Monday, July 29, 2013

No Credentials Summer Recap

            I wish I had a better excuse as to why No Credentials has been less active over the pass six months, but really it boils down to two things.

1.      I was without Playstation 3 for five months.
      2.      I bought a new one, and play a game of my Madden franchise when before I would be writing blog posts.

To make up for our lack of production, we’ll take a quick peak at stories I briefly thought about tackling before deciding playing another game with my son at quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs was more exciting.

MLB

Ryan Braun Surrenders

            There’s no other word for it, as Braun defiantly took on MLB for almost two years before essentially accepting a plea deal. One wonders if Braun backed down partially because his team is terrible, and he’s been nursing a sore thumb the past two months that hasn’t improved. He’ll come back with no marketability in 2014, but he will be healthy, and quite possibly a top-10 fantasy asset next season.

Mariano Rivera Wins the All-Star Game MVP


            Evidently, a scoreless eighth is more valuable than a scoreless ninth. This game was further proof of why an All-Star Game should have nothing to do with determining home-field advantage for it’s championship series.

The Yankees Stink


            That statement is a little strong in realistic terms (they are over .500, and would gave a one game lead in the NL West), but compared to the usual excellence produced by the Yankees, it’s an accurate one. The offense is abysmal, only generating 125 less runs this season than the Red Sox have. C.C. Sabathia looks to be in desperate need of a switch the National League, and Alex Rodriguez still hangs over the club like a black cloud. While not supporters of the Bronx Bombers, we here at No Credentials are always fans of roster building, so here’s our on the fly, not well thought out fix for the New York Yankees that they can begin implementing before the trade deadline.

  1. Give up on the 2013 season – It would be one thing if they were just seven games behind the Red Sox, but they also trail Tampa Bay and Baltimore (by 6.5 and 4 games). The Rangers and Indians are also ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.
  2. Trade Robinson Cano – By all accounts, it appears Cano is going to ask for eleventy billion dollars this winter. If George Steinbrenner were still alive, he would never make it to free agency, but unfortunately for Yankees’ fans his kids aren’t as willing to open up the checkbook. Rather than let him walk in free agency (and only soak up draft picks), they should try to push for a blockbuster trade now. Where could he go you ask? My money if he hits free agency is the Washington Nationals, but you could never count out the Detroit Tigers from making an aggressive trade.      
  3. Blackmail Mariano Rivera into returning for the 2014 season – Sure it would be awkward after all of the retirement gifts Rivera has been getting all season (my all-time favorite “retiring” person that ended up not retiring was Mark Martin, who swore up and down 2005 would be his last season, only to return in 2006. He’s still racing a part-time schedule today) if he came back next season, but who cares. I think he could throw that ridiculous cutter until he was 65 years old.
  4. Frame A-Rod, Sabathia, and Teixeira for a bank robbery – These guys are earning $75 million (!) combined this season, so coming up with some clever scheme to void their contracts would be advantageous.

NFL


Von Miller Potentially Facing a 4-Game Suspension

            It’s a good thing Miller plays a sport where it’s fans don’t give a shit about statistics, because he will not come back with the same stigma as Ryan Braun.

NBA



The Dwightmare Ends…Howard Chooses Houston

            If I weren’t so addicted to playing my Madden franchise I would’ve dropped a 4,000-word piece about Howard shortly after he joined the Rockets, but you’re going to have to settle for bullet points.

-         Shaq was wrong when he accused Howard of not being able to play in a big city. For one, Dwight was working on a way to weasel his way onto the Clippers to play with his buddy Chris Paul. The last time I checked, the Clippers still play in Los Angeles. Howard leaving the Lakers had more to do with him not wanting to put up with Kobe Bryant than him not being able to handle L.A.

-         Of all the teams that were trying to land Howard, the Rockets were the best fit for him. With Howard in the fold, they are fielding a more athletic version of the Orlando team Dwight carried to the 2009 NBA Finals. Even better for the Rockets, they still have a valuable trade asset in Omer Asik that can be used to improve the roster. You can’t make Houston the clear favorites in the ultra-competitive Western Conference, but they’ll have a reasonable chance at playing for a championship the next two or three years.

