2014 AFC East Preview

            Our first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).



4. New York Jets

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Raiders, @ Packers, Bears, Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @ Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison
Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson
Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville), TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)

Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will take a snap under center.

Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?

Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East, the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets into playoff contention. 

Prediction = We’re guessing the defense will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it should’ve been last year. 5-11

3. Miami Dolphins

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders (London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @ Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets

Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake

High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy Starks, CB Brent Grimes
Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay, DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones
Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee), WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)

Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb plays.

Bad News = Junior bully Mike Pouncey will miss at least the first half of the season.

Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge. There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively, Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance. Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the league.

Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9

2. Buffalo Bills

2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @ Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets, Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots

Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams

High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell Dareus
Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson, DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes
Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)

Good News = They will return their entire pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.

Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.

Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them. Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.

Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7

1. New England Patriots

2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC Championship Game
2014 Schedule = @ Dolphins, @ Vikings, Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills

Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, FS Devin McCourty

High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins
Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern Illinois)

Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while) Week 1.

Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide receiver core.

Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high quality status by the end of the season.

            Offensively New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also proven capable at times.

Prediction = Dobson takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3

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Rounds 2-3 of the No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft

     Here’s rounds two and three of our mock draft. My friend Ethan was again along for the ride to have the final say on odd numbered teams, while I handled the even-numbered squads. If you missed Round 1 of the mock, click here.

Team 12, aka “Just Win Baby”

Pick 13 = Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders – He probably should be trusted more based off of his breakout last season. If healthy, has top-5 RB potential in PPR leagues.

Team 11, aka “Wandering Bear”

Pick 14 = Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers – No Credentials is all in on Philip Rivers this year. If somehow you are able to draft him in the third round, there’s a good chance you will win your league.

Team 10, aka “Twinning”

Pick 15 = Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions – One of these years, Megatron is going to put up 120 receptions with 1,600 receiving yards. If Stafford stays healthy (admittedly, a huge if), 2011 could be the year.

Team 9, aka “Hair”

Pick 16 = Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – Ethan wanted to take Brady at 14 until I talked him into Rivers. Even 16 seems high to me, but ESPN’s Matthew Berry has Brady ranked at 11 on his big board.

Team 8, aka “YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME”

Pick 17 = Michael Turner, RB, Falcons – Ethan was about to have an aneurysm because Turner was still on the board, so we finally took him at 17. I’m really down on him this season. He’s had a decent three-year run, but excess weight is bound to get the best of him eventually. Turner’s stock is lowered considerably in PPR leagues, as his pass catching ability is somewhere between poor and horrendous.

FANTASY TIP 2.1 = KNOW WHAT YOUR LEAGUE’S SCORING RULES ARE – This sounds fairly straightforward, but you would be surprised how many people don’t know whether or not a passing touchdown is worth four or six points in their league. Understanding the scoring nuances of your league will allow you to adjust a player’s value accordingly going into the draft. Turner is a great example of this. He’s ranked in the top 10 right now on Yahoo!, but that ranking is based off of a non-PPR league. If you are playing in a PPR, don’t be the schmuck that drafts Michael Turner at #8.

Team 7, aka “Sponge Worthy”

Pick 18 = Drew Brees, QB, Saints – 22 interceptions last season was a major anomaly. New Orleans’ improved rushing attack should allow Brees to take better care of the ball.

Team 6, aka “F*** the Constitution”

Pick 19 = Frank Gore, RB, 49ers – Gore has this nasty habit of missing multiple games every year, but when he’s healthy there aren’t many runningbacks in PPR leagues. An improved offensive line gives Gore a shot at 2,000 total yards.

Team 5, aka “R.I.P. AIM”

Pick 20 = Steven Jackson, RB, Rams – Jackson is a solid back who has been the victim of being surrounded by shoddy talent the past three years. If Sam Bradford can take a step forward, Jackson could score double-digit touchdowns.

Team 4, aka “In My Time of Dying”

Pick 21 = Greg Jennings, WR, Packers – My favorite second tier wide receiver, Jennings will benefit greatly from the return of Jermichael Finley.

Team 3, aka “The Great White Hope”

Pick 22 = Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns – Ethan isn’t as scared of The Madden Curse as I am (check out my AFC North preview for more details).

Team 2, aka “We Support Your War on Terror”

Pick 23 = Peyton Manning, QB, Colts – Manning might be rusty the first game or two, but if he puts up numbers similar to his 2008 production (when he missed all of the preseason after having an infection in his knee), you’ll be happy at season’s end.

Team 1, aka “The Dark Knight”

Pick 24 = Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts – Wayne was a certified fantasy team assassin in 2009, but bounced back with over 100 catches last season.

