2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Second Base

            For the first time since we’ve been posting fantasy baseball draft content, I’m ready to declare second base as a relatively deep position. It’s not necessarily a great talent boom that put us in this place, but in the post-steroids era, the tenth best fantasy second basemen won’t be that far off in terms of value from the first. Position scarcity fanatics would often have their middle infields filled early in drafts, but even with that mindset it makes sense to wait on second base. 2B is arguably the least stressful fantasy spot to fill this season.

Tier-1 = The Name Brands 

R.Cano, SEA

A.Rendon, WAS

J.Altuve, HOU

            Cano begrudgingly maintains the top spot on this list, even though Altuve was the top ranked fantasy second baseman a year ago and Rendon is the best five category producer. Seattle’s off-season additions give logical reasons to believe Cano will put up better counting stats during his second year in a Mariners uniform. Altuve is a likely regression candidate, but even if his batting average drops 50 points there is higher run potential leading off for an improved Astros club. All three of these guys are great picks in the second round.

Tier-2 = Store Brands? 

D.Gordon, MIA

I.Kinsler, DET

            We almost put these players in their own tiers, but ultimately they are both undervalued commodities. The fantasy community appears to be taking Gordon’s speed for granted (ESPN has him ranked as the ninth best second baseman), but the bottom line is he can single-handedly carry you in stolen bases. Kinsler is no longer a 20-20 machine, but 30 combined homers and steals still have value.

Tier-3 = MOOKIE! and Some Other People

J.Kipnis, CLE

M.Betts, BOS OF

B.Dozier, MIN

K.Wong, STL

D.Pedroia, BOS

            This group carries the highest risk-reward factor of any of the tiers at second base for a variety of reasons. Jason Kipnis hasn’t been reliable since the first half of the 2013 season, but a return to health could mean he delivers top-20 value again. Mookie Betts isn’t eligible at second in most leagues, and isn’t likely to get any starts there this season, so plan accordingly if you’re in a keeper league. Brian Dozier is the most likely person in this group to hit below the Mendoza Line, and aside from going bonkers in last year’s postseason Wong hasn’t shown enough consistency. Dustin Pedroia is the biggest stay away for me in this tier. He doesn’t rack up steals or homers anymore, and is value is completely tied to whether or not he can maintain a spot in the top third of the Red Sox lineup. He’s essentially taken on the role Derek Jeter did in fantasy for the better part of the last decade.

Tier-4 = Not Horrendous Options

N.Walker, PIT

B.Zobrist, OAK

J.Harrison, PIT 3B-OF

D.Murphy, NYM

H.Kendrick, LAD

            Josh Harrison stands out as a guy you want to have on your bench with his multi-position flexibility. Howie Kendrick could be a better version of Dustin Pedroia if he gets to hit first or second for the Dodgers.

Tier-5 = Upside Baby! 

J.Baez, CHC SS

B.Lawrie, OAK

            You shouldn’t rely on either Baez or Lawrie to be your starting second baseman, but don’t like them be un-owned at the end of your draft or auction. Baez posted a historically inept 42% strikeout rate after getting the call to the big leagues, but there is no middle infielder with as much power as him. If he can bat .250 over a full season, he will eclipse 35 homers. Lawrie has been a bust for years, and looks like the kind of player that magically turns into an All-Star after Billy Beane signs him.

Tier-6 = Bench/Waiver Wire Guys

C.Utley, PHI

A.Cabrera, TB

J.Gyorko, SD

M.Prado, MIA 3B-OF

B.Phillips, CIN

A.Alcantara, CHC

A.Hill, ARI

            Gyorko has the most upside here (he’s a homeless man’s Baez in terms of power potential), while Prado’s versatility is as valuable in fantasy as it is in real life.

No Credentials Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 3

3-21 = Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
2014 Projection = .272 AVG, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, 88 Rs, 27 SBs
            Barring an Ian Kinsler throwback season, no second basement will offer a better combination of steals and dingers than Kipnis.

Team 1 Roster = Kipnis, Miguel Cabrera, Yu Darvish

                  
3-22 = Yaisel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 26 HRs, 76 RBIs, 88 Rs, 17 SBs
            We’re probably too excited about Puig-mania from last summer, but regardless of where he hits within the top third of the Dodger lineup, he’s going to produce. There’s a pretty high ceiling here.

Team 2 Roster = Puig, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion

                    
3-23 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
2014 Projection = .270 AVG, 39 HRs, 91 RBIs, 81 Rs, 4 SBs
            Following an injury riddled campaign we think Stanton is in line for a return to his 2012 form. Like Puig, he’s another high ceiling player who realistically could hit 50 home runs.

