2010 Record = 8-8, 2nd in Division
Key Additions = LB Paul Posluszny, S Dawan Landry, LB Clint SessionKey Losses = WR Mike Sims-Walker, LB Justin Durant,
Schedule = Titans, @ Jets, @ Panthers, Saints, Bengals, @ Steelers, Ravens, @ Texans, BYE, @ Colts, @ Browns, Texans, Chargers, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, @ Titans, Colts
Real-Life Outlook = Ever since the end of the Mark Brunell era, it seems like Jacksonville has thrown together a crappy roster, yet somehow managed to finish around .500. I like the team’s additions on defense (they were forced to dole out the cash so they could reach the new minimum salary requirement), but two things are really working against them this season.
- Jacksonville is dealing with a legitimate quarterback controversy. David Garrard has been a solid starting quarterback the past four years, but the team drafted Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick. If the Jaguars find themselves below .500 going into their bye, expect people to clamor for the young gun to take over under center.
- Along with the Vikings, the Jaguars are the most logical franchise to move to Los Angeles. Potential relocation has derailed teams for years in all sports (with the exception of the Minnesota Twins, who beat back contraction talk a decade ago, and now play in one of the best new ballparks in all of MLB).
Maybe Jacksonville could overcome one of those issues, but not both. I’ll still give them a relatively high ceiling, but a very low chance of reaching it.
Fantasy Outlook = It didn’t take long for Maurice Jones-Drew to fall from the fantasy elite. After a two-year stretch of being a top-5 pick in all fantasy leagues, MJD can now be had anywhere from picks 10-20. If you do take Maurice, do your best to handcuff the Jaguars backfield by also getting Rashad Jennings. Jennings averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited action last season, and could see more action if Jones-Drew continues to show signs of wearing down. WR Mike Thomas should be looked at as one of your bye-week substitutes, and if you miss out on a big-name tight end, wait until about the 10th round and draft Mercedes Lewis. He probably won’t score 10 touchdowns again, but don’t be shocked if he catches at least 65 passes.
Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 2-14No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
3. Houston Texans
2010 Record = 6-10, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = CB Jonathan Joseph, S Daniel ManningKey Losses = FB Vonta Leach, G Mike Brisiel
Schedule = Colts, @ Dolphins, @ Saints, Steelers, Raiders, @ Ravens, @ Titans, Jaguars, Browns, @ Buccaneers, BYE, @ Jaguars, Falcons, @ Bengals, Panthers, @ Colts, Titans
Real-Life Outlook = After years of being one of the trendy picks to make the playoffs, experts have finally stopped predicting that Houston will have a breakout season. There’s no questioning of the offensive talent they can put on the field, but soft defensive play destroyed Houston in 2010. Keep in mind that this defense was so bad, Donovan McNabb threw for 350 yards against them (more on McNabb in the NFC North Preview). Adding Joseph to anchor one of the cornerback spots will be a boost (Joseph is probably the best corner that this team has ever employed), but you can’t totally trust this group until you see their defensive line perform (they’ve done a nice job of surrounding Mario Williams with a bunch of stiffs over the past five years). If the front seven can take of business, than the sky is the limit for this team. It’s fair to call them this year’s AFC version of the Arizona Cardinals.
Fantasy Outlook = In the soon to be released No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft, two Texans went in the top-6 (if that isn’t a sign of the rapture, I don’t know what is). Arian Foster isn’t totally trustworthy in my opinion (he’s only had one huge year, and was a bust in college), but his production last year will make him the top pick in the majority of fantasy leagues. Andre Johnson has been the top per-game producer at wide receiver for years now, and is as reliable a 1st round pick as you can make this season (especially in PPR leagues). Matt Schaub will more than likely be the 8th quarterback taken in your draft. Expect him to come off the board sometime in the 5th or early 6th round. Owen Daniels will also go in the 6th round area, but you’re better off waiting for a guy like Mercedes Lewis than taking Daniels that high.Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 4-12No Credentials Prediction = 8-8
2. Indianapolis Colts
2010 Record = 10-6, 1st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Jets)
Key Additions = DT Tommie HarrisKey Losses = LB Clint Session
Schedule = @ Texans, Browns, Steelers, @ Buccaneers, Chiefs, @ Bengals, @ Saints, @ Titans, Falcons, Jaguars, BYE, Panthers, @ Patriots, @ Ravens, Titans, Texans, @ Jaguars
Real-Life Outlook = On the good side, Indianapolis has almost all of the pieces back from last years team. On the down side, that was a team that couldn’t stop the run or run the ball themselves. The potential for an improved run defense is there if former Bears first-rounder Tommie Harris has a bounce back year. The Colts added plenty of rookies to the offensive line, but the club still lacks a stud runningback. For this team to be successful, Peyton Manning will have to push 4,800 yards and minimize turnovers at the same time.
Fantasy Outlook = Peyton will be anywhere from the 3rd to 6th QB taken in your draft. His neck injury might scare some people off, but Manning will need to physically lose limbs before he even considers missing a game. He’ll go somewhere near the end of the 2nd round. Reggie Wayne had a great bounce-back year in 2010. If you’re looking to bet on one receiver who will most likely break 100 receptions this season, Wayne is the guy. Dallas Clark appears to be healthy, and will cost you at least a 5th round pick to acquire his services. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie need to thought of as potential 3rd starters or solid bye week options. Garcon has the most upside, and would be the receiver I would prefer to have on my team. Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 7-9No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
1. Tennessee Titans
2010 Record = 6-10, 4th in Division
Key Additions = QB Matt Hasselbeck, LB Barrett RuddKey Losses = DE Jason Babin, LB Stephen Tulloch
Schedule = @ Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos, @ Browns, @ Steelers, BYE, Texans, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Buccaneers, @ Bills, Saints, @ Colts, Jaguars, @ Texans
Real-Life Outlook = I won’t sit here and predict that Matt Hasselbeck will be the league MVP, but I do feel comfortable saying that Hasselbeck is the best quarterback this team has had since Steve McNair (keep in mind that last year they had some guy named Rusty, or Rocky, or Rudolph playing quarterback for a game or two). Tennessee was one of the surprise teams in the AFC last year before the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher debacle submarined their season. With both of those men gone, I’m expecting Tennessee to have a solid season. I haven’t discussed the schedule so far during my first few previews (mostly because there’s so much parody year to year, and teams you think will be bad going into the season end up being good, and vice versa), but Tennessee looks to have the most favorable schedule we’ve covered so far. The Titans play Buffalo while the Colts play New England. Tennessee plays Denver while Jacksonville gets the Chargers. Of their eight road games, they should only be heavy underdogs in three of them. Barring unexpected developments, Tennessee’s schedule could be the difference in the AFC South.
Fantasy Outlook = Chris Johnson will go no later than pick 5 in your draft. He’s one player I want to track closely during the preseason. I have no facts to back up this statement, but I feel like he’s the kind of guy that was probably drinking gallons of Grey Goose and eating Doritos during the lockout. I want to make sure he doesn’t look like Bam Morris (circa 1995) before even considering adding him to my fantasy team. If he’s fine, he should eclipse 1,600 yards with a reliable QB under center. Hasselbeck is nothing more than a bye week fill-in. Kenny Britt is an interesting option, assuming he’s able to stay out of jail long enough to help you. Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 6-10No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
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