Team 1, aka “The Butler”

Pick 25 = Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys – Miles managed to be productive even with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee throwing him the ball last season, and Roy Williams lining up on the opposite side of the field. With a healthy Romo, and Dez Bryant as the full-time #2, expect big things. I should also note that I lobbied for my son to be named Miles, so you should take any No Credentials advice about him with a grain of salt.
Current Roster = RB Adrian Peterson, WR Reggie Wayne, WR Miles Austin

Team 2, aka “I Need a Post-Up Game”

Pick 26 = Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants – I’m not all-in on the Nicks bandwagon, but he will have a chance to crack 90 receptions with the other Steve Smith out of town.
Current Roster = RB Jamaal Charles, QB Peyton Manning, WR Hakeem Nicks

Team 3, aka “The High Life”

Pick 27 = Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars – Ethan was adamant that this team should draft a third runningback at this point. I probably replaced him after this pick, but we’ll see how a team built around three backs will do.
Current Roster = RB Arian Foster, RB Peyton Hillis, RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Team 4, aka “Good Times Bad Times”

Pick 28 = Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers – A full-year of Jackson (his first in the post-Tomlinson era) could be huge. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he ends up as the most valuable receiver in fantasy. In retrospect, I would’ve signed off on him going at 21 instead of Jennings.
Current Roster = QB Michael Vick, WR Greg Jennings, WR Vincent Jackson

Team 5, aka “That’s My Quarterback (sniffle, sniffle)”

Pick 29 = Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys – The last of the elite fantasy quarterbacks (emphasis on fantasy) comes off the board.
Current Roster = RB Chris Johnson, RB Steven Jackson, QB Tony Romo

Team 6, aka “Job Security”

Pick 30 = Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers – When healthy, Gates is far and away the best tight end in the game. In retrospect, it would make more sense for a team with one of the elite seven QBs to draft him (as it’s much easier to come up with a runningback or wide receiver who emerges either late in the draft or off the waiver wire).
Current Roster = WR Andre Johnson, RB Frank Gore, TE Antonio Gates

Team 7, aka “60 Minutes”

Pick 31 = Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers – No Credentials hasn’t liked a Steelers’ wide receiver this much since Yancey Thigpen in 1995. I wrote during round 1 of the mock that I think Pittsburgh will run the ball more this season, but that won’t hurt Wallace at all. If anything, that will option up a few play-action fly patterns for Wallace to run.
Current Roster = RB Ray Rice, QB Drew Brees, WR Mike Wallace

Team 8, aka “Krayzee Eyez Killah”

Pick 32 = Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs – I’m not crazy about Bowe this season (mostly due to his quarterback, read the AFC West preview for more details), but Bowe will go sometime in the third round in all drafts. You shouldn’t expect him to duplicate 2010’s touchdown total, but he could increase his receptions.
Current Roster = QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Michael Turner, WR Dwayne Bowe

Team 9, aka “The Enigma”

Pick 33 = Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys – The first risky/reckless/hardcore homer pick of the No Credentials mock. As long as Bryant stays away from malls, Bryant is a lock to score 10 touchdowns (or more) this season.
Current Roster = RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tom Brady, WR Dez Bryant

FANTASY TIP 2.2 = ONE HOMER PICK IS OKAY, TWO OR MORE IS A PROBLEM – Having one guy off of your fantasy team is fine in my book, but two or more can frustrate the hell out of you. A couple of years ago I had one team that had Romo, Marion Barber (who I traded for), Jason Witten (who I also traded for), and Miles Austin (who I picked up off the free agent list after he torched Kansas City for 250 yards). Things were going just fine with this set-up until Dallas traveled to Green Bay, and those four players scored a combined 13 fantasy points. It was brutal. Not only did my real life favorite football team embarrass itself, it also caused my fantasy team to be an embarrassment. From then forward I vowed not to invest too heavily into the Cowboys.

Team 10, aka “Herbal Frontier”

Pick 34 = Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants – I’m not crazy about Bradshaw, but he’s a solid PPR runningback who should continue to see the bulk of the carries as Brandon Jacobs continues to slow down.
Current Roster = WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Calvin Johnson, RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Team 11, aka “Cougar Hunters”

Pick 35 = DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles – The best home run hitter in the NFL, Jackson will have monster games and dud games throughout the season. Just know that going in before you take him.
Current Roster = WR Roddy White, QB Philip Rivers, WR DeSean Jackson

Team 12, aka “Ward Burton”

Pick 36 = Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins – I talked myself and Ethan into reaching on Marshall because I really believe that his head will be in the right place know that he’s properly medicated, but quarterback situation in Miami (barring a miracle trade to bring in Carson Palmer) will hurt his production. Marshall probably should’ve gone ten or fifteen picks later.
Current Roster = RB Rashard Mendenhall, RB Darren McFadden, WR Brandon Marshall