Team 3 Roster = Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, David Wright

        
3-24 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
2014 Projection = .274 AVG, 36 HRs, 106 RBIs, 94 Rs, 3 SBs
            If Wil Myers takes a step forward in his sophomore campaign, Longoria will have the best lineup around him since Carl Crawford was in town.

Team 4 Roster = Longoria, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto

                     
3-25 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
2014 Projection = 15 Ws, 223 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
            Forgetting win totals (because people who use wins as a measure of the quality of a starting pitcher are dumb), Strasburg’s 2013 wasn’t as disappointing as some people have made it out to be. He’s the only starter with a realistic chance of competing with Yu Darvish for the strikeout lead.

Team 5 Roster = Strasburg, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury

                      
3-26 = Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
2014 Projection = .302 AVG, 24 HRs, 105 RBIs, 97 Rs, 3 SBs
            Asking Freeman to be the next Chipper Jones, the Braves really could use a power surge from Freeman to push them over the hump in the National League. He stands to benefit the most of the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward bounce back from disappointing 2013 seasons.

Team 6 Roster = Freeman, Bryce Harper, Adrian Beltre

        
3-27 = Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
2014 Projection = 16 Ws, 231 Ks, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
            Advanced stats say Scherzer will take a step back from his Cy Young winning 2013, but he’s still a strong bet to deliver top-10 value among starting pitchers.

Team 7 Roster = Scherzer, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones

        
3-28 = Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2014 Projection = .260 AVG, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 87 Rs, 36 SBs
            Gomez felt like a fluke to me last year, which means if you believe in him, you’re getting a one to two round discount.

Team 8 Roster = Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki

                    
3-29 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 Projection = .266 AVG, 33 HRs, 87 RBIs, 91 Rs, 6 SBs
            It’s hard to see Bautista returning to his peak power numbers, but even the slight chance of a return to that level of production makes him worth a third round pick.

Team 9 Roster = Bautista, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder

 

 



         
3-30 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
2014 Projection = .295 AVG, 16 HRs, 76 RBIs, 98 Rs, 18 SBs
            We’re guessing that Pedroia’s numbers won’t drop off at all without Jacoby Ellsbury hitting in front of him. If anything, he might run a little bit more.

Team 10 Roster = Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Rounds 2-3

Click here if you missed Round 1

2-11 = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
ESPN Projections = .301, 30 HRs, 102 RBIs, 92 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 3-23

            Tulowitzki murdered fantasy teams last year thanks to an injury filled 2012, but when healthy, he’s the only shortstop capable of delivering top-5 overall production. If you’re able to snag him in the third round, pat yourself on the back.

      
2-12 = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 233 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-15
            That 16-win projection feels low, unless the Dodgers follow the example set by the Lakers and struggle after making numerous big-time acquisitions.
    
2-13 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
ESPN Projections = .301, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 95 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-17
            Fantasy’s top rated player in 2010, Gonzalez should see an upswing in production if Troy Tulowitzki is able to stay on the field on a regular basis.
        
2-14 = Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
ESPN Projections = 20 Ws, 2.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 240 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-15
            No one delivers better value combined with such a high volume of innings like Verlander. The dude is a machine.
       
2-15 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .294, 34 HRs, 109 RBIs, 92 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            Longoria’s outlook is similar to Troy Tulowitzki’s, with the exception that he plays a much deeper position.
        
2-16 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .313, 34 HRs, 107 RBIs, 95 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-15 through 2-20
            Of all our second round position players, Beltre is the safest selection of them all. Which is funny because five years ago he was considered one of the biggest free agent busts of all time.
           
2-17 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
ESPN Projections = .278, 42 HRs, 103 RBIs, 90 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-13 through 3-23
            Those of you in re-draft leagues better not get to excited and take Stanton towards the end of the first round. He could lead the league in homers, but he’s not going to have very many teammates to drive in this year.
        
2-18 = Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = .318, 24 HRs, 98 RBIs, 76 Rs, 2 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            Posey’s torrid September carried many a fantasy team to a league championship last year. If you’re a big believer in value relative to position scarcity, Posey will be high on your draft board.
     
2-19 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = 19 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 213 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-17 through 3-25
            If Price weren’t stuck in the AL East, he’d be right up there in the Strasburg-Kershaw-Verlander tier.
 
2-20 = David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
ESPN Projections = .287, 27 HRs, 100 RBIs, 97 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-15 through 3-23
            As far as 5-category contributors go, there isn’t a better all-around third basemen in the game than David Wright. If only the team around him didn’t suck so much.

