2012 AFC East Preview

            Welcome to the AFC East, where even playing the AFC South and NFC West isn’t enough to save the Dolphins and Jets.
 

4. Miami Dolphins

 

2011 Record = 6-10, Third in AFC East

2012 Schedule = @ HOU, OAK, NYJ, @ ARI, @ CIN, STL, BYE, @ NYJ, @ IND, TEN, @ BUF, SEA, NE, @ SF, JAC, BUF, @ NE

Franchise Players = RB Reggie Bush, T Jake Long, C Mike Pouncey, LB Cameron Wake

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB E.J. Henderson, CB Richard Marshall, G Eric Steinbach
Potential Impact Rookies = QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) 1-8, T Jonathan Martin (Stanford) 2-10, Lamar Miller (Miami) 4-2

Outlook = Miami just traded their best corner to the Colts. Not quite as dramatic as the Red Sox shipping $253 million worth of salary to Los Angeles for the equivalent of a poop sandwich, but it’s the same idea. Their offensive line is good enough that they’ll steal a couple of wins just by running over people, but this team is going no where fast.

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13

3. New York Jets

 

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East

2012 Schedule = BUF, @ PIT, @ MIA, SF, HOU, IND, @ NE, MIA, BYE, @ SEA, @ STL, NE, ARI, @ JAC, @ TEN, SD, @ BUF

Franchise Players = TE Dustin Keller, T D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, LB Bart Scott, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Antonio Cromartie

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = God, QB Tim Tebow, S LaRon Landry
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina) 1-16, Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 2-11

Outlook = New York has a great defense (on paper anyway), and they are built to primarily run the football. In other words, they’d be great if the year was 1964. Unfortunately, they are not constructed to succeed in the new pass-happy NFL. Mark Sanchez hasn’t developed much since a solid rookie campaign in 2009, so expecting a leap from him is foolish. Throw in the possibility of the home crowd chanting for Tebow after every incompletion, and this makes for a miserable season for Sanchez and the Jets. Expect it to be the last year we see Rex Ryan roaming the Jets’ sideline.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
 

2. Buffalo Bills

 

2011 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East

2012 Schedule = @ NYJ, KC, @ CLE, NE, @ SF, @ ARI, TEN, BYE, @ HOU, @ NE, MIA, @ IND, JAC, STL, SEA, @ MIA, NYJ

Franchise Players = QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Fred Jackson, WR Stevie Johnson, G Andy Levitre, DT Marcell Dareus, DT Kyle Williams, CB Leodis McKelvin

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DE Mario Williams, DE Mark Anderson
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) 1-10, T Cordy Glenn (Georgia) 2-9

Outlook = It’s not very often that the largest free agent contract handed out comes from the Buffalo Bills, but that’s what happened this off-season whey they inked Mario Williams to a $100 million deal. Buffalo has the scariest defensive line in the AFC East, which is a good thing when you have two dates with Tom Brady every year. There’s a little too much Ryan Fitzpatrick involved to make me believe that this is a Super Bowl contender, but this should be the season that the Bills finally return to the playoffs.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
 

1. New England Patriots

 

2011 Record = 13-3, First in AFC East, Lost Super Bowl

2012 Schedule = @ TEN, ARI, @ BAL, @ BUF, DEN, @ SEA, NYJ, @ STL, BYE, BUF, IND, @ NYJ, @ MIA, HOU, SF, @ JAC, MIA

Franchise Players = QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE Aaron Hernandez, G Logan Mankins, DT Vince Wilfork, LB Jerod Mayo, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Devin McCourty, S Patrick Chung, K Stephen Gostkowski

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Joseph Addai, WR Brandon Lloyd, G Robert Gallery, CB Will Allen
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse) 1-21, LB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) 1-25, RB Jeff Demps (Florida) Undrafted

Outlook = To illustrate just how weak the Patriots schedule is this season, I’m going to list the likely quarterbacks they will face in each of their games.

Week 1 = Jake Locker (I like Locker, but it will be his first NFL start)

Week 2 = Kevin Kolb or John Skelton (aka “the crappy quarterback” or “the other crappy quarterback”)
Week 3 = Joe Flacco
Week 4 = Ryan Fitzpatrick
Week 5 = Peyton Manning (five years ago this would be scary, but at 85% arm strength, not so much anymore)
Week 6 = Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn (Wilson might’ve gotten squashed by a defensive tackle by this point)
Week 7 = Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow
Week 8 = Sam Bradford
Week 10 = Fitzpatrick
Week 11 = Andrew Luck (this will be scary in two or three years, but he’s still a rookie)
Week 12 = Tebow (Sanchez might make it to Week 7, but not Week 12)
Week 13 = Ryan Tannehill or Matt Moore
Week 14 = T.J. Yates, or T.J. Hooker, or whoever the Texans backup is (Schaub will be hurt by Week 14)
Week 15 = Alex Smith
Week 16 = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne (it sucks to cheer for the Jaguars)
Week 17 = Tannehill or Moore

            Isn’t 85% Peyton Manning still the best quarterback on this list? It’s ridiculous. As soon as I phone this column in I’m placing a hefty wager on the over for New England’s season win total.

Ceiling = 16-0

Floor = 10-6
No Credentials Prediction = 15-1

Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West