2014 AFC South Preview

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Record = 4-12, Third in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Eagles, @ Redskins, Colts, @ Chargers, Steelers, @ Titans, Browns, Dolphins, @ Bengals, Cowboys (London), BYE, @ Colts, Giants, Texans, @ Ravens, Titans, @ Texans

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = None
Solid Contributors = WR Cecil Shorts, DE Red Bryant, DE Chris Clemons, CB Alan Ball, CB Will Blackmon
Impact Rookies = QB Blake Bortles (1-3, UCF), WR Marqise Lee (2-39, USC)

Good News = Jacksonville mercifully put an end to the Blaine Gabbert era.

Bad News = They are the Philadelphia 76ers of the NFL.

Outlook = The bar has been set so low over the past few years that merely being competitive in 75% of their games should be a reasonable goal in 2014. Jacksonville did finish 4-4 to finish 2013, so there is some reason for optimism. Barring injury, Blake Bortles should not see the field until midseason, which leaves the offense in the hands of Chad “Garbage Time Yards” Henne. New weapons were brought in which should make life easier for whoever is under center. Toby Gerhart comes to down for his first crack at being a full-time starter, and it’s possible he leads the league in total carries. Rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson should provide support to Cecil Shorts, and eventually develop into a solid duo for Bortles. The play of the offensive line largely hinges on the development of second year pro Luke Joeckel. Joeckel was abysmal at right tackle before breaking his leg last year, and is now making the transition to the left side.

            Defensively, Coach Gus Bradley is in the infant stages of building a defensive unit similar to what he had in Seattle. Red Bryant and Chris Clemons are former Seahawks who will provide leadership on the defensive line. There weren’t many personal moves to bolster the back seven, but with development from their younger players, it’s reasonable to expect some improvement.  
Prediction = They aren’t going to be that good, but I don’t think Jacksonville is worried about that for another year. 4-12





3. Tennessee Titans

2013 Record = 7-9, Second in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Chiefs, Cowboys, @ Bengals, @ Colts, Browns, Jaguars, @ Redskins, Texans, BYE, @ Ravens, Steelers, @ Eagles, @ Texans, Giants, Jets, @ Jaguars, Colts

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = WR Kendall Wright, LT Michael Roos, DT Jurrell Casey
Solid Contributors = WR Nate Washington, TE Delanie Walker, LG Andy Levitre, DT Sammie Hill, DE/OLB Derrick Morgan, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard “Patriot Killer” Pollard
Impact Rookies = RT Taylor Lewan (1-11, Michigan), HB Bishop Sankey (2-54, Washington)

Good News = Tennessee has some sneaky young talent that is ready to blossom.

Bad News = The Madden version of my son can’t play quarterback for them in real life.

Outlook = Tennessee has assembled an exciting group of skill players, but we’re not sure Jake Locker is the guy to take advantage of it. Kendall Wright was a PPR monster, racking up 94 receptions in 2013. He’s not explosive (only two touchdowns), but he moves the chains. Justin Hunter has the skills to bring big plays to the Titans’ passing game, and is a popular choice to breakout this season. Nate Washington is also still around to provide some veteran leadership. The offensive line showed some improvement after major changes last season, as this year that unit should pay major dividends. A jump in production by sophomore Chance Warmack coupled with rookie Taylor Lewan should stabilize the right side of the line. This will go a long way in helping an offense that will not have the services of Chris Johnson. Rookie Bishop Sankey is first in line for carries. Sankey is a good enough receiver to be a three-down back. All of this adds up to the best supporting cast Jake Locker has had in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. He still has first round talent, but needs to stay on the field.

