2010 Record = 2-14 (4th in Division)
Key Additions = NoneKey Losses = QB Matt Moore, CB Richard Marshall
Schedule = @ Cardinals, Packers, Jaguars, @ Bears, Saints, @ Falcons, Redskins, Vikings, BYE, Titans, @ Lions, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Texans, Buccaneers, @ Saints
Real-Life Outlook = It’s hard to put into words how awful Carolina was last season. They were outscored by 212 points last season, which was “tops” in the league by 67 points. The Panthers offense just barely averaged 12 points per game. Steve Smith was so pissed off about the atrocious quarterback play that he went on a religious retreat to figure out the reason why God was punishing him (alright, I made that last one up, but that wasn’t so far fetched was it?). Carolina will be just as awful this year, but at least there will be a shred of hope for the future with Cam Newton under center (unless you think he’s the next JaMarcus Russell instead of the next Ben Roethlisberger).
Fantasy Outlook = It’s rare that a decision by a player to rejoin a team destroys his fantasy value as well as a teammates, but that’s exactly what happened when DeAngelo Williams resigned with Carolina. Instead of both Williams and teammate Jonathan Stewart being candidates to be chosen among the top-10 runningbacks, Williams is now a 3rd or 4th rounder while Stewart should fall somewhere between the 6th and 8th. You shouldn’t draft either of these guys, but target either of them early in the season through a trade. Let’s say you trade a wide receiver you drafted in the 9th round who has gotten off to a fast start for either Panther runningback (the owner of both of them will more than likely be very frustrated with them). If you land either of them on the cheap, and then the other one gets hurt, you have yourself a player that will be facing Houston and Tampa Bay during the fantasy playoffs (two teams that weren’t known for tough run defense last season). So to make a long story short, don’t draft either of them (unless it’s the 10th round or something and you can grab Stewart), but try to trade for both players after the season starts. As for Smith, unless he gets shipped out of town before the season starts, you shouldn’t plan on him being anything more than a 3rd receiver. He’s currently going towards the end of the 6th round in 12-team leagues, which is probably about two rounds too high given the quarterback situation he’s stuck with.
Ceiling = 4-12
Floor = 1-15 (thankfully for them, they get the Redskins at home)No Credentials Prediction = 2-14
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2010 Record = 10-6 (3rd in Division)
Key Additions = NoneKey Losses = LB Barrett Ruud, RB Cadillac Williams
Schedule = Lions, @ Vikings, Falcons, Colts, @ 49ers, Saints, Bears, BYE, @ Saints, Texans, @ Packers, @ Titans, Panthers, @ Jaguars, Cowboys, @ Panthers, @ Falcons
Real-Life Outlook = With one of the best young foundations in football (Scouts Inc. rated Tampa’s players that were 25 or younger better than any other team in the league), the Buccaneers certainly have much to look forward to the next five seasons. Josh Freeman looks like he will go down as the steal of the 2009 draft. LeGarrette Blount wasn’t even drafted last season, but still managed to run for just over 1,000 yards. Mike Williams was taken in the fourth round of last season’s draft, but caught 65 passes and 11 touchdowns. Offensively this team has pieces, but it looks like the defense will be what holds Tampa Bay back. The defensive line will be better with second round pick Da’Quan Bowers stepping in at defensive end, but expect Tampa to give up plenty of yards through the air. Ronde Barber is a shadow of his former self, and with Aqib Talib’s legal issues that will potentially keep him off the field the Buccaneers are going to have a hard time covering anybody. The defense will have to get a super human effort from the front-seven in order to be effective.
Fantasy Outlook = Freeman is currently the last starting fantasy quarterback being taken in Yahoo! drafts. If you don’t get one of the elite seven (Vick, Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Rivers, Romo), I fully endorse skipping the likes of Schaub and Roethlisberger to instead scoop up Freeman in the ninth round. This will be the last season you will be able to get Freeman this late. I expect Blount to have a big year on the ground, but just know that if you are in PPR league, you need to downgrade him two or three rounds (dude caught five passes for 14 yards last season). I don’t see myself taking Mike Williams at 38 (which is where he is currently being taken) over the likes of Dez Bryant, but his production in his rookie season justifies being taken that high. Kellen Winslow is in the Mercedes Lewis class of tight ends that should be looked at late if you miss out on an elite player.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 5-11No Credentials Prediction = 8-8
2. Atlanta Falcons
2010 Record = 13-3 (1st in Division, Lost in Divisional Round vs. Packers)
Key Additions = DE Ray EdwardsKey Losses = G Harvey Dahl
Schedule = @ Bears, Eagles, @ Buccaneers, @ Seahawks, Packers, Panthers, @ Lions, BYE, @ Colts, Saints, Titans, Vikings, @ Texans, @ Panthers, Jaguars, @ Saints, Buccaneers
Real-Life Outlook = In spite of the shellacking they received at home in the playoffs last season, Atlanta must still feel pretty good about themselves. There’s no other reason a team would trade five draft picks to acquire a second wide receiver. At least they added Ray Edwards to bolster the pass rush, which was the main reason Aaron Rodgers was so dominant against them. They better win big during one of the next two seasons, otherwise their daring trade will look very foolish.
