2012 NFC South Preview

The NFC South is our first division where it's not out of the realm of possibility that any of the four teams could win.


4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2011 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South

2012 Schedule = CAR, @ NYG, @ DAL, WAS, BYE, KC, NO, @ MIN, @ OAK, SD, @ CAR, ATL, @ DEN, PHI, @ NO, STL, @ ATL

Franchise Players = QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, G Davin Joseph, DT Gerald McCoy

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Vincent Jackson, TE Dallas Clark, G Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright
Potential Impact Rookies = S Mark Barron (Alabama) 1-7, RB Doug Martin (Boise State) 1-31, OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska) 2-26

Outlook = There wasn’t a more aggressive team in free agency than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They added the best wide receiver on the open market, the best guard, and a solid corner. Don’t be surprised if their top-3 draft picks have the largest collective impact of any trio in the league. Unfortunately, the defense still stinks. Assuming Josh Freeman has a bounce back season, expect Tampa to be involved in several shoot-outs this season.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. New Orleans Saints

2011 Record = 13-3, First in NFC South, Lost in NFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = WAS, @ CAR, KC, @ GB, SD, BYE, @ TB, @ DEN, PHI, ATL, @ OAK, SF, @ ATL, @ NYG, TB, @ DAL, CAR

Franchise Players = QB Drew Brees, RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, G Jahri Evans, DE Will Smith

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Ben Grubbs, LB Curtis Lofton
Potential Impact Rookies = None

Outlook = We have no idea how a football team will do when their long-standing Super Bowl winning Head Coach is suspended, but I’m willing to bet that it has an impact (or at least Sean Payton and other coaches should hope it does. If New Orleans still wins 12 ball games this year, teams around the league will question how much they should pay head coach). Furthermore, their free agent acquisitions only covered up the loss of better players (Carl Nicks and Jonathan Vilma are both superior players when compared with Grubbs and Lofton). Throw in a first-place schedule, and this has all the makings of a high-scoring, highly scored upon .500 team.

Ceiling = 12-4 (that’s if a head coach doesn’t matter)

Floor = 4-12 (that’s if a head coach REALLY matters)
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Carolina Panthers

2011 Record = 6-10, Third in NFC South

2012 Schedule = @ TB, NO, NYG, @ ATL, SEA. BYE, DAL, @ CHI, @ WAS, DEN, TB, @ PHI, @ KC, ATL, @ SD, OAK, @ NO

Franchise Players = QB Cam Newton, WR Steve Smith, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, LB Jon Beason, CB Chris Gamble

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College) 1-9, G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) 2-8

Outlook = This year’s “trendy” team to make a leap into playoff contention, Carolina has a lot going for them. Cam Newton put up historic numbers in his rookie season, and should only improve going forward. Jon Beason, who was lost for the year early in 2011, returns fully healthy. Pairing him with rookie Luke Kuechly immediately should upgrade the Panther’s defense to a respectable level (they allowed the third most points in the NFC last season). I’m not going to go crazy, but I can see Carolina topping .500.

Ceiling = 11-5

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Atlanta Falcons

2011 Record = 10-6, Second in NFC South, Lost in NFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ KC, DEN, @ SD, CAR, @ WAS, OAK, BYE, @ PHI, DAL, @ NO, ARI, @ TB, NO, @ CAR, NYG, @ DET, TB

Franchise Players = QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones, TE Tony Gonzalez, G Justin Blalock, DE John Abraham, DE Ray Edwards
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = CB Asante Samuel
Potential Impact Rookies = C Peter Konz (Wisconsin) 2-23

Outlook = How you feel about the Atlanta Falcons ultimately boils down to how you feel about Matt Ryan becoming the focal point of the offense. Quite often last season the offense would fizzle when Atlanta forgot to hand the ball off to Michael Turner, which is concerning because Mike Smith has already stated that the Falcons will be a pass first team. Ryan has all the tools to succeed. If Julio Jones continues to develop, it could be argued that him and Roddy White are the best receiving tandem in the NFL. Tony Gonzalez can’t make as many big plays as he used to, but he’s still a reliable third down target. Ryan will also benefit from improvements on the other side of the ball. Asante Samuel is a massive upgrade for them (assuming his head is on straight), and is the best cornerback to wear a Falcons uniform since Ray Buchanan. Tighter coverage means more time for Abraham and Edwards to attack the quarterback. Better defense equals more opportunities for Ryan to make plays. If he thrives, Atlanta could pull out the #1 seed in the NFC (and then lose their first home playoff game, but we can talk about that in January).

