2014 NFC South Preview

4. Carolina Panthers

2013 Record = 12-4, NFC South Champions, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Lions, Steelers, @ Ravens, Bears, @ Bengals, @ Packers, Seahawks, Saints, @ Eagles, Falcons, BYE, @ Vikings, @ Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @ Falcons

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Mike Tolbert, DE Greg Hardy, MLB Luke Kuechly, OLB Thomas Davis
Solid Contributors = QB Cam Newton, WR Jerricho Cotchery, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei, DT Kawann Short
Impact Rookies = DE Kony Ealy (2-60, Missouri)

Good News = Carolina has the strongest front seven in the league.

Bad News = Who is Cam Newton going to throw too again?

Outlook = No team took as many hits too it’s overall talent level than Carolina during the off-season. They lost a solid left tackle, their entire wide receiver core, and didn’t retain any member of their starting secondary. Cam Newton is probably the only quarterback in the league that could be successful with a receiving core this bad, but it’s a tall order. Most of Carolina’s offensive hopes hinge on rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He has the size, but is a raw talent who doesn’t project as a go-to receiver right out of the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen is the most reliable receiver Newton has. If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receptions, he’s a good one. Carolina’s receiver problems are compounded by a weakened offensive line, which will hinder their running game.

            Carolina’s front seven is sensational that needs to play at peak level every week to cover for a weak secondary. Greg Hardy’s status is up in the air after off the field issues, but there’s enough depth for the Panthers to get by without him. Luke Kuechly was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and will need to replicate that for Carolina to have any chance to return to the playoffs. Roman Harper is washed up, and hopefully for the Panthers sake will not have to make too many plays in deep coverage.
Prediction = We love Cam Newton, but there’s too many obstacles here for him to overcome. Only when the Panthers are out of salary cap Hell will they return to playoff contention. 6-10

3. Atlanta Falcons

2013 Record = 4-12, Third in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Saints, @ Bengals, Buccaneers, @ Vikings, @ Giants, Bears, @ Ravens, Lions, BYE, @ Buccaneers, @ Panthers, Browns, Cardinals, @ Packers, Steelers, @ Saints, Panthers

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
Solid Contributors = WR Roddy White, RG Jon Asamoah, DT Paul Soliai, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Desmond Trufant
Impact Rookies = RT Jake Matthews (1-6, Texas A&M), DE Ra’Shede Hageman (2-37, Minnesota)

Good News = Matt Ryan is coming off his most inspiring campaign playing behind a battered offensive line in 2013.

Bad News = The offensive line is still ill equipped to deal with the defenses in the AFC South.

Outlook = After averaging 12 wins a year between 2010 and 2012, Atlanta posted a third of that total in 2013. Injuries to star wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White contributed to their issues, but the real issue was losing the war in the trenches. Atlanta was thirty-first against the run, and Matt Ryan was assaulted by opposing defenses. The Falcons bolstered the right side of the line by drafting Jake Matthews and signing Jon Asamoah, but Sam Baker is probably the worst starting left tackle in the league. He was just carted of the field tonight, and while we don’t root for injuries, long term it wouldn’t be bad for the Falcons to try someone else on Matt Ryan’s blindside. An awful runningback core further hinders Ryan. Stevan Jackson is washed up, and Jacquizz Rodgers only managed 3.5 yards per carry.

            Atlanta didn’t make any major moves to upgrade a defense that was porous against the run, and not much better against the pass. The Falcons have been in desperate need of an elite pass rusher since John Abraham’s best years. Their secondary would look a lot better if the front seven could get to the quarterback, as they were asked to hold up for long periods of times in coverage.
Prediction = Better targets for Ryan will add a few wins, but an unforeseen improvement on the defensive side of the ball will be needed to get Atlanta back into playoff contention. 7-9

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Panthers, Rams, @ Falcons, @ Steelers, @ Saints, Ravens, BYE, Vikings, @ Browns, Falcons, @ Redskins, @ Bears, Bengals, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Packers, Saints

Blue Chippers = DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Lavonte David

High Quality Players = WR Vincent Jackson
Solid Contributors = HB Doug Martin, LT Anthony Collins, RT Demar Dotson, DE Michael Johnson, CB Alterraun Verner
Impact Rookies = WR Mike Evans (1-7, Texas A&M), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-38, Washington

Good News = Lovie Smith is restoring many of the core principles that were put in place when Tony Dungy was in Tampa.

