Tier 1 – Megatron
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1
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C.Johnson, Lions
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Much like Adrian Peterson, you
shouldn’t need me to explain why Johnson is head and shoulders above rest of
the wide receivers. What differentiates him from AP is the deep position he
plays. As you’ll see, as you get deeper into this post, there’s a large
quantity of wide receivers you should feel comfortable starting in a given
week. There will be a difference in production between Calvin Johnson (who on
average is coming off draft boards with the seventh pick) and Lance Moore (he’s
a twelfth rounder), but it’s not as wide a gap as the difference between Adrian
Peterson and Giovanni Bernard (both are ranked 34th at their
respective positions by No Credentials). To make a long story short, the cost
of not having an elite runningback is not worth adding Johnson to your roster.
The only exception to this rule is if he falls to you at nine or ten, as you
should be able to snag a Tier 2 runningback (think Alfred Morris or Trent
Richardson) in the second.
Tier 2 – Legit #1 Receivers
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2
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D.Bryant, Cowboys
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3
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B.Marshall, Bears
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4
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A.Green, Bengals
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5
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L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals
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6
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J.Jones, Falcons
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7
|
A.Johnson, Texans
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8
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R.White, Falcons
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9
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D.Thomas, Broncos
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I have a simple rule with this
group…if it’s the third round, and Jimmy Graham is already off the board, I’m
drafting one of these guys. That means Bryant, Marshall, Green, and Julio Jones
are all too expensive for me.
Tier 3 – Low End #1s or High End #2s
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10
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V.Cruz, Giants
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11
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R.Wayne, Colts
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12
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V.Jackson, Buccaneers
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Here are you fringe #1 receivers
that have an extra question mark than their Tier 2 counterparts. Victor Cruz
regressed after his ridiculous 2011 campaign to post stats that should be the
norm for him. Reggie Wayne isn’t getting any younger, and Vincent Jackson has
the most erratic starting quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE not named
Blaine Gabbert.
With all that said, these are the
guys that I’m targeting to be a #1 or #2 receiver on my team. Cruz is the most
expensive, but if I’m picking towards the end of the third round I’ll be happy
to take him. You have the chance to snag Wayne or Jackson in the fourth or
fifth round if you’re in a ten-team league, which is a tremendous value. If
Josh Freeman gets his completion percentage closer to 60%, Jackson will put up
Tier 2 numbers.
Tier 4 – League Deciders
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13
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H.Nicks, Giants
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14
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P.Harvin, Seahawks
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15
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M.Colston, Saints
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16
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A.Brown, Steelers
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17
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R.Cobb, Packers
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18
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D.Bowe, Chiefs
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19
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W.Welker, Broncos
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20
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J.Nelson, Packers
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21
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S.Smith, Panthers
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22
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T.Smith, Ravens
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Other than the Tier 3 runningback
group, this is the group that will swing the most fantasy league titles. Odds are
good that one of these guys will be your #2 receiver (unless your of the
opinion that Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb can deliver top 10 value, which I’m
not). Harvin has the greatest per game upside, but how many games he will suit
up for the Seahawks is difficult to project. I’m more bullish on Antonio Brown
than most, but he’s the most accomplished receiver Ben Roethlisberger has at
his disposal.
Tier 5 – High Ceilings, Low Floors
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23
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E.Decker, Broncos
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24
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K.Britt, Titans
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25
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M.Wallace, Dolphins
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26
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D.Amendola, Patriots
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Three out of four of these players
belong together based on average draft position, but Kenny Britt is the one I’m
either way to high on (no pun intended to those of you aware of Kenny Britt’s
legal troubles) or a guy I’m ahead of the curve on. All four of these players
have potential to produce top-15 value, but they are not without risk. Decker,
Wallace, and Amendola are all going around the 50th pick, while you
can get Britt sometime around the 11th round (I guess he’s ending up
a bunch of my teams).
Tier 6 – Low Risk, High Upside
|
27
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J.Maclin, Eagles
|
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28
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S.Johnson, Bills
|
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29
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M.Austin, Cowboys
|
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30
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P.Garcon, Redskins
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31
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D.Alexander, Chargers
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32
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J.Jones, Packers
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33
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J.Gordon, Browns
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I like all of these guys as
candidates to be the third wide receiver I take on my teams. Betty White has
better knees than Danario Alexander, but if he can somehow stay on the field
for a full season, he’ll produce top-15 value.
Tier 7 – Your Bye Week Subs
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34
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L.Moore,
Saints
|
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35
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A.Boldin,
49ers
|
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36
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M.Williams,
Buccaneers
|
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37
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G.Jennings,
Vikings
|
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38
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D.Moore,
Raiders
|
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39
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E.Sanders,
Steelers
|
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40
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T.Austin,
Rams
|
|
41
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D.Jackson,
Eagles
|
|
42
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T.Hilton,
Colts
|
|
43
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A.Jeffrey,
Bears
|
|
44
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C.Shorts,
Jaguars
|
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45
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S.Rice,
Seahawks
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These are my ideal bye-week
substitutes, with Tavon Austin and Alshon Jeffrey having the potential to
elevate to must start status. Cecil Shorts demonstrated that he’s capable of
producing top-10 value in spurts, but I’m not investing in any wide receiver
dependant on the performance of Blaine Gabbert.
Tier 8 – Guys You Hopefully Don’t Plan on Starting Every Week
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46
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M.Floyd, Chargers
|
|
47
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J.Blackmon, Jaguars
|
|
48
|
K.Wright, Titans
|
|
49
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B.Hartline, Dolphins
|
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50
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C.Givens, Rams
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If you don’t land anyone from the previous group as your top bye week sub, this is what you’re stuck with. Justin Blackmon is a draft-an-stash candidate, as he will be missing the first four games of the season. Chris Givens showed big play ability last season, and is the type of player that can drop a random 25-point game any given week.
No Credentials Top-36, Cost Adjusted
Based on
the average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s which players I want the
most on my fantasy teams. We upped the number to 36 for WRs because if you are
in a league that offers a flex position, odds are it’s a wide receiver that
will fill it.
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V.Jackson, Buccaneers (35.1)
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A.Johnson, Texans (30.8)
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R.Wayne, Colts (42.2)
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V.Cruz, Giants (28.7)
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R.White, Falcons (27.5)
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L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals (23.2)
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D.Thomas, Broncos (22.3)
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A.Brown, Steelers (58.9)
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D.Bowe, Chiefs (42.7)
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T.Smith, Ravens (50.2)
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K.Britt, Titans (112.8)
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J.Maclin, Eagles (99.9)
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D.Alexander, Chargers (80.5)
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H.Nicks, Giants (46.7)
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M.Colston, Saints (38.5)
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D.Amendola, Patriots (49.2)
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S.Johnson, Bills (93.5)
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M.Austin, Cowboys (95.4)
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W.Welker, Broncos (43.4)
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J.Gordon, Browns (111.9)
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J.Jones, Falcons (17.7)
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P.Harvin, Seahawks (30.3)
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R.Cobb, Packers (30.6)
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B.Marshall, Bears (16.1)
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C.Johnson, Lions (7.0)
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S.Smith, Panthers (60.8)
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J.Jones, Packers (68.5)
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P.Garcon, Redskins (65.9)
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M.Williams,
Buccaneers (105.9)
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M.Wallace, Dolphins (53.5)
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D.Bryant, Cowboys (14.8)
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L.Moore,
Saints (107.6)
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E.Decker, Broncos (53.6)
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J.Nelson, Packers (37.9)
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A.Boldin,
49ers (102.3)
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A.Green, Bengals (12.9)
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