2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks

            We finish our fantasy football preview with a look at quarterbacks.

Tier-1 = Expensive Investments

 

A.Rodgers, GB

A.Luck, IND

            Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are really good at quarterbacking in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. We enjoy watching them play. However, the cost to own them in standard drafts or auction is too rich for our blood. Using a second round pick on them means your passing up the chance for a stud runningback or receiver. The only chance I end up with one of these two on any of my rosters on draft day is if they are available in the third round.

Tier-2 = It’s the Water

 

R.Wilson, SEA

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

            Neither Wilson or Roethlisberger got enough credit last year for how productive they were last year for fantasy owners, but they are finally getting the respect the deserve with their current average draft price ending up in the fourth round (third round in 12 team leagues or larger). I’m not likely to choose either of them, unless I’ve already filled my starting RB slots within my first three picks.

Tier-3 = Priced to Sell

 

C.Newton, CAR

M.Ryan, ATL

T.Romo, DAL

            This is the tier I want my QB to come from on draft day. Cam Newton is one of the few quarterbacks who is “receiver proof”, meaning he could lose virtually any piece of his receiving core and still maintain the same value. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t scare us at all, and if it means he ends up with 800 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the ground, it could boost his fantasy value. Matt Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line, and should be in the running to lead the league in passing yardage. Tony Romo will have more opportunities to throw with DeMarco Murray in Philly, which isn’t a bad thing considering the talent on the Cowboys offensive line.

Tier-4 = Old Farts

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Both of these guys are going before the guys in the previous tier in Yahoo drafts, but that doesn’t mean we have to rate them higher here. Both are entering the twilights of their career, and we’d rather bail out a year early than a year late. Brees might have the fewest pass attempts he’s ever had since joining New Orleans in 2006, and his upside is limited even more with Jimmy Graham out of town. Manning still has tons of weapons at his disposal, but Denver also will shift to a more run heavy approach to ensure Peyton is healthy for the playoffs.

Tier-5 = High-End Platoon Partners

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

P.Rivers, SD

            By our ranks, these three guys will be starting quarterbacks in 12-team leagues. That’s okay for us, but we’d probably use another pick on a back up to avoid unfavorable match-ups.

Tier-6 = Deflator!

T.Brady, NE

            It’s two weeks before opening night, and incredibly we still don’t have any idea what Brady’s final punishment will be (good job by you Goodell!). Even if Brady were to start Week 1, there are reasons to downgrade him in fantasy leagues. We’ll use snazzy bullet points.

-         Ryan Tannehill scored more fantasy points last year than Tom Brady.

-         Seriously, Ryan Tannehill, the guy that couldn’t even complete 25% of his passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air last year.

-         With apologies to Julian Edelman, there still isn’t an elite wide receiver on the Patriots roster.

-         We covered it during our Tight End preview, but it bears repeating…do you like Rob Gronkowski’s chances of staying healthy for a second straight season?

-         LeGarrette Blount is in the fold early this year, which means the Pats could pound the ball on the ground even more this season.

For all those reasons, we’ll probably not have Brady on any of our fantasy rosters this year, unless we’ve filled up our starting QB-RB-WR slots and he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-7 = Low-End (With Upside) Platoon Partners

C.Kaepernick, SF

J.Flacco, BAL

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Stafford, DET

            If you’re a crazy person who plays in a league that starts two QBs every week, these guys are the ones I want as my second quarterbacks. We still have a soft spot for Kaepernick, who is a strong bounce back candidate this year. The 49ers defense won’t be nearly as stout as it has been the past few years, meaning Kaepernick will have more opportunities to deliver. In real life we’re not sure Joe Flacco is a great fit for Marc Trestman’s style of offense, but the volume should translate to fantasy stats (it worked for Jay Cutler and Josh McCown!). Teddy Bridgewater is our favorite quarterback out of this group. The Vikings have weapons all over the place, and Bridgewater’s efficiency could deliver a Russell Wilson-esque stat line.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Dudes

S.Bradford, PHI

N.Foles, STL

R.Griffin III, WAS

C.Palmer, ARI

J.Cutler, CHI

A.Dalton, CIN

            None of these guys should be drafted in standard leagues with 12 teams or less, but this will likely be the best options you have when your starting QB is on a bye. Sam Bradford has the highest ceiling of this tier, but we need to see him get through at least one month of regular season play before we endorse him.