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 13-3




Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West

2011 NFC South Preview

4. Carolina Panthers

2010 Record = 2-14 (4^th in Division)

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = QB Matt Moore, CB Richard Marshall

Schedule = @ Cardinals, Packers, Jaguars, @ Bears, Saints, @ Falcons, Redskins, Vikings, BYE, Titans, @ Lions, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Texans, Buccaneers, @ Saints

Real-Life Outlook = It’s hard to put into words how awful Carolina was last season. They were outscored by 212 points last season, which was “tops” in the league by 67 points. The Panthers offense just barely averaged 12 points per game. Steve Smith was so pissed off about the atrocious quarterback play that he went on a religious retreat to figure out the reason why God was punishing him (alright, I made that last one up, but that wasn’t so far fetched was it?). Carolina will be just as awful this year, but at least there will be a shred of hope for the future with Cam Newton under center (unless you think he’s the next JaMarcus Russell instead of the next Ben Roethlisberger).

Fantasy Outlook = It’s rare that a decision by a player to rejoin a team destroys his fantasy value as well as a teammates, but that’s exactly what happened when DeAngelo Williams resigned with Carolina. Instead of both Williams and teammate Jonathan Stewart being candidates to be chosen among the top-10 runningbacks, Williams is now a 3^rd or 4^th rounder while Stewart should fall somewhere between the 6^th and 8^th. You shouldn’t draft either of these guys, but target either of them early in the season through a trade. Let’s say you trade a wide receiver you drafted in the 9^th round who has gotten off to a fast start for either Panther runningback (the owner of both of them will more than likely be very frustrated with them). If you land either of them on the cheap, and then the other one gets hurt, you have yourself a player that will be facing Houston and Tampa Bay during the fantasy playoffs (two teams that weren’t known for tough run defense last season). So to make a long story short, don’t draft either of them (unless it’s the 10^th round or something and you can grab Stewart), but try to trade for both players after the season starts.
            As for Smith, unless he gets shipped out of town before the season starts, you shouldn’t plan on him being anything more than a 3^rd receiver. He’s currently going towards the end of the 6^th round in 12-team leagues, which is probably about two rounds too high given the quarterback situation he’s stuck with.

Ceiling = 4-12

Floor = 1-15 (thankfully for them, they get the Redskins at home)
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2010 Record = 10-6 (3^rd in Division)

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = LB Barrett Ruud, RB Cadillac Williams

Schedule = Lions, @ Vikings, Falcons, Colts, @ 49ers, Saints, Bears, BYE, @ Saints, Texans, @ Packers, @ Titans, Panthers, @ Jaguars, Cowboys, @ Panthers, @ Falcons

Real-Life Outlook =  With one of the best young foundations in football (Scouts Inc. rated Tampa’s players that were 25 or younger better than any other team in the league), the Buccaneers certainly have much to look forward to the next five seasons. Josh Freeman looks like he will go down as the steal of the 2009 draft. LeGarrette Blount wasn’t even drafted last season, but still managed to run for just over 1,000 yards. Mike Williams was taken in the fourth round of last season’s draft, but caught 65 passes and 11 touchdowns. Offensively this team has pieces, but it looks like the defense will be what holds Tampa Bay back. The defensive line will be better with second round pick Da’Quan Bowers stepping in at defensive end, but expect Tampa to give up plenty of yards through the air. Ronde Barber is a shadow of his former self, and with Aqib Talib’s legal issues that will potentially keep him off the field the Buccaneers are going to have a hard time covering anybody. The defense will have to get a super human effort from the front-seven in order to be effective.

Fantasy Outlook = Freeman is currently the last starting fantasy quarterback being taken in Yahoo! drafts. If you don’t get one of the elite seven (Vick, Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Rivers, Romo), I fully endorse skipping the likes of Schaub and Roethlisberger to instead scoop up Freeman in the ninth round. This will be the last season you will be able to get Freeman this late. I expect Blount to have a big year on the ground, but just know that if you are in PPR league, you need to downgrade him two or three rounds (dude caught five passes for 14 yards last season). I don’t see myself taking Mike Williams at 38 (which is where he is currently being taken) over the likes of Dez Bryant, but his production in his rookie season justifies being taken that high. Kellen Winslow is in the Mercedes Lewis class of tight ends that should be looked at late if you miss out on an elite player.    

