2014 AFC East Preview

            Our first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).



4. New York Jets

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Raiders, @ Packers, Bears, Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @ Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison
Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson
Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville), TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)

Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will take a snap under center.

Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?

Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East, the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets into playoff contention. 

Prediction = We’re guessing the defense will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it should’ve been last year. 5-11

3. Miami Dolphins

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders (London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @ Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets

Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake

High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy Starks, CB Brent Grimes
Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay, DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones
Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee), WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)

Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb plays.

Bad News = Junior bully Mike Pouncey will miss at least the first half of the season.

Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge. There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively, Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance. Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the league.

Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9

2. Buffalo Bills

2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @ Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets, Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots

Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams

High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell Dareus
Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson, DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes
Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)

Good News = They will return their entire pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.

Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.

Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them. Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.

Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7

1. New England Patriots

2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC Championship Game
2014 Schedule = @ Dolphins, @ Vikings, Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills

Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, FS Devin McCourty

High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins
Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern Illinois)

Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while) Week 1.

Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide receiver core.

Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high quality status by the end of the season.

            Offensively New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also proven capable at times.

Prediction = Dobson takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3

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Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
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