a consistent basis. He has the highest ceiling of any runningback in Tier-3.

DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Murray’s been mocked for his lack of durability, but there’s no doubting that when he’s on the field, he’s effective. Despite missing two games last year, Murray still racked up 1,121 yards on the ground and ten total touchdowns, while also averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry. The Cowboys commitment to improving the offensive line has benefited him more than anyone else. There’s a chance for elite production here, just make sure you have plenty of back-ups to cover the high probability that he’ll miss games.

Zac Stacy, Rams – Stacy was a workhorse during the second half of the season, and should be given all the carries he can handle. Our only knock on him was his paltry 3.9 yards per carry, and St. Louis’ inability to punch the ball in on the goal line.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Mathews created so much ill-will after destroying fantasy teams nationwide in 2012 that a solid 2013 campaign went largely unnoticed. For Mathews to make a run at Tier-2 status, he needs to reestablish himself as a key part of the Chargers passing game. He only recorded 26 receptions last year after tallying 50 in 2011.

            The reason this group is so vital to fantasy leagues this year is simple. Even in a 10-team league, five guys from this group will be drafted as #1 runningbacks, with the other half of the group providing the top group of #2s. Barring having some real luck with lottery tickets later in the draft (more on that later), these players are the least reliable starters you will draft on your team in terms of range of possible production. Whoever navigates Tier-3 the best will probably win your fantasy league this year.

Tier-4 = Lottery Tickets

R.Jennings, NYG
F.Gore, SF
C.Johnson, NYJ
S.Vereen, NE
R.Bush, DET
C.Spiller, BUF
P.Thomas, NO
B.Tate, CLE
K.Moreno, MIA
R.Rice, BAL
T.Gerhart, JAC
B.Sankey, TEN
A.Ellington, ARI
J.Bell, DET
S.Jackson, ATL
S.Ridley, NE

            Tier-4 is a smorgasbord of PPR kings (Vereen, Bush, Ellington, Bell), players in new places (Jennings, Johnson, Tate, Moreno, Gerhart), veterans who could be over the hill (Gore, Jackson, Rice), and guys who don’t have clear roles (Spiller, Thomas, Ellington, Ridley). If I find myself in a position where one of these guys has to be my second starting runningback, it will be imperative for me to draft as many other backs from this tier for insurance. Rashad Jennings is the safest bet to find himself in a consistent workhorse role every week, while Andre Ellington provides the highest ceiling.

Tier-5 = The Scrap Heap 

T.Richardson, IND
M.Jones-Drew, OAK
B.Pierce, BAL
F.Jackson, BUF
D.Williams, CAR

            While Richardson was a complete disaster last season, he’s the only back in this group I’d consider drafting to see if a turn around is possible.

Tier-6 = Handcuffs


D.Sproles, PHI
D.Freeman, ATL
M.Ingram, NO
T.West, CLE
D.Woodhead, SD
A.Brown, HOU
C.Ivory, NYJ
C.Hyde, SF
D.McFadden, OAK
L.Miller, MIA
R.Helu Jr., WAS
J.Hill, CIN
J.Stewart, CAR
S.Greene, TEN

            Once your starting line-up is set, these are the guys you need to target to fill out your bench. Someone from this bottom group is going to establish themselves as a valuable fantasy commodity before the year is out.

Conclusion = Runningback was starting to look more stable going into last season, but thanks to some untimely injuries and Trent Richardson forgetting how to play in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, we’re back to hard choices and big gambles. If you plan on using an early pick on Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, or a quarterback, you really have to do your homework and draft as many lottery tickets as possible. The more backs you get, the more likely you are to have someone that actually delivers. In a perfect world, both of my starting runningbacks would come from one of the top-3 tiers, but unless you are picking in the middle of the first round, that’s going to be very hard to do. Since runningback is the most position on the board, we aren’t posting a value adjusted ranking list like we did for quarterback.