We’re at the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season (that also means that we are at the halfway point of real baseball, but sadly for MLB, fantasy baseball is much more interesting to me). Now is a good time to call out some of the good predictions, as well as the crappy ones, made by No Credentials during the pre-season. I’ll find two players from each round of my 25-round mock draft to discuss.
Round 1
GOOD CALL = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – I wrote back in late February that I would sign off on Gonzalez being taken 2nd in any fantasy league. So far, he’s the 4th ranked player in all of fantasy.
BAD CALL = Carl Crawford, LF, Red Sox – A little more research could’ve shown that Crawford would not fair well in extra cool weather (which this year in New England, lasted until late-May). Carl was finally starting to heat up before landing on the DL. Look for a big second half from him.
Round 2
GOOD CALL = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Lost in all the commotion of the Dodgers major financial woes (note to professional sports leagues: Don’t give franchises to people who have assets, but no cold hard cash) is the incredible season Kemp is having. I won’t take to much credit for predicting his success, but I did mention that he had the ability to produce top-5 production. Right now, he’s on pace for a 40-40 season.
BAD CALL = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – A long DL stint is mostly to blame for Zimmerman’s poor first half. He is capable of being a top-5 fantasy 3rd basemen the rest of the way, so see if you can get him at a steep discount from a disgruntled owner in your league.
Round 3
GOOD CALL = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The league leader in strikeouts, Kershaw has officially arrived as a legitimate fantasy ace.
BAD CALL = Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers – A 5.63 ERA isn’t exactly what fantasy owners were looking from a player who was supposed to anchor a pitching staff.
Round 4
GOOD CALL = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – He’s cooled off a bit over the past few weeks, but you still can’t complain about a player with dual position eligibility that is on pace to hit 48 home runs.
BAD CALL = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez has been a complete train wreck so far. It looks more and more like his first half performance in 2010 was a fluke.
Round 5
GOOD CALL = David Price, SP, Rays – Overshadowed by fellow starter James Shields, Price has had a very solid first half. He’s currently ranked 38th among all players.
BAD CALL = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His terrifying strikeout totals kept me from strongly endorsing Weeks in my mock draft, but so far he has posted a solid batting average along with 14 homers and seven steals.
Round 6
GOOD CALL = Jay Bruce, RF, Reds – Jay is currently on pace to smack 36 home runs, which gives him an outside shot to have 100 career home runs by the time he’s 24 years old. In retrospect, he should’ve gone in the 3rd round in my keeper league.
BAD CALL = Mat Latos, SP, Padres – Latos has been a huge disappointment so far for No Credentials. Drafted as the second pitcher in one of my leagues, he’s been destroying my WHIP ever since an early season DL stint. The strikeouts are still there, so he is also a solid buy-low candidate (no one will buy him from me though. I’m in too deep).
Round 7
GOOD CALL = Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies - I predicted 15 homers, 40 steals, and over 100 runs scored for the Flyin’ Hawaiian this year. The steals aren’t quite there, but he’s on pace to hit the other two category goals.
BAD CALL = Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates – The worst pick of my mock so far. I’m embarrassed to say that I endorsed taking him in the 7th round.
Round 8
GOOD CALL = Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers – Deemed the favorite “under the radar fantasy starter of 2011” by No Credentials, Marcum has delivered as the best pitcher for the first place Brewers.
BAD CALL = Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox – I’m fairly certain that at some point I wrote that the Sox should trade Ellsbury (if you dig deep enough into the No Credentials archive you’ll find it). All he’s done in the first half is steal 25 bases and hit 9 home runs. Without him, Carl Crawford’s struggles would have killed the Red Sox.
Round 9
GOOD CALL = Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks – I wrote in early March that if Young kept his batting average over .250 he’d have a shot at a 30-30 season. During the first half, he’s batting .255 with 15 homers and 10 steals.
BAD CALL = Brett Gardner, LF, Yankees – Here’s my preseason write-up on Gardner.
Gardner is essentially the same player as Jacoby Ellsbury (a speed-demon with no power that is prone to prolonged slumps). As mentioned earlier, on average, Ellsbury is going 58th in ESPN drafts. Gardner is going 112th. You’d be a damned fool to draft Ellsbury in the 5th round when you can snag Gardner in the 9th.
In related news, a damned fool wrote that Brett Gardner would provide the same production as Jacoby Ellsbury.
Round 10
GOOD CALL = Michael Bourn, CF, Astros – Bourn is on pace to swipe 70 bags this year. Even though he’s really only a 2-category guy (steals and runs), his dominance on the base paths is enough to have him ranked 24th among all players in fantasy.
BAD CALL = Chone Figgins, 2B-3B, Mariners – Maybe it’s all the rain in Seattle, but for whatever reason, Figgins’ career has fallen over a cliff since he signed with them before the 2010 season. I finally cut him from my redraft league team three weeks ago.
Round 11
GOOD CALL = Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles – His .221 batting average has backed up my preseason plea for all fantasy owners to keep him off of their rosters. If you pick him up off the waiver wire, a cigarette box should pop up on your screen with a warning label that informs you of the dangers of owning Reynolds.
BAD CALL = Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers – I predicted that a full-season in Chavez-Ravine would keep a few of Lilly’s fastball from getting hit over the fence. Sadly, Lilly is actually on pace to give up a career high number of home runs.
Round 12
GOOD CALL = Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays – His strikeout rate isn’t spectacular, but Hellickson has done a good job of pitching to contact in his first full season in the big leagues. A WHIP of 1.16 is very impressive for a rookie pitcher in the AL East.
BAD CALL = Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox – No Credentials put the possibility out there that Thornton would end up as a top-10 closer. The season was roughly 10 days old when Ozzie Guillen stripped him of closing duties.
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