-         The Lakers are going to suck balls. It would make tons of sense for them to tank the season like the Celtics are going to do (more on that in the next bullet point), but instead, they’ll field a mediocre team based around a physically limited Kobe Bryant. Pau Gasol should be better utilized, but that won’t be enough for them to be better than .500.

Danny Ainge Blows Up the Celtics


            Is it going to suck watching Paul Pierce (a Celtic since 1997) and Kevin Garnett (the catalyst for the 2008 championship winning team) play for the Nets? Yes. Is it going to suck to watch Doc Rivers coach the Clippers? Yes. The “Ubuntu” Era was responsible for the rebirth of Celtic pride in the northeast, but it was wise to turn the page on this group of players. When you have the chance to land one of five potential franchise players in next year’s draft, the most logical thing to do is to suck as much as humanly possible and improve your lottery chances. The team implosion will be complete if they are able to showcase Rajon Rondo for a 10-game tryout after he returns from injury and then ship him off to a contending (hopefully with Gerald Wallace’s horrendous contract, but that’s probably wishful thinking).

NHL


Bruins Give Up On Seguin

            Because you know, any time you can prematurely give up on a 21-year old phenom, you have to do it. This deal will hurt when Tyler Seguin wins a Hart Trophy in Dallas.

NASCAR


Jimmie Johnson is Better at NASCAR Than Any Other Athlete is at any Other Sport Right Now

            It hasn’t been fair this season. If not for some bad luck with pit stops and restarts, Johnson could very well have eight wins right now. Unless Joe Gibbs Racing finds some durability with their Toyota engines, the Chase for the Cup could be over in eight races.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Pre-Season Fantasy Football TE Ranks

           Last year was hyped as the deepest crop of useful fantasy tight ends in history. This year, not so much. Aaron Hernandez…well, I don’t need to tell you what happened to him (just know he was ranked second on this list before his legal troubles). Rob Gronkowski…I don’t have to talk about him either. Two thirds of the top tight end tier has been reduced to rubble (along with the dominance of the New England Patriots offense, but we will save that conversation for another day). We don’t need to publish a value adjusted ranking at the end here, as my personal values of players will not be impacted by the draft pick I need to spend on them.


Tier 1 – The Last Man Standing


1
J.Graham, Saints

This is a rule that if you have designs on winning your fantasy league, you have to live by…if you have the chance to draft Jimmy Graham in the third round, you do it. No questions asked. His average draft spot is 18.5, which puts him towards the end of the second in ten team leagues. If I still have a shot at a Tier 3 runningback with my third round pick, I’d make the plunge in the second.
            For those wondering why Graham is such a valuable commodity, you must consider two things. One, he’s going to produce like Tier 2 or 3 wide receiver. Secondly, there isn’t a safer bet at tight end to produce at that level than Graham. Getting the scoring output he generates on a week-to-week basis at a week position is a tremendous advantage.


Tier 2 – The Lottery Ticket


2
R.Gronkowski, Patriots

If healthy, there isn’t a safer bet for 15 touchdown receptions in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than Rob Gronkowski. The problem is his bones are made of Swiss cheese. If you nail your first four picks, and one of them isn’t Jimmy Graham, I fully endorse drafting Gronk. Even if he doesn’t make his debut until Week 6, he can still win your fantasy league for you. If he isn’t healthy for the fantasy playoffs, there’s always next year.


Tier 3 – Old Reliables


3
J.Witten, Cowboys
4
T.Gonzalez, Falcons

These are you safe sixth round picks if you miss out on the Rob Gronkowski sweepstakes. Witten might be worth a fifth round pick if you’re playing in a PPR league.


Tier 4 – Solid Contributors


5
V.Davis, 49ers
6
D.Pitta, Ravens
7
G.Olsen, Panthers
8
A.Gates, Chargers

There’s a decent chance that one of these guys will end up as the second highest scoring tight end in fantasy this season, but good luck picking which one will do it. Davis presents the best opportunity for a monster year, as it looks like he’ll line up at wide receiver while Michael Crabtree is on the shelf.