2011 AFC North Preview

This is our first division that gets to play the entire NFC West. Blame inflated win projections for the top three teams on that.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

2010 Record = 4-12, 4^th in Division

Key Additions = LB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements
Key Losses = QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Ochocinco, WR Terrell Owens, CB Johnathan Joseph

Schedule = @ Browns, @ Broncos, 49ers, Bills, @ Jaguars, Colts, BYE, @ Seahawks, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Ravens, Browns, @ Steelers, Texans, @ Rams, Cardinals, Ravens

Real-Life Outlook = I don’t know exactly what the record is for teams that started a red-headed rookie at quarterback, but I feel like it’s probably not very good. Kudos to the folks down in Cincinnati for completely overturning the roster (except for the part where they haven’t moved Carson Palmer yet. Wouldn’t a couple of draft picks be worth more than quarterback who has no intention of playing for you ever again? Palmer’s value will only drop the longer he doesn’t play. Remember this when the Seahawks trade a sixth round pick for Palmer next season). The great Liam Neeson said in “Batman Begins”, “When a forest grows out of control, a purging fire is natural and necessary.” That quote definitely applies here. Cincinnati is going to be awful this season, but things are looking up for them.

Fantasy Outlook = Rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has the most potential of any Bengals players, but fellow rookie Andy Dalton (and his red hair) will hold Green back from being a fantasy monster this season. Green is currently ranked 31^st by the fantasy experts at ESPN, which makes him a fringe #3 receiver or bye-week sub (depending on the size of your league). Cedric Benson is coming off an eventful off-season, but should be drafted by the ninth round as a third RB option. Tight end Jermaine Gresham shouldn’t be drafted, but monitor his performance the first couple of weeks to see if he clicks with Dalton. Rookie quarterbacks usually look for tight ends, so Gresham could be a solid PPR option. 

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Cleveland Browns

2010 Record = 5-11, 3^rd in Division

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = DE Matt Roth, CB Eric Wright, S Abram Elam

Schedule = Bengals, @ Colts, Dolphins, Titans, BYE, @ Raiders, Seahawks, @ 49ers, @ Texans, Rams, Jaguars, @ Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ Cardinals, @ Ravens, Steelers

Real-Life Outlook = Remember when Cleveland smashed New England last year during the first week of November just two weeks after winning in New Orleans? Somehow this team only won three other games the rest of the season. It would’ve been very easy for Cleveland to take Julio Jones with the fifth pick in the draft to give Colt McCoy a viable wide receiver, but I like how Cleveland shipped the pick to Atlanta for five extra draft picks. With Mike Holmgren running the show, Browns’ fans should have confidence that those picks will be used well. Look for Cleveland to be in a good place in 2014.

            With all that said, did you look at their schedule? Of their first eleven games, I’d give them at least a 40% chance of winning ten of them (their trip to Indianapolis being the one they’ll be heavy underdogs in). I could definitely see them starting the year 7-4 before losing their final five games (they play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice during this stretch, with a trip to Arizona stuck in the middle). To make a long story short, if you want to bet the over on Cleveland’s regular season win total (on Sportsbook.com, their over/under is 6.5), you have No Credentials full endorsement.     
Fantasy Outlook = It’s not smart to talk about Peyton Hillis before we discuss The Madden Curse. For those not in the know, this has to do with the Madden video game that comes out every year. Ever since players were first placed on the cover, it’s been misfortune for whoever was pictured. Here’s a list of what the curse has done in 12 years. 

The Madden Curse took away any lateral agility Eddie George ever had.

The Madden Curse allowed Daunte Culpepper to set the record for most fumbles lost in a single season during the 2001 campaign. Then for good measure, The Madden Curse shredded both of his knees in 2005 and ’06.

The Madden Curse ended Marshall Faulk’s string of 1,000+ yard-rushing seasons. He retired two years after appearing on the cover in 2002.

The Madden Curse snapped Michael Vick’s leg in half during the 2003 pre-season.

The Madden Curse broke Ray Lewis’ wrist.

The Madden Curse first inflicted a sports hernia on Donovan McNabb, and then as a finishing move, tore his ACL.

The Madden Curse injured Shaun Alexander’s foot, causing him to miss six games the year after he won the league MVP.

The Madden Curse is responsible for Vince Young’s career missteps since his rookie year (if I typed everything that’s happened to him, this post would be an extra 1,500 words).

The Madden Curse coerced Brett Favre into sending a picture of his penis to Jenn Sterger.