Tier-9 = Young Guns

J.Winson, TB

D.Carr, OAK

B.Bortles, JAC

M.Mariotta, TEN

            Here are our favorite options for those of you playing in keeper or dynasty leagues. We expect all four to have their moments (even Bortles, we like the Jags receiving core), but they will not be start-able on a weekly basis.

Tier-10 = We Only Included Them So We Could Rank 30 QBs

A.Smith, KC

B.Hoyer, HOU

R.Fitzpatrick, NYJ

            If one of these three are starting at any point during your fantasy season, something went terribly wrong.

2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Runningbacks

            While fantasy football moves further and further away from the “RB-RB” draft strategy that was popular for years, running back is still the most important position in the game. RB has the most volatility from year to year, and the owner that navigates that the best will have an edge over his or her league.

Tier-1 = Best Bets

  

J.Charles, KC

E.Lacy, GB

M.Lynch, SEA

A.Peterson, MIN

            This quartet has the best combination of job security and possible production. We like Charles the most due to his presence in the Chiefs passing game despite the fact he was nicked up for most of 2014. You can’t argue with any of these four coming off the board first in your draft.

Tier-2 = Would Be in Tier-1, but He He’s Missing Two Games

 

L.Bell, PIT

            Bell would be the number one player if not for the fact he’s missing two games due to suspension. On average he’s going fifth in Yahoo fantasy drafts, but where he goes will vary wildly league to league. Bell was the top scoring PPR runningback a year ago, so there is no way he should slip out of the top-10. If you draft him, you should plan on waiting on either a quarterback or a tight end so you can draft a serviceable replacement for Bell during the first half of September.

Tier-3 = Awesome Second Round Picks

 

J.Hill, CIN

L.McCoy, BUF

C.Anderson, DEN

Jeremy Hill and C.J. Anderson were on a lot of championship fantasy teams last year. If they can translate their second half production from 2014 to a full 16 games, they will make a case to move into Tier-1 next season. McCoy’s hamstring injury gives us reason to worry, but if he’s healthy for Week 1 he’s going to be the feature back in an offense that might set the record for most rushing attempts.

Tier-4 = Brand Names We Aren’t Buying

D.Murray, PHI

M.Forte, CHI

            The Dallas Cowboys showed last year they had no intention of keeping Murray when they force fed him 392 carries. Add in another 57 receptions, and you have a guy who is a strong candidate to break down this year. Matt Forte’s value has been greatly enhanced over the years by his reception totals, which should decline significantly with Marc Trestman out of town.

Tier-5 = Where The Leagues Will Be Won

L.Murray, OAK

C.Hyde, SF

J.Randle, DAL

J.Stewart, CAR

A.Abdullah, DET

M.Gordon, SD

M.Ingram, NO

            Whether you’re in a standard draft or auction league, the owner that can find value out of this group will have a leg up on everyone else. This tier is so important we’ll quickly look at each back individually.

Latavius Murray, Raiders – Here’s a fearless prediction…Latavius puts up more fantasy points this year than DeMarco. We love him at his current draft price (47.4 in Yahoo leagues).

Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Hyde showed flashes last season, and with Reggie Bush merely poaching receptions, Hyde is line for a huge workload. We also love him at his current price (50.2).

Joseph Randle, Cowboys – It feels like Dallas has been trying to hand the starting gig to Randle all summer, but he just hasn’t secured the job. I’m not as high on him as I was a month ago, but behind the Cowboys’ offensive line he’s still a good bet to deliver top-20 value.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – After playing second fiddle to DeAngelo Williams for seven years, Stewart finally enters a season as the unquestioned lead back. He delivered solid value down the stretch last year after Williams went down for the season, and in the past has been active in the passing game (47 receptions in 2011). Durability is a question, but for where he’s currently going in Yahoo drafts, an eighth round pick isn’t a bad price for a guy who could be in-line for a career year.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions – Abdullah has been rocketing up draft boards with his stellar showing in training camp and the pre-season. We like him more in PPR leagues than standard scoring, as that ensures he should be start-able on a weekly basis.

Melvin Gordon, Chargers – We aren’t in love with Gordon, but barring injury he’s going to get tons of carries.

Mark Ingram, Saints – Ingram is similar to Stewart, as it finally seems like he’s in line for a starter’s workload over the entire season. His average draft price is a little high for our liking (39.2), but the opportunity is there for Ingram to have his best season in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

Tier-6 = Solid, Yet Uninspiring #2s

J.Forsett, BAL

L.Miller, MIA

A.Ellington, ARI

A.Morris, WAS

F.Gore, IND

            It’s a miracle Frank Gore makes it into this tier, but if Ahmad Bradshaw could be a PPR monster while healthy in 2014, why can’t Gore do the same this year? Justin Forsett can be bumped up a tier in PPR leagues, as he’s likely to see a drop in carries couple with a heavy up-tick in receptions with Marc Trestman as the offensive coordinator. Arizona’s improved offensive line gives Andre Ellington some decent buy-low potential.

