2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receiver

            For years, wide receiver was a second-class citizen to runningbacks in the fantasy football world. Most would go RB-RB with their first two picks before even thinking about adding receivers. 2015 is ushering in a new era, as five wide receivers could conceivably be taken in the first round of a 12-team league. Even more incredibly, one of them isn’t named Calvin Johnson.

Tier-1 = The Elite

A.Brown, PIT

D.Bryant, DAL

D.Thomas, DEN

J.Jones, ATL

O.Beckham Jr., NYG

            In terms of per-game production, this group is head and shoulders above the rest of wide receiver field. It’s not necessarily that these guys have the highest ceilings, but their high floors make them the most reliable wide receivers in fantasy. All five are quarterback proof, and can be taken anywhere from the middle of the first round through the early second. We’re not as high on Beckham Jr. as most are due to his sketchy hamstrings (already causing issues in training camp) and the likelihood of statistical regression from his staggering second half performance in 2014.

Tier-2 = Solid #1s

C.Johnson, DET

A.Jeffrey, CHI

A.Green, CIN

J.Nelson, GB

R.Cobb, GB

M.Evans, TB

T.Hilton, IND

            Tier-2 isn’t far off of the first group, but a few question marks make them slightly riskier propositions. Of this group, Mike Evans has the best chance to leap into Tier-1 if Jameis Winston can be relatively functional under center for Tampa Bay. If you can somehow nab two receivers from the top-2 tiers, you’re in business.

Tier-3 = Serious Upside

J.Matthews, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

D.Hopkins, HOU

K.Benjamin, CAR

S.Watkins, BUF

            There is risk here, but also some serious profit potential in Tier-3. DeAndre Hopkins delivered a 1,200 yard season last year, and both Cooks and Watkins were on pace to do it before missing time with injuries. Jordan Matthews will move into a featured role in the Eagles offense with Jeremy Maclin out of town. Of the wide receivers, this tier has the best chance of deciding who wins your league. It’s a shame Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL, as there is no one on Carolina’s roster to fill even half of his expected production. 
  

Tier-4 = Solid #2s, Elite #3s

K.Allen, SD

E.Sanders, DEN

A.Johnson, IND

B.Marshall, NYJ

G.Tate, DET

C.Johnson, MIN

V.Jackson, TB

D.Jackson, WAS

J.Maclin, KC

            There are numbers to be had here, but the ceilings are low enough that this mostly veteran group is less desirable to No Credentials than the previous tier of youngsters. Keenan Allen has stated publicly he is in much better shape this off-season, and presents the best oppurtunity for top-10 production from this group. Charles Johnson has the most raw talent, but will likely be limited by a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Tier-5 = Assorted Range of Outcomes

J.Edelman, NE

A.Cooper, OAK

A.Robinson, JAC

T.Smith, SF

M.Bryant, PIT

P.Garcon, WAS

S.Smith Sr., BAL

M.Colston, NO

P.Harvin, BUF

K.Wright, TEN

M.Wallace, MIN

B.LaFell, NE

            Julian Edelman would be solidly in Tier-4 if not for Tom Brady’s suspension. In PPR leagues, you should still bump him up a group even if Brady’s suspension holds. Ideally you shouldn’t be relying on any of these receivers as a weekly starter, but if forced to do so you should draft two or three from this tier to give yourself a better chance of maximizing weekly match-ups.

Tier-6 = Overpriced Brand Names

R.White, ATL

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

E.Decker, NYJ

A.Boldin, SF

V.Cruz, NYG

            The name of the tier pretty much says it all. We’re not reaching for anyone out of this group, unless it’s in the thirteenth round of a draft or at the cost of $1 in an auction.

