Irrelevant

36. Robby Gordon - #7 Dodge – Robby Gordon Motorsports

“They should just name thirty-sixth place “Robby Gordon Place”. He owns it.” – my wife on Robby Gordon.

35. Joe Nemechek - #87 Chevrolet – NEMCO Motorsports

Joe Nemechek is to “Start-and-Park” what Kenny Loggins was to theme songs for movies in the 1980s.

34. Casey Mears - #13 Geico Toyota – Germain Racing

It’s hard to believe that Mears spent his first seven years driving for Chip Ganassi, Rick Hendrick, and Richard Childress, and somehow only finished in the top-5 12 times. He could very well of been the worst driver of the ‘00s.

Part-Timers That Could Win a Plate Race

33. Danica Patrick - #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet – Stewart-Haas Racing

Danica will get her feet wet in Sprint Cup with 10 starts this season while running the full Nationwide Series schedule. Skipping the Indy 500 this year shows that she’s serious about stock-car racing. She’ll take her lumps (her Twin 150 Crash a prime example) running in Cup, but I expect her to win a race this season in Nationwide.

32. Elliott Sadler - #33 Kroger Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Sadler will at least run in the Daytona 500 thanks to the guaranteed starting spot the #33 car has based on owners points from last season. Richard Childress fielded the strongest restrictor plate cars last season, making Sadler the best long-shot bet to win the 500.

31. Ricky Stenhouse - #6 Eco Boost Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

The defending Nationwide Series Champion will get his feet wet in Sprint Cup driving the unsponsored #6 car, which is guaranteed a spot in the field for the first five races. I wouldn’t be surprised if some strong runs at places like Phoenix early in the season earn some sporadic sponsorship for the #6 throughout the season.

30. Trevor Bayne - #21 Motorcraft Ford – Wood Brothers Racing

Bayne already proved he can get it done on the plate tracks with his shocking Daytona 500 win last season, but needs to demonstrate more consistency everywhere else to prove that he is a future star in the series. His Sprint Cup success is mostly irrelevant, but I’d like to see him win 3 races and a championship running the Nationwide Series this season.

Many Moons Past His Prime

29. Bobby Labonte - #47 Kroger Toyota – JTC Daugherty Racing

Much like the last decade of both Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip’s careers, Labonte looks like a guy who is just out there for a paycheck. NASCAR fans under the age of 15 might not even realize that at one time, Labonte was one of the five best drivers in the sport.

How Are They in Sprint Cup Again?

28. David Gilliland - #38 Ford – Front Row Motorsports

27. Aric Almirola - #43 Smithfield Ford – Richard Petty Motorsports
I really don’t have anything insightful to write about these guys. You’re just going to have to look for your Gilliland and/or Almirola discussion somewhere else.

Kicked to the Curb

26. David Ragan - #34 Ford – Front Row Motorsports

I’m not sure who had a worse winter, Ragan or anyone who owned a ski resort in the Northeast. First, his team at Roush Racing was “shut down” because of a lack of sponsorship, only to then announce that they would start the season with Ricky Stenhouse while the car is guaranteed a spot in the field. Then he lost out on not one, but two job openings with Penske Motorsports and Phoenix Racing. At least the team he ended up with is a level above start and park caliber.

Just Wants to Thank the Fans

25. Mark Martin - #55 Aaron’s Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

Martin will be sharing the Aaron’s Dream Machine with Michael Waltrip this season. If nothing else, expect him to have the same impact he had when drove the 01 Army care back in 2007. He won’t contend for wins, but look for the performance of Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex to improve because of his leadership.

Could Steal a Win With Pit Strategy

24. Regan Smith - #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet – Furniture Row Racing

The most underrated moment of the 2011 season was Regan Smith’s shocking upset victory at Darlington last May.

23. Jamie McMurray - #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet – Earnhardt Ganassi Racing

No Credentials’ most accurate 2011 prediction was that Jamie McMurray would struggle to finish in the top-20 in points. His 2010 campaign will go down as the most out of the blue seasons a Sprint Cup Driver has ever had.

22. Paul Menard - #27 Menards Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Menard’s theft of last seasons Brickyard 400 from Jeff Gordon transformed him into the greatest trust fund child to ever win a Cup race.