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Atlanta Falcons

2010 Record = 13-3 (1^st in Division, Lost in Divisional Round vs. Packers)

Key Additions = DE Ray Edwards
Key Losses = G Harvey Dahl

Schedule = @ Bears, Eagles, @ Buccaneers, @ Seahawks, Packers, Panthers, @ Lions, BYE, @ Colts, Saints, Titans, Vikings, @ Texans, @ Panthers, Jaguars, @ Saints, Buccaneers

Real-Life Outlook = In spite of the shellacking they received at home in the playoffs last season, Atlanta must still feel pretty good about themselves. There’s no other reason a team would trade five draft picks to acquire a second wide receiver. At least they added Ray Edwards to bolster the pass rush, which was the main reason Aaron Rodgers was so dominant against them. They better win big during one of the next two seasons, otherwise their daring trade will look very foolish.

Fantasy Outlook = Matt Ryan is in the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks (joined by Schaub, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman). He won’t put up gaudy statistics (unless something goes terribly wrong with Atlanta’s season), but he’ll be a solid contributor each week. Michael Turner is currently going towards the back half of the first round. Know your league’s scoring format before drafting him. If you’re in a non-PPR league, the end of the first round is appropriate, but if you are in a PPR, I wouldn’t grab him until sometime in the 3^rd. Roddy White will be the third receiver off the board on the soon to be released No Credentials Mock Draft. Julio Jones will not hurt White at all. In fact, having a warm body on the opposite side of the field (as opposed to Michael Jenkins, who played like he didn’t have a pulse during his Falcons career) will only help him as there’s someone else to pay attention to. Jones should be targeted as early as the 8^th round as either a fringe #3 receiver or a bye-week sub. Tony Gonzalez’s best years are behind him, but he’s still a solid option at tight end in a PPR league (just don’t expect many touchdowns).  

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5

1. New Orleans Saints

2010 Record = 11-5 (2^nd in Division, NFC Wildcard Team, Lost in Wildcard Round @ Seahawks)

Key Additions = DT Aubrayo Franklin, RB Darren Sproles, C Olin Kreutz
Key Losses = C Jonathan Goodwin, RB Reggie Bush

Schedule = @ Packers, Bears, Texans, @ Jaguars, @ Panthers, @ Buccaneers, Colts, @ Rams, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, BYE, Giants, Lions, @ Titans, @ Vikings, Falcons, Panthers

Real-Life Outlook = I don’t want to make too much out of the signing of a defensive tackle, but let me talk for a bit about Aubrayo Franklin. The guy is a house. Part of the reason Patrick Willis has looked so good the past few years in San Francisco is because Franklin was occupying two linemen on every running play. Avid football fans (or readers of this blog) will recall Marshawn Lynch running over the entire Saints defense in their playoff loss at Seattle. Runs like will not happen with Franklin holding down the A-Gap.

            As for the rest of this team, swapping out diva Reggie Bush for Darren Sproles was a brilliant move. Sproles will do the exact same things Bush did for New Orleans, with 1% of the headaches. Philadelphia has gotten all of the love for their off-season moves, but I really like what New Orleans has done.
            Lastly, let’s discuss the schedule. New Orleans has no chance of winning their first game (the road team has never won the opening Thursday night game), but don’t be surprised if they rip off eight straight wins after that before they play Atlanta in Week 10. On paper, New Orleans has a very favorable road schedule. They went 6-2 on the road last season, and I won’t be shocked if they equal that in 2011.
Fantasy Outlook = Drew Brees will be one of the first five quarterbacks taken in your draft. Expect him to be above 30 touchdowns again, but also plan on him significantly reducing his interception total (he chucked 22 balls to the wrong team last season). The convoy of runningbacks and wide receivers on this team make it hard to distinguish any of them as elite fantasy contributors. Marques Colston is normally the safest bet on the Saints offense, but he is coming off microfracture surgery. Monitor his status until draft day before spending a late 4^th or early 5^th round pick on him. Lance Moore isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a great player to have as a bye-week sub. Robert Meachem has the highest ceiling of any Saint wide-out (Colston included), but needs to demonstrate some consistency before you rely on him as a weekly fantasy starter. Runningback is even harder to prognosticate. New Orleans traded up into the first round to take Mark Ingram, but he has plenty of competition for goal line carries in the form of Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. Ingram has the most upside of any of them, but don’t be surprised if Coach Sean Payton shies away from using the rookie until he demonstrates the capability to pass block. Many people are excited about the prospects of second year tight end Jimmy Graham. With Jeremy Shockey out of town, he does have the opportunity to catch 60 passes.   

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 11-5
No Credentials Prediction = 13-3

Click the links below to read about
the AFC North
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC West