AL West Preview

4. Seattle Mariners

A-Level = RF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

B-Level = 3B Chone Figgins

C-Level = 1B Justin Smoak, SS Jack Wilson, CF Franklin Gutierrez, DH Jack Cust, SP Erik Bedard, SP Michael Pineda

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 60 wins

Best Case Scenario = For Seattle to contend in the AL West, a lot of things need to happen. Chone Figgins needs to return to the form he showed during his years with the Angels. Justin Smoak needs to establish himself as a Major Leaguer after a disappointing first stint with Texas. Seattle needs at least 160 quality innings out of stud rookie Michael Pineda (at the time of this writing, it appears he’s on track for winning the 5^th starting spot). And lastly, they need 180 innings out of Erik Bedard. The odds of Bedard reaching that number are about the same as the odds of the moon crashing into the Earth, but this paragraph is titled “best case scenario”, so we can dream.

Outlook = It’s difficult to believe that all of those scenarios will occur during the same season. Look for Seattle’s offense to struggle, leaving the team with only 66 wins at season’s end.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A-Level = SP Jered Weaver, SP Dan Haren

B-Level = 1B Kendrys Morales, LF Vernon Wells, RF Torii Hunter, DH Bobby Abreu, SP Ervin Santana

C-Level = 2B Howard Kendrick, CF Peter Bourjos, SP Scott Kazmir, SP Joel Piniero

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 75 wins

Best Case Scenario = I’d like a 3-4-5 lineup of Wells, Hunter, and Abreu if we were going into the 2003 season. Abreu and Hunter are players in decline, and it’s unclear whether Wells will be out to prove detractors of him wrong, or if he’s content to be living in a warm climate. The bullpen is also a major concern. To call Fernando Rodney scary doesn’t begin to do a typical 9^th inning by him justice.

Outlook = The bullpen is a major eye sore. I’ll predict a record of 82-80. While I’m here, I’ll also predict a vigorous pursuit of Albert Pujols next offseason.

2. Oakland Athletics

A-Level = CL Andrew Bailey

B-Level = CF Coco Crisp, SP Dallas Braden, SP Brett Anderson, SP Trevor Cahill, SP Gio Gonzalez

C-Level = C Kurt Suzuki, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, LF David Dejesus, RF Josh Willingham, DH Hideki Matsui, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Grant Balfour

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 85 wins

Best Case Scenario = Oakland doesn’t have any stars, but they are blessed with a solid rotation. Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez have the skill set to be future leads of a pitching staff, and Cahill and Braden are reliable workhorses. Even their fifth starter, Brandon McCarthy, has looked good in spring training. Oakland also has the luxury of having plenty of arms in the bullpen. If they can find a way to manufacture runs, this can be a potential tough out in a first round playoffs series.

Outlook = I like Oakland to hang with Texas all year, but ultimately their sub-par offense will do leave them short. Look for 86-76.

1. Texas Rangers

A-Level = 2B Ian Kinsler, 3B Adrian Beltre, LF Josh Hamilton, RF Nelson Cruz, CL Neftali Feliz

B-Level = DH/UT Michael Young, SP C.J. Wilson, SP Colby Lewis

C-Level = SS Elvis Andrus, SP Tommy Hunter, SP Derek Holland

Ceiling = 95 wins

Floor = 80 wins

Best Case Scenario = One of the most enjoyable teams of the mid-90s were the Cleveland Indians. The statistics they put up in the strike shortened 1995 season were ridiculous. The team went 100-44. Albert Belle hit 50 home runs and 52 doubles in a 144 game season (he wasn’t on steroids or anything, no chance). Manny Ramirez was his second banana, smacking 31 homers and driving in 107. That Indians group also got all-star numbers from second baseman Carlos Baerga, Eddie Murray, Jim Thome, and the best base stealer at that time, Kenny Lofton. The offense was so good, Charles Nagy was able to go 16-6 with a 4.55 ERA.

            Why is anything of this relevant? Because if everything falls into place, Texas is capable of producing similar offensive firepower. Substitute Josh Hamilton for Belle, Cruz for Ramirez, Beltre for Jim Thome, and Kinsler as a mix between Lofton and Baerga, and you have the same team. Unless Texas makes a move mid-season to acquire an ace, it will be their offense that carries them.   

Outlook = I don’t expect Texas to win at a .694 clip like that Indians squad did, but I do expect them to win 89 games. That should be enough to capture the AL West.

Accounting for Wainwright and Round 5 of the Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

            I had Adam Wainwright ranked as the 3^rd pitcher that should be taken in standard fantasy leagues this season (and had him as the 23^rd overall pick), but sadly he has to undergo Tommy John surgery and will be lost for the season. Rather than reset the entire draft from the point of where he was originally taken, I’ve instead moved starting pitchers up one slot earlier than they were originally chosen. It’s not perfect, but it still reflects the order I think starters should be chosen. Here’s the updated list of pitchers taken in the first 4 rounds.

