4. Seattle Seahawks
2010 Record = 7-9 (1st in Division, Lost in Divisional Round @ Bears)
Key Additions = WR Sidney Rice, TE Zach Miller, G Robert GalleryKey Losses = QB Matt Hasselbeck, LB Lofa Tatupu
Schedule = @ 49ers, @ Steelers, Cardinals, Falcons, @ Giants, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Cowboys, Ravens, @ Rams, Redskins, Eagles, Rams, @ Bears, 49ers, @ Cardinals
Real-Life Outlook = It’s been a strange off-season for Seattle so far. Head Coach Pete Carroll said after last season that resigning Matt Hasselbeck was the team’s top priority, yet he signed with the Titans (word on the street is Hasselbeck really wanted to play for Tennessee, so perhaps Seattle didn’t have a chance to retain him anyway). Then they dole out $41 million to Sidney Rice, but have no one competent to throw him the football (I knocked down Seattle’s ceiling by 2 wins after reading Tavaris Jackson has been named the starting quarterback over Charlie Whitehurst). Sidney should be pulling for the Seahawks to tank this season and get a crack at Stanford QB Andrew Luck in next year’s draft.
Fantasy Outlook = Since Shaun Alexander’s hey-day ended, Seahawks have been very difficult to carry on fantasy rosters. This year is no different Sidney Rice is their only player that should be drafted to fill a starting spot (and that spot should only be your 3rd receiver), but you shouldn’t get to excited about him. Seattle has killed recent free agent additions (examples: Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh). Inconsistent quarterback play will destroy any consistent fantasy value. On a positive note, while the Seahawks defense should also not be drafted, keep them in mind for a couple of spot starts when they host Cincinnati and Washington. Their home-field advantage will be enough to earn you some cheap fantasy points (assuming the fans haven’t turned on the Tavaris/Whitehurst poop sandwich that will be handling the quarterbacking duties).
Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 2-14No Credentials Prediction = 3-13
3. San Francisco 49ers
2010 Record = 6-10 (3rd in Division)
Key Additions = WR Braylon Edwards, K David AkersKey Losses = DT Aubrayo Franklin, LB Manny Lawson, LB Takeo Spikes, CB Nate Clements
Schedule = Seahawks, Cowboys, @ Bengals, @ Eagles, Buccaneers, @ Lions, BYE, Browns, @ Redskins, Giants, Cardinals, @ Ravens, Rams, @ Cardinals, Steelers, @ Seahawks, @ Rams
Real-Life Outlook = If it seems like San Francisco already waved the white flag by resigning Alex Smith, that’s because they pretty much did. Throw in the loss of four starters on defense, and you have a very difficult first year for Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. If the 49ers don’t come out of their first three games with a record of at least 2-1, it’s going to be a long, long, LONG season.
Fantasy Outlook = One of the riskier plays this season is runningback Frank Gore. He’s coming off of a fractured hip he suffered late last season, and is now holding out for a new contract. For any of you who have a draft in the first few weeks of August, I’d suggest passing on him until the middle of the 3rd round if you are in a standard league. Point-per-reception leagues are a different story though, as Gore is capable of chipping in with 50 receptions. He’s currently going around the 20th pick in Yahoo! drafts, which would be the appropriate time to gamble on him in a PPR format.As for the rest of the team, Vernon Davis is the only other elite fantasy starter San Francisco has to offer. He should go not later than the 6th round in a 10-team league. Michael Crabtree is a potential breakout candidate, but probably won’t be ready to go Week 1 due to an ankle injury suffered during a workout in June. Braylon Edwards does have the potential to be this year's Brandon Lloyd of the fantasy game, but I wouldn't bet on it. Defensively, Patrick Willis is enough of a force on his own to make the ‘Niners an interesting plug-and-play possibility. Week 1 will be the best home match-up they have all season, so if you are the last person to draft a defense in your league, scoop up the 49ers.
Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 1-15No Credentials Prediction = 5-11
2. Arizona Cardinals
2010 Record = 5-11 (4th in Division)
Key Additions = QB Kevin Kolb, LB Stewart Bradley, G Daryn ColledgeKey Losses = CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, WR Steve Breaston
Schedule = Panthers, @ Redskins, @ Seahawks, Giants, @ Vikings, BYE, Steelers, @ Ravens, Rams, @ Eagles, @ 49ers, @ Rams, Cowboys, 49ers, Browns, @ Bengals, Seahawks
Real-Life Outlook = One of the more notable boom or bust candidates in the league, Arizona’s fate is tied entirely to the play of their new quarterback. Fortunately for newly acquired Kevin Kolb, the bar was set so low last season by Derek Anderson that he won’t have to play all that well to be considered an upgrade.
Fantasy Outlook = Even if Kolb isn’t able to lift the Cardinals to new heights, he will at least be competent enough that Larry Fitzgerald will be a viable #1 fantasy receiver. His current average draft position is 19.6, which to me seems like a bargain. I wouldn’t have a problem with anyone taking him ahead of Calvin Johnson or Roddy White (especially in PPR leagues). Kolb can also be an interesting option that you should target late. He would be a great backup for Michael Vick, or a good match-up option if you pair him with a guy like Eli Manning. Feel free to gamble on any of the Cardinals runningbacks at any point after round 10, but quickly discard them if they don’t show any value early. Arizona has an opportunistic defense that is capable of putting up big fantasy points against poor quarterbacks. You would be wise to start them against Carolina in Week 1.Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 4-12No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
1. St. Louis Rams
2010 Record = 7-9 (2nd in Division)
Key Additions = S Quintin Mikell, G Harvey Dahl, WR Mike Sims-WalkerKey Losses = None
Schedule = Eagles, @ Giants, Ravens, Redskins, BYE, @ Packers, @ Cowboys, Saints, @ Cardinals, @ Browns, Seahawks, Cardinals, @ 49ers, @ Seahawks, Bengals, @ Steelers, 49ers
Real-Life Outlook = St. Louis hasn’t been talked about much, but the additions they have made should push them to the top of the NFC West. Quintin Mikell fills a gaping hole at safety (I’m going to guess that none of you remember the epic battle to decide the division winner of the NFC West last year, but Seattle roasted the Rams with bomb after bomb down the middle of the field). The sneakiest pick up was former Jaguars wide-out Mike Sims-Walker. He hasn’t demonstrated on a regular basis that he has an abundance of functioning brain cells, but did at times flash potential #1 receiver ability. At the very least, he’ll be an upgrade over Danny Amendola.
The only thing that could destroy St. Louis is a brutal first half schedule. They face the entire NFC East (which other than the powder-puff team in Washington, won’t be fun), Baltimore and New Orleans at home, and a road trip to Lambeau Field. If St. Louis can get through the first eight games with a 4-4 record, I like their chances to finish 6-2 and take the division title. Fantasy Outlook = Stephen Jackson is currently going in the early 3rd round of 12-team leagues, which is an appropriate place to take him. An improved passing game will help him out immensely. Sam Bradford should be considered a bye week sub at best. He’s a year and one stud receiver away from fantasy relevance. Sims-Walker is the sleeper on this club. If he emerges, don’t be surprised to see him put up a line of 75-1150-8 (for those not in the know, that’s receptions-yards-touchdowns).
Ceiling = 10-6
Floor = 7-9No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
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