1-1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
.302 AVG, 28 HRS, 118 RBIs, 104 Rs, 8 SBs
Cano plays the weakest position in fantasy, and all indications are that this will be his first full season hitting third. Having Mark Teixeira hitting behind him will give him more fastballs to crank out of Yankee Stadium.
1-2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
.302 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 Rs, 9 SBsTulo plays the second weakest position in fantasy, and he’s a healthy year (which has never happened) away from his first 40-homer season.
1-3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers
.344 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 111 Rs, 2 SBsCabrera plays the third weakest position in fantasy (notice a trend?), and he has a near equal on his club for the first time in the form of Prince Fielder. It appears likely that Cabrera will hit in front of Fielder, which like Cano, should increase the number of quality pitches he has to hit.
1-4. Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Toronto Blue Jays
.302 AVG, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBsTwo years is enough of a sample size to declare Bautista a top-5 worthy pick. Depending on the position eligibility rules of your league, he’s #1 pick worthy in re-draft leagues if you can plug him in at third base.
1-5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
.299 AVG, 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBsI’m not crazy about the Angels line-up around Pujols, but if Pujols could help Lance Berkman return to elite status, couldn’t he do the same for a guy like Vernon Wells? Expect strategic use of the DH spot to keep Pujols fresh throughout the season.
1-6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
.309 AVG, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 Rs, 8 SBsVotto’s power numbers were down, but he showed improved plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for the first time in his career. A return to 35+ homers is likely.
1-7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
.244 AVG, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs, 78 Rs, 3 SBsBlame a dreadful BABIP for Longoria’s deflated 2011 batting average. A return to the norm in that statistic combined with avoiding the DL could lead to an MVP-caliber season for Longoria. Don’t be shocked if he puts up a .285-41-125-105-15 line.
1-8. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
.324 AVG, 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, 115 Rs, 40 SBsThere’s a 5% chance that Kemp will be available with the eighth pick in your draft, but here’s why he’s this low in this mock. Let’s take a look at what I wrote last year about Kemp in my 2011 mock draft.
2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.
After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from fourth through the eighth pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.
With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.
To make a long story short, the same theory still applies, but in reverse. Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio last season was 159-74. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Kemp’s average fell back into the .260 range. If that’s the case, his counting stats won’t be nearly as high (think something closer to 25-25 in homers and steals, which is still useful, but not first round worthy with a mediocre batting average). Rather than spend a top-3 pick on Kemp in the draft (or spend too much on him in an auction), I’d prefer to target him in a trade if he starts slow this season.
1-9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox
.338 AVG, 27 HRs, 117 RBIs, 108 Rs, 1 SBTake 15 of the 45 doubles Gonzalez cranked out, turn them into homeruns, and you get the 42+ homers No Credentials expects Gonzo to hit in 2012. You could take him fifth in your draft and I wouldn’t make fun of you.
1-10. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers
.298 AVG, 38 HRs, 120 RBIs, 95 Rs, 1 SBHis home run total might dip a bit, but the rest of his counting stats should be similar being paired up with Miguel Cabrera as they were with Ryan Braun.
1-11. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox
.321 AVG, 31 HRs, 105 RBIs, 119 Rs, 39 SBsEllsbury probably should be higher, but No Credentials would like to see one more healthy season before using a top-5 pick on him. If he suits up for 155+ games again, he should produce a .300 AVG and 70 combined homers and steals.
1-12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 Ks, 0.98 WHIPKershaw has reduced his walk rate every year in the league, and at age 23, appears poised to be the dominant pitcher in the National League for the next decade. The advantage of being in the NL puts Kershaw ahead of Verlander in my book. Anyone that owns Kershaw in a keeper league but decides not to keep him for 2012 should be banned from playing fantasy baseball.
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