3-21 = Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .281, 28 HRs, 84 RBIs, 100 Rs, 20 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-13 through 3-27
            People are way to excited about Justin getting to play everyday with his brother. If Justin returns to his 2011 form, B.J. won’t be the reason.
          
3-22 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .268, 41 HRs, 108 RBIs, 98 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            If you’re willing to gamble on a player returning from injury, Bautista is you’re man. With the improved Toronto lineup, we could be talking about 50 dingers and 130 RBIs when it’s all said and done.
           
3-23 = Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
ESPN Projections = .293, 34 HRs, 113 RBIs, 93 Rs, 7 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            The way he exited Texas has put too much of a sour taste in my mouth to consider drafting him in the second round, although logically, he has an excellent chance of delivering top-10 value.
           
3-24 = Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .265, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 103 Rs, 21 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-16 through 3-28
            Kinsler used to be one of the larger injury risks in the game, but he’s only missed 12 games the past two seasons and has compiled the most plate appearances of any player in baseball. If you think he can push his average to .280, feel free to take him in the top half of the second round.
           
3-25 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
ESPN Projections = 14 Ws, 3.01 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 225 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-17 through 3-28
            If you are in a league that counts quality starts instead of wins, Hernandez deserves to be pushed up into the Strasburg-Kershaw-Verlander tier.
           
3-26 = Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .283, 36 HRs, 99 RBIs, 93 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-16 through 3-30
            Encarnacion busted out in a huge way in 2012, delivering the 12^th best fantasy campaign of any player. You get the “he’s only done it once, not sure if he can do it again” discount this year if you take him in the third.
           
3-27 = Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = .263, 24 HRs, 83 RBIs, 82 Rs, 26 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-21 through 3-30
            It wasn’t that long ago (two years in fact) that Hanley Ramirez was among the first three players taken in every single fantasy draft. Perhaps a full year away from the dysfunction in Miami can return Hanley to his previous form.
           
3-28 = Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .291, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs, 88 Rs, 34 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-21 through 4-34
            Joining a powerful Blue Jays lineup would seem to be fortuitous, but having to play his home games on Toronto’s artificial turf won’t be.

           

3-29 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

ESPN Projections = .293, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 92 Rs, 20 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-25 through 4-34
            A torrid second half of 2012 gives fantasy owners hope that Pedroia can return to his MVP-winning level of play. Watch where Boston sticks him in the batting order, as that will go a long way in determining his counting stats.
 
3-30 = Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .261, 30 HRs, 96 RBIs, 93 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-25 through 4-36
            Heyward rebounded nicely after a disastrous 2011-sophomore campaign. There’s no reason the addition of the Upton brothers will not enhance Heyward’s fantasy value this year.

Click here to check out rounds 4-5
             

Bobby Valentine - "I'm Keeping the Seat Warm for Francona"

Chicago, IL (AP) – Bobby Valentine dropped a bombshell before Thursday’s game with the White Sox, revealing that Boston hired him as a ploy to return the fan’s faith in former manager Terry Francona.

            “John Henry thought it would take until June for Red Sox Nation to begin chanting for Terry,” says Valentine, “Needless to say, I’ve exceeded his expectations.”
            Executives in the Red Sox front office never wanted to fire Francona after last season, but according to Valentine, knew Red Sox Nation would not be happy if they didn’t make a change after their disastrous performance in September.
           “The folks running this team know Boston fans have the I.Q. of an infant squirrel,” a relaxed Valentine said while leaning back in his chair, “So by hiring a dummy like me to run the team, Red Sox Nation would immediately forget about one of the worst September collapses in baseball history.” Valentine went on to rant about how he doesn’t fit in with the Red Sox.
            “You know I like to do things like lay on tanning beds, or lay out in the sun, or you know, any activity that makes my skin more orange. During the first day of Spring Training, Pedroia asked if I wanted to play a game of cribbage. Cribbage! My Nana played cribbage. I don’t belong in a place where I have to play board games with people.”
            Valentine didn’t say whether or not ESPN was in on the scheme, but did say that if Francona were rehired, it would be very likely that he would return to television.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 2-3

            If you missed Round 1, click here to get caught up.

2-13. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks

            It feels like Upton has been playing for years, but he’s only 24 years old. A 30-30 season is coming soon.

2-14. Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Miami Marlins

            There are tons of questions surrounding Hanley (is he fully healthy again, will he finally make peace with moving to third base), but if he’s firing on all cylinders, Ramirez could easily be the most valuable player in fantasy this season. Throw in the added third base eligibility (meaning you can plug him in at two of the weakest positions), and he’s well worth the risk at this point in the draft.

