2014 Fantasy Football Runningback Ranks

            Our second set of fantasy football pre-season ranks takes a look at runningbacks. If you missed our piece on quarterbacks, click here.

 



Tier-1 = Barring Torn ACLs, Sure Things 

L.McCoy, PHI

J.Chaarles, KC

            Both of these players were Tier-2 guys last season, but have established enough consistency to share the top tier going in to 2014. McCoy is our first pick as of right now, as he should see the ball even more with Philly looking to run more without DeSean Jackson. Chaarles does get the nod in PPR leagues, as McCoy will forfeit a few catches to Darren Sproles.

 

Tier-2 = Next Best Things

M.Forte, CHI

E.Lacy, GB

A.Peterson, MIN

            Matt Forte has been so unappreciated for so long that it would only make sense that the one year he is a possible top-5 pick, he would end up blowing his knee out or something. In PPR, you should bump him into the top tier. Eddie Lacy is the best bet to lead the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE in rushing touchdowns, as he gets plenty of goal-line opportunities in a high-octane offense. The sky is the limit for Lacy if he gets to play his entire sophomore campaign with Aaron Rodgers. Peterson wasn’t bad last season, but his ceiling is lower than the first four backs on this list.

 

Tier-3 = Boom or Bust

M.Ball, DEN

L.Bell, PIT

A.Foster, HOU

D.Martin, TB

A.Morris, WAS

M.Lynch, SEA

G.Bernard, CIN

D.Murray, DAL

Z.Stacy, STL

R.Matthews, SD

            This is where things start to get dicey at runningback, as this eclectic group of runners is filled with both boom and bust potential. This group is so important to fantasy leagues this season that we will cover each back individually.

Montae Ball, Broncos – Based on the opportunity alone, you could make a valid case that Ball should be at the top of the second tier, we’d like to see how he responds to a high volume of work before pushing him into the top-5.

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers – Similar set-up as Ball, but the offense he plays on isn’t quite the same caliber. Pittsburgh has been dying to have a feature back since Willie Parker’s hey-day, so Bell should see plenty of work.

Arian Foster, Texans – A consensus top-5 pick last season, Foster’s season was ravaged by injuries. A bounce back season is certainly possible.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers – See Foster, Arian.

Alfred Morris, Redskins – Of the backs in this group, Morris is the safest pick, but he also has the lowest ceiling as he is virtually non-existent in the passing game.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch has the most carries in the league over the past three seasons, and coupled with some wacky rumors that he might retire, we’re not buying stock on Beast Mode right now.

Giovanni Bernard, Bengals – With The Firm finally being put out to pasture, Bernard should finally crack 20 touches per game on a consistent basis. He has the highest ceiling of any runningback in Tier-3.

DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Murray’s been mocked for his lack of durability, but there’s no doubting that when he’s on the field, he’s effective. Despite missing two games last year, Murray still racked up 1,121 yards on the ground and ten total touchdowns, while also averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry. The Cowboys commitment to improving the offensive line has benefited him more than anyone else. There’s a chance for elite production here, just make sure you have plenty of back-ups to cover the high probability that he’ll miss games.

Zac Stacy, Rams – Stacy was a workhorse during the second half of the season, and should be given all the carries he can handle. Our only knock on him was his paltry 3.9 yards per carry, and St. Louis’ inability to punch the ball in on the goal line.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Mathews created so much ill-will after destroying fantasy teams nationwide in 2012 that a solid 2013 campaign went largely unnoticed. For Mathews to make a run at Tier-2 status, he needs to reestablish himself as a key part of the Chargers passing game. He only recorded 26 receptions last year after tallying 50 in 2011.

            The reason this group is so vital to fantasy leagues this year is simple. Even in a 10-team league, five guys from this group will be drafted as #1 runningbacks, with the other half of the group providing the top group of #2s. Barring having some real luck with lottery tickets later in the draft (more on that later), these players are the least reliable starters you will draft on your team in terms of range of possible production. Whoever navigates Tier-3 the best will probably win your fantasy league this year.

Tier-4 = Lottery Tickets

R.Jennings, NYG

F.Gore, SF

C.Johnson, NYJ

S.Vereen, NE

R.Bush, DET

C.Spiller, BUF

P.Thomas, NO

B.Tate, CLE

K.Moreno, MIA

R.Rice, BAL

T.Gerhart, JAC

B.Sankey, TEN

A.Ellington, ARI

J.Bell, DET

S.Jackson, ATL

S.Ridley, NE

            Tier-4 is a smorgasbord of PPR kings (Vereen, Bush, Ellington, Bell), players in new places (Jennings, Johnson, Tate, Moreno, Gerhart), veterans who could be over the hill (Gore, Jackson, Rice), and guys who don’t have clear roles (Spiller, Thomas, Ellington, Ridley). If I find myself in a position where one of these guys has to be my second starting runningback, it will be imperative for me to draft as many other backs from this tier for insurance. Rashad Jennings is the safest bet to find himself in a consistent workhorse role every week, while Andre Ellington provides the highest ceiling.

Tier-5 = The Scrap Heap 

T.Richardson, IND

M.Jones-Drew, OAK

B.Pierce, BAL

F.Jackson, BUF

D.Williams, CAR

            While Richardson was a complete disaster last season, he’s the only back in this group I’d consider drafting to see if a turn around is possible.

Tier-6 = Handcuffs



D.Sproles, PHI

D.Freeman, ATL

M.Ingram, NO

T.West, CLE

D.Woodhead, SD

A.Brown, HOU

C.Ivory, NYJ

C.Hyde, SF

D.McFadden, OAK

L.Miller, MIA

R.Helu Jr., WAS

J.Hill, CIN

J.Stewart, CAR

S.Greene, TEN

            Once your starting line-up is set, these are the guys you need to target to fill out your bench. Someone from this bottom group is going to establish themselves as a valuable fantasy commodity before the year is out.

Conclusion = Runningback was starting to look more stable going into last season, but thanks to some untimely injuries and Trent Richardson forgetting how to play in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, we’re back to hard choices and big gambles. If you plan on using an early pick on Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, or a quarterback, you really have to do your homework and draft as many lottery tickets as possible. The more backs you get, the more likely you are to have someone that actually delivers. In a perfect world, both of my starting runningbacks would come from one of the top-3 tiers, but unless you are picking in the middle of the first round, that’s going to be very hard to do. Since runningback is the most position on the board, we aren’t posting a value adjusted ranking list like we did for quarterback.