Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Review, Part 1

            We’re at the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season (that also means that we are at the halfway point of real baseball, but sadly for MLB, fantasy baseball is much more interesting to me). Now is a good time to call out some of the good predictions, as well as the crappy ones, made by No Credentials during the pre-season. I’ll find two players from each round of my 25-round mock draft to discuss.

Round 1

GOOD CALL = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – I wrote back in late February that I would sign off on Gonzalez being taken 2^nd in any fantasy league. So far, he’s the 4^th ranked player in all of fantasy.

BAD CALL = Carl Crawford, LF, Red Sox – A little more research could’ve shown that Crawford would not fair well in extra cool weather (which this year in New England, lasted until late-May). Carl was finally starting to heat up before landing on the DL. Look for a big second half from him.

 

 

Round 2

GOOD CALL = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Lost in all the commotion of the Dodgers major financial woes (note to professional sports leagues: Don’t give franchises to people who have assets, but no cold hard cash) is the incredible season Kemp is having. I won’t take to much credit for predicting his success, but I did mention that he had the ability to produce top-5 production. Right now, he’s on pace for a 40-40 season.

BAD CALL = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – A long DL stint is mostly to blame for Zimmerman’s poor first half. He is capable of being a top-5 fantasy 3^rd basemen the rest of the way, so see if you can get him at a steep discount from a disgruntled owner in your league.

Round 3

GOOD CALL = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The league leader in strikeouts, Kershaw has officially arrived as a legitimate fantasy ace.

BAD CALL = Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers – A 5.63 ERA isn’t exactly what fantasy owners were looking from a player who was supposed to anchor a pitching staff.

 

 

Round 4

GOOD CALL = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – He’s cooled off a bit over the past few weeks, but you still can’t complain about a player with dual position eligibility that is on pace to hit 48 home runs.

BAD CALL = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez has been a complete train wreck so far. It looks more and more like his first half performance in 2010 was a fluke.

 

 

Round 5

GOOD CALL = David Price, SP, Rays – Overshadowed by fellow starter James Shields, Price has had a very solid first half. He’s currently ranked 38^th among all players.

BAD CALL = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His terrifying strikeout totals kept me from strongly endorsing Weeks in my mock draft, but so far he has posted a solid batting average along with 14 homers and seven steals.

 

 

Round 6

GOOD CALL = Jay Bruce, RF, Reds – Jay is currently on pace to smack 36 home runs, which gives him an outside shot to have 100 career home runs by the time he’s 24 years old. In retrospect, he should’ve gone in the 3^rd round in my keeper league.

BAD CALL = Mat Latos, SP, Padres – Latos has been a huge disappointment so far for No Credentials. Drafted as the second pitcher in one of my leagues, he’s been destroying my WHIP ever since an early season DL stint. The strikeouts are still there, so he is also a solid buy-low candidate (no one will buy him from me though. I’m in too deep).

Round 7

GOOD CALL = Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies - I predicted 15 homers, 40 steals, and over 100 runs scored for the Flyin’ Hawaiian this year. The steals aren’t quite there, but he’s on pace to hit the other two category goals.

BAD CALL = Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates – The worst pick of my mock so far. I’m embarrassed to say that I endorsed taking him in the 7^th round.

Round 8

GOOD CALL = Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers – Deemed the favorite “under the radar fantasy starter of 2011” by No Credentials, Marcum has delivered as the best pitcher for the first place Brewers.

BAD CALL = Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox – I’m fairly certain that at some point I wrote that the Sox should trade Ellsbury (if you dig deep enough into the No Credentials archive you’ll find it). All he’s done in the first half is steal 25 bases and hit 9 home runs. Without him, Carl Crawford’s struggles would have killed the Red Sox.

 

 

Round 9

GOOD CALL = Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks – I wrote in early March that if Young kept his batting average over .250 he’d have a shot at a 30-30 season. During the first half, he’s batting .255 with 15 homers and 10 steals.

BAD CALL = Brett Gardner, LF, Yankees – Here’s my preseason write-up on Gardner.