2-15. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

            Verlander’s 2011 performance was extraordinary, and it would be foolish for anyone to think he can duplicate it. In increase from last seasons ridiculous .236 BABIP was a certainty even before it was announced that Miguel Cabrera would spend time at third base. He will still be good, but if someone takes Halladay or Cliff Lee ahead of him in your draft, don’t snicker at him or her.

2-16. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Halladay’s incredible consistency has almost made him a boring player to draft. He might not be the top fantasy pitcher this season, but there isn’t anyone else who is a safer bet to finish the year in the top-5.

2-17. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

            Fresh off a career year in home runs and steals, Pedroia is poised to have another stellar all-around campaign.

2-18. Carlos Gonzalez, LF-CF-RF, Colorado Rockies

            Don’t ever expect his 2010 numbers again, but you shouldn’t be too bummed out about 50 combined homers and steals. You do need to be prepared for a batting average that can be anywhere from .260 to .320.

2-19. Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins

            If you like to gamble, you’ll bet on Reyes staying healthy for 150 games and giving you 50 steals and tons of runs hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton. If you’re conservative, you’ll stay away from him because of his injury history. He’s essentially the MLB version of Mike Vick.

2-20. Mike Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

            I’ve done a full 180 on Stanton, which may or may not be related to the fact that I took him in the eighth round of my keeper league draft last year. He should have more than enough RBI opportunities with Reyes and Ramirez hitting in front of him.

2-21. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Cliff Lee attacks the strike zone in a similar manner that George W. Bush assaulted the English language. Like Halladay, another dude that’s not exciting to draft.

2-22. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers

            Kinsler’s BABIP last seasons suggests that his batting average is due for an increase this year. The fact that 2011 was the first season Kinsler ever dodged the DL suggests that he is due for at least one 15-day stint. Whichever of those last two sentences you feel more strongly about should determine what pick (or money in an auction) you’re willing to spend on him.

2-23. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            While his first two teammates who were drafted are considered boring, Hamels is the trendy choice. His excellent ERA and WHIP hasn’t translated to the win column the past two seasons, which one could argue means that he’s due for a 20 win season.      

2-24. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

            He won’t do you any favors in the batting average department, but 35+ homers and 110+ RBIs aren’t easy to come by in the post-steroids era.

3-25. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Weaver delivered a career season last year, but don’t be shocked if his ERA creeps closer to 3 if his BABIP moves closer to the norm. Wins are a tough stat to predict, but with Pujols on board, they should be easier to come by for Weaver and the rest of the Angels staff.

3-26. Andrew McCutcheon, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

            McCutcheon was terrible after the All-Star Break, which derailed a potential breakout season. If he can play an entire season with a .280+ batting average, we could be talking about one of the ten most valuable players in fantasy.

3-27. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

            King Felix still might be the most talented starter in MLB, but Seattle’s anemic offense severely handicaps his win potential. Unless you’re in a league that has more categories than the standard 5x5 league, you have to drop him down your rankings.

3-28. Curtis Granderson, CF, New York Yankees

            Ever since the second half of the 2010 season, Granderson has been the modern day version of Mickey Mantle. Like Teixeira, Granderson will more than likely sport a poor batting average, but walks enough to still set the table for Cano, Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez.

3-29. C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees

            His peripheral numbers aren’t as strong as the other elite starters, but there isn’t a safer pitcher to bet on winning 20+ games than C.C. Bump him up your rankings even more if you are in a league that counts innings pitched as a stat category.

3-30. Josh Hamilton, LF-CF, Texas Rangers

            The last time I remember a player going 10 to 15 picks later than he should because of alcohol issues was Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is pretty good (incase you didn’t know), and so is Hamilton. He’s an injury risk, but I feel better taking him in the middle of the third round as opposed to the second.

3-31. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Lincecum is the NL version of Felix Hernandez, with a slightly better offense supporting him and more injury concerns.

3-32. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

            Thanks to the devastating loss of Jose Reyes, Wright’s supporting cast is a cast of misfit toys (with the exception of Ike Davis, if he’s healthy). Wright could be top-10 player in the second half if he gets traded, so he should be a player that is on your radar all season long after the draft.

3-33. Pablo Sandoval, 1B-3B, San Francisco Giants

            No Credentials predicts that this will be the season that the 25-year old Sandoval will crack the 30-homer mark. He won’t rack up a bunch of RBIs (he doesn’t exactly have the TECMO Super Baseball versions of Barry Bonds and Matt Williams on his team), but he delivers enough in the batting average department to warrant being the third player added to a team.

