Monday, August 25, 2014

2014 NFC North Preview


4. Minnesota Vikings

2013 Record = 5-10-1, Last in NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Rams, Patriots, @ Saints, Falcons, @ Packers, Lions, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Redskins, BYE, @ Bears, Packers, Panthers, Jets, @ Lions, @ Dolphins, Bears

Blue Chippers = HB Adrian Peterson
High Quality Players = C John Sullivan, RG Brandon Fusco, RT Phil Loadholt
Solid Contributors = FB Jerome Felton, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Greg Jennings, DE Brian Robison, DT Linval Joseph, CB Captain Munnerlyn, FS Harrison Smith
Impact Rookies = OLB Anthony Barr (1-9, UCLA), QB Teddy Bridgewater (1-32, Louisville), DE Scott Crichton (3-72, Oregon State)

Good News = They didn’t rehire Brad Childress.
Bad News = Starting in Week 2, they play a five week stretch where they will face Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Ouch.

Outlook = With the exception of the improbable Brett Favre year in 2009, Minnesota has featured a mediocre revolving door at quarterback for the last decade. Teddy Bridgewater might be the man to change that, but we likely won’t find that out until 2015, as Minnesota appears set on grooming him on the bench this season. Matt Cassell will be the Week 1 starter, and he could have success with the pieces he has at the skill positions. Adrian Peterson is still one of the elite runningbacks in the game, but one has to wonder how many quality years he has left. Greg Jennings saw his production improve when Cassell was playing as opposed to Christian Ponder. Cordarrelle Patterson has a very long name, and also happens to be one of the most over hyped fantasy assets this season. Matt Cassel isn’t the right guy to take advantage of Patterson’s elite speed. Kyle Rudolph was disappointing last year overall, but like Jennings also performed better without Ponder in the lineup. The offensive line could reach elite status if Matt Kalil continues to improve during his sophomore campaign.

            Defensively is where Minnesota will run into the majority of it’s problems. They gave up more points than any other club in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last year, and other than defensive guru Mike Zimmer taking over as Head Coach, there isn’t a reason to expect this unit to be any better. Jared Allen left for Chicago, leaving career backup Everson Griffen to fill his shoes. Chad Greenway is a tackling machine when healthy, but it’s unlikely he lasts a full 16 games. Captain Munnerlyn was their key signing for the secondary, but he’s not good enough to transform the entire defense.

Prediction = Peterson will win a game or two by himself, but shoddy quarterback play and poor defense won’t get Minnesota back to the postseason. 5-11
3. Chicago Bears

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Bills, @ 49ers, @ Jets, Packers, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Dolphins, @ Patriots, BYE, @ Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, Cowboys, Saints, Lions, @ Vikings

Blue Chippers = WR Brandon Marshall
High Quality Players = WR Alshon Jeffery
Solid Contributors = QB Jay Cutler, HB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, LG Matt Slauson, DE LaMarr Houston, OLB Lance Briggs, CB Tim Jennings, CB Charles Tillman
Impact Rookies = CB Kyle Fuller (1-14, Virginia Tech)

Good News = For the first time since the 1940s, Chicago might finish as the most prolific offense in the NFC.
Bad News = Their defense didn’t get any younger.

Outlook = The Bears are set up to have another dynamic offensive season, but their win total hinges largely on the ability of their defense to at least be average. Last year, they were historically bad, surrendering the most points in franchise history. There were issues at every level of the defense, with the defensive line being the weakest link. Chicago was the worst against the run in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and produced the second fewest sacks. Julius Peppers and his bloated salary were released, and Chicago replaced him with Jared Allen and LaMarr Houston. They didn’t do anything dramatic to address the defensive tackle position, which could be an Achilles’ Heal. Lance Briggs was the only linebacker who played with any kind of consistency in 2013, and once again will be asked to anchor the defense. Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are one of the longest tenured cornerback duos in the league, and Kyle Fuller is an excellent heir apparent who will find plenty of playing time in nickel packages. Both safety spots were considered an open competition heading into training camp, and Chicago desperately needs someone to step up in those roles.
            The better the defense plays, the more opportunities an offense that finished second in total scoring will have the ball even more. Jay Cutler has been much maligned, but actually posted his most efficient season to date in 2013. A second year in Marc Trestman’s system should lead to further improvement. Matt Forte set career highs in receptions and total yards last year, and is the perfect tailback for what the Bears want to do on offense. Brandon Marshall has been established as an elite receiver for many years, but it was Alshon Jeffery’s emergence that pushed Chicago to another level offensively. Martellus Bennett wasn’t as spectacular, but also provided solid production not seen by a Chicago tight end since the days of Mike Ditka. The offensive line showed stunning progress from 2012, and with another year of continuity could make the leap to top-5 status by year’s end.