Roy Halladay, PHI, 1-9

Felix Hernandez, SEA, 2-20

Tim Lincecum, SF, 2-23

Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 3-25

Zack Greinke, MIL, 3-30

Cliff Lee, PHI, 3-31

Jon Lester, BOS, 3-35

C.C. Sabathia, NYY, 4-37

Ubaldo Jimenez, COL, 4-40

Josh Johnson, FLA, 4-45

Justin Verlander, DET, 4-48

            Just looking at that group, wouldn’t you be happy with any of those guys as your fantasy staff ace? It probably makes sense to wait on pitching until the middle of the 4^th round. Now, on to the 5^th round…

5-49 = Ichiro, OF-RF, Mariners – Seattle’s offense was so historically terrible that Ichiro only scored 74 runs despite posting a .315 batting average. Despite that, this is a great spot to grab a career .331 hitter who should swipe at least 35 bases.

            Team 1 Roster = Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Ichiro

5-50 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers – Beltre is a scary dude to draft. The only time he has ever hit over .300 in his career is when he is playing for a new contract (2004 with the Dodgers and 2010 with Boston). The one major factor this time around is instead of signing with a team with a gigantic park (Seattle), he’s going to play half of his games in one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. You probably won’t see me make this pick on draft day, but due to the position he plays (and lack of talented 3B left on the board), grabbing Beltre here is justified (just don’t grab him by the head, he’ll punch you in the face).

            Team 2 Roster = Miguel Cabrera (I’ll explain why I haven’t adjusted the draft for him later), Tim Lincecum, Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Adrian Beltre

5-51 = David Price, SP, Rays – Currently in ESPN.com live drafts, Price is being chosen around the 70^th pick. I think people are very concerned about the free agent losses the Rays are going to have to deal with, as well as the overcrowded AL East. Even if the Rays are sub par, I don’t see that having a dramatic impact on Price’s stats or development. This is a guy that posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while pitching a great deal of his games against the Red Sox and Yankees (for comparison’s sake, Jon Lester posted a 3.25 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, and he went 16 picks earlier).

            Team 3 Roster = Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, David Price

5-52 = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – Exhibit A of my theory that if you don’t get one of the top middle-infielders within the first 25 picks, you might want to wait until later in the draft to address the middle infield. Weeks put up 29 homers last season, but his 184 strikeouts show he is a candidate to have a miserable season (think .230 batting average with 200 Ks).

            Team 4 Roster = Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin Soo Choo, Josh Johnson, Rickie Weeks

5-53 = Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins – Morneau is still feeling effects from a concussion he sustained in July, but at least he is participating in Spring Training drills. This is a great spot to take a guy who put up a 1.055 OPS while healthy in 2010.

            Team 5 Roster = Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Ian Kinsler, Jose Bautista, Justin Morneau

5-54 = Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees – Exhibit B of why you either need to take a middle infielder early or punt until the later rounds. You know runs will be there, but do you really want to use a 5^th round pick on a guy who put up a .270-10-67 line last season?

            Team 6 Roster = Evan Longoria, Ryan Howard, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Derek Jeter

5-55 = Jayson Werth, OF-CF-RF, Nationals – Werth is vastly overpaid in real life, but that doesn’t mean you should shun him from your fantasy team. He should form a great 1-2 punch with Ryan Zimmerman.

            Team 7 Roster = Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Jayson Werth 

5-56 = Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies – Pitched great during the second half of 2010 despite very poor run support. It’s pretty amazing that three Phillies starters went in this mock by the 56^th pick.

            Team 8 Roster = Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Dan Uggla, Cole Hamels

5-57 = Brian McCann, C, Braves – If you had to bet on one catcher to hit between 20 and 25 home runs and drive in 80+ runs, this is the guy.

            Team 9 Roster = Roy Halladay, Mark Teixeira, Andrew McCutchen, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian McCann

5-58 = Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs – Ramirez was on my fantasy team last year, and let me tell you he was terrible. However, a thumb injury was largely to blame for his struggles during the first half of the season. I fully expect Ramirez to bounce back to a line of around .290-27-105, with potential for more due to his impending free agency after the season. 

            Team 10 Roster = Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez

5-59 = Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox – In the post-steroids era, guys that hit 40 home runs don’t grow on trees anymore the way they used to. This makes Dunn, who has hit between 38 and 46 home runs every season since 2004, a valuable commodity despite his very high strikeout rate.

            Team 11 Roster = Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Jon Lester, Buster Posey, Adam Dunn

5-60 = Carlos Santana, C, Indians – Santana was well on his way to a stellar rookie season before a devastating leg injury at Fenway park (I’d post a video link to it, but the people running Major League Baseball are stuck in 1974 and don’t see the value of letting fans view classic highlights and moments. Because you know, that might boost fan interest. Someone tell me again why Bud Selig still runs baseball?). Santana posted a remarkable .401 OBP in 46 games, with a walk to strikeout ratio of 37-29. Patience like that for a rookie is remarkable. Santana has all the tools to become the best catcher in baseball.

            Team 12 Roster = David Wright, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Carlos Santana

            Which of these teams is off to the best start? Let me know what you think in the comments section below this article.