2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 2

Here is the 2nd round of my 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft. Keep in mind that the goal here is to put together twelve 25-man teams (if you missed the first round, check out the most recent Sunday Draft).

2-13 = Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies – I would sign off on Utley from anywhere from pick 6 due to the position he plays. With this pick and David Wright at the end of round 1, team 12 would fill two of weaker spots on a fantasy roster with two excellent players.

2-14 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees – Sure he’s getting older, but he will still be hitting clean up in the middle of a powerful Yankees lineup. I would’ve had him in the early 3^rd, but getting fed popcorn by an A-List actress during the Super Bowl bumped his draft stock up. He joins Ryan Braun on Team 11.

2-15 = Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Similar to Pujols, I love the fact that Fielder is playing for a new contract. Unlike Pujols, Fielder’s hefty size (and rumored lack of ambition) would make me a little worried about using a pick this high on him. The first boom-or-bust player we’ve selected in the mock, Fielder joins Carl Crawford on Team 10.

2-16 = Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees – A safer pick than Fielder, but doesn’t have the same upside. I wouldn't complain about getting a guy who is a good bet to hit 35 homers with 120 RBIs at this point in the draft. He joins Roy Halladay on Team 9.

2-17 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF-LF-CF-RF, Rockies – Gonzalez was a monster last year. He hit .336 with 34 homers, 117 RBIs, and even through in 26 stolen bases for good measure. Production like that warrants a top-5 pick. So why do I have him this low?

            Gonzalez had a .384 BABIP average (BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play), which was the 3^rd highest in the league. Furthermore, 20.4% of his fly balls (a little over one for every five, for those of you that are slow in the math department) went for home runs. Both of those numbers will be very difficult to maintain. Throw a reduction in those two categories with his very poor strikeout to walk ratio (135-40 last season), and you are looking at a guy who could be a lot less valuable in 2011 than he was in 2010. Would I fault anyone for taking a chance on him in the middle of the first round? No, but you won’t see me making that pick for either of my two teams this season.

            Gonzalez joins Joey Votto on Team 8.

2-18 = Josh Hamilton, OF-LF-CF, Rangers – Hamilton is similar to Gonzalez, but with the added risk of injury thrown in. He led the league last year in BABIP at .391. His plate discipline is a little better than Gonzalez, so his average shouldn’t fall much lower than .280. If you were to pick Hamilton at this point, and he were to stay healthy, there’s a good chance you could win your league. Hamilton joins Adrian Gonzalez on Team 7.

2-19 = Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies – A regression in home runs last season means you will probably get Howard 7 or 8 picks later than you could’ve in 2010. He joins Evan Longoria on Team 6.

2-10 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – The only reason Hernandez wouldn’t go as high as Halladay is the disparity between the quality of the Phillies and Mariners. Hernandez joins Hanley Ramirez on Team 5.

2-21 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – Washington may have paid Jayson Werth way too much money, but in terms of Ryan Zimmerman’s fantasy value, he should be invaluable. Zimmerman finally has someone else on his team the opposing pitcher will have to worry about. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Zimmerman put up 30 homers and 110 RBIs. He joins Troy Tulowitzki on Team 4.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.

            After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from 4^th through the 8^th pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.

            With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

2-23 = Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – The best pitcher in the majors that no one ever talks about. Wainwright teams up with Miguel Cabrera on Team 2.

2-24 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox – No matter where Pedroia hits in the Red Sox lineup (I’m hoping for second, although there are rumors he will be put in the leadoff spot), he has a chance for a .320-15-90-125-20 season. He joins Pujols on Team 1.