4. Oakland Raiders
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = CB Nnamdi Asomugha, TE Zach Miller, G Robert Gallery, possibly DT John Henderson (still unsigned)
Schedule = @ Broncos, @ Bills, Jets, Patriots, @ Texans, Browns, Chiefs, BYE, Broncos, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Dolphins, @ Packers, Lions, @ Chiefs, Chargers
Real-Life Outlook = Oakland was a surprisingly spunky team last season that actually scored 37 more points than their opponents. Their strengths were a powerful running game (led by Darren McFadden, who finally showed why he was so highly regarded coming out of Arkansas) and a solid defense that kept them in games. The running game is intact, but the defense will be a shell of it’s former self. Asomugha took out the best wide receiver week in and week out, allowing the rest of the defense to focus on the other half of the field. With him gone, it’s going to be much easier for opposing quarterbacks to operate. A leaky defense will put the offense in deeper holes forcing quarterback Jason Campbell to make plays. Ask Redskins fans how things turn out when you need a play from Jason Campbell. This is another candidate for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
Fantasy Outlook = McFadden is currently the tenth runningback being taken in Yahoo! drafts, which is just about right. I like him more than Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew this year in PPR leagues. No one else offensively is worth being drafted, although you should monitor the performance of Oakland wide receivers early in the season. TE Zach Miller is gone, leaving roughly 60 passes up for grabs. Keep an eye on Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 4-12
3. Denver Broncos
Key Additions = RB Willis McGahee
Key Losses = T Ryan Harris
Schedule = Raiders, Bengals, @ Titans, @ Packers, Chargers, BYE, @ Dolphins, Lions, @ Raiders, @ Chiefs, Jets, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs
Real-Life Outlook = John Fox has made a career out of getting the most out of rosters (the guy did coach a team that had Jake Delhomme playing quarterback all the way to the Super Bowl one year), and this season should be no different. Unfortunately, that means he will be lucky to squeeze 6 wins out of a roster that should only generate three. The defense still has holes, but they can’t play any worse than they did last season.
Fantasy Outlook = Kyle Orton is nothing more than a fantasy backup at best. Denver will not throw the ball nearly as much as they did when Josh McDaniels was calling the plays. If Knowshon Moreno is ever to do anything in the NFL, this is the season he needs to do it. He will be the lead back in a run first offense. Brandon Lloyd will still be productive (as long as Tebow is off the field), but don't expect him to pile up the same amount of yards he did last season. I expect him to settle somewhere around the 1,100 range, with 8 touchdowns.
Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Key Additions = T Jared Gaither, WR Steve Breaston
Key Losses = None
Schedule = Bills, @ Lions, @ Chargers, Vikings, @ Colts, BYE, @ Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @ Patriots, Steelers, @ Bears, @ Jets, Packers, Raiders, @ Broncos
Real-Life Outlook = A whole lot of things went right for Kansas City last year until they were crushed at home in the playoffs. Jamaal Charles emerged as the next great fantasy runningback (more on that in the next section), while Thomas Jones spelled him effectively. Buoyed by their young secondary, the Chiefs defense was as solid as it has been since the Marty Schottenheimer era. Most importantly, Matt Cassel was competent enough that he didn’t derail the Chiefs division-winning season.
Looking ahead, I think Cassel is what’s going to hold this team back. His ability to throw the ball downfield is sub-par at best (the guy couldn’t even figure out how to complete a bomb to Randy Moss when Moss was still in his prime), and his poor pocket awareness will undo the team against a much harder schedule. Last year, Kansas City got to play the entire NFC West. This year, they face the NFC North. You could argue that all four NFC North teams are better than any team in the West. Kansas City won’t be able to run the ball 65% of the time to protect Cassel.
Fantasy Outlook = Even though I just bashed him in the last paragraph, Cassel is a decent back-up QB option to target late. Assuming he’s still healthy going into week 16, his match-up against Oakland will be one of the best ones any quarterback will have during the championship week of most fantasy leagues. On average, Jamaal Charles is the 5th pick in all Yahoo! drafts. I fully endorse taking him over any other runningback not named Adrian Peterson. Dwayne Bowe is the 10th wide receiver being taken in most drafts. He can be lazy at times (name me a wide receiver that isn’t), but he should be able to deliver at least 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Kansas City’s defense is borderline start-able, but keep in mind that they have a much tougher schedule. You won’t want anything to do with them when they play the Colts, Patriots, or Packers.
Ceiling = 11-5
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8
1. San Diego Chargers
2010 Record = 9-7, 2nd in Division
Key Additions = LB Takeo Spikes
Key Losses = RB Darren Sproles, LB Kevin Burnett
Schedule = Vikings, @ Patriots, Chiefs, Dolphins, @ Broncos, BYE, @ Jets, @ Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, @ Bears, Broncos, @ Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, @ Lions, @ Raiders
Real-Life Outlook = San Diego’s 2011 season was one of the strangest in league history. Philip Rivers led the offense to score 441 points, a total only topped by the Patriots. The defense held opponents to 322, good for 9th. However, costly turnovers crippled them, and the team with the 5th best point differential in the league missed the playoffs.
One could argue that last season was a fluke, and San Diego should rebound to post a double-digit win campaign. The only strong argument against this is Norv Turner still filling the role of Head Coach. Norv is a fantastic offensive coordinator (he filled that role for the 1992 and 1993 Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys), but has consistently come up flat as a headman. I trust him just enough to lead this team to a division title, but won’t be putting any money on Norv once the calendar hits January of 2012.
Fantasy Outlook = Philip Rivers is one of the six elite fantasy QBs. Currently going at the start of the 3rd round in 12-team leagues, Rivers should continue to pile up yards and touchdowns this season. I would take him over Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady this season. Ryan Matthews was a dud last year, but certainly has plenty of post-hype sleeper potential. Antonio Gates is the most dominant fantasy tight end in the game. If you have a chance to take him at any point in the 4th round, do it, even with concerns about his ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis. Vincent Jackson will be on board for the entire season, and is capable of producing #1 receiver numbers. He’s currently the 13th wide-out coming off the board. Also watch out for whoever emerges as the #2 receiver. With as much as San Diego throws the ball, there is enough room for Gates, Jackson, and another receiver to go over 1,000 yards. Lastly, San Diego’s defense will be worthy of starting virtually every week.
Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4
Click the links below to read about
the AFC North
the AFC South
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC South
the NFC West
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