2014 NFC North Preview

4. Minnesota Vikings

2013 Record = 5-10-1, Last in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Rams, Patriots, @ Saints, Falcons, @ Packers, Lions, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Redskins, BYE, @ Bears, Packers, Panthers, Jets, @ Lions, @ Dolphins, Bears

Blue Chippers = HB Adrian Peterson

High Quality Players = C John Sullivan, RG Brandon Fusco, RT Phil Loadholt
Solid Contributors = FB Jerome Felton, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Greg Jennings, DE Brian Robison, DT Linval Joseph, CB Captain Munnerlyn, FS Harrison Smith
Impact Rookies = OLB Anthony Barr (1-9, UCLA), QB Teddy Bridgewater (1-32, Louisville), DE Scott Crichton (3-72, Oregon State)

Good News = They didn’t rehire Brad Childress.

Bad News = Starting in Week 2, they play a five week stretch where they will face Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Ouch.

Outlook = With the exception of the improbable Brett Favre year in 2009, Minnesota has featured a mediocre revolving door at quarterback for the last decade. Teddy Bridgewater might be the man to change that, but we likely won’t find that out until 2015, as Minnesota appears set on grooming him on the bench this season. Matt Cassell will be the Week 1 starter, and he could have success with the pieces he has at the skill positions. Adrian Peterson is still one of the elite runningbacks in the game, but one has to wonder how many quality years he has left. Greg Jennings saw his production improve when Cassell was playing as opposed to Christian Ponder. Cordarrelle Patterson has a very long name, and also happens to be one of the most over hyped fantasy assets this season. Matt Cassel isn’t the right guy to take advantage of Patterson’s elite speed. Kyle Rudolph was disappointing last year overall, but like Jennings also performed better without Ponder in the lineup. The offensive line could reach elite status if Matt Kalil continues to improve during his sophomore campaign.

            Defensively is where Minnesota will run into the majority of it’s problems. They gave up more points than any other club in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last year, and other than defensive guru Mike Zimmer taking over as Head Coach, there isn’t a reason to expect this unit to be any better. Jared Allen left for Chicago, leaving career backup Everson Griffen to fill his shoes. Chad Greenway is a tackling machine when healthy, but it’s unlikely he lasts a full 16 games. Captain Munnerlyn was their key signing for the secondary, but he’s not good enough to transform the entire defense.

Prediction = Peterson will win a game or two by himself, but shoddy quarterback play and poor defense won’t get Minnesota back to the postseason. 5-11

3. Chicago Bears

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Bills, @ 49ers, @ Jets, Packers, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Dolphins, @ Patriots, BYE, @ Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, Cowboys, Saints, Lions, @ Vikings

Blue Chippers = WR Brandon Marshall

High Quality Players = WR Alshon Jeffery
Solid Contributors = QB Jay Cutler, HB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, LG Matt Slauson, DE LaMarr Houston, OLB Lance Briggs, CB Tim Jennings, CB Charles Tillman
Impact Rookies = CB Kyle Fuller (1-14, Virginia Tech)

Good News = For the first time since the 1940s, Chicago might finish as the most prolific offense in the NFC.

Bad News = Their defense didn’t get any younger.

Outlook = The Bears are set up to have another dynamic offensive season, but their win total hinges largely on the ability of their defense to at least be average. Last year, they were historically bad, surrendering the most points in franchise history. There were issues at every level of the defense, with the defensive line being the weakest link. Chicago was the worst against the run in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and produced the second fewest sacks. Julius Peppers and his bloated salary were released, and Chicago replaced him with Jared Allen and LaMarr Houston. They didn’t do anything dramatic to address the defensive tackle position, which could be an Achilles’ Heal. Lance Briggs was the only linebacker who played with any kind of consistency in 2013, and once again will be asked to anchor the defense. Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are one of the longest tenured cornerback duos in the league, and Kyle Fuller is an excellent heir apparent who will find plenty of playing time in nickel packages. Both safety spots were considered an open competition heading into training camp, and Chicago desperately needs someone to step up in those roles.

            The better the defense plays, the more opportunities an offense that finished second in total scoring will have the ball even more. Jay Cutler has been much maligned, but actually posted his most efficient season to date in 2013. A second year in Marc Trestman’s system should lead to further improvement. Matt Forte set career highs in receptions and total yards last year, and is the perfect tailback for what the Bears want to do on offense. Brandon Marshall has been established as an elite receiver for many years, but it was Alshon Jeffery’s emergence that pushed Chicago to another level offensively. Martellus Bennett wasn’t as spectacular, but also provided solid production not seen by a Chicago tight end since the days of Mike Ditka. The offensive line showed stunning progress from 2012, and with another year of continuity could make the leap to top-5 status by year’s end.

