Tier 1 = Megatron
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C.Johnson, DET
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The only
thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last
season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year
ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR
league, he can go fifth or later.
Tier-2 = Next Best Things
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D.Thomas, DEN
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A.Green, CIN
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D.Bryant, DAL
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These three
were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their
standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round,
which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.
Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones
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J.Jones,
ATL
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A.Brown,
PIT
|
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B.Marshall,
CHI
|
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A.Jeffrey,
CHI
|
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R.Cobb,
GB
|
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K.Allen,
SD
|
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J.Nelson,
GB
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Barring
unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If
Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns,
they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.
Tier-4 = High-End Twos
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V.Jackson, TB
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L.Fitzgerald, ARI
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W.Welker, DEN
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M.Crabtree, SF
|
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A.Johnson, HOU
|
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P.Garcon, WAS
|
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V.Cruz, NYG
|
Whether
it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is
the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re
thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career
year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his
quarterback.
Tier-5 = League Swingers
|
T.Hilton, IND
|
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P.Harvin, SEA
|
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J.Edelman, NE
|
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T.Smith, BAL
|
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D.Jackson, WAS
|
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M.Floyd, ARI
|
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C.Patterson, MIN
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M.Wallace, MIA
|
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K.Wright, TEN
|
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M.Colston, NO
|
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R.White, ATL
|
With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.
Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets
|
E.Sanders, DEN
|
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S.Watkins, BUF
|
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A.Dobson, NE
|
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D.Bowe, KC
|
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E.Decker, NYJ
|
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R.Wayne, IND
|
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T.Williams, DAL
|
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R.Randle, NYG
|
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M.Evans, TB
|
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H.Nicks, IND
|
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J.Maclin, PHI
|
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B.Cooks, NO
|
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R.Cooper, PHI
|
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A.Boldin, SF
|
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B.Hartline, MIA
|
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J.Jones, OAK
|
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D.Amendola, NE
|
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S.Smith, BAL
|
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D.Hopkins, HOU
|
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S.Johnson, SF
|
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G.Tate, DET
|
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C.Shorts, JAC
|
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M.Jones, CIN
|
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T.Austin, STL
|
If you’re
participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be
drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this
crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players
in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith),
sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson,
Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a
risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should
make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was
squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive
wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the
likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is
our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.
Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench
|
J.Hunter, TEN
|
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J.Boykin, GB
|
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M.Wheaton, PIT
|
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K.Stills, NO
|
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M.Austin, CLE
|
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H.Douglas, ATL
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M.Williams, BUF
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G.Jennings, MIN
|
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K.Benjamin, CAR
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J.Matthews, PHI
|
We don’t
forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis,
but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.
Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers
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N.Washington, TEN
|
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K.Thompkins, NE
|
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J.Cotchery, CAR
|
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N.Buerlson, CLE
|
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R.Woods, BUF
|
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R.Streeter, OAK
|
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M.Brown, BAL
|
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D.Baldwin, SEA
|
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D.Rogers, IND
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O.Beckham, NYG
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B.Lafell, NE
|
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D.Moore, OAK
|
These will
likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free
agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.
Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper
and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide
receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the
runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m
landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration
before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy
Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds
3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.
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