Tier 5 – Inconsistent Commodities


9
O.Daniels, Texans
10
B.Myers, Giants
11
J.Finley, Packers
12
J.Cook, Rams
13
K.Rudolph, Vikings
14
M.Bennett, Bears

Just as likely to score you 15 points as they are to score 1, this group of tight ends will drive you absolutely bonkers if you own one of them.


Tier 6 – Sleepers and Bye Week Subs


15
J.Gresham, Bengals
16
B.Pettigrew, Lions
17
F.Davis, Redskins
18
R.Housler, Cardinals
19
D.Allen, Colts
20
J.Cameron, Browns
21
D.Keller, Dolphins
22
Z.Miller, Seahawks
23
H.Miller, Steelers
24
D.Walker, Titans
25
B.Celek, Eagles
 
          None of these guys should be drafted unless you are in a twelve-team league, and even then I don’t think I’d take the plunge. All of these guys should be considered as bye week pickups, but a couple warrant keeping tabs on early in the season. Fred Davis is always productive when he’s healthy, but the problem is he’s never healthy. Rob Housler has generated preseason buzz, and of all the Cardinals not named Larry Fitzgerald, should benefit the most from having an adequate NFL quarterback.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Pre-Season Fantasy Football WR Ranks

          With the pass happy state of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, there are now more valuable fantasy wide receivers than there have ever been before. There’s still one player that is vastly superior to the rest of his peers, but there will be value to be had late if you pass on wide receivers in the early rounds.

 

Tier 1 – Megatron


1
C.Johnson, Lions

Much like Adrian Peterson, you shouldn’t need me to explain why Johnson is head and shoulders above rest of the wide receivers. What differentiates him from AP is the deep position he plays. As you’ll see, as you get deeper into this post, there’s a large quantity of wide receivers you should feel comfortable starting in a given week. There will be a difference in production between Calvin Johnson (who on average is coming off draft boards with the seventh pick) and Lance Moore (he’s a twelfth rounder), but it’s not as wide a gap as the difference between Adrian Peterson and Giovanni Bernard (both are ranked 34th at their respective positions by No Credentials). To make a long story short, the cost of not having an elite runningback is not worth adding Johnson to your roster. The only exception to this rule is if he falls to you at nine or ten, as you should be able to snag a Tier 2 runningback (think Alfred Morris or Trent Richardson) in the second. 


Tier 2 – Legit #1 Receivers


2
D.Bryant, Cowboys
3
B.Marshall, Bears
4
A.Green, Bengals
5
L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals
6
J.Jones, Falcons
7
A.Johnson, Texans
8
R.White, Falcons
9
D.Thomas, Broncos

I have a simple rule with this group…if it’s the third round, and Jimmy Graham is already off the board, I’m drafting one of these guys. That means Bryant, Marshall, Green, and Julio Jones are all too expensive for me.


Tier 3 – Low End #1s or High End #2s


10
V.Cruz, Giants
11
R.Wayne, Colts
12
V.Jackson, Buccaneers

Here are you fringe #1 receivers that have an extra question mark than their Tier 2 counterparts. Victor Cruz regressed after his ridiculous 2011 campaign to post stats that should be the norm for him. Reggie Wayne isn’t getting any younger, and Vincent Jackson has the most erratic starting quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE not named Blaine Gabbert.
           With all that said, these are the guys that I’m targeting to be a #1 or #2 receiver on my team. Cruz is the most expensive, but if I’m picking towards the end of the third round I’ll be happy to take him. You have the chance to snag Wayne or Jackson in the fourth or fifth round if you’re in a ten-team league, which is a tremendous value. If Josh Freeman gets his completion percentage closer to 60%, Jackson will put up Tier 2 numbers.


Tier 4 – League Deciders

13
H.Nicks, Giants
14
P.Harvin, Seahawks
15
M.Colston, Saints
16
A.Brown, Steelers
17
R.Cobb, Packers
18
D.Bowe, Chiefs
19
W.Welker, Broncos
20
J.Nelson, Packers
21
S.Smith, Panthers
22
T.Smith, Ravens

Other than the Tier 3 runningback group, this is the group that will swing the most fantasy league titles. Odds are good that one of these guys will be your #2 receiver (unless your of the opinion that Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb can deliver top 10 value, which I’m not). Harvin has the greatest per game upside, but how many games he will suit up for the Seahawks is difficult to project. I’m more bullish on Antonio Brown than most, but he’s the most accomplished receiver Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal.