21. Joey Logano - #20 The Home Depot Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Logano is exhibit A of No Credentials case that drivers were rushed to quickly into Winston/Nextel/Sprint Cup over the last decade. There’s a chance he’ll be out of a gig with Joe Gibbs after the season, and he just turned 21. If Logano was a stock, I’d buy low to reap the benefits of his championship-winning season in 2021.

20. Jeff Burton - #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Burton is over the hill, but he’s called “The Mayor” of NASCAR, which gives him some street (oval?) cred.

Master of Right Turns

19. Marcos Ambrose - #9 Stanley Ford – Richard Petty Motorsports

The top road racer in the series started to flex his muscle at ovals last season, registering a career high ten top-10 finishes at tracks that only require left hand turns. If Ambrose sweeps Sonoma and Watkins Glen, and then steals a win at one of the restrictor plate tracks (he looked solid in the Bud Shootout), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Ambrose could steal a spot in The Chase.

Fringe Chase Contenders

18. Kurt Busch - #51 Chevrolet – Phoenix Racing

Busch’s path to an unlikely Chase berth is similar to Ambrose, with the advantage of superior performance on short tracks. Expect Busch to struggle at the mile and a half tracks, but he’ll be a contender everywhere else. It’s just a matter of how well his equipment will hold up. Either way, expect Busch back in a championship contending car in 2013.

17. Martin Truex Jr. - #56 Napa Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

After a mostly mediocre first two years driving for Michael Waltrip, Truex posted four top-10s in the final five races of 2012. Normally that would be a sign of optimism, but the addition of Clint Bowyer to the MWR lineup gives No Credentials reason for concern. Truex is no longer the lead driver, which isn’t a good situation when you’re on a team that hasn’t even proven it can field one championship contending car, much less two.

16. Juan Pablo Montoya - #42 Target Chevrolet – Earnhardt Ganassi Racing

I have Juan Pablo ranked about five spots higher than I should, but I’ve had a fantasy basketball team named after him for five years now, so I’m a little biased. Chip Ganassi has fielded competitive cars every second or third year, so don’t be surprised to see Montoya have a solid bounce back campaign.

15. Ryan Newman - #39 Army Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

Newman is amazing. For the last four years I think I’ve been predicting the end of competitiveness for the Rocket Man, but somehow he always seems to find a way to wiggle his way into The Chase. At least this year I’m predicting he’ll wind up in the top 20 (last year I ranked him at 24 before the season…oops!) so I won’t look as bad when he inevitably ends up with one of the 12 tickets to The Chase.

14. Clint Bowyer - #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

My wife pronounces Bowyer’s last name “Bauer”, like Kiefer Sutherland’s character in “24”. That has no relevance to anything, but just thought I would note it.
Bowyer brings tons of credibility to MWR. He’s the first A-list driver to leave a top-flight team to join them (although it should be noted that he’d still be driving for Richard Childress is the sponsorship package was more secure last fall). I think a year of adjustment will result in Bowyer just missing The Chase this season, but look for big things in 2013.

13. A.J. Allmendinger - #22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge – Penske Racing

I had Allmendinger ranked pretty high in last year’s preseason poll when he was driving for Richard Petty, so naturally No Credentials is all-in on Allmendinger and his move to Penske. Joining an organization that put two cars in last season’s playoffs is a big deal. Allmendinger will have his growing paints initially, but expect him to be a contender to crack The Chase (either via wildcard spot or by being in the top 10 in points during the regular season) all year long.

12. Greg Biffle - #16 3M Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Biffle hasn’t put together a serious championship contending campaign since 2005, and No Credentials sees little reason to believe he’ll be able to do it this season. Cutting the #6 car may allow Roush to field stronger cars for him, but he’s still the third banana behind Edwards and Kenseth. Expect a few poles, quite a few laps led, and lot of finishes between 15 and 20.

The People’s Champ

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - #88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Call me crazy, but I think it’s a benefit that Danica Patrick has stolen most of the media attention from Earnhardt during Speedweeks. Junior has never been under the radar at any event in his life, and while plenty of his loyal fans are desperate for him to win for the first time in almost four years, at least the national media is off his back. All of NASCAR would benefit if Dale Jr. visits victory lane this Sunday.