Prediction = We see Chicago as the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC North. There will be many entertaining games, but a weak defense and erratic quarterback play at the wrong time by Jay Cutler will keep the Bears near .500. 9-7

2. Detroit Lions

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Giants, @ Panthers, Packers, @ Jets, Bills, @ Vikings, Saints, Falcons, BYE, Dolphins, @ Cardinals, @ Patriots, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings, @ Bears, @ Packers

Blue Chippers = WR Calvin Johnson, DT Ndamukong Suh
High Quality Players = HB Joique Bell, RG Larry Warford, MLB Stephen Tulloch
Solid Contributors = QB Matthew Stafford, HB Reggie Bush, WR Golden Tate, C Dominic Raiola, DT Nick Fairley, FS Glover Quin
Impact Rookies = TE Eric Ebron (1-10, North Carolina), OLB Kyle Van Noy (2-40, BYU)

Good News = They fired Jim Schwarz.
Bad News = They hired Jim Caldwell.

Outlook = This will be one team that I spend very little time discussing the roster (you can see the names above, they have talent), because everything here has to do with the Head Coach. I don’t really believe in Jim Caldwell (hard to be inspired by a guy who doesn’t blink or show emotion on the sideline), but there’s a chance that anything is an improvement over Jim Schwarz. Detroit has felt like a team playing playground football the past few years with egregious personal foul calls and awful turnovers at the worst times. Caldwell was the Head Coach when the Colts made the Super Bowl in 2009, and also was the play-caller for the Ravens Super Bowl run in 2012. There’s a chance he provides Stafford with enough structure to increase his efficiency, pushing Detroit into dark horse contender status.


Prediction = Dumping the worst coach in football is worth a three win improvement. 10-6
1. Green Bay Packers

2013 Record = 8-7-1, NFC North Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game
2014 Schedule = @ Seahawks, Jets, @ Lions, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Dolphins, Panthers, @ Saints, BYE, Bears, Eagles, @ Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Lions

Blue Chippers = QB Aaron Rodgers, LG Josh Sitton, OLB Clay Matthews
High Quality Players = HB Eddie Lacy, WR Jordy Nelson
Solid Contributors = FB John Kuhn, WR Randall Cobb, RG T.J. Lang, DE Mike Daniels, CB Sam Shields, CB Casey Hayward
Impact Rookies = FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (1-21, Alabama), WR Davante Adams (2-53, Fresno State)

Good News = Ha Ha Clinton-Dix fell into their laps at 21, filling their biggest need on the roster.
Bad News = They were unable to adequately replace Jermichael Finley.

Outlook = It was somewhat of a minor miracle that the Green Bay Packers were able to make the playoffs after Aaron Rodgers missed seven starts due to a broken collarbone. If you prorate the time he played in 2013 over a full 16 games, Rodgers would’ve been on pace for his first 5,000 yard season. Randall Cobb also missed 10 games due to a broken leg, and his return is vital to provide a stable complement for Jordy Nelson. Jarrett Boykin and rookie Davante Adams will have the first chance to fill the shoes of James Jones, who departed for Oakland. Eddie Lacy proved in his first season that he can be a workhorse, and a full season paired with Rodgers could lead to the most rushing touchdowns in the league. The most glaring hole on the Packers offense is the lack of a receiving tight end, as new starter Andrew Quarless is not a dynamic athlete.
            The Packers defense was exposed last year without Aaron Rodgers piling up points on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve already taken a big hit with B.J. Raji suffering a season ending injury during the pre-season. Veteran Julius Peppers was brought in to play a mix of defensive end and outside linebacker, and should ease some pressure off of Clay Matthews. Tramon Williams was a disaster during the first eight games of the year, but while the rest of the defense crumbled during the second half actually performed closer to his level of play during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010.

Prediction = Assuming a full 16 games from Rodgers, Green Bay will once again be the class of the NFC North. 11-5



Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

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