Tier-7 = Lottery Tickets

M.Jones, CIN

K.Britt, STL

R.Randle, NYG

S.Johnson, SD

M.Floyd, ARI

J.Landry, MIA

D.Adams, GB

T.Williams, DAL

J.Brown, ARI

J.Hunter, TEN

D.Baldwin, SEA

N.Toon, NO

A.Hurns, JAC

R.Woods, BUF

N.Agholer, PHI

K.Stills, MIA

D.Parker, MIN

B.Perriman, BAL

C.Latimer, DEN

D.Moncrief, IND

C.Matthews, SEA

M.Wheaton, PIT

            Here is the list of guys you should be looking at late in your draft or auction instead of using a tenth round pick on a kicker. Most of the guys listed here are either an injury or solid quarterback play away from having plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs

M.Crabtree, OAK

C.Shorts III, HOU

E.Royal, CHI

D.Bowe, CLE

B.Quick, STL

M.Floyd, SD

M.Sanu, CIN

S.Bailey, STL

G.Jennings, MIA

            I guarantee when one or two of your receivers is on a bye week, one of these guys will be on the waiver wire to fill in if needed.

Tier-9 = Joe Dirt

C.Beasley, DAL

            We love Cole Beasley here at No Credentials, and even if we would never in a million years waste a fantasy pick on him, we had to give him his own tier.

When to Draft Wide Receivers

            Wide Receiver has plenty of depth, so other than quarterback, it will be the hardest position to screw up on your fantasy roster. The current average draft prices give you a high probability of ending up with a Tier-1 or 2 receiver, a Tier-3 receiver, and a Tier-4 receiver as your starting trio. If you’re picking late in the first round in a 12-team league, it’s highly likely you could pair Demaryius Thomas with Julio Jones (I like the sound of that duo in a PPR league). The confidence you have in your starters will determine how many backup receivers you draft. A good rule of thumb is to only spend two bench spots on receivers, and save as many as possible for running backs. Ultimately, it will be hard for you not to have three quality receivers, but when you take them will impact the value you get from the other positions on your roster.

2014 AFC West Preview

4. Oakland Raiders

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Jets, Texans, @ Patriots, Dolphins, BYE, Chargers, Cardinals, @ Browns, @ Seahawks, Broncos, @ Chargers, Chiefs, @ Rams, 49ers, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Broncos

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Marcel Reece

Solid Contributors = WR James Jones, LT Donald Penn, C Stefen Wisniewski, DE LaMarr Woodley, DE Justin Tuck, DT Antonio Smith, CB Tarell Brown, SS Tyvon Branch

Impact Rookies = OLB Khalil Mack (1-5, Buffalo)

Good News = They’ve shed almost all of their dead contracts, giving them salary cap flexibility for the first time since the Jon Gruden era.

Bad News = In an anonymous player poll, Oakland was voted as the least desirable team to play for in the league.

Outlook = If the Raiders didn’t face such a hellacious schedule in 2014, we’d be a little more enthusiastic about their chances to reach .500 this year. As it stands, it’s an improved roster with plenty of long-term flexibility going forward. Matt Schaub was brought in to start the season at quarterback, but don’t be shocked if Derek Carr is the one who finishes it. Carr showed a much higher ceiling during the pre-season before suffering a concussion last Friday against Detroit. Against all odds, Darren McFadden resigned on a one-year prove it deal, and he’ll share carries with Jaguars castoff Maurice Jones-Drew. Perhaps if they start the year splitting carries, maybe one of them will still be healthy at the end of the year. The receiving core is interesting, but we aren’t confident that the current quarterback situation will be able to take advantage of it. James Jones was signed from Green Bay, and he provides a solid deep threat. Rod Streeter hauled in 60 passes last year (a lot of them from Matt McGloin!), and Denarius Moore has shown flashes of big play ability. The Raiders most intriguing offensive player is tight end Mychal Rivera, who after being drafted in the sixth round last year, will get the opportunity for full-time work this year. Oakland’s offensive line will feature four new starters, and the ability of that group to develop chemistry will be the biggest factor in the Raiders being a competent offensive club.

            Defensively is where the Raiders should plan to hang their hat this year, as the majority of their off-season moves were made to improve a unit that gave up the second most points in franchise history. Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith were all solid free agent pickups that immediately improve their defense. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers were brought over from across the Bay to bolster a defense that was the fifth worst in the NFL. Tyvon Branch only played two games last year, so his return to health will also provide a lift. The linebacking core is the weakest link of the group, with Khalil Mack needing to provide an immediate lift.