Legitimate Title Contenders

10. Kyle Busch - #18 M&Ms Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Busch answered a few questions about how he would bounce back after almost getting his walking papers at the end of last season during his performance in last Sunday’s Bud Shootout. However, Busch’s disturbing trend of pulling a Tony Romo in The Chase needs to change. For as many wins as Shrub has collected in all three of NASCAR’s major series, he’s only won once during The Chase.

9. Tony Stewart - #14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

The last time Stewart was in line to defend a championship, he responded by missing The Chase. No Credentials won’t forecast that result, but I do expect there to be a championship hangover for Smoke before he catches fire in the summer.

8. Kasey Kahne - #5 Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

There isn’t a harder driver to forecast than Kahne, who makes his long awaited debut for Rick Hendrick in the Daytona 500. How you think he’ll fair this season largely depends on what type of equipment you think Kahne has been dealing with his entire career. If he could put Red Bull into victory lane last season two races before the entire team shut down, what sort of work can he get done driving for the most powerful team in NASCAR? No Credentials will hedge a put and stick Kahne hear, but don’t be shocked if NASCAR’s prettiest driver (just ask the ladies) is a serious championship threat come November.

7. Kevin Harvick - #29 Budweiser Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

I like the move by Harvick to shut down his Nationwide and Truck teams to focus on Sprint Cup and raising his soon to be born son. I’m not sold on the strength of Richard Childress Racing at this point in time (look at his two teammates…woof), but Harvick is talented enough to will the Budweiser Chevrolet into The Chase.

6. Jeff Gordon - #24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Gordon’s 2012 didn’t start the way he drew it up, but things can only go up from that right? If crew chief Alan Gustafoson can will more efforts out of Gordon like the one he made at Atlanta last fall, a fifth championship is within reach.

5. Matt Kenseth - #17 Best Buy Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Want to know what the biggest sponsor downgrade of 2012 is? Without question, it’s Matt Kenseth going from Crown Royale Black to Best Buy. This won’t have any impact in his on track performance, but No Credentials wouldn’t be No Credentials without making some worthless commentary.

The Media’s Contenders

4. Jimmie Johnson - #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

It’s fantastic to go into a Sprint Cup season without Jimmie Johnson as the defending champion, but secretly it might be better for Johnson than anyone else. No longer burdened with keeping up a historic streak, Johnson and Crew Chief Chad Knaus seem looser than ever. The history of the sport says it’s unlikely that Johnson will ever win a championship again (the only drivers to win a championship after a run of consecutive championship? Petty, Waltrip, and Earnhardt) but no one has The Chase figured out like the 48 team. He’ll be a threat this season.

3. Brad Keselowski - #2 Miller Lite Dodge – Penske Racing

A year ago at this time people were wondering aloud whether Keselowski should’ve bypassed earning Sprint Cup points to defend his Nationwide championship. Now he’s the popular dark horse pick to win the 2012 title. What a difference a year makes.

The Media’s Champ

2. Carl Edwards - #99 Aflac Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Cousin Carl’s attitude and demeanor seem just fine after last season’s devastating championship loss to Tony Stewart. Expect Carl to be more aggressive this year, and significantly increase his win total from last year.

No Credentials Championship Pick

1. Denny Hamlin - #11 Fed-Ex Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

I don’t have any tangible reason to expect a return to his 2010 form, other than the addition of last year’s Championship Crew Chief, Darian Grubb. However, I’m going to look at the career track of Carl Edwards to justify a return to championship form for Hamlin.
Edwards was a popular pick to win the 2006 title after his breakout 2005 campaign. Edwards responded by going winless, missing the chase, and finishing twelfth in the standings. Carl was again the favorite after his 9-win 2008 season, and responded by posting another winless season. Last year, Hamlin was a preseason favorite amongst most media outlets (not No Credentials though. Big ups to us on that one), but responded by winning only once and limping to a ninth place finish in the standings. What does this all mean? Just because Hamlin had a down year (down is being generous actually. Hamlin’s average finish was the worst he posted in any of his full Sprint Cup seasons) doesn’t mean he can’t rebound to contend for a title this year. That’s why Denny Hamlin is No Credentials pick to win the 2012 Sprint Cup Championship.

No Credentials At All

Friday, February 24, 2012

Blow Out the Budget 2012 NASCAR Preview