Saturday, February 2, 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets and Pick


            Here’s our favorite prop bets for tomorrow night’s game, with our official Super Bowl pick at the end.


Cross-Sport Bets

49ers Points (+3) over Blake Griffin’s Combined Points and Rebounds vs. Boston Celtics
            Griffin is averaging just under 19 and 9 for the season. I like San Francisco to at least score 25 points, if not a bunch more.

Joe Flacco Touchdown Passes (-115) Greater Than Kobe Bryant’s Number of 3-Point Field Goals Made
            At the time of this writing, Kobe hasn’t hit a 3 in his last six games. Furthermore, he hasn’t even attempted a long-range shot in two of the games, and only attempted one in two more. Remember this when Kobe goes 5 for 7 on Sunday from distance.

Lionel Messi Goals (-0.5) over Frank Gore Touchdowns

            Lionel Messi scored 4 goals in one game this past Sunday. Gore’s going to need to hit pay dirt twice to make this bet competitive.

Chris Bosh Points (-0.5) over Largest Lead of Super Bowl XLVII

            Bosh averages 17 a game, plus he’s making another trip to Toronto, which could mean he wants to put on a show for his former hometown fans. God (working through the body of Ray Lewis, which apparently was a side effect of his deer-antler spray purchase) will not allow this game to get out of hand.

Distance of First Touchdown Pass of Super Bowl XLVII (-6.5) over Steve Nash’s Total Assists
            Kobe Bryant is doing all the distributing in Laker-Land now. This is the easiest bet on the cross-sports board.
 

San Francisco 49ers Player Props


Colin Kaepernick Will Score a Rushing Touchdown (+115)
            Hard to believe we won’t have some “Kaepernicking” on Super Bowl Sunday.

Frank Gore Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
            San Francisco has done a masterful job of managing Gore’s carries all season. There won’t be any restrictions against Baltimore, a team that is vulnerable against the run.

LaMichael James Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards (EVEN)
LaMichael James Will Score a Touchdown (+300)
            James started making an impact the last quarter of the regular season (remember his long-kickoff return after 28 straight Patriots’ points turned around a near collapse in December), and as mentioned in the previous prop, Baltimore is vulnerable against the run.

Randy Moss Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
            Randy Moss might not of been the greatest wide receiver of all-time, but no one was more feared. Think of him as the Barry Sanders of wide receivers. Even now opposing defenses still roll a safety to his side of the field for deep help.


Baltimore Ravens Player Props

Joe Flacco Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
            Flacco isn’t a stiff, even though he looks like one. I see at least one 3rd and 4 that ends with Flacco scampering out of bounds with a gain of 5.

Ray Rice Receptions Over 3.5 (+120)
            Baltimore probably will have a hard time running the ball, but that won’t limit the Ravens from getting the ball to one of the best receiving backs in the league. I could see Rice hauling in five or six passes.

Jacoby Jones Will Score a Touchdown (+350)
            The only long-shot bet for a Ravens player to score that I like.
 

Super Bowl XLVII Game Props

Longest Touchdown of Super Bowl XLVII Over 45.5 (-115)
            Each team has electric return men, defenses that can generate turnovers, and plenty of playmakers on offense. It would be hard to believe we won’t see one long touchdown.

Total Sacks in Super Bowl XLVII Under 4.5 (-115)
            Both offensive lines are solid. Only way this goes over is if San Francisco jumps all over Baltimore and Flacco has to throw 55 times.

San Francisco 49ers Will Throw Challenge Flag First (-115)
            This shouldn’t be a newsflash for anyone, but Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. He is a little reckless sometimes with the challenge flag though.

One Quarter of Super Bowl XLVII Will Be Scoreless (+180)
            Both defenses are talented enough to combine for a scoreless quarter.


Novelty Props

Color of Gatorade Dumped on Winning Head Coach Will Be Red (+350)
            This will make sense when you get to my pick at the end of this column.

MVP of the Super Bowl Will Thank God First (EVEN)
            If you’re a supporter of the Ray Lewis, this will be your favorite bet on the board.

Alicia Keys Will Take Longer Than 2 Minutes and 5 Seconds to Sing National Anthem (-115)
            I couldn’t find a clip of Keys performing the anthem (this was a valuable scouting tool when Christina Aguilera botched the National Anthem a couple of years ago), but I see a long, dragged out, R & B version.

Jim Harbaugh Will Be First Coach Shown On Television After Opening Kickoff (-120)
            Sorry John, Jim is way more interesting.


No Credentials Prediction

49ers (-3.5) over Ravens
            San Francisco will dominate the line of scrimmage offensively, and create a couple of turnovers to slow down the Ravens. Giving Jim Harbaugh two weeks to come up with a game plan is dangerous.

San Francisco 38, Baltimore 28


Regular Season = 140-111-5
Postseason = 6-4

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