2012 AFC West Preview

            It’s time to head to the AFC West, aka “the division that traded the rights to Tebow and God for Peyton Manning”.

4. Oakland Raiders

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC West

2012 Schedule = SD, @ MIA, PIT, @ DEN, BYE, @ ATL, JAC, @ KC, TB, @ BAL, NO, @ CIN, CLE, DEN, KC, @ CAR, @ SD

Franchise Players = QB Carson Palmer, RB Darren McFadden, DT Richard Seymour, S Michael Huff, P Shane Lechler (seriously)

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = None

Outlook = Carson Palmer wasn’t all that bad for a guy who was sitting on his couch the first six weeks of the season. If he has a healthy Darren McFadden at his disposal for at least 14 games (a big if, because McFadden has never played more than 13 in a single season), the Raiders could have a frisky offense. Unfortunately, the loss of their first round pick (read about it hear) coupled with the large amount of draft picks they had already given away in past trades means this is a team that lacks serious depth. It will take a return to 2006 form and a full year of health from McFadden (read about what a healthy McFadden could mean to the fantasy community here) to drag this bunch into Wildcard contention.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Record = 7-9, Last in AFC West

2012 Schedule = ATL, @ BUF, @ NO, SD, BAL, @ TB, BYE, OAK, @ SD, @ PIT, CIN, DEN, CAR, @ CLE, @ OAK, IND, @ DEN

Franchise Players = RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, T Brandon Albert, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Brandon Flowers, S Eric Berry

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Peyton Hillis, T Eric Winston
Potential Impact Rookies = Dontari Poe (Memphis) 1-11, G Jeff Allen (Illinois) 2-12

Outlook = Kansas City is loaded with solid young talent, but they’d be much more attractive if the Peyton they added this off-season was Manning instead of Hillis. Matt Cassel is the NFL equivalent of a restrictor plate on a stock car. Expect the Chiefs to be in numerous low scoring games this season that hopefully no one other than Kansas City fans will have to watch. I’ll bet on Cassel hijacking a couple of potential victories for them.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. San Diego Chargers

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC West

2012 Schedule = @ OAK, TEN, ATL, @ KC, @ NO, DEN, BYE, @ CLE, KC, @ TB, @ DEN, BAL, CIN, @ PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK

Franchise Players = QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Matthews, TE Antonio Gates, C Nick Hardwick, OLB Shaun Phillips

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Robert Meachem, WR Eddie Royal, DT Aubrayo Franklin, S Atari Bigby
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) 1-18, DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) 2-17

Outlook = It’s truly incredible that A.J. Smith and Norv Turner are still employed in the Chargers organization. After squandering top-end talent for most of the past decade (including the prime years of LaDainian Tomlinson, the best runningback of the ‘00s), they finally bottomed out with a pitiful 8-8 record, squandering a chance to win the most winnable division in football. While most folks are ready to point the finger at Turner, Smith deserves most of the blame for letting a once formidable defense erode into a mid-tier unit. To San Diego’s credit, they were aggressive in the off-season, adding three solid defensive linemen through the draft and free agency. They are a defensive playmaker away (something they haven’t had since Shaun Merriman’s best seasons) from returning to their previous form.

            As for the other side of the ball, a return to their 2010 form hinges on the health of Antonio Gates and the emergence of a wide receiver. Blessed with good health for the most of his career, Gates has had foot problems each of the past two seasons. If healthy, he’s capable of putting up similar production to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. With the loss of Vincent Jackson (who other than a monster game against the Patriots last year, was way overrated), someone will need to step up to be Philip River’s main outside target. Meachem is the most likely to emerge (he was lost in the uber-deep receiving core the Saints have), but Eddie Royal and Malcolm Floyd have been valuable assets before as well.
            With all that said, the pieces are in place for the Chargers to bounce back in 2012. There isn’t a game on their schedule that you point to and say they have no chance of winning (maybe their road date at Pittsburgh, depending on high you are on the Steelers). It all boils down to whether or not Norv Turner screws it up.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7 (I’m done banking on Norv)

1. Denver Broncos

2011 Record = 8-8, First in AFC West, Lost in AFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = PIT, @ ATL, HOU, OAK, @ NE, @ SD, BYE, NO, @ CIN, @ CAR, SD, @ KC, TB, @ OAK, @ BAL, CLE, KC

Franchise Players = RB Willis McGahee, WR DeMaryius Thomas (will find this out once Manning is playing) T Ryan Clady, DE Elvis Dumervil, LB Von Miller, CB Champ Bailey

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, CB Tracy Porter
Potential Impact Rookies = DT Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) 2-4, QB Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 2-25

Outlook = I don’t think anyone can honestly predict what Denver will get out of Peyton Manning this season, but let’s say the worst happens and Manning barely plays. This was a club that made it to the playoffs with a quarterback who couldn’t read defenses, work through a progression of receivers, or for that matter, throw an out or a slant. I think if Brock Osweiler is forced to play, Denver can tighten up the playbook like they did with Tebow and muddle their way to another .500 season. No Credentials will step out on a limb and say Manning will be healthy, and effective. We’ll realize that DeMaryius Thomas is actually an elite receiver, and Eric Decker isn’t bad either (click here to see what these two could do for the fantasy community with a healthy Manning). A bruising running game will be enhanced by the threat of the pass, which is something Denver never had the luxury of last season with Tebow under center. Denver even has a defense built to rush the passer, so if Manning can deliver some early leads, Von Miller and company will be able to pin their ears back and attack the quarterback. If everything clicks (which is a big if), we could be talking about the scariest team in the AFC. 

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 5-11 (can’t discount that God could hold a grudge over dumping Tebow)

No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West