Fantasy Outlook = Matt Ryan is in the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks (joined by Schaub, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman). He won’t put up gaudy statistics (unless something goes terribly wrong with Atlanta’s season), but he’ll be a solid contributor each week. Michael Turner is currently going towards the back half of the first round. Know your league’s scoring format before drafting him. If you’re in a non-PPR league, the end of the first round is appropriate, but if you are in a PPR, I wouldn’t grab him until sometime in the 3rd. Roddy White will be the third receiver off the board on the soon to be released No Credentials Mock Draft. Julio Jones will not hurt White at all. In fact, having a warm body on the opposite side of the field (as opposed to Michael Jenkins, who played like he didn’t have a pulse during his Falcons career) will only help him as there’s someone else to pay attention to. Jones should be targeted as early as the 8th round as either a fringe #3 receiver or a bye-week sub. Tony Gonzalez’s best years are behind him, but he’s still a solid option at tight end in a PPR league (just don’t expect many touchdowns). Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
1. New Orleans Saints
2010 Record = 11-5 (2nd in Division, NFC Wildcard Team, Lost in Wildcard Round @ Seahawks)
Key Additions = DT Aubrayo Franklin, RB Darren Sproles, C Olin KreutzKey Losses = C Jonathan Goodwin, RB Reggie Bush
Schedule = @ Packers, Bears, Texans, @ Jaguars, @ Panthers, @ Buccaneers, Colts, @ Rams, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, BYE, Giants, Lions, @ Titans, @ Vikings, Falcons, Panthers
Real-Life Outlook = I don’t want to make too much out of the signing of a defensive tackle, but let me talk for a bit about Aubrayo Franklin. The guy is a house. Part of the reason Patrick Willis has looked so good the past few years in San Francisco is because Franklin was occupying two linemen on every running play. Avid football fans (or readers of this blog) will recall Marshawn Lynch running over the entire Saints defense in their playoff loss at Seattle. Runs like will not happen with Franklin holding down the A-Gap.
As for the rest of this team, swapping out diva Reggie Bush for Darren Sproles was a brilliant move. Sproles will do the exact same things Bush did for New Orleans, with 1% of the headaches. Philadelphia has gotten all of the love for their off-season moves, but I really like what New Orleans has done. Lastly, let’s discuss the schedule. New Orleans has no chance of winning their first game (the road team has never won the opening Thursday night game), but don’t be surprised if they rip off eight straight wins after that before they play Atlanta in Week 10. On paper, New Orleans has a very favorable road schedule. They went 6-2 on the road last season, and I won’t be shocked if they equal that in 2011.
Fantasy Outlook = Drew Brees will be one of the first five quarterbacks taken in your draft. Expect him to be above 30 touchdowns again, but also plan on him significantly reducing his interception total (he chucked 22 balls to the wrong team last season). The convoy of runningbacks and wide receivers on this team make it hard to distinguish any of them as elite fantasy contributors. Marques Colston is normally the safest bet on the Saints offense, but he is coming off microfracture surgery. Monitor his status until draft day before spending a late 4th or early 5th round pick on him. Lance Moore isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a great player to have as a bye-week sub. Robert Meachem has the highest ceiling of any Saint wide-out (Colston included), but needs to demonstrate some consistency before you rely on him as a weekly fantasy starter. Runningback is even harder to prognosticate. New Orleans traded up into the first round to take Mark Ingram, but he has plenty of competition for goal line carries in the form of Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. Ingram has the most upside of any of them, but don’t be surprised if Coach Sean Payton shies away from using the rookie until he demonstrates the capability to pass block. Many people are excited about the prospects of second year tight end Jimmy Graham. With Jeremy Shockey out of town, he does have the opportunity to catch 60 passes.
Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 11-5No Credentials Prediction = 13-3
Click the links below to read about
the AFC North
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC West
No comments:
Post a Comment