Tier-7 = PPR Gold

C.Spiller, NO

S.Vereen, NYG

G.Bernard, CIN

            These three will be able to start in PPR leagues every week, which is super valuable if you find yourself playing in a league with 12-teams or more. Spiller and Bernard could deliver standard league value if they are forced into feature back roles.

Tier-8 = Low-End #2s

C.Ivory, NYJ

D.Martin, TB

L.Blount, NE

R.Jennings, NYG

J.Bell, DET

            If you draft Le’Veon Bell, one of these guys should be drafted as your replacement for him the first two weeks of the season. Chris Ivory has looked great during the summer, and has the best chance of this group to deliver consistent weekly value. Rashad Jennings and Joique Bell are starting to look like stay aways as the regular season draws closer.  Doug Martin murdered two of my fantasy rosters last year, but that’ won’t stop me from drafting him late if he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-9 = Committee Hell

T.Coleman, ATL

D.Freeman, ATL

I.Crowell, CLE

D.Johnson, CLE

D.Cobb, TEN

B.Sankey, TEN

T.Yeldon, JAC

            A couple of guys out of this group will be starting for teams in the fantasy playoffs, but your guess is as good as mine on which ones it will be. Devonta Freeman is the one I like the most out of this group, as his receiving skills should give him the edge on the time-share in Atlanta.

Tier-10 = Rehabbing and Hurt

T.Gurley, STL

A.Foster, HOU

            Gurley is a fun prospect, but the likelihood of him being on a pitch count for most of the year limits his value. Arian Foster is missing at least a month or two, and we don’t like his chances of staying healthy when he returns.

Tier-11 = PPR Bronze

R.Bush, SF

D.Woodhead, SD

            The upside is low, but if you’re in a PPR league and in need of a sub for a bye week, you could do worse.

Tier-12 = Handcuffs

R.Matthews, PHI

T.Mason, STL

A.Williams, NYG

D.Johnson, ARI

A.Blue, HOU

C.Sims, TB

R.Helu, OAK

C.Polk, HOU

D.McFadden, DAL

            If we had to bet on one guy from this group rushing for 1,000 yards in 2015, it would be Andre Williams. You should draft one or two of these backs in the later rounds on the chance they find themselves in a starting role before the end of the season.

When We’re Drafting Them

            We’ll list our rules in bullet points.

-         If No Credentials has a top-4 pick, we are drafting a Tier-1 RB.

-         Le’Veon Bell is the biggest wildcard of the RB group. He should be considered anywhere between 5-10. If you take him, you should plan on using three of your first seven picks on running backs.

-         It would be hard for me to snag one of the Tier-3 backs over a Tier-1 WR, unless I already used a first round pick on a wide out.

-         Unless I end up with Rob Gronkowski, two of my first five picks will definitely be running backs.

-         You should devote the most bench spots to the running back position. RB’s value varies wildly throughout the year, and the more lottery tickets you own, the better chance you have of upgrading another spot on your roster via trade.  

2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receiver

            For years, wide receiver was a second-class citizen to runningbacks in the fantasy football world. Most would go RB-RB with their first two picks before even thinking about adding receivers. 2015 is ushering in a new era, as five wide receivers could conceivably be taken in the first round of a 12-team league. Even more incredibly, one of them isn’t named Calvin Johnson.

Tier-1 = The Elite

A.Brown, PIT

D.Bryant, DAL

D.Thomas, DEN

J.Jones, ATL

O.Beckham Jr., NYG

            In terms of per-game production, this group is head and shoulders above the rest of wide receiver field. It’s not necessarily that these guys have the highest ceilings, but their high floors make them the most reliable wide receivers in fantasy. All five are quarterback proof, and can be taken anywhere from the middle of the first round through the early second. We’re not as high on Beckham Jr. as most are due to his sketchy hamstrings (already causing issues in training camp) and the likelihood of statistical regression from his staggering second half performance in 2014.

Tier-2 = Solid #1s

C.Johnson, DET

A.Jeffrey, CHI

A.Green, CIN

J.Nelson, GB

R.Cobb, GB

M.Evans, TB

T.Hilton, IND

            Tier-2 isn’t far off of the first group, but a few question marks make them slightly riskier propositions. Of this group, Mike Evans has the best chance to leap into Tier-1 if Jameis Winston can be relatively functional under center for Tampa Bay. If you can somehow nab two receivers from the top-2 tiers, you’re in business.