Gardner is essentially the same player as Jacoby Ellsbury (a speed-demon with no power that is prone to prolonged slumps). As mentioned earlier, on average, Ellsbury is going 58^th in ESPN drafts. Gardner is going 112^th. You’d be a damned fool to draft Ellsbury in the 5^th round when you can snag Gardner in the 9^th.

In related news, a damned fool wrote that Brett Gardner would provide the same production as Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

 

Round 10

GOOD CALL = Michael Bourn, CF, Astros – Bourn is on pace to swipe 70 bags this year. Even though he’s really only a 2-category guy (steals and runs), his dominance on the base paths is enough to have him ranked 24^th among all players in fantasy.

BAD CALL = Chone Figgins, 2B-3B, Mariners – Maybe it’s all the rain in Seattle, but for whatever reason, Figgins’ career has fallen over a cliff since he signed with them before the 2010 season. I finally cut him from my redraft league team three weeks ago.

 

 

Round 11

GOOD CALL = Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles – His .221 batting average has backed up my preseason plea for all fantasy owners to keep him off of their rosters. If you pick him up off the waiver wire, a cigarette box should pop up on your screen with a warning label that informs you of the dangers of owning Reynolds.

BAD CALL = Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers – I predicted that a full-season in Chavez-Ravine would keep a few of Lilly’s fastball from getting hit over the fence. Sadly, Lilly is actually on pace to give up a career high number of home runs.

Round 12

GOOD CALL = Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays – His strikeout rate isn’t spectacular, but Hellickson has done a good job of pitching to contact in his first full season in the big leagues. A WHIP of 1.16 is very impressive for a rookie pitcher in the AL East.

BAD CALL = Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox – No Credentials put the possibility out there that Thornton would end up as a top-10 closer. The season was roughly 10 days old when Ozzie Guillen stripped him of closing duties.

   

The First No Credentials Baseball Blockbuster

            We hadn’t seen much trading yet in the No Credentials Fantasy Baseball league (save for an exchange of Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero, which is fun in retrospect because both players have been cut from the teams that traded for them), but yours truly helped create the first blockbuster of the season. Here are the terms.

No Cred At All (managed by me) is trading Blue Jays 1B/OF Adam Lind, Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman, Yankees C Jesus Montero, and Nationals SP Jordan Zimmerman to Eastbound KP (managed by Mark the E-Bay Guy, the finest seller of Adidas Original’s footwear this side of the Tropic of Cancer) for Rays 3B Evan Longoria.

            Eastbound has done very well to currently sit 6^th in the season standings despite all of the terrible luck he’s had. Evan Longoria had a lengthy DL stint early in the season. Ubaldo Jimenez has mostly been a mess (with the exception of his past two starts). Justin Morneau still hasn’t found his groove since returning from a serious concussion. Phil Hughes suddenly lost the ability to throw a MLB quality fastball. To top it all off, Eastbound was the lucky owner in our league who had Buster Posey. Longoria was his first round pick, but with the boatload of players he’s getting back in return, the trade made sense for him. Ryan Zimmerman should be back within 10 days, and is capable of delivering top-30 value the rest of the season. Adam Lind can cover first base until Morneau gets straightened out, and then slide into the outfield if needed there. Jordan Zimmerman has delivered seven straight quality starts, and will be Eastbound’s fifth or sixth best pitcher.

            Of all these players, Montero may end up providing the production over the next four seasons. Montero is a major league ready hitter who is just waiting to be called up by the Yankees or traded to another team. I had Montero ranked as the 11^th most likely player to be kept for my 2012 team at the 1/4^th mark of the season. Even better for Eastbound is the price he would have to pay to keep him next season. I drafted Montero in the 30^th round, which means he can be kept for the price of a 30^th round pick for 2012. For me, Montero is the hardest player to part with.

            As for Longoria, I’m hopeful that he heats up as we get deeper into the summer months. Thanks to the quality of talent on my team, I’m unsure if he will be a one-year rental or a keeper candidate for 2012. In retrospect, I probably should’ve offered Desmond Jennings instead of Montero (as is the case with most fantasy teams, I have a ton of outfielders, but only Matt Wieters at catcher). That’s the only thing I would’ve changed with this offer. Lind and the two Zimmerman’s were ranked 20^th, 22^nd, and 24^th on my keeper ranks, so while all three are productive players, I should be fine without them going forward.