Tier 5 – High Ceilings, Low Floors


23
E.Decker, Broncos
24
K.Britt, Titans
25
M.Wallace, Dolphins
26
D.Amendola, Patriots

Three out of four of these players belong together based on average draft position, but Kenny Britt is the one I’m either way to high on (no pun intended to those of you aware of Kenny Britt’s legal troubles) or a guy I’m ahead of the curve on. All four of these players have potential to produce top-15 value, but they are not without risk. Decker, Wallace, and Amendola are all going around the 50th pick, while you can get Britt sometime around the 11th round (I guess he’s ending up a bunch of my teams).


Tier 6 – Low Risk, High Upside


27
J.Maclin, Eagles
28
S.Johnson, Bills
29
M.Austin, Cowboys
30
P.Garcon, Redskins
31
D.Alexander, Chargers
32
J.Jones, Packers
33
J.Gordon, Browns

I like all of these guys as candidates to be the third wide receiver I take on my teams. Betty White has better knees than Danario Alexander, but if he can somehow stay on the field for a full season, he’ll produce top-15 value. 


Tier 7 – Your Bye Week Subs


34
L.Moore, Saints
35
A.Boldin, 49ers
36
M.Williams, Buccaneers
37
G.Jennings, Vikings
38
D.Moore, Raiders
39
E.Sanders, Steelers
40
T.Austin, Rams
41
D.Jackson, Eagles
42
T.Hilton, Colts
43
A.Jeffrey, Bears
44
C.Shorts, Jaguars
45
S.Rice, Seahawks

These are my ideal bye-week substitutes, with Tavon Austin and Alshon Jeffrey having the potential to elevate to must start status. Cecil Shorts demonstrated that he’s capable of producing top-10 value in spurts, but I’m not investing in any wide receiver dependant on the performance of Blaine Gabbert.


Tier 8 – Guys You Hopefully Don’t Plan on Starting Every Week


46
M.Floyd, Chargers
47
J.Blackmon, Jaguars
48
K.Wright, Titans
49
B.Hartline, Dolphins
50
C.Givens, Rams

           If you don’t land anyone from the previous group as your top bye week sub, this is what you’re stuck with. Justin Blackmon is a draft-an-stash candidate, as he will be missing the first four games of the season. Chris Givens showed big play ability last season, and is the type of player that can drop a random 25-point game any given week.

No Credentials Top-36, Cost Adjusted


            Based on the average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s which players I want the most on my fantasy teams. We upped the number to 36 for WRs because if you are in a league that offers a flex position, odds are it’s a wide receiver that will fill it.

V.Jackson, Buccaneers (35.1)
A.Johnson, Texans (30.8)
R.Wayne, Colts (42.2)
V.Cruz, Giants (28.7)
R.White, Falcons (27.5)
L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals (23.2)
D.Thomas, Broncos (22.3)
A.Brown, Steelers (58.9)
D.Bowe, Chiefs (42.7)
T.Smith, Ravens (50.2)
K.Britt, Titans (112.8)
J.Maclin, Eagles (99.9)
D.Alexander, Chargers (80.5)
H.Nicks, Giants (46.7)
M.Colston, Saints (38.5)
D.Amendola, Patriots (49.2)
S.Johnson, Bills (93.5)
M.Austin, Cowboys (95.4)
W.Welker, Broncos (43.4)
J.Gordon, Browns (111.9)
J.Jones, Falcons (17.7)
P.Harvin, Seahawks (30.3)
R.Cobb, Packers (30.6)
B.Marshall, Bears (16.1)
C.Johnson, Lions (7.0)
S.Smith, Panthers (60.8)
J.Jones, Packers (68.5)
P.Garcon, Redskins (65.9)
M.Williams, Buccaneers (105.9)
M.Wallace, Dolphins (53.5)
D.Bryant, Cowboys (14.8)
L.Moore, Saints (107.6)
E.Decker, Broncos (53.6)
J.Nelson, Packers (37.9)
A.Boldin, 49ers (102.3)
A.Green, Bengals (12.9)