Prediction = We see Chicago as the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC North. There will be many entertaining games, but a weak defense and erratic quarterback play at the wrong time by Jay Cutler will keep the Bears near .500. 9-7

2. Detroit Lions

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Giants, @ Panthers, Packers, @ Jets, Bills, @ Vikings, Saints, Falcons, BYE, Dolphins, @ Cardinals, @ Patriots, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings, @ Bears, @ Packers

Blue Chippers = WR Calvin Johnson, DT Ndamukong Suh

High Quality Players = HB Joique Bell, RG Larry Warford, MLB Stephen Tulloch
Solid Contributors = QB Matthew Stafford, HB Reggie Bush, WR Golden Tate, C Dominic Raiola, DT Nick Fairley, FS Glover Quin
Impact Rookies = TE Eric Ebron (1-10, North Carolina), OLB Kyle Van Noy (2-40, BYU)

Good News = They fired Jim Schwarz.

Bad News = They hired Jim Caldwell.

Outlook = This will be one team that I spend very little time discussing the roster (you can see the names above, they have talent), because everything here has to do with the Head Coach. I don’t really believe in Jim Caldwell (hard to be inspired by a guy who doesn’t blink or show emotion on the sideline), but there’s a chance that anything is an improvement over Jim Schwarz. Detroit has felt like a team playing playground football the past few years with egregious personal foul calls and awful turnovers at the worst times. Caldwell was the Head Coach when the Colts made the Super Bowl in 2009, and also was the play-caller for the Ravens Super Bowl run in 2012. There’s a chance he provides Stafford with enough structure to increase his efficiency, pushing Detroit into dark horse contender status.

Prediction = Dumping the worst coach in football is worth a three win improvement. 10-6

1. Green Bay Packers

2013 Record = 8-7-1, NFC North Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = @ Seahawks, Jets, @ Lions, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Dolphins, Panthers, @ Saints, BYE, Bears, Eagles, @ Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Lions

Blue Chippers = QB Aaron Rodgers, LG Josh Sitton, OLB Clay Matthews

High Quality Players = HB Eddie Lacy, WR Jordy Nelson
Solid Contributors = FB John Kuhn, WR Randall Cobb, RG T.J. Lang, DE Mike Daniels, CB Sam Shields, CB Casey Hayward
Impact Rookies = FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (1-21, Alabama), WR Davante Adams (2-53, Fresno State)

Good News = Ha Ha Clinton-Dix fell into their laps at 21, filling their biggest need on the roster.

Bad News = They were unable to adequately replace Jermichael Finley.

Outlook = It was somewhat of a minor miracle that the Green Bay Packers were able to make the playoffs after Aaron Rodgers missed seven starts due to a broken collarbone. If you prorate the time he played in 2013 over a full 16 games, Rodgers would’ve been on pace for his first 5,000 yard season. Randall Cobb also missed 10 games due to a broken leg, and his return is vital to provide a stable complement for Jordy Nelson. Jarrett Boykin and rookie Davante Adams will have the first chance to fill the shoes of James Jones, who departed for Oakland. Eddie Lacy proved in his first season that he can be a workhorse, and a full season paired with Rodgers could lead to the most rushing touchdowns in the league. The most glaring hole on the Packers offense is the lack of a receiving tight end, as new starter Andrew Quarless is not a dynamic athlete.

            The Packers defense was exposed last year without Aaron Rodgers piling up points on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve already taken a big hit with B.J. Raji suffering a season ending injury during the pre-season. Veteran Julius Peppers was brought in to play a mix of defensive end and outside linebacker, and should ease some pressure off of Clay Matthews. Tramon Williams was a disaster during the first eight games of the year, but while the rest of the defense crumbled during the second half actually performed closer to his level of play during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010.

Prediction = Assuming a full 16 games from Rodgers, Green Bay will once again be the class of the NFC North. 11-5

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2014 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Ranks

            We’ve already taken a look at quarterbacks and runningbacks, and now it’s time to dive into the deepest position in fantasy football.

 



Tier 1 = Megatron

C.Johnson, DET

            The only thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR league, he can go fifth or later.

Tier-2 = Next Best Things

D.Thomas, DEN

A.Green, CIN

D.Bryant, DAL

            These three were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round, which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.

Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones

J.Jones, ATL

A.Brown, PIT

B.Marshall, CHI

A.Jeffrey, CHI

R.Cobb, GB

K.Allen, SD

J.Nelson, GB

            Barring unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns, they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.

