Wednesday, February 27, 2013

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

     Welcome to the third annual fantasy baseball mock draft. Today we start the tedious task of building ten individual fantasy teams from scratch. The format for this fake league is a standard, single-year 10-team head-to-head league with 5 x 5 scoring (I think we just set the record for nerdiest sentence in No Credentials history). I make each individual pick myself, without any bias to any of the ten teams. In other words, I try to make the best choice for each team with every given selection. Each roster will be 25 players deep, which is larger than your standard leagues, but will allow me to cover a few more "sleeper" picks (I put sleeper in quotes because if you do enough research, you'll find eleventybillion articles on who experts think will be "sleepers" this year. By the way, research means "doing a Google search" in the world of No Credentials).
     Before we get started, I'll share a few of my basic principles that I will draft my teams with this season. These principles apply for all rounds of the draft.

1. With the lack of offense in the non-steroids era, I will generally wait on starting pitching. I prefer to have one staff ace picked in the first five rounds, but don't mind waiting until as late as the tenth round to take a second starter.
2. Ditto for closers. With a little foresight, saves can always be found during the season.
3. Infielders are more valuable than outfielders, as there simply isn't a whole lot of depth at any of the infield spots. Even first base, which traditionally has been the deepest position in fantasy for years, doesn't look as sexy after Pujols-Votto-Fielder come off the board. I'll happily try to plug one or two holes in my outfield during the season via trade or the waiver wire if it means I have a solid group of infielders I can rely on.

     Without further ado, the first round...

 


1-1  = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
ESPN Projections = .285, 22 HRs, 69 RBIs, 112 Rs. 46 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            I see where regression is certainly possible from Trout’s unbelievable .326-30-83-129-49 line, but even if his batting average were to drop 40 points, the added month of play should keep his counting stats high. If he hits for less power, that will probably translate to more steals. No matter which way you slice it Trout will be a top-5 fantasy producer.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
ESPN Projections = .336, 39 HRs, 127 RBIs, 116 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Coming off the first Triple Crown winning season in 46 years, Cabrera has a solid chance of repeating the feat with the additions of Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez to the line-up.
 
1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
ESPN Projections = .313, 33 HRs, 109 RBIs, 106 Rs, 6 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-2 through 1-4
            Cano’s level of production at second base is unparalleled among his peers. If New York makes the post season, pencil him in as your AL MVP.
 
1-4  = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ESPN Projections = .319, 36 HRs, 111 RBIs, 108 Rs, 29 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Braun already has delivered one outstanding season while dealing with PED allegations, so there’s no reason to believe that his link to a Florida steroids dealer will impact him this year.

1-5  = Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers
ESPN Projections = .313, 35 HRs, 116 RBIs, 97 Rs, 1 SB
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 1-10
            We already talked about what Detroit’s off-season acquisitions could do for Miguel Cabrera, but they should be even more valuable for Prince Fielder. Expect him to see a few more fastballs to crank out of the park this year.

1-6  = Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = .297, 33 HRs, 103 RBIs, 98 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-11
            Kemp might not steal 39 bases like he did in 2011 ever again, but if healthy, 40 dingers, 120 RBIs, and 115 Rs are in play with Adrian Gonzalez hitting behind him.
 
1-7  = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ESPN Projections = .299, 27 HRs, 91 RBIs, 101 Rs, 24 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-15
            If we could somehow transport McCutchen to a team with an actual clean-up hitter, we’d be talking about a potential top overall pick. For now, he’s a plus 5-category contributor who is just entering his prime.

1-8  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
ESPN Projections = .300, 34 HRs, 115 RBIs, 102 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-12
            Pujols isn’t the level of player he used to be (to be honest, who is? Pujols was ridiculous in his prime with St. Louis), but there’s a strong possibility his second season in the American League will go better than the first.
 
1-9  = Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = .320, 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, 95 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-7 through 2-18
           The riskiest pick of this first round group, Votto needs to demonstrate his power has returned before you should consider making him the centerpiece of your fantasy team. No Credentials is stepping out on a limb and predicting he will return to his pre-injury form of a year ago, but watch him closely in Spring Training.
 
1-10 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 234 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-20
            Hopefully freed of the innings limit that that took him out of the Nationals stretch run (it’s sort of like “Django Unchained”, minus the slavery), Strasburg will be fully unleashed on the National League. I’m more bullish on him than most experts, predicting that his ERA lands somewhere in the 2.80 range. Being able to contribute for the whole season will benefit him immensely.

Click here to check out the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the mock draft


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