Tier-3 = Serious Upside

J.Matthews, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

D.Hopkins, HOU

K.Benjamin, CAR

S.Watkins, BUF

            There is risk here, but also some serious profit potential in Tier-3. DeAndre Hopkins delivered a 1,200 yard season last year, and both Cooks and Watkins were on pace to do it before missing time with injuries. Jordan Matthews will move into a featured role in the Eagles offense with Jeremy Maclin out of town. Of the wide receivers, this tier has the best chance of deciding who wins your league. It’s a shame Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL, as there is no one on Carolina’s roster to fill even half of his expected production. 
  

Tier-4 = Solid #2s, Elite #3s

K.Allen, SD

E.Sanders, DEN

A.Johnson, IND

B.Marshall, NYJ

G.Tate, DET

C.Johnson, MIN

V.Jackson, TB

D.Jackson, WAS

J.Maclin, KC

            There are numbers to be had here, but the ceilings are low enough that this mostly veteran group is less desirable to No Credentials than the previous tier of youngsters. Keenan Allen has stated publicly he is in much better shape this off-season, and presents the best oppurtunity for top-10 production from this group. Charles Johnson has the most raw talent, but will likely be limited by a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Tier-5 = Assorted Range of Outcomes

J.Edelman, NE

A.Cooper, OAK

A.Robinson, JAC

T.Smith, SF

M.Bryant, PIT

P.Garcon, WAS

S.Smith Sr., BAL

M.Colston, NO

P.Harvin, BUF

K.Wright, TEN

M.Wallace, MIN

B.LaFell, NE

            Julian Edelman would be solidly in Tier-4 if not for Tom Brady’s suspension. In PPR leagues, you should still bump him up a group even if Brady’s suspension holds. Ideally you shouldn’t be relying on any of these receivers as a weekly starter, but if forced to do so you should draft two or three from this tier to give yourself a better chance of maximizing weekly match-ups.

Tier-6 = Overpriced Brand Names

R.White, ATL

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

E.Decker, NYJ

A.Boldin, SF

V.Cruz, NYG

            The name of the tier pretty much says it all. We’re not reaching for anyone out of this group, unless it’s in the thirteenth round of a draft or at the cost of $1 in an auction.

Tier-7 = Lottery Tickets

M.Jones, CIN

K.Britt, STL

R.Randle, NYG

S.Johnson, SD

M.Floyd, ARI

J.Landry, MIA

D.Adams, GB

T.Williams, DAL

J.Brown, ARI

J.Hunter, TEN

D.Baldwin, SEA

N.Toon, NO

A.Hurns, JAC

R.Woods, BUF

N.Agholer, PHI

K.Stills, MIA

D.Parker, MIN

B.Perriman, BAL

C.Latimer, DEN

D.Moncrief, IND

C.Matthews, SEA

M.Wheaton, PIT

            Here is the list of guys you should be looking at late in your draft or auction instead of using a tenth round pick on a kicker. Most of the guys listed here are either an injury or solid quarterback play away from having plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs

M.Crabtree, OAK

C.Shorts III, HOU

E.Royal, CHI

D.Bowe, CLE

B.Quick, STL

M.Floyd, SD

M.Sanu, CIN

S.Bailey, STL

G.Jennings, MIA

            I guarantee when one or two of your receivers is on a bye week, one of these guys will be on the waiver wire to fill in if needed.

Tier-9 = Joe Dirt

C.Beasley, DAL

            We love Cole Beasley here at No Credentials, and even if we would never in a million years waste a fantasy pick on him, we had to give him his own tier.

When to Draft Wide Receivers

            Wide Receiver has plenty of depth, so other than quarterback, it will be the hardest position to screw up on your fantasy roster. The current average draft prices give you a high probability of ending up with a Tier-1 or 2 receiver, a Tier-3 receiver, and a Tier-4 receiver as your starting trio. If you’re picking late in the first round in a 12-team league, it’s highly likely you could pair Demaryius Thomas with Julio Jones (I like the sound of that duo in a PPR league). The confidence you have in your starters will determine how many backup receivers you draft. A good rule of thumb is to only spend two bench spots on receivers, and save as many as possible for running backs. Ultimately, it will be hard for you not to have three quality receivers, but when you take them will impact the value you get from the other positions on your roster.