Bad News = Journeyman Josh McCown doesn’t inspire confidence for a surprising playoff run.

Outlook = Offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play were the undoing of the 2013 Buccaneers, and we’re still projecting those areas to be trouble spots this year. Even after Mike Glennon showed some promise behind a shoddy offensive line, Tampa made the curious choice of bringing in Josh McCown. McCown put up massive numbers in relief of an injured Jay Cutler for Chicago, and he does have a similar set of receivers to work with that he had last year with the Bears. We expect him to have a short leash if Tampa Bay starts off slow. Doug Martin was also hampered by the offensive line last season, and then was lost for the year in late October. Mike Evans profiles as a red zone monster, and the perfect compliment to Vincent Jackson.

            Even without Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers should boast one of the top defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Lovie Smith is bringing the famed “Tampa 2” defense back home, and the Bucs have the talent to execute it. Pro Bowler Alterraun Verner was brought in from Tennessee to replace Revis. Safeties Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson under whelmed last year, but have the potential to form an elite safety duo. Gerald McCoy is a monster in the middle of the defensive line who dominates against the run and the pass. Michael Johnson was brought in to ease some pressure off McCoy. Lavonte David at times looks like a Derrick Brooks clone, and should thrive in Smith’s system.
Prediction = They will be competitive, and at times a total pain in the ass to play, but inconsistent offensive line play will mire the Buccaneers in mediocrity. 8-8

1. New Orleans Saints

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in NFC South, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Falcons, @ Browns, Vikings, @ Cowboys, Buccaneers, BYE, @ Lions, Packers, @ Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, Panthers, @ Bears, Falcons, @ Buccaneers

Blue Chippers = QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, FS Jairus Byrd

High Quality Players = HB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, RT Zach Strief, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Keenan Lewis
Solid Contributors = LG Jahri Evans, RG Ben Grubbs, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Junior Galette, CB Champ Bailey, SS Kenny Vaccaro
Impact Rookies = WR Brandin Cooks (1-20, Oregon State), CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2-58, Nebraska)

Good News = Carolina is the only team New Orleans will face in a road game that finished last season above .500.

Bad News = This is the most unproven receiving core Drew Brees has ever had with the Saints.

Outlook = A historic defensive turnaround spearheaded New Orleans’ postseason return, and is still the reason the Saints have the best chance of unseating the Seahawks and 49ers for a Super Bowl berth. A perfect storm of young talent clicking in Rob Ryan’s system and the arrival of Keenan Lewis led to the Saints finishing fourth in total defense. Lewis was the key player, as after solid years with Pittsburgh he suddenly morphed into a shutdown corner. Jairus Byrd was arguably the most important free agent acquisition by any team during the off-season, and he will fit perfectly with second year safety Kenny Vaccaro. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette thrived in Ryan’s attacking defense, and should at least replicate their sack totals from a year ago.

            For the first time in many years, there are actually more questions about the Saints offense. The offensive line was shaky at times during the early part of the season, but came around once Terron Armstead was installed at left tackle. A full off-season prepping for the position should raise his play another level. Chain moving machine Lance Moore is gone, as well as Darren Sproles, who has been the elite receiving back of the past decade. Pierre Thomas actually posted more receptions than Sproles did last year, so they should fill in for him just fine. Rookie Brandin Cooks is also being counted on to fill some of the Sproles void on bubble screens. Along with Cooks, Kenny Stills also needs to make a consistent impact. He only caught 32 passes last year, but averaged an eye popping 20 yards per catch. The uncertainty at receiver is not as worrisome with the presence of Jimmy Graham, who is the elite receiving tight end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Fortunately for New Orleans his contract situation was resolved before training camp.   
Prediction = With an extremely favorable schedule, New Orleans has a great chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. Their home date with the 49ers in Week 10 could end up determining who has home field throughout the playoffs. 12-4

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