3-34. Desmond Jennings, LF-CF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            This pick is way to early. I’ll acknowledge that. However, guys with the potential to steal 50 bases and hit 15 home runs don’t grow on trees. If he keeps his average above .270 (which he was well above before a disastrous September last season), he’ll be one of the top 20 players in fantasy.

3-35. Nelson Cruz, LF-RF, Texas Rangers

            One of the greatest teases in fantasy baseball. If healthy, Cruz could easily top 45 home runs. However, Cruz pulls a groin about as often as Lindsey Lohan violates her probation. I’d prefer to get him in the middle of the fourth round.

3-36. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers

            Amazingly enough, Beltre is the fifth Rangers hitter off the board (think they’ll score some runs this year?) Beltre smashed 32 homers last year in only 124 games. Forecasting 40+ dingers would be a little optimistic (his health won’t allow it), but Beltre is still one of the sexier options at third base in the majors.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 2

Here is the 2nd round of my 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft. Keep in mind that the goal here is to put together twelve 25-man teams (if you missed the first round, check out the most recent Sunday Draft).

2-13 = Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies – I would sign off on Utley from anywhere from pick 6 due to the position he plays. With this pick and David Wright at the end of round 1, team 12 would fill two of weaker spots on a fantasy roster with two excellent players.

2-14 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees – Sure he’s getting older, but he will still be hitting clean up in the middle of a powerful Yankees lineup. I would’ve had him in the early 3^rd, but getting fed popcorn by an A-List actress during the Super Bowl bumped his draft stock up. He joins Ryan Braun on Team 11.

2-15 = Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Similar to Pujols, I love the fact that Fielder is playing for a new contract. Unlike Pujols, Fielder’s hefty size (and rumored lack of ambition) would make me a little worried about using a pick this high on him. The first boom-or-bust player we’ve selected in the mock, Fielder joins Carl Crawford on Team 10.

2-16 = Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees – A safer pick than Fielder, but doesn’t have the same upside. I wouldn't complain about getting a guy who is a good bet to hit 35 homers with 120 RBIs at this point in the draft. He joins Roy Halladay on Team 9.

2-17 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF-LF-CF-RF, Rockies – Gonzalez was a monster last year. He hit .336 with 34 homers, 117 RBIs, and even through in 26 stolen bases for good measure. Production like that warrants a top-5 pick. So why do I have him this low?

            Gonzalez had a .384 BABIP average (BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play), which was the 3^rd highest in the league. Furthermore, 20.4% of his fly balls (a little over one for every five, for those of you that are slow in the math department) went for home runs. Both of those numbers will be very difficult to maintain. Throw a reduction in those two categories with his very poor strikeout to walk ratio (135-40 last season), and you are looking at a guy who could be a lot less valuable in 2011 than he was in 2010. Would I fault anyone for taking a chance on him in the middle of the first round? No, but you won’t see me making that pick for either of my two teams this season.

            Gonzalez joins Joey Votto on Team 8.

2-18 = Josh Hamilton, OF-LF-CF, Rangers – Hamilton is similar to Gonzalez, but with the added risk of injury thrown in. He led the league last year in BABIP at .391. His plate discipline is a little better than Gonzalez, so his average shouldn’t fall much lower than .280. If you were to pick Hamilton at this point, and he were to stay healthy, there’s a good chance you could win your league. Hamilton joins Adrian Gonzalez on Team 7.

2-19 = Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies – A regression in home runs last season means you will probably get Howard 7 or 8 picks later than you could’ve in 2010. He joins Evan Longoria on Team 6.

2-10 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – The only reason Hernandez wouldn’t go as high as Halladay is the disparity between the quality of the Phillies and Mariners. Hernandez joins Hanley Ramirez on Team 5.

2-21 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – Washington may have paid Jayson Werth way too much money, but in terms of Ryan Zimmerman’s fantasy value, he should be invaluable. Zimmerman finally has someone else on his team the opposing pitcher will have to worry about. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Zimmerman put up 30 homers and 110 RBIs. He joins Troy Tulowitzki on Team 4.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.

            After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from 4^th through the 8^th pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.

            With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

2-23 = Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – The best pitcher in the majors that no one ever talks about. Wainwright teams up with Miguel Cabrera on Team 2.

2-24 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox – No matter where Pedroia hits in the Red Sox lineup (I’m hoping for second, although there are rumors he will be put in the leadoff spot), he has a chance for a .320-15-90-125-20 season. He joins Pujols on Team 1.