The Madden Curse sprained Troy Polamalu’s MCL in the first game of the 2009 season, and then knocked him out of action again with a PCL injury. It’s interesting to note that Larry Fitzgerald was also on the cover with Polamalu that year, but survived. Apparently The Madden Curse can only knock out one player per season.

Finally, The Madden Curse forced Drew Brees to throw a career high 22 interceptions.

            More than anything else, his presence on the cover of “Madden NFL 12” alone is reason for me to avoid Peyton Hillis. It’s not logical, but I’m not betting against a curse until someone is on the cover and wins the Super Bowl the same season.

            To get back to the business of relevant fantasy advice, tight end Kellen Winslow is the only other Brown that should be drafted. He’s another solid late-round option at that position.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

2010 Record = 12-4, 1^st in Division (Lost Super Bowl vs. Packers)

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = None

Schedule = @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ Colts, @ Texans, Titans, Jaguars, @ Cardinals, Patriots, Ravens, @ Bengals, BYE, @ Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Browns

Real-Life Outlook = In the season immediately following Pittsburgh’s previous Super Bowl victories, they have failed to make the playoffs the following year. Perhaps coming off of a loss will make them a little less content, but I still think there will be speed bumps for them that will prevent Pittsburgh from winning the North. Maybe a weird home loss against Tennessee or Jacksonville sandwiched between odd road losses at Houston and Arizona. Despite the prediction of an uneven start, Pittsburgh easily has the weakest opposing schedule of any 2010 division winner. Barring significant injuries, there is no way they should lose any of their last five games. The weak schedule should be enough for Pittsburgh to land at least an AFC Wildcard spot.

Fantasy Outlook = Ben Roethlisberger will be either the 8^th or 9^th quarterback taken in your fantasy draft. You’re going to want to draft a decent back up, as Big Ben is prone to holding on to the ball to long and taking a beating. Rashard Mendenhall is a late first or early second round pick at runningback. I have a hunch that Pittsburgh is going to run the ball more this season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mendenhall finish with 1,500 rushing yards. Mike Wallace is the AFC’s answer to DeSean Jackson. With Hines Ward getting older (and slower), expect Wallace to set a new career high in receptions. Ward is a fringe #3 in a 12-team league, but probably should be the fourth or fifth wide out you draft. Pittsburgh is one of the few fantasy defenses that you will be able to start every week of the season. 

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5

1. Baltimore Ravens

2010 Record = 12-4, 2^nd in Division (Lost in Divisional Round @ Steelers)

Key Additions = WR Lee Evans, FB Vonta Leach, S Bernard Pollard, RB Ricky Williams
Key Losses = RB Willis McGahee, T Jared Gaither, CB Josh Wilson, S Dawan Landry, TE Todd Heap

Schedule = Steelers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Jets, BYE, Texans, @ Jaguars, Cardinals, @ Steelers, @ Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @ Browns, Colts, @ Chargers, Browns, @ Bengals

Real-Life Outlook = The addition of Lee Evans makes a huge difference for the Ravens offense. While he isn’t as dynamic as Mike Wallace, he still is the first legitimate deep threat Baltimore has had since the team moved to Baltimore in 1996. If Flacco and Evans click early, running lanes will open up for Ray Rice, and underneath patterns will be more accessible for Anquan Boldin. Baltimore’s secondary was leaky last season, but an improved offense will allow them to play with the lead more often. With their front seven able to pin their ears back and attack opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore should bounce back as a top-5 defensive unit. 

Fantasy Outlook = It’s not all that often that a fullback is discussed in terms of fantasy, but that’s what I’m going to do here in relation to runningback Ray Rice. Baltimore was able to sign former Texans fullback Vonta Leach. Avid fantasy players may recall that Leach was Arian Foster’s lead blocker last season. Foster also just happened to be the top scoring player in fantasy football last season. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Rice gets a bump with a better fullback (and better offensive line play). If you can get him at any point after the sixth pick in your draft, you’ll be very fortunate.
            None of the other Ravens are elite fantasy options. Joe Flacco was a sleeper last season, but his disappointing 2010 drops him to the 15^th ranked quarterback on Yahoo!. It would be best to use him in a platoon situation, or as a back-up to Michael Vick or Tony Romo. Anquan Boldin got off to hot start, but disappeared during the final four games of 2010 (only 8 receptions for 67 yards during the fantasy playoffs). The presence of Lee Evans should help a bit, but keep in mind that last season was only the third time in Boldin’s career that he appeared in all sixteen games. Lee Evans should be drafted as a back-up only. His addition to the team will help the offense, but don’t expect Evans to have a monster season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 10-6
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4


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the AFC South
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the NFC South
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