Prediction = The record will still stink, but at least the Raiders are moving in the right direction. 4-12

 3. Kansas City Chiefs

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in AFC West, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = Titans, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, Patriots, @ 49ers, BYE, @ Chargers, Rams, Jets, @ Bills, Seahawks, @ Raiders, Broncos, @ Cardinals, Raiders, @ Steelers, Chargers

Blue Chippers = HB Jamaal Charles, DT Dontari Poe

High Quality Players = MLB Derrick Johnson, OLB Justin Houston, OLB Tamba Hali, SS Eric Berry

Solid Contributors = WR Dwayne Bowe, DE Mike DeVito

Impact Rookies = DE Dee Ford (1-23, Auburn)

Good News = Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are healthy to start the season.

Bad News = Can you say regression?

Outlook = Last year, Kansas City parlayed the good fortune of facing one of the weakest schedules in recent memory into a playoff appearance. This year, they aren’t so fortunate. With the exception of their road trip to Oakland, none of their away games are easy on paper. That would make running the table at home almost a requirement if they are to make a playoff push, but with Denver, New England, and Seattle coming to Arrowhead, that is also unlikely. How competitive they are will likely depend on how much star pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are on the field. When they are causing havoc, this is one of the elite defensive units in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

            The offense should’ve been called “Jamaal Charles and the Kansas City Chiefs” last year, because he literally put the team on his back. Charles led the team in rushing and receiving while piling up a league high 19 total touchdowns. His ability to be effective in the passing game keeps his fantasy value high in spite of the retooled offensive line he’ll be working with this year. Kansas City lost three starters from their line last year, and desperately need Eric Fisher to emerge as a star in his first full season at left tackle. Carolina is the only team in the league that features a more pathetic core of wide receivers, as Dwayne Bowe looked washed up at times in 2013.

Prediction = Kansas City will struggle against the NFC West, which will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for their playoff hopes. 7-9

2. San Diego Chargers

2013 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC West, Lost AFC Divisional Game

2014 Schedule = @ Cardinals, Seahawks, @ Bills, Jaguars, Jets, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, BYE, Raiders, Rams, @ Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, @ 49ers, @ Chiefs

Blue Chippers = FS Eric Weddle

High Quality Players = QB Phillip Rivers, WR Keenan Allen

Solid Contributors = HB Ryan Matthews, HB Danny Woodhead, WR Malcolm Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, LT King Dunlap, C Nick Hardwick, RT D.J. Fluker, OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Brandon Flowers

Impact Rookies = CB Jason Verrett (1-25, TCU), OLB Jerry Attaochu (2-50, Georgia Tech)

Good News = Phillip Rivers has reestablished himself as a true franchise quarterback.

Bad News = San Diego still needs to prove it can be consistent week to week.

Outlook = The Chargers are one of the trendier dark horse picks in the AFC, and for good reason. Only division rival Denver generated more passing yards last year, and San Diego won five of their last six to sneak into the playoffs. The offense should still be very good, with depth across the board at all of the skill positions. If they can incorporate second-string tight end Ladarius Green into the rotation, the offense will become even more potent. Ryan Matthews wasn’t necessarily spectacular, but his surprising run of health provided stability in the running game. Keenan Allen was a sensation upon his insertion into the starting lineup, and should put up monster numbers with the chance to be featured for a full 16 games. Their offensive line was competent for the first time in years, and should take more steps forward with some progression by King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker.

            A porous pass defense is the main reason San Diego had to scratch and claw it’s way into a wildcard spot (they made Chiefs backup Chase McDaniel look like the second coming of Joe Montana in Week 17), but fortunately the Chargers were aggressive in addressing this weakness. Brandon Flowers was signed after he was released by Kansas City, and he will be paired with first round pick Jason Verrett in a rebuilt secondary. Jerry Attaochu will likely need to make a decent impact, because it’s hard to for see Dwight Freeney staying healthy the entire season.     