Tier-4 = High-End Twos

V.Jackson, TB

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

W.Welker, DEN

M.Crabtree, SF

A.Johnson, HOU

P.Garcon, WAS

V.Cruz, NYG

            Whether it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.

Tier-5 = League Swingers

T.Hilton, IND

P.Harvin, SEA

J.Edelman, NE

T.Smith, BAL

D.Jackson, WAS

M.Floyd, ARI

C.Patterson, MIN

M.Wallace, MIA

K.Wright, TEN

M.Colston, NO

R.White, ATL

            With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.

Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets

E.Sanders, DEN

S.Watkins, BUF

A.Dobson, NE

D.Bowe, KC

E.Decker, NYJ

R.Wayne, IND

T.Williams, DAL

R.Randle, NYG

M.Evans, TB

H.Nicks, IND

J.Maclin, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

R.Cooper, PHI

A.Boldin, SF

B.Hartline, MIA

J.Jones, OAK

D.Amendola, NE

S.Smith, BAL

D.Hopkins, HOU

S.Johnson, SF

G.Tate, DET

C.Shorts, JAC

M.Jones, CIN

T.Austin, STL

            If you’re participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith), sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.  

Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench

J.Hunter, TEN

J.Boykin, GB

M.Wheaton, PIT

K.Stills, NO

M.Austin, CLE

H.Douglas, ATL

M.Williams, BUF

G.Jennings, MIN

K.Benjamin, CAR

J.Matthews, PHI

            We don’t forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis, but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers

N.Washington, TEN

K.Thompkins, NE

J.Cotchery, CAR

N.Buerlson, CLE

R.Woods, BUF

R.Streeter, OAK

M.Brown, BAL

D.Baldwin, SEA

D.Rogers, IND

O.Beckham, NYG

B.Lafell, NE

D.Moore, OAK

            These will likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.

Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds 3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.

Pre-Season Fantasy Football WR Ranks

          With the pass happy state of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, there are now more valuable fantasy wide receivers than there have ever been before. There’s still one player that is vastly superior to the rest of his peers, but there will be value to be had late if you pass on wide receivers in the early rounds.

 

Tier 1 – Megatron

1	C.Johnson, Lions

Much like Adrian Peterson, you shouldn’t need me to explain why Johnson is head and shoulders above rest of the wide receivers. What differentiates him from AP is the deep position he plays. As you’ll see, as you get deeper into this post, there’s a large quantity of wide receivers you should feel comfortable starting in a given week. There will be a difference in production between Calvin Johnson (who on average is coming off draft boards with the seventh pick) and Lance Moore (he’s a twelfth rounder), but it’s not as wide a gap as the difference between Adrian Peterson and Giovanni Bernard (both are ranked 34^th at their respective positions by No Credentials). To make a long story short, the cost of not having an elite runningback is not worth adding Johnson to your roster. The only exception to this rule is if he falls to you at nine or ten, as you should be able to snag a Tier 2 runningback (think Alfred Morris or Trent Richardson) in the second. 

Tier 2 – Legit #1 Receivers

2	D.Bryant, Cowboys
3	B.Marshall, Bears
4	A.Green, Bengals
5	L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals
6	J.Jones, Falcons
7	A.Johnson, Texans
8	R.White, Falcons
9	D.Thomas, Broncos

I have a simple rule with this group…if it’s the third round, and Jimmy Graham is already off the board, I’m drafting one of these guys. That means Bryant, Marshall, Green, and Julio Jones are all too expensive for me.

Tier 3 – Low End #1s or High End #2s

10	V.Cruz, Giants
11	R.Wayne, Colts
12	V.Jackson, Buccaneers

Here are you fringe #1 receivers that have an extra question mark than their Tier 2 counterparts. Victor Cruz regressed after his ridiculous 2011 campaign to post stats that should be the norm for him. Reggie Wayne isn’t getting any younger, and Vincent Jackson has the most erratic starting quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE not named Blaine Gabbert.

           With all that said, these are the guys that I’m targeting to be a #1 or #2 receiver on my team. Cruz is the most expensive, but if I’m picking towards the end of the third round I’ll be happy to take him. You have the chance to snag Wayne or Jackson in the fourth or fifth round if you’re in a ten-team league, which is a tremendous value. If Josh Freeman gets his completion percentage closer to 60%, Jackson will put up Tier 2 numbers.