            All in all, this should be a great trade for both sides (provided Longoria gets his average up from the .240s). As soon as Montero is called up, Eastbound will have three hitters he should be able to start everyday and a solid new member of his starting rotation. We’ll look at this trade later in the season to see how it turned out for both sides.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 2

Here is the 2nd round of my 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft. Keep in mind that the goal here is to put together twelve 25-man teams (if you missed the first round, check out the most recent Sunday Draft).

2-13 = Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies – I would sign off on Utley from anywhere from pick 6 due to the position he plays. With this pick and David Wright at the end of round 1, team 12 would fill two of weaker spots on a fantasy roster with two excellent players.

2-14 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees – Sure he’s getting older, but he will still be hitting clean up in the middle of a powerful Yankees lineup. I would’ve had him in the early 3^rd, but getting fed popcorn by an A-List actress during the Super Bowl bumped his draft stock up. He joins Ryan Braun on Team 11.

2-15 = Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Similar to Pujols, I love the fact that Fielder is playing for a new contract. Unlike Pujols, Fielder’s hefty size (and rumored lack of ambition) would make me a little worried about using a pick this high on him. The first boom-or-bust player we’ve selected in the mock, Fielder joins Carl Crawford on Team 10.

2-16 = Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees – A safer pick than Fielder, but doesn’t have the same upside. I wouldn't complain about getting a guy who is a good bet to hit 35 homers with 120 RBIs at this point in the draft. He joins Roy Halladay on Team 9.

2-17 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF-LF-CF-RF, Rockies – Gonzalez was a monster last year. He hit .336 with 34 homers, 117 RBIs, and even through in 26 stolen bases for good measure. Production like that warrants a top-5 pick. So why do I have him this low?

            Gonzalez had a .384 BABIP average (BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play), which was the 3^rd highest in the league. Furthermore, 20.4% of his fly balls (a little over one for every five, for those of you that are slow in the math department) went for home runs. Both of those numbers will be very difficult to maintain. Throw a reduction in those two categories with his very poor strikeout to walk ratio (135-40 last season), and you are looking at a guy who could be a lot less valuable in 2011 than he was in 2010. Would I fault anyone for taking a chance on him in the middle of the first round? No, but you won’t see me making that pick for either of my two teams this season.

            Gonzalez joins Joey Votto on Team 8.

2-18 = Josh Hamilton, OF-LF-CF, Rangers – Hamilton is similar to Gonzalez, but with the added risk of injury thrown in. He led the league last year in BABIP at .391. His plate discipline is a little better than Gonzalez, so his average shouldn’t fall much lower than .280. If you were to pick Hamilton at this point, and he were to stay healthy, there’s a good chance you could win your league. Hamilton joins Adrian Gonzalez on Team 7.

2-19 = Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies – A regression in home runs last season means you will probably get Howard 7 or 8 picks later than you could’ve in 2010. He joins Evan Longoria on Team 6.

2-10 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – The only reason Hernandez wouldn’t go as high as Halladay is the disparity between the quality of the Phillies and Mariners. Hernandez joins Hanley Ramirez on Team 5.

2-21 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – Washington may have paid Jayson Werth way too much money, but in terms of Ryan Zimmerman’s fantasy value, he should be invaluable. Zimmerman finally has someone else on his team the opposing pitcher will have to worry about. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Zimmerman put up 30 homers and 110 RBIs. He joins Troy Tulowitzki on Team 4.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.

            After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from 4^th through the 8^th pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.

            With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

2-23 = Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – The best pitcher in the majors that no one ever talks about. Wainwright teams up with Miguel Cabrera on Team 2.

2-24 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox – No matter where Pedroia hits in the Red Sox lineup (I’m hoping for second, although there are rumors he will be put in the leadoff spot), he has a chance for a .320-15-90-125-20 season. He joins Pujols on Team 1.