Prediction = San Diego will sneak up to 10 wins, but they still aren’t quite at Denver’s level yet. 10-6 

1. Denver Broncos

2013 Record = 13-3, AFC West Champions, Lost Super Bowl

2014 Schedule = Colts, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, BYE, Cardinals, @ Jets, 49ers, Chargers, @ Patriots, @ Raiders, @ Rams, Dolphins, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Chargers, @ Bengals, Raiders

Blue Chippers = QB Peyton Manning, OLB Von Miller

High Quality Players = WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Julius Thomas, LT Ryan Clady, RG Louis Vasquez, DT Terrance Knighton, DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib, CB Chris Harris, SS T.J. Ward

Solid Contributors = WR Wes Welker, LG Orlando Franklin, C Manny Ramirez, OLB Danny Trevathan

Impact Rookies = CB Bradley Roby (1-31, Ohio State), WR Cody Latimer (2-56, Indiana)

Good News = On paper, no team did more to improve it’s defense during the off-season than Denver.

Bad News = They get a Super Bowl rematch in Week 3.

Outlook = After getting obliterated by Seattle in the Super Bowl last February, it’s easy to point out flaws in the Broncos, and even make a case that San Diego could overtake them in their own division. However, when you take a step back and look at the overall landscape in the AFC, it’s easy to see that they are by far the deepest team in the Conference. Ryan Clady’s return will stabilize the entire offensive line, and the addition of DeMarcus Ware provides another elite pass rusher to take some pressure off of Von Miller. What could be the difference if Denver is to win a Super Bowl could be the health of Wes Welker and Chris Harris. Welker has suffered three concussions in the last 10 months, and Harris developed into a shutdown corner before going down with a knee injury in the playoffs.

Prediction = With or without Welker this season, the offense is solid enough to win another AFC West title. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the NFC South

Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the NFC North

2014 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Ranks

            We’ve already taken a look at quarterbacks and runningbacks, and now it’s time to dive into the deepest position in fantasy football.

 



Tier 1 = Megatron

C.Johnson, DET

            The only thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR league, he can go fifth or later.

Tier-2 = Next Best Things

D.Thomas, DEN

A.Green, CIN

D.Bryant, DAL

            These three were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round, which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.

Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones

J.Jones, ATL

A.Brown, PIT

B.Marshall, CHI

A.Jeffrey, CHI

R.Cobb, GB

K.Allen, SD

J.Nelson, GB

            Barring unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns, they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.

Tier-4 = High-End Twos

V.Jackson, TB

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

W.Welker, DEN

M.Crabtree, SF

A.Johnson, HOU

P.Garcon, WAS

V.Cruz, NYG

            Whether it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.

Tier-5 = League Swingers

T.Hilton, IND

P.Harvin, SEA

J.Edelman, NE

T.Smith, BAL

D.Jackson, WAS

M.Floyd, ARI

C.Patterson, MIN

M.Wallace, MIA

K.Wright, TEN

M.Colston, NO

R.White, ATL

            With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.

Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets

E.Sanders, DEN

S.Watkins, BUF

A.Dobson, NE

D.Bowe, KC

E.Decker, NYJ

R.Wayne, IND

T.Williams, DAL

R.Randle, NYG

M.Evans, TB

H.Nicks, IND

J.Maclin, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

R.Cooper, PHI

A.Boldin, SF

B.Hartline, MIA

J.Jones, OAK

D.Amendola, NE

S.Smith, BAL

D.Hopkins, HOU

S.Johnson, SF

G.Tate, DET

C.Shorts, JAC

M.Jones, CIN

T.Austin, STL

            If you’re participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith), sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.  

Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench

J.Hunter, TEN

J.Boykin, GB

M.Wheaton, PIT

K.Stills, NO

M.Austin, CLE

H.Douglas, ATL

M.Williams, BUF

G.Jennings, MIN

K.Benjamin, CAR

J.Matthews, PHI

            We don’t forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis, but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers

N.Washington, TEN

K.Thompkins, NE

J.Cotchery, CAR

N.Buerlson, CLE

R.Woods, BUF

R.Streeter, OAK

M.Brown, BAL

D.Baldwin, SEA

D.Rogers, IND

O.Beckham, NYG

B.Lafell, NE

D.Moore, OAK

            These will likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.

Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds 3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.