Tier 4 – League Deciders

13	H.Nicks, Giants
14	P.Harvin, Seahawks
15	M.Colston, Saints
16	A.Brown, Steelers
17	R.Cobb, Packers
18	D.Bowe, Chiefs
19	W.Welker, Broncos
20	J.Nelson, Packers
21	S.Smith, Panthers
22	T.Smith, Ravens

Other than the Tier 3 runningback group, this is the group that will swing the most fantasy league titles. Odds are good that one of these guys will be your #2 receiver (unless your of the opinion that Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb can deliver top 10 value, which I’m not). Harvin has the greatest per game upside, but how many games he will suit up for the Seahawks is difficult to project. I’m more bullish on Antonio Brown than most, but he’s the most accomplished receiver Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal.

Tier 5 – High Ceilings, Low Floors

23	E.Decker, Broncos
24	K.Britt, Titans
25	M.Wallace, Dolphins
26	D.Amendola, Patriots

Three out of four of these players belong together based on average draft position, but Kenny Britt is the one I’m either way to high on (no pun intended to those of you aware of Kenny Britt’s legal troubles) or a guy I’m ahead of the curve on. All four of these players have potential to produce top-15 value, but they are not without risk. Decker, Wallace, and Amendola are all going around the 50^th pick, while you can get Britt sometime around the 11^th round (I guess he’s ending up a bunch of my teams).

Tier 6 – Low Risk, High Upside

27	J.Maclin, Eagles
28	S.Johnson, Bills
29	M.Austin, Cowboys
30	P.Garcon, Redskins
31	D.Alexander, Chargers
32	J.Jones, Packers
33	J.Gordon, Browns

I like all of these guys as candidates to be the third wide receiver I take on my teams. Betty White has better knees than Danario Alexander, but if he can somehow stay on the field for a full season, he’ll produce top-15 value. 

Tier 7 – Your Bye Week Subs

34	L.Moore, Saints
35	A.Boldin, 49ers
36	M.Williams, Buccaneers
37	G.Jennings, Vikings
38	D.Moore, Raiders
39	E.Sanders, Steelers
40	T.Austin, Rams
41	D.Jackson, Eagles
42	T.Hilton, Colts
43	A.Jeffrey, Bears
44	C.Shorts, Jaguars
45	S.Rice, Seahawks

These are my ideal bye-week substitutes, with Tavon Austin and Alshon Jeffrey having the potential to elevate to must start status. Cecil Shorts demonstrated that he’s capable of producing top-10 value in spurts, but I’m not investing in any wide receiver dependant on the performance of Blaine Gabbert.

Tier 8 – Guys You Hopefully Don’t Plan on Starting Every Week

46	M.Floyd, Chargers
47	J.Blackmon, Jaguars
48	K.Wright, Titans
49	B.Hartline, Dolphins
50	C.Givens, Rams

           If you don’t land anyone from the previous group as your top bye week sub, this is what you’re stuck with. Justin Blackmon is a draft-an-stash candidate, as he will be missing the first four games of the season. Chris Givens showed big play ability last season, and is the type of player that can drop a random 25-point game any given week.

No Credentials Top-36, Cost Adjusted

            Based on the average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s which players I want the most on my fantasy teams. We upped the number to 36 for WRs because if you are in a league that offers a flex position, odds are it’s a wide receiver that will fill it.

V.Jackson, Buccaneers (35.1)

A.Johnson, Texans (30.8)

R.Wayne, Colts (42.2)

V.Cruz, Giants (28.7)

R.White, Falcons (27.5)

L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals (23.2)

D.Thomas, Broncos (22.3)

A.Brown, Steelers (58.9)

D.Bowe, Chiefs (42.7)

T.Smith, Ravens (50.2)

K.Britt, Titans (112.8)

J.Maclin, Eagles (99.9)

D.Alexander, Chargers (80.5)

H.Nicks, Giants (46.7)

M.Colston, Saints (38.5)

D.Amendola, Patriots (49.2)

S.Johnson, Bills (93.5)

M.Austin, Cowboys (95.4)

W.Welker, Broncos (43.4)

J.Gordon, Browns (111.9)

J.Jones, Falcons (17.7)

P.Harvin, Seahawks (30.3)

R.Cobb, Packers (30.6)

B.Marshall, Bears (16.1)

C.Johnson, Lions (7.0)

S.Smith, Panthers (60.8)

J.Jones, Packers (68.5)

P.Garcon, Redskins (65.9)

M.Williams, Buccaneers (105.9)

M.Wallace, Dolphins (53.5)

D.Bryant, Cowboys (14.8)

L.Moore, Saints (107.6)

E.Decker, Broncos (53.6)

J.Nelson, Packers (37.9)

A.Boldin, 49ers (102.3)

A.Green, Bengals (12.9)