I had Adam Wainwright ranked as the 3rd pitcher that should be taken in standard fantasy leagues this season (and had him as the 23rd overall pick), but sadly he has to undergo Tommy John surgery and will be lost for the season. Rather than reset the entire draft from the point of where he was originally taken, I’ve instead moved starting pitchers up one slot earlier than they were originally chosen. It’s not perfect, but it still reflects the order I think starters should be chosen. Here’s the updated list of pitchers taken in the first 4 rounds.
Roy Halladay, PHI, 1-9
Felix Hernandez, SEA, 2-20
Tim Lincecum, SF, 2-23
Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 3-25
Zack Greinke, MIL, 3-30
Cliff Lee, PHI, 3-31
Jon Lester, BOS, 3-35
C.C. Sabathia, NYY, 4-37
Ubaldo Jimenez, COL, 4-40
Josh Johnson, FLA, 4-45
Justin Verlander, DET, 4-48
Just looking at that group, wouldn’t you be happy with any of those guys as your fantasy staff ace? It probably makes sense to wait on pitching until the middle of the 4th round. Now, on to the 5th round…
5-49 = Ichiro, OF-RF, Mariners – Seattle’s offense was so historically terrible that Ichiro only scored 74 runs despite posting a .315 batting average. Despite that, this is a great spot to grab a career .331 hitter who should swipe at least 35 bases.
Team 1 Roster = Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Ichiro
5-50 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers – Beltre is a scary dude to draft. The only time he has ever hit over .300 in his career is when he is playing for a new contract (2004 with the Dodgers and 2010 with Boston). The one major factor this time around is instead of signing with a team with a gigantic park (Seattle), he’s going to play half of his games in one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. You probably won’t see me make this pick on draft day, but due to the position he plays (and lack of talented 3B left on the board), grabbing Beltre here is justified (just don’t grab him by the head, he’ll punch you in the face).
Team 2 Roster = Miguel Cabrera (I’ll explain why I haven’t adjusted the draft for him later), Tim Lincecum, Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Adrian Beltre
5-51 = David Price, SP, Rays – Currently in ESPN.com live drafts, Price is being chosen around the 70th pick. I think people are very concerned about the free agent losses the Rays are going to have to deal with, as well as the overcrowded AL East. Even if the Rays are sub par, I don’t see that having a dramatic impact on Price’s stats or development. This is a guy that posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while pitching a great deal of his games against the Red Sox and Yankees (for comparison’s sake, Jon Lester posted a 3.25 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, and he went 16 picks earlier).
Team 3 Roster = Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, David Price
5-52 = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – Exhibit A of my theory that if you don’t get one of the top middle-infielders within the first 25 picks, you might want to wait until later in the draft to address the middle infield. Weeks put up 29 homers last season, but his 184 strikeouts show he is a candidate to have a miserable season (think .230 batting average with 200 Ks).
Team 4 Roster = Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin Soo Choo, Josh Johnson, Rickie Weeks
5-53 = Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins – Morneau is still feeling effects from a concussion he sustained in July, but at least he is participating in Spring Training drills. This is a great spot to take a guy who put up a 1.055 OPS while healthy in 2010.
Team 5 Roster = Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Ian Kinsler, Jose Bautista, Justin Morneau
5-54 = Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees – Exhibit B of why you either need to take a middle infielder early or punt until the later rounds. You know runs will be there, but do you really want to use a 5th round pick on a guy who put up a .270-10-67 line last season?
Team 6 Roster = Evan Longoria, Ryan Howard, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Derek Jeter
5-55 = Jayson Werth, OF-CF-RF, Nationals – Werth is vastly overpaid in real life, but that doesn’t mean you should shun him from your fantasy team. He should form a great 1-2 punch with Ryan Zimmerman.
Team 7 Roster = Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Jayson Werth
5-56 = Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies – Pitched great during the second half of 2010 despite very poor run support. It’s pretty amazing that three Phillies starters went in this mock by the 56th pick.
Team 8 Roster = Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Dan Uggla, Cole Hamels
5-57 = Brian McCann, C, Braves – If you had to bet on one catcher to hit between 20 and 25 home runs and drive in 80+ runs, this is the guy.
Team 9 Roster = Roy Halladay, Mark Teixeira, Andrew McCutchen, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian McCann
5-58 = Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs – Ramirez was on my fantasy team last year, and let me tell you he was terrible. However, a thumb injury was largely to blame for his struggles during the first half of the season. I fully expect Ramirez to bounce back to a line of around .290-27-105, with potential for more due to his impending free agency after the season.
Team 10 Roster = Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez
5-59 = Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox – In the post-steroids era, guys that hit 40 home runs don’t grow on trees anymore the way they used to. This makes Dunn, who has hit between 38 and 46 home runs every season since 2004, a valuable commodity despite his very high strikeout rate.
Team 11 Roster = Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Jon Lester, Buster Posey, Adam Dunn
5-60 = Carlos Santana, C, Indians – Santana was well on his way to a stellar rookie season before a devastating leg injury at Fenway park (I’d post a video link to it, but the people running Major League Baseball are stuck in 1974 and don’t see the value of letting fans view classic highlights and moments. Because you know, that might boost fan interest. Someone tell me again why Bud Selig still runs baseball?). Santana posted a remarkable .401 OBP in 46 games, with a walk to strikeout ratio of 37-29. Patience like that for a rookie is remarkable. Santana has all the tools to become the best catcher in baseball.
Team 12 Roster = David Wright, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Carlos Santana
Which of these teams is off to the best start? Let me know what you think in the comments section below this article.
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