            Other than Locker, the other issue that will hold Tennessee back is their defense switching to a 3-4. Much like Philadelphia last year, the Titans don’t have the ideal players to make this switch. Derrick Morgan, who is a solid 4-3 end, is virtually useless, and it would be wise management to try to trade him before the season. The loss of CB Alterraun Verner is a huge issue, as there will be a massive drop in talent in the secondary.   
Prediction = We’re not buying into the Titans anymore (we learned our lesson last year) until we can see Jake Locker play at least 12 games. 6-10 

2. Houston Texans

2013 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Redskins, @ Raiders, @ Giants, Bills, @ Cowboys, Colts, @ Steelers, @ Titans, Eagles, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, Titans, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars

Blue Chippers = WR Andre Johnson, DE J.J. Watt

High Quality Players = None
Solid Contributors = HB Arian Foster, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, RG Brandon Brooks, MLB Brian Cushing, CB Johnathan Joseph, SS Chris Clemons
Impact Rookies = DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney (1-1, South Carolina), Xavier Su’a-Filo (2-33, UCLA), Louis Nix III (3-83, Notre Dame)

Good News = They can’t be any worse than they were last year.

Bad News = Houston is still a quarterback away from a full reboot.

Outlook = After putting up 22 wins and two AFC South titles in two years, Houston followed that up by starting 2013 2-0, and then promptly losing their final 14 games. Awful quarterback play led to an offense that consistently turned the ball over, and despite finishing seventh in total yards allowed, Houston’s defense generated the fewest turnovers in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. There’s reason for optimism defensively, as the duo of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney could quickly establish them as a deadly pass rush combination. Third round pick Louis Nix III should also pay immediate dividends as a Vince Wilfork-like run stuffer. Their pass defense was stingy, so with an improved pass rush it’s realistic to think Houston can generate the amount of turnovers they did during their division title years.

            Schaub has been sent packing, but the best Houston could do to replace him was bring in journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine his entire NFL career, so hopefully for Houston’s sake Arian Foster is healthy. The less Fitzpatrick has to throw the ball, the better. 
Prediction = They will definitely not be the worst team in football again, but the lack of a franchise quarterback keeps Houston from returning to the playoffs. 8-8

1. Indianapolis Colts

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC South Champions, Lost AFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Broncos, Eagles, @ Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, @ Texans, Bengals, @ Steelers, @ Giants, BYE, Patriots, Jaguars, Redskins, @ Browns, Texans, @ Cowboys, @ Titans

Blue Chippers = DE/OLB Robert Mathis

High Quality Players = WR Reggie Wayne, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Dwayne Allen
Solid Contributors = QB Andrew Luck, WR Hakeem Nicks, LT Anthony Castonzo, RT Gosder Cherilius, DT Arthur Jones, DT Ricky Jean Francois, CB Vontae Davis
Impact Rookies = None

Good News = Trent Richardson can’t play any worse, right?

Bad News = A first place schedule earns them dates with Denver and New England. 

Outlook = You could make a case that no team did more harm to itself over the past 18 months than the Colts did with wild free agency signings and even more ridiculous trades, but Andrew Luck has been able to overcome it. If the Colts can get the pieces in place around him, this will be the team to beat in the AFC for the next decade. Trent Richardson was comically awful after his mid-season arrival last year, but a year ago at this time he was a first round pick in your fantasy draft. The receiving core should be deeper with the signing of Hakeem Nicks (on a one year prove it deal) and the return of Reggie Wayne (tore his ACL last October). Dwayne Allen had his sophomore campaign wiped out by injury, and is also a welcome addition to the passing game. Barring injury, Luck will have the best core of receivers he’s had in his short pro career.

            The Colts employed a “bend-don’t-break” defense last year, ranking in the bottom third in the league in total yards allowed, but in the top third in points against. You could argue that there isn’t a defense in the league that plays as differently depending on whether they are ahead or behind. The first four games will be tough, as star player Robert Mathis will miss the first four weeks due to a drug related suspension.
Prediction = Not being as lucky as they were last year in close games will be balanced out by playing 14 of their games against teams from the three weakest divisions in football. They aren’t elite yet, but another second round